Mat Hope
18.12.2014 | 11:45amThe price of fossil fuels remains the main driver determining the UK’s energy mix, new government statistics show, despite renewables increasingly covering large power station outages.
We take a look at the Department of Energy and Climate Change’s latest quarterly energy trends statistics.
More gas power
The UK’s gas generation increased significantly from July through September compared to the three months before, as gas prices continued to fall. At the same time, a slight increase in renewable generation helped to cover a power gap left by the unexpected closure of two nuclear power plants in August.
Both factors significantly altered the face of the UK’s electricity generation in the third quarter of 2014.
Gas accounted for 38 per cent of the UK’s electricity generation in the third quarter, eight per cent more than in the previous three months, and 12 per cent more than at the same point a year ago. That meant companies burned a lot more gas than in the previous quarter – about another million tonnes of oil equivalent.
Source: Data from the Department of Energy and Climate Change. Graph by Carbon Brief.
Coal generation fell from 27 per cent of generation in the second quarter of 2014 to 20 per cent in the third quarter, about 13 per cent less than in the same three months a year ago.
Companies have been increasingly choosing to ramp up gas power rather than coal, as gas prices have continued to fall over the last 12 months:
Source: Average price paid by UK power producers for coal, oil and natural gas, Department of Energy and Climate Change.
Nuclear’s share of electricity generation fell from 22.5 per cent in the second quarter to 21 per cent in the third quarter as a consequence of two power plants closing due to structural faults. At the same time, renewables’ share increased slightly from 17 per cent to 18 per cent. That meant low carbon energy sources’ share of generation stayed reasonably stable, at about 39 per cent across both quarters.
Import dependency
The amount of energy the UK imported rose to 48 per cent in the third quarter of 2014, its highest level since the second quarter of 2013. But the rise in dependency was less to do with the need to import more, as a drop off in domestic supply.
Source: Net import dependency, Department of Energy and Climate Change
Imports actually fell slightly, from 38.2 million tonnes of oil equivalent in the second quarter of 2014, to 38 million tonnes in the third quarter. At the same time, the UK’s fuel supply, mainly from the North Sea, fell from 46 million tonnes of oil equivalent to 43 million tonnes.
Fossil fuel dependency fell to the lowest levels ever, as the UK’s low carbon capacity continues to grow. But the UK still relies on fossil fuels for 83 per cent of its energy.
Demand
The reason the UK could import less despite a drop off in supply was because overall energy demand, that includes heat as well as power, dropped by seven per cent in the third quarter, compared to three months before.
This was partly due to the mild autumn weather. The average number of heating degree days plummeted from 3.1 in the second quarter of 2014, to 0.62 in the third quarter.
Source: Data from the Department of Energy and Climate Change. Graph by Carbon Brief.
Electricity demand also fell, from 82,000 GWh to 80,000 GWh, meaning the UK’s power stations didn’t have to burn as much fuel.
The statistics show the UK’s energy system is transforming, with renewables increasingly picking up the slack. But fossil fuel prices and the weather still remain the most important factors in determining the carbon intensity of the UK’s energy mix.