Reports yesterday claimed the President of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, was thinking of  dropping plans to extend the EU’s renewable energy target.

His words sparked a minor controversy, as they came the same day as two European Parliament committees voted to keep the target. Not wishing to be left out, eight European ministers also quickly fired off a letter to the commission, calling for it to extend the EU’s renewable energy commitment.

So why are European policymakers squabbling over what was once seen as a landmark policy?

Member state interests

The EU’s climate targets aren’t set to expire until 2020, but policymakers have committed to extending them to 2030 by the end of next year.

Currently there are three targets: to reduce emissions, increase renewable energy generation, and implement energy efficiency. The EU’s member states are divided over whether extending the renewable energy target is a good idea, however.

The EU currently requires national governments to implement policies to get 20 per cent of their energy from renewable sources by 2020.

Critics – including the UK government – say the target is an inflexible way to meet the EU’s related emissions reduction goal. UK energy secretary, Ed Davey, has called on the EU to abandon the renewable energy target so countries can reduce emissions by investing in other low carbon technologies, such as nuclear power.

That’s put the UK at odds with some other nations, however – including the EU’s largest member state: Germany.

Germany is currently embarking on an ambitious policy programme which it hopes will allow it to get 80 per cent of its energy from renewable sources in 2050. If the EU doesn’t extend the renewable energy target, it could complicate matters for Germany both politically and legally.

European law prohibits countries from supporting one specific technology over others unless it can be shown to align with the EU’s larger goals – in this case, increasing the EU’s share of renewable energy. If the target isn’t extended, the European Commission could rule that Germany’s far-reaching renewable energy subsidies are illegal.

It’s unclear how likely that is, however.

The so-called state aid rules are vague and reviewed on a case-by-case basis, giving countries some wiggle room. For instance, the UK’s new nuclear deal is currently being investigated by the European Commission, but the UK government remains confident it won’t fall foul of the rules – though that could partly depend on the EU dropping its current renewable energy target.

So Germany’s renewable energy subsidies could persist even if the target is scrapped, but the stakes are high.

That’s put the European Commission in a difficult position. It either has to risk Germany’s ire, or face up to further alienating the UK. Yesterday’s events suggest that – for now – the commission is aligning itself with the UK’s position.

Barroso’s legacy

Barroso isn’t putting his lot in with the UK for no reason; there’s a personal slant to all this, too.

The European Commission will undergo a mass change of personnel in the Autumn, meaning Barroso will be out of a job. Barroso pledged to make climate change the focus of his second term when he got re-appointed in 2009. As such, he’s reportedly willing to sacrifice the extension of the renewable energy target if it means securing agreement on a new emissions reduction target before he leaves.

And it’s not just Barroso who’s concerned about his legacy. The EU’s climate commissioner, Connie Hedegaard is also said to be intent on locking down the target before she leaves her post in August.

As such, a compromise measure seems to be emerging where the commission backs the extension of a non-binding renewable energy target, in exchange for agreement on the emissions reduction target.

A non-binding target could allow the commission to claim it has taken the advice of the European Parliament, without fully committing countries to continue ramping up renewable energy generation. It could also allow Germany to continue supporting renewable energy through its current subsidy schemes.

The ministers’ letter to the commission on Thursday – from representatives of Germany, France, Italy, Denmark, Belgium, Austria, Ireland and Portugal – pointedly didn’t mention whether or not they wanted the target to be binding or otherwise.

Long way to go

While Barroso’s statement is the strongest indication yet that the renewable energy target could be dropped, there’s still a lot of politicking to be done.

EU policymakers won’t make a final call on the new climate targets until October 2015. Until then, the commission, parliament, and member states will all be jostling to get their opinions heard.

The commission is set to release a statement on January 22nd outlining its position in more detail. The parliament will then have another vote on the matter in the first week of February, before member state ministers have their say on March 21st.

After all that, a decision still won’t have been made – but it will give an indication of which way this particular squabble is likely to eventually go.