The world’s leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise to at least 2.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, “blasting past internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences for humanity and the planet”, reports the Guardian in a story featured on its frontpage. According to a survey of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scientists conducted by the publication, almost 80% foresee at least 2.5C of global heating. Of these, almost half anticipate at least 3C of global warming, while only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C limit would be met, it continues. Many of the scientists envision a “semi-dystopian” future, the article adds, with famines, conflicts and mass migration driven by heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms “of an intensity and frequency far beyond those that have already struck”. Experts expressed their frustration, saying they had been left feeling hopeless and scared by the failure of governments to act, despite the clear scientific evidence, it notes. In an accompanying piece in the Guardian, the experts surveyed share more on their views. The article quotes climate scientist Ruth Cerezo-Mota, who tells the publication: “Sometimes it is almost impossible not to feel hopeless and broken. After all the flooding, fires and droughts of the last three years worldwide, all related to climate change, and after the fury of Hurricane Otis in Mexico, my country, I really thought governments were ready to listen to the science, to act in the people’s best interest.” (See Comment below for the Guardian’s editorial on the survey findings.)

A new study has found that Europeans want governments to focus more on curbing immigration than on climate change, with less than 15% of those interviewed considering climate issues to be among the top three priorities for their government, reports the Associated Press. “Many European countries have seen a sharp rise in the share of people who say that ‘reducing immigration’ should be a top government priority,” said the study commissioned by the Denmark-based thinktank Alliance of Democracies Foundation, the article continues. Globally, 33% of those surveyed said they believe climate change is one of the world’s three main challenges, it adds. Of those surveyed, Germany was “in the lead” with 44% of people wanting their government to focus on reducing immigration, while nearly a quarter of the Germans surveyed listed tackling climate change as a priority, the article adds. About a quarter of Germans cited immigration as their top priority in 2022, rising to 44% in 2024, while about a third were more concerned with climate change two years ago, falling to 25% now, reports Deutsche Welle. The survey was carried out in 53 countries, representing more than 75% of the world’s population, and looks at attitudes to democracy, government priorities and international relations, it adds.

Australia will expand its extraction and use of gas until “2050 and beyond”, despite global calls to phase out fossil fuels, reports BBC News. Prime minister Anthony Albanese’s government says the move is needed to boost domestic energy supply while supporting transition to net-zero, it continues. However, critics have argued the move is a rejection of science and pointed to the International Energy Agency’s call for “huge declines in the use of coal, oil and gas” if the world is to meet climate targets, it notes. In addition to supporting domestic energy, the policy is based on Australia’s “commitment to being a reliable trading partner”, the article adds, as the country is one of the world’s largest exporters of liquefied natural gas. The strategy has been developed by the centre-left government after it faced criticism for a range of short-term measures taken to boost gas supply and drive down soaring prices in 2022 in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine, reports Reuters. In addition to committing to gas beyond 2050, the plan lays out ways for Australia to reduce its emissions, such as leasing more offshore acreage for carbon capture and storage projects, it adds.

London’s Thames Barrier is due an upgrade to help it continue to protect the city from sea-level rises and more powerful storms, writes the Financial Times. Marking the barrier’s 40th anniversary, the article explores its development following a tidal surge in 1953 which killed 300 people. Originally designed to last until 2030, the Environment Agency (EA) is now confident it will continue to operate until 2070, protecting “the Houses of Parliament, the O2 Arena and Tower Bridge from tidal surges, as well as protecting 116 railway and Tube stations, 300km of major roads and £321bn worth of residential homes”, the article adds. The EA is planning greater defences in the coming decades under the Thames Estuary 2100 plan, reports BBC News. This includes raising flood walls and defences along the Thames downriver of the barrier by half a metre by 2040 and by the same amount to the west by 2050, it adds. An editorial in the Times dubs the barrier a “quiet British success story”, saving lives and protecting billions of pounds of real estate over the past 40 years. Along with other measures, the EA is looking at a new higher obstacle downriver to tackle rising sea levels in 2070, “at which point this usually sleeping giant can retire after almost a century of service”, the article finishes. In a comment piece in the i newspaper, environment columnist and University of Exeter associate professor James Dyke looks at why April was “wet and miserable”, but still the “warmest on record”. 

Kenya has declared a national day of mourning following the deaths of 238 people in floods this year, reports the Associated Press. The day will be observed by national tree-planting activities to help mitigate the impact of climate change, it continues. The heavy rains across Kenya and other parts of East Africa led to many being overwhelmed by floods, with 235,000 people displaced and living in dozens of camps, the article states. The Kenyan government is in the process of “forcefully evacuating people living in flood prone areas”, as well as those who live near rivers and dams as water levels in the country’s major hydroelectric dams have risen to “historic levels”, the article adds. The worst affected areas by the floods were the Mathare and Kiambiu slums in the capital Nairobi, where 550,000 people live, reports the Daily Telegraph. In other Kenyan news, environmentalists have continued their 15-year legal battle to stop the expansion of a road inside the Aberdare Forest, reports Inside Climate News. Conservationists have argued that the expansion will harm the forest, wildlife and water supplies, it adds.

Brazil’s government has announced an investment of 1.3bn Brazilian reals ($255m) to improve the infrastructure of Belém city, which is set to host the UN’s COP30 climate negotiations in 2025, despite facing challenges, such as road infrastructure and sanitation, reports O Globo. Meanwhile, there is continuing widespread coverage of the flooding in Brazilian states of Rio Grande do Sul with Reuters reporting that the disaster has left “150,000 homeless [and] scores dead or missing”. Bloomberg says the flooding has caused “historic devastation, with more rain coming”, while the Financial Times says “economic damage is so far estimated at about $1bn, according to the National Confederation of Municipalities”.

