Welcome to Carbon Brief’s DeBriefed. 
An essential guide to the week’s key developments relating to climate change.

This week

Cyclone Chido ravages south-east Africa

DEVASTATING STORM: Hundreds or even thousands of people were feared dead after Cyclone Chido hit the French overseas island territory of Mayotte and then continental Africa, Reuters reported. At least 69 people have been confirmed dead across Mayotte, Mozambique and Malawi, according to Al Jazeera. More than 1,400 people had been injured in the storm and about 8,000 people had taken shelter in schools, the New York Times reported. France will observe a day of national mourning on Monday, reported Le Monde.

POOR DATA: Cyclone Chido is the most intense storm to hit Mayotte in 90 years, the Associated Press reported. The storm carried winds of at least 140mph (225km/h) when it reached Mayotte, which lies between Mozambique and Madagascar, the Guardian said. Scientists have long suggested that climate change is making cyclones worse in the region, but a lack of weather data has hindered more conclusive claims, the Associated Press said.

Coal use to climb in 2024

NEW HEIGHTS: The world’s coal use is expected to reach a new high of 8.7bn tonnes this year and could remain at near-record levels until 2027, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Guardian reported. The newspaper added that the IEA blamed power plants, particularly in China, for the growth. Bloomberg reported that the IEA’s latest forecast “overwrites last year’s estimate that coal demand would begin a steady decline this decade”.

MOVING ON: Meanwhile, the IEA notes that in developed economies, such as the US and the EU, coal power generation continued to see a steady decline and is forecast to fall by 5% and 12%, respectively, in 2024, the Guardian reported. A new Carbon Brief analysis revealed that the number of proposed coal plants in the 38 mainly developed members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has decreased from 142 in 2015 to five today – a 96% drop.

Around the world

• NEW PLEDGE: The Biden administration has committed the US to cutting its emissions by 61-66% below 2005 levels by 2035 in a “significant update” to its climate plans, the New York Times reported. However, it adds that the pledge will “almost certainly be disregarded” by the incoming president Donald Trump.
• MAKING CONNECTIONS: A new report published by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) said governments are underestimating the link between biodiversity, water, food, health and climate change, BBC News reported. Carbon Brief also covered the findings.
• NO DEAL: The UN desertification COP16 summit hosted in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia ended without an agreement on a legally-binding response to drought, the Financial Times reported.
• ARID CONDITIONS: A drought has been linked to the death of 80 elephants at the Madikwe Game Reserve in South Africa, the Mail and Guardian reported.
• RENEWABLE POWER: The IEA said tapping less than 1% of Africa’s potential for enhanced geothermal systems could meet the continent’s electricity needs in 2050, Semafor reported.
• FOSSIL PHASEOUT: The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved California’s “landmark plan” to end the sale of petrol-only vehicles by 2035, Reuters reported.

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8 million

The number of homes in England that could face flood risks by 2050, according to the UK’s Environment Agency, the Financial Times reported. This means one in four English homes could be at risk of flooding by the middle of the century. The government body said 6.3 million homes already face flood risk in England.

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Latest climate research

• Major declines in Antarctic sea ice in 2023 increased ocean heat loss and storm frequency in previously ice-covered regions, a new study in Nature found.
• A new paper in the International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control found that the global cement sector could produce “net-negative” cement and meet its 2050 carbon neutrality target early if bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is integrated into cement operations.
• A new study in Science found that more than half of Alaska’s population of common murres, also known as common guillemots, died during an “extreme” marine heatwave event over 2014-16, with an estimated four million of the seabirds lost.

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Captured

The number of new coal plants under development in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) region has reached record lows since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, according to the latest data from Global Energy Monitor’s Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT). Proposed coal-fired capacity in the OECD has fallen from 142 in 2015 to just five today, shown in the map above.

Spotlight

Unpacking the political economy of Africa’s energy transition

This week, Carbon Brief reports from a conference in Chicago on how Africa can transition to low-carbon energy and boost access to electricity.

Earlier this month, a panel of academics convened at the African Studies Association conference in Chicago to discuss the political economy of Africa’s energy transition.

The conference papers highlighted the role of national governments, resource endowments, and sovereignty in the continent’s adoption of non-hydro renewable energy.

