EU leaders are worried. Might Russia pull the plug on gas supplies to Europe arriving via Ukraine, like it did in  2006 and 2009?

Russia’s price dispute with Ukraine and its $400 billion deal to supply gas to China for the next thirty years has focused minds. President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso told a conference in Brussels yesterday that the Ukraine crisis was the biggest threat to European peace and security since the fall of the Iron Curtain. Geopolitical “games” were being felt particularly acutely in energy, he said.

So in part, the Ukraine crisis explains why EU heads of state were asking for an EU energy security strategy to be drawn up back in March, when Russia was annexing Crimea. So how will the EU tackle the great Russian bear? We peek at a leaked draft of the EU energy security strategy to find out.

Why is Russian gas a big deal?

The EU imports over half the energy it consumes at a cost of more than €1 billion per day. Two-thirds of its gas is imported, with nearly a third coming from Russia. Half of that is transported via Ukraine.

Barroso said “energy must not be abused as a political weapon”. So the EU doesn’t plan to impose sanctions on Russian energy imports, and it has written to President Putin asking nicely for the gas taps to be kept on.

Just in case, the leaked energy security strategy says member states should prepare for disruption to gas supplies this winter by boosting stocks and testing their vulnerability. The UK government has already decided UK gas supplies are resilient and so it won’t pay for more gas storage.

Playing nicely

The leaked strategy says member states should integrate their energy systems through market reforms, interconnectors and supergrids so that they can share energy easily in the event of a crisis. A single European energy market is supported by all the main UK political parties.

The EU should also try to get gas from different sources, the strategy says. Six EU member states get all of their gas from Russia. The UK is doing better. It doesn’t use any Russian gas –  most of its supplies come from Norway and Qatar.

The strategy calls for more home-grown energy. This includes renewables, due to provide 20 per cent of energy demand in 2020 and 27 per cent in 2030 if existing targets are met and proposed targets accepted.

But home-grown energy also includes “fully exploiting” existing oil and gas reserves and exploring “clean coal”, according to Barroso. The energy security strategy does say coal only has a long term future in the EU if it comes with carbon capture and storage, however.

The strategy steers clear of controversy over shale gas and nuclear energy. Barroso said these are options that member states can explore if they wish.

Greenpeace and other NGOs say a more ambitious renewables target would be a more effective way to curb the need for imports. They’d like a stronger focus on energy efficiency too.

Demanding lower demand

After all, one of the best ways to reduce our reliance on Russian energy imports is to use less energy – and that would help tackle emissions too.

President Barroso said he agrees:

“Reducing energy demand is a fundamental precondition for limiting our energy dependenceâ?¦ energy security and decarbonisation are actually two sides of the same coin.”

But the leaked draft strategy doesn’t contain any new energy efficiency policies. The European Commission was already reviewing a 2020 target to boost energy efficiency by 20 per cent and will publish its findings over the summer.

The strategy says this target will only be met if relevant laws are implemented “rigorously and without delays” and calls for more public spending on retrofits to make buildings more efficient. The UK is making slow progress on insulating older homes.

The commission is reported to be considering tougher energy efficiency targets for 2030. But the UK and others are opposed to this.

Overall, the strategy reveals the limits to the EU’s power. Its member states’ energy priorities are too diverse and their energy systems too different to make joint priorities easy to agree.

For instance while the UK wants the EU to butt out of energy policy, Poland wants an ‘ energy union‘ able to drive a hard bargain – like China – over gas prices with Russia. But opposition from some member states and the expected rise of Eurosceptic parties in today’s elections make this seem unlikely.

The EU energy security strategy doesn’t look like it’ll take a rifle to that Russian bear just yet. But with a tweak to address vulnerability here and a spotlight on energy dependence there it may just help the EU avoid a mauling – and drive an ambitious EU 2030 climate and energy deal too.