Separately, the Guardian reports that “hunger and disease are rising in Latin America after a year of record heat, floods and drought, a report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has shown”. In other news from Latin America, El Universal says that a second heatwave will cause 11 Mexican states to reach temperatures above 45C. El Financiero reports that high temperatures led Mexico’s electricity grid to go into a state of emergency for one hour last week due to an increase in demand, according to the national energy control centre. Meanwhile, two provinces in Peru have declared a state of emergency due to heavy rains, El Comercio reports. It adds that, according to Peru’s official gazette, the declaration will allow the government to establish response and rehabilitation measures for the areas affected by rainfall over 60 days, ending on 29 June. 

Elsewhere, an analysis by the organisation Fundación Ambiente y Recursos Naturales has found that, if Argentina’s senate were to approve the so-called Bases bill, it would bring “negative effects”, such as the possible cancellation of funds for the protection of native forests, according to elDiarioAR.

Finally, La Tercera covers two studies published in international scientific journals that analyse the cost of climate change in Chile, noting that the mega-drought that has affected the country over the past 10 years has “cost more than $1bn”. The Chilean newspaper adds that another study projects losses from climate change of around $50bn for Chile, equivalent to around 15% of the South American country’s current GDP.

Chinese state news agency Xinhua reports that car sales reached nearly 6.4m units between January and April 2024, growing 9% year-on-year, with nearly 2.5m of those units being “new energy” vehicles (NEVs), sales of which rose 35% year-on-year. State-backed newspaper China News quotes Xiao Xinjian, director at the Xi Jinping Economic Thought Research Center, saying that NEV demand could grow by 150m units under China’s target of carbon neutrality by 2060. The Financial Times reports that Chinese car dealers are “ditching foreign brands” and turning to domestic NEV makers that are “gobbling up market share at a blistering pace”, adding that the dealers who continue to focus on traditional fuel vehicles “have been suffering steep falls in profits”. Economic outlet Yicai reports that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the French government have agreed to cooperate on “green development and ecological transition”. State-run outlet Reference News quotes German federal minister for digital affairs and transport Volker Wissing saying that “we don’t want to close off markets [to Chinese NEVs], we want to participate in competition”. Reuters reports that BMW head Oliver Zipse has warned against EU import duties on Chinese-made NEVs, saying that “we don’t think that our industry needs protection”. State-run newspaper China Daily quotes Justin Yifu Lin, a leading Chinese economist, saying that China’s clean-energy technology “boast[s] the highest quality and the lowest production costs”. 

Meanwhile, energy news outlet BJX News reports that China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has issued draft rules for the lithium battery industry to encourage companies to “adjust [their] energy consumption” and “use clean-energy sources such as solar”. Bloomberg notes that the rules “appear aimed at slowing the breakneck expansion of its battery industry”. BJX News reports that the NDRC has released supervisory measures for China’s electricity market, quoting one government official saying they will create a “multi-level unified electricity market system, remove market barriers and promote fair and unified market supervision”.

Finally, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post has published an editorial arguing that, amid rivalry with the West, China is seeking the “right energy mix” to ensure its security and self-reliance. The Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily carries an comment article under the nom de plume Zhong Caiwen, which is linked to the party’s Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, saying that overcapacity complaints “ignore the benefits that Chinese products bring to global consumers and the role they play in promoting global industrial upgrading”.

Responding to its survey of IPCC scientists (see above), an editorial in the Guardian argues that “we cannot afford to despair” about climate change. The article highlights that there is “good news”, as almost two-thirds of people worldwide believe the climate crisis is an emergency, “we know what needs to be done and thanks to the rapid advance of renewable technologies it is achievable”. But, with soaring temperatures and extreme weather events devastating the world, the “future can feel overwhelming and unfixable”, it continues. In the face of this, it is important to “build collective awareness, a sense that change is possible and momentum for wider systemic progress”, the editorial continues. It concludes: “Just as climate tipping points exist, so do social tipping points. It is imperative to hit the latter as fast as we possibly can.”

Meanwhile, a comment piece in the Guardian by Guy Singh-Watson, founder of organic veg box company Riverford, examines “the scary truth about what’s happening to our crops”. He explores the growing threat of climate change and argues that, to have any chance of a “robust green transition and consequent food security”, British farmers need an average 20% price rise.

Elsewhere, there is a raft of EV-based comment pieces following the news that the UK has hit a 60,000 EV charge point milestone, as reported in yesterday’s Daily Briefing. In the Daily Telegraph, climate-sceptic columnist Matthew Lynn argues that the “electric car carnage has only just begun”, while a separate piece in the Daily Telegraph by Sir Jim Ratcliffe, founder and chairman of INEOS Group, states it is time for a “rethink” as “demand for electric cars has dried up”. He proposes a new type of vehicle: “electric cars fitted with petrol-powered range extenders”. In the Times, industrial editor Robert Lea focuses on automotive company Ford’s refusal to “shift into electric gear”. (See Carbon Brief’s “Factcheck: 21 misleading myths about electric vehicles.)

The transport of ocean heat through the narrow and shallow Bering Strait exerts a more substantial influence on Arctic warming than previously recognised, according to new research. The study uses high-resolution models to examine this key but uncertain component of model projections of Arctic warming. The paper finds a 20% larger rate of warming in the Arctic from 2006-2020 compared with standard low-resolution models, which they attribute primarily to four-times higher ocean heat transport through the Bering Strait. For this reason, the authors warn that the projected rate of Arctic warming by low resolution climate models is “likely to be underestimated”.