Africa’s energy transition is contested. Amid the continent’s energy poverty – at least 600 million people live without electricity – calls for the defunding of fossil fuel projects have been met with sharp criticism.

While Africa’s significant solar and wind resources mean it does not have to follow the high-carbon practices of the past to produce electricity, funding for clean energy on the continent remains starkly inadequate.

‘Politicised’ decisions

One of the papers presented at the Chicago conference, focusing on Tanzania, noted that decision-making around energy projects is routinely politicised.

While the east African country has long pushed to diversify its energy mix, the ruling party has often prioritised projects with short-term deliverability and impact.

Focusing on solar and wind energy projects can be viewed as “politically risky”, said Dr Rasmus Hundsbæk Pedersen, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies and one of the paper’s authors.

The scenario is similar in Ghana where politicians have turned to fossil fuel sources as quick fixes to the problem of energy security, paying less attention to sustainability or decarbonisation – issues that are less popular with voters.

Meanwhile, the discovery and development of gas reserves in Tanzania and Ghana has inspired a nationalist pushback against the notion of abandoning fossil fuels.

This is despite analysis showing that a push to reach net-zero by 2070 in Ghana by deploying renewables, low-carbon hydrogen, electric vehicles and clean cookstoves could present a $550bn international investment opportunity and create a net 400,000 jobs. 

Countries that are rich in fossil fuels generally push for using such fuel sources for their power sectors, while others are more open to developing renewable energy capacity.

For example, Kenya, an African country with limited fossil fuel resources, has become one of the world’s fastest-growing developers of geothermal energy. 

Moving forward with renewables

Given the political weight of energy security in Africa, Pedersen said that pushing for non-hydro renewable energy should fit into the dominant ideas about development held by African political elites.

In his opinion, this could include the use of gas “in the short to medium term”, but he added “there is discussion” about “how to use it in the best way”.

Dr Matthew Tyce, a researcher at King’s College London who has studied the role of the Kenyan government in geothermal energy development, told Carbon Brief that African countries need to be “cautious about adopting the kinds of institutional configurations that are often promoted by international actors”, which emphasise market-based solutions.

He also urged international donors and development finance institutions “to be less dogmatic about promoting modes of energy transition that rely disproportionately on private investment”. 

The Asian model

For Anne Marx Lorenzen, a PhD candidate researching the sustainability of Chinese and Japanese renewable energy projects in Cambodia, Indonesia and Ethiopia, global north countries can learn a lot from the Asian approach.

By working with the Ethiopian government’s developmental vision, China and Japan have invested heavily in the country’s energy resources, becoming a viable alternative to global north partners, Lorensen argued in a paper presented at the conference.

The global north “needs to listen more to our African partners and what they want their own development trajectory to be”, Lorensen told Carbon Brief, adding: “I think in the past, we’ve been focused on setting terms and conditions, focused on liberalisation and privatisation.”

Tanzanians “want an energy transition that recognises their energy access and security needs”, Dr Japhace Poncian, a senior lecturer at the Mkwawa University College of Education, said. He added: “Ensuring access to energy is a primary goal and this does not care much about the greenness of the source.”

Watch, read, listen

ENVIRONMENT ADVOCATES: The New Yorker‘s Elizabeth Kolbert highlighted Vauatu’s role in the International Court of Justice’s decision to rule on climate change.

EV REVOLUTION: In a new edition of Sinica, host Kaiser Kuo discussed China’s rapid surge in electric vehicle manufacturing, adoption and export with Illaria Mazzocco, deputy director and senior fellow with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

A NEW WORLD: During a trip to South Africa, United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, said Africa needs financial, climate and technological justice.

Coming up

• 29 December: Croatia Presidential elections, Croatia
• 15 January: Oil Market Report launch, IEA.
• 16 – 17 January: First Sustainable Finance Working Group Meeting, G20.

Pick of the jobs

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• Tameside Metropolitan Borough Council, Climate and Energy Officer | Salary: £38,626-£43,693. Location: Tameside, Greater Manchester.
• Octopus Energy, Energy Specialist | Salary: £24,300. Location: Central Brighton.
• Grist, Climate News Fellow | Salary: $58,750. Location: US.

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to [email protected].
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