Guest post: China’s wind and solar potential is ‘nine times’ that needed for carbon neutrality

In September 2020, China pledged to peak its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2030 and achieve “carbon neutrality” by 2060.

In a new study, published in Carbon Neutrality, we explore whether China has sufficient wind and solar potential, given that decarbonising its energy system will be key to meeting its climate goals.

At the end of 2020, China’s installed capacity for wind and solar power was 280 and 250 gigawatts (GW), respectively. While China aims to increase the combined total to 1,200GW by 2030, some research institutions believe that 6,000GW – more than 10 times the current level – is required to achieve carbon neutrality.

To assist policymakers’ understanding as to whether this is technically possible, we systematically assessed the potential of wind and solar power in China, based on high-resolution climate data.     

We found that the technical potential of current wind and solar technologies in China is about 56,550GW, some nine times the level needed for carbon neutrality.

Carbon neutrality

In order to avoid dangerous global warming and meet the temperature control goals set out under the Paris Agreement, many countries have proposed net-zero or carbon-neutrality targets. In September 2020, China announced dual climate goals of peaking CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

Meeting both goals will require China to decarbonise its energy system. In 2020, CO2 emissions from energy consumption accounted for 87% of China’s total emissions. In the same year, energy sourced from non-fossil fuels accounted for just 15.9% of total energy consumption. 

As of end-2020, the installed capacity of wind and solar power in China was 280GW and 250GW, respectively. At the United Nations Climate Ambition Summit in December 2020, President Xi Jinping proposed that the total installed capacity of the two renewables in China should more than double to over 1,200GW by 2030. According to some China-based research institutions, the installed capacity of wind and solar power will need to reach 6,000GW – more than 10 times the current installed capacity – to achieve carbon neutrality.

This calculation has led to debate among policymakers over whether China has the wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) power potential to meet its carbon-neutrality targets.

To answer this question, we systematically assessed the technological potential of wind and solar PV power generation in China, based on high spatial-temporal resolution climate data.

The climate data was supplemented with information on the location of nature reserves and urban areas, on the slope of the land, on relevant government policies and on the expected cost of site-appropriate wind or solar equipment.

This enabled us to refine the theoretical potential – based only on wind speeds or solar irradiation – into a realistic technical potential that excludes protected or urban areas, as well as locations where wind or solar installations would be unlikely to generate an economic return.

High resolution 

In this paper, we used an assessment methodology based on “geographic information system” data to investigate China’s wind and PV power generation potential.

First, we calculated grid-scale wind and solar potential by combining the characteristics of standard wind turbine and PV modules, with high spatial-temporal resolution climate data. Then, we factored in technical, policy and economic constraints to better evaluate and refine our findings.

While China has long been known for being “rich in coal, but lacking in oil and gas”. Based on our findings, we suggest that this expression deserves an addendum referencing the country’s rich renewables potential, particularly in wind and solar energy.

With current technology, China’s wind and PV installed capacity potential is about 56,550GW, approximately nine times that required under the carbon-neutral scenario.

The geographical distribution of this potential is shown in the figure below, where high wind speeds (left) and high solar irradiation (right) is denoted by orange and red shading.

According to our work, the technical wind and PV power generation potential of China is 95,837TWh annually, nearly 13 times the national electricity demand of China in 2020, as shown in the table below. (This potential is also nearly four times the current global electricity demand.)

By the end of 2020, the installed capacity of wind and solar power in China represented less than 1% of its technical potential; of which wind-power installations were capable of generating 280GW, less than 2.6% of the technical potential; and PV installed capacity was 250GW, equivalent to less than 0.6% of technical potential.

