Is the government’s climate change advisor arguing internally over how many onshore wind turbines the UK needs?

The Times today reported that Lord Deben – who heads the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) – thinks the UK already has enough onshore wind power in the pipeline to hit its targets. The paper claims Lord Deben’s statement puts him at odds with the CCC. But the CCC and Lord Deben tell us that’s not the case.

2020 targets

The Times’s headline today declared that “Britain has enough wind turbines”. It based the statement on an interview with Lord Deben.

The EU requires the UK to get 15 per cent of its energy from renewable sources by the end of the decade. Referring to that commitment, Lord Deben told The Times “we have already got enough onshore wind to 2020 to meet that part of the portfolio.”

That seems right. The government’s renewable energy roadmap suggests the UK will need around 13 gigawatts of onshore wind in 2020 to meet its commitment.

Its latest data suggests there’s a total of 16.1 gigawatts of onshore wind in operation and in the pipeline.

The data shows there’s currently seven gigawatts of onshore wind online (the dark blue chunk), and 12.5 gigawatts under or awaiting construction and in the planning process (light blue). That’s a total of 19.5 gigawatts. The government assumes around 3.4 gigawatts of that won’t get built (the green chunk) as some projects will fail to secure financing or hit other complications.

Still, as Lord Deben suggests, 16 gigawatts would be more than enough to meet the government’s 2020 target.

Beyond 2020

So where’s the conflict?

The Times says Lord Deben’s comments “appeared to contradict forecasts by his own Committee on Climate Change (CCC) [the advisory body he chairs] of a tripling in the number of wind farms by 2030 – equivalent to almost 10,000 more turbines”.

But here the CCC and its chair are on the same page.

The CCC’s modelling suggests the cheapest way for the UK to keep its legally binding emissions reductions pledge is to ramp up onshore wind power, from 15 gigawatts in 2020 to around 25 gigawatts in 2030. That’s slightly more than the government originally aimed for, but a gigawatt less than it’s anticipating coming online.

If you assume wind turbines aren’t going to be any more efficient by 2030, that would require installing 15,700 turbines by 2030 – about 10,000 more, or about triple the 4,400 turbines installed today.

As the CCC acknowledges, that’s just a recommendation that the government may choose to not take. In a written response, it told Carbon Brief, “beyond 2020, there is a choice about how to decarbonise the power system”.

Lord Deben agrees. He told Carbon Brief:

“It’s a factual position. We have, in the pipeline, sufficient onshore wind up to 2020 to meet our portfolio requirements in 2020. What happens beyond that is a different matter, and that will be a decision made by future governments”.

So Lord Deben, the government, and the Committee on Climate Change all agree: the UK has enough onshore wind power in the pipeline, for now.

Whether or not the UK would be able to meet a more demanding 2030 decarbonisation target is another matter, and depends on what happens after 2020.

Earlier this month the Conservatives – Lord Deben’s party – said they would put a moratorium on new onshore windfarms in their manifesto.

The party also successfully fought off attempts to insert a target requiring the government to curb energy sector emissions by 2030 in last year’s energy bill, a measure the CCC and Lord Deben supported.

Those political dynamics could explain any reticence on Lord Deben’s part about committing to the future of onshore wind beyond 2020. Nonetheless, that debate is yet to come – as Lord Deben and the CCC both seem to realise.