Guest post: What would an ambitious ‘global goal on adaptation’ look like at COP28?

The impacts of climate change are already being felt by both humans and ecosystems, with extreme weather events and record-high temperatures becoming increasingly frequent and intense. 

Established in the Paris Agreement, the global goal on adaptation (GGA) is designed to “ensure an adequate adaptation response” to protect people, livelihoods and ecosystems as the world aims to keep warming “well below” 2C or even to 1.5C.

However, intergovernmental negotiations on implementing the GGA have been bumpy and slow going. 

Areas of disagreement include the setting of ambitious and measurable adaptation targets, how to track adaptation progress and support for increased adaptation. 

In a recent policy brief article, we set out the need for robust, ambitious and time-bound targets for adaptation actions. These targets could cover adaptation planning, support and implementation for key sectors and systems, including food, health, water, ecosystems, infrastructure, cities and livelihoods. 

The COP28 summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), is crucial for achieving consensus on putting the GGA into action, as the Glasgow-Sharm El Sheikh work programme on operationalising the GGA is expected to conclude at the talks with establishment of a GGA framework. 

Already, the issue has proven contentious in negotiations, with developing countries pushing for greater focus on climate adaptation finance as part of the goal.

Putting the GGA into operation would set a clear signal for increased ambition and action on adaptation support and implementation.

Operationalising the GGA

The first step in tackling climate change impacts through the GGA is achieving political consensus on adaptation targets and the finance, technology and capacity-building support for achieving them. 

Our research suggests this process should draw on recent scientific assessments, such as the IPCC’s sixth assessment report, UN Adaptation Gap reports and national-level submissions to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), such as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), national adaptation plans (NAPs) and adaptation communications (AdComs). 

Targets could have quantitative or qualitative elements, or both, but need to be measurable, time-bound and ambitious, given the acceleration of adaptation actions required this decade to minimise loss and damage. 

A second step is a further programme of work to develop metrics and indicators for tracking progress against the targets. Political progress on establishing targets better enables technical work for tracking adaptation progress, through monitoring and evaluation of adaptation actions. Progress towards the global goal through further work could then be collectively captured and reviewed under the global stocktake (GST) process to track progress together with other goals under the GST globally.

A similar programme of first establishing political agreement on targets and then requesting further technical work on indicators to track progress has been followed by other multilateral target-setting processes, including the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction.

To initiate development of the GGA framework and to guide its achievement, countries that were signatories to the Paris Agreement created the Glasgow-Sharm el-Sheikh work programme on the GGA at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. It will  consider a structured framework, including different “dimensions” of an iterative adaptation cycle – shown below. 

Support in terms of finance, capacity-building and technology transfer should be a consideration under each dimension with a view to enhancing adaptation action and support.

Governments have also agreed to consider targets for key systems and sectors – called “themes” in the GGA negotiations – where increased adaptation action is urgently needed.

The figure below shows the themes under which GGA targets can be implemented.

Other considerations of the framework include fully transparent approaches that are able to capture the issues – highlighted below – which cut across the dimensions and themes of the framework.

Setting ambitious targets 

A key part of the GGA framework will be establishing ambitious and measurable targets.

An overarching target for the GGA, for instance, could provide clarity for guiding adaptation investment globally by focusing on reducing climate impacts and risks – the outcome of effective adaptation. 

Our policy brief outlines a series of factors to consider when setting an overarching target, as well as individual targets for each of the four “dimensions” mentioned earlier. 

These suggestions – shown in the table below – focus on key elements of the GGA framework and are global in nature. 

They have been informed by the latest scientific assessments and reports of adaptation needs, including the IPCC, UN Adaptation Gap reports, academic literature and national adaptation documents such as NDCs and NAPs for Africa, as well as other multilaterally agreed targets such as the SDGs and the Sendai Framework.