China’s wind and PV power potential and electricity demand in 2020

Regional grid	Province	Potential capacity (gigawatts)						Power potential (TWh)		Electricity consumption (TWh)
		Wind	Onshore wind	Offshore wind (Near/Far)	PV	Central PV	Distributed PV	Wind	PV
Northeast	East Inner Mongolia	619	619	0	923	835	88	1,744	1,296	63
	Heilongjiang	706	706	0	301	149	152	1,937	394	101
	Jilin	304	304	0	356	243	113	861	466	81
	Liaoning	289	176	113 (80/33)	191	17	174	777	238	242
Northwest	Gansu	321	321	0	2,758	2,682	76	718	4,128	138
	Ningxia	82	82	0	282	253	29	241	391	104
	Qinghai	186	186	0	3,914	3,886	28	379	6,491	74
	Shaanxi	165	165	0	372	298	75	448	458	174
	Xinjiang	618	618	0	21,198	21,054	144	1,293	29,265	300
North	Beijing	0	0	0	61	2	59	0	72	114
	Hebei	334	281	53 (53/0)	338	59	279	988	587	393
	Shandong	596	296	300 (178/122)	417	21	395	1,636	552	694
	Shanxi	127	127	0	311	194	117	364	439	234
	Tianjin	15	11	4 (4/0)	42	0	42	42	50	88
	West Inner Mongolia	2,078	2,078	0	8,537	8,395	142	5,399	12,871	327
Southeast	Chongqing	43	43	0	22	1	21	108	3	119
	Guizhou	109	109	0	104	76	28	296	105	159
	Sichuan	223	223	0	157	75	82	621	182	287
	Tibet	524	524	0	3,332	3,327	4	1,375	6,177	8
South	Guangdong	677	141	536 (220/316)	202	19	182	1,977	257	693
	Guangxi	250	181	69 (69/0)	187	101	86	708	222	203
	Hainan	246	45	201 (41/160)	29	10	19	563	33	36
	Taiwan	10	10	0	28	0	28	/	/	/
	Hong Kong	0	0	0	3	0	3	/	/	/
	Yunnan	132	132	0	115	60	55	374	159	203
Central	Henan	291	291	0	303	14	289	869	377	339
	Hubei	206	206	0	157	33	124	558	188	214
	Hunan	174	174	0	91	9	83	462	96	193
	Jiangxi	152	152	0	97	27	70	423	109	163
East	Anhui	225	225	0	233	11	222	679	280	243
	Fujian	321	32	289 (159/130)	91	18	73	957	102	248
	Jiangsu	441	177	264 (242/22)	302	5	297	1,200	372	637
	Shanghai	55	10	45 (36/9)	38	0	37	150	51	158
	Zhejiang	429	50	379 (113/266)	112	4	108	1,163	121	483
National		10,948	8,694	2,254	45,604	41,878	3,726	29,308	66,529	7,511

The designations employed in this table do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Carbon Brief concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Source: Wang et al. (2022).

The technical potential of onshore wind energy in China totals about 8,690GW, with wind energy potential essentially tracking the available resources (measured at an elevation of 100 m), according to the climate data. Technical potential of onshore wind power in Northeast, Northwest, and North China (the Northern Regions) accounts for 69% of the total. Central, East and South China (Central-Southeast) account for the remaining 31%.

The technical potential of offshore wind energy resources at 100 m in China is about 2,250GW. Guangdong province has the largest technically exploitable offshore wind power, at 536GW, followed by Zhejiang, Shandong, Fujian, Jiangsu and Hainan. The technical potential of offshore wind power in each of these provinces is greater than 200GW, while that in Guangxi, Hebei, Shanghai and Tianjin is less than 100GW each.

The technical potential of centralised PV power in China is about 41,880GW, with potential again tracking the spatial pattern of solar resource endowment. The Northern Regions account for 91% of the total. Centralised PV power in Central-Southeast China accounts for the remaining 9%.

The technical potential of distributed PV power in China is about 3,730GW, with the Northern Regions accounting for 51% and the Central-Southeast area taking 49%.

Scientific foundation 

Our paper provides a data-based, scientific foundation for formulating mid- and long-term renewable energy plans at the national and provincial scales.

In addition, governments at all levels can draw upon the supporting data to guide carbon peaking and neutrality schedules, roadmaps and construction plans.