Overarching target	Impact, risk and vulnerability target	Planning target	Implementation target	Monitoring and evaluation target
Guide adaptation action and support	Identify climate risks and hazards to reduce exposure	As of 2022, 84% of countries have at least one national-level adaptation planning instrument in place (AGR 2022)	Increase implementation that aligns with priorities to effectively reduce climate vulnerability, exposure, impacts and risks, and avoids maladaptation	Design, set up, or improve and/or implement MEL processes and systems in light of climate risk including integration of local and Indigenous knowledge, traditional and other vulnerable groups knowledge to enhance buy-in and ownership
Reduce climate risk	Assess vulnerability to existing and future climate hazards as basis for early warning system	Ensure all parties have developed national adaptation plans, strategies and policy instrument	Close the adaptation gap	Developing countries having equitable access to MOIs for MEL
Scale up adequate support for adaptation	Parties to use identified information to prioritise sectors for adaptation measure and develop a comprehensive adaptation plan	Increase inclusive planning and enhanced implementation of plans
Should inform the underlying premise of the framework – thus, reduce risk, plan better, enhance implementation and finance adaptation		Access to MOI to prepare and implement plans, including investment and integration across levels and sectors
Move towards resilience, improving adaptive capacity and reducing vulnerability related to long-term temperature goal

Factors to consider in developing targets for the GGA dimensions. Source: ACDI (2023)

Theme targets

Of the adaptation “themes” set out in GGA negotiations, we suggest targets for six of them, as published in our recent policy brief and below:

Health: Achieve universal health coverage by 2030 and eliminate global climate-related mortality and morbidity by 2040.

Ecosystem and biodiversity: By 2040 maintain the resilience of biodiversity and ecosystems services at the global scale by achieving effective and equitable conservation of 50% of Earth’s land, freshwater, and ocean areas, including near-natural ecosystems, substantially increase restoration and effective ecosystem-based adaptation, and avoid mitigation measures that damage ecosystems.

Food and agriculture: Achieve food security and end malnutrition in all forms by 2030, despite climate change, and substantially reduce adverse climate impacts on food and agricultural production and productivity, and the entire agriculture value chain by 2040.

Cities, settlements and infrastructure: Ensure resilience of cities, settlements and key infrastructure to climate change by 2040, including by considering climate change impacts and risks in the design and planning of all human settlements and infrastructure, and substantially increasing deployment of integrated social, ecological and grey/physical infrastructure that reduces vulnerability of people, especially in informal settlements and coastal settlements.

Water: Achieve universal access to safe and affordable drinking water by 2030 and substantially reduce climate-induced water scarcity by 2040 including improving water use efficiency and reducing exposure and vulnerability of water and sanitation systems to climate hazards.

Poverty and livelihoods: Increase resilience and substantially reduce adverse climate impacts on livelihoods as a share of a country’s total population by 2040, including through integrating climate change adaptation into social protection programmes supported by basic services and infrastructure. 

These proposed targets are global in nature and could set the course for increased adaptation actions while allowing countries to align actions with nationally identified adaptation priorities. 

Setting time-bound and measurable targets would further strengthen calls to support implementation and enhance tracking of progress to sustain adaptation actions.

What next for the GGA?

Developing countries are already experiencing widespread loss and damage from climate change underscoring the vital importance of the GGA. 

Key considerations that will make the GGA relevant include the ability of a strong GGA framework to catalyse adaptation finance and actions; the potential of the GGA to close the existing adaptation gap that so far is widening for the global-south regions; and, finally, a GGA that avoids maladaptation. 

At COP28, a meaningful outcome for the GGA would include agreement on ambitious, measurable and time-bound targets for the dimensions and themes, as well as the finance, technology transfer and capacity building as appropriate means of implementation for the GGA. 

A GGA with a strong focus on reducing climate change impacts and risks is all the more pressing considering that the window of opportunity to limit global warming to 1.5C is closing fast and risks may emerge earlier than projected. 

Decisions made at COP28 would, hopefully, launch further work on indicators and methodologies for tracking progress on achieving the targets and the means of implementation. 

Our recommendations include support for the evaluation of how much adaptation finance each developing country needs. This could help to ensure sufficient financial support from developed countries for adaptation – something that has been insufficient up to this point.

We also suggest that more global climate funds could be set aside to plan, implement and assess adaptation progress.

Other recommendations include reducing the reporting burden for developing countries, establishing the need for comprehensive datasets and providing technical support for developing countries from bodies such as the IPCC.