The world is on the brink of a fourth global mass coral bleaching event which could see many tropical reefs killed by extreme ocean temperatures, including parts of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tells Reuters. “It’s looking like the entirety of the southern hemisphere is probably going to bleach this year. We are literally sitting on the cusp of the worst bleaching event in the history of the planet,” Derek Manzello, the coordinator of NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch, which serves as the global monitoring authority on coral bleaching risk, tells the newswire. It explains: “Triggered by heat stress, coral bleaching occurs when corals expel the colourful algae living in their tissues. Without these helpful algae, the corals become pale and are vulnerable to starvation and disease.” It comes as the Guardian reports that coral bleaching is now hitting the world’s most-southern coral reef, Lord Howe island, which is part of the Great Barrier Reef. (Carbon Brief previously took an in-depth look at how coral bleaching could threaten the survival of the Great Barrier Reef.)

“Green development” was a major focus of the government “work report” released yesterday at the “two sessions”, reports Chinese financial outlet Yicai. The article quotes experts as saying that “the work report reflects” the need for continued momentum in the energy transition, and that “China should set reasonable goals to make use of renewable energy and accelerate the marketisation of feed-in tariffs for producers of low-emission energy”. Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily says that a “consensus” has formed at the two sessions that “green development is the foundation of high-quality development”. Economic outlet Jiemian notes that this year’s work report is the first to mention “new energy storage”, a category primarily made up of batteries. The state-run China Daily quotes Zhang Xingying, a member of the national committee of the Chinese people’s political consultative conference (CPPCC) and China’s representative on the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), as saying that countries need to “adhere to a multilateral process” to achieve the goals of Paris agreement. 

Meanwhile, Axios covers research by the Atlantic Council, which says the US and allies should develop a “joint, balanced approach to managing competing goals [with China on electric vehicles (EVs)]”. The Daily Telegraph reports that 80 car carrier ships were ordered in 2023 to meet “demand for shipping capacity from China”. In his regular Bloomberg column, BloombergNEF’s Colin McKerracher says that electric or fuel cell heavy-duty trucks accounted for 10% of December sales in China, despite the fact that “heavy trucks were supposed to be one of the hardest segments to electrify”. 

Separately, Beijing News reports the US and China organised a conference on cooperation in “green ports and low-carbon shipping” in California. People’s Daily carries a commentary under the nom de plume “zhong sheng” – which signals support from the leadership – saying that the US and China should “meet halfway” to implement the “consensus reached” in talks last year in San Francisco. Reuters reports that Russia and China are “jointly working” to put “a nuclear power plant on the moon”.

China Daily covers research finding that China is on track to “achieve its wind and solar power targets despite global economic uncertainties”, and is set to “install more than 200 gigawatts (GW) of new solar and wind capacity in 2024”. State news agency Xinhua quotes research by the thinktank Bertelsmann Stiftung saying that China has made a “rapid rise…to become one of the leading research nations in green technologies”. A commentary in People’s Daily explores the advantages and necessary steps to “shift from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions”.

US president Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump look set for a rematch in the second-largest emitting country’s November election, Sky News reports. The pair dominated nomination contests on the day when most states choose who they think should run, known as “Super Tuesday”, the broadcaster says. The Times reports that Trump told Fox News that he would “take all restrictions off fossil fuel production imposed by Biden to mitigate climate change” if elected to power. Bloomberg speaks to a US environmental group about its analysis showing that millions of US registered voters that say they care about climate change have historically chosen not to vote in elections. “The climate movement doesn’t have a persuasion problem as much as we have a turnout problem,” Nathaniel Stinnett, from the Environmental Voter Project, which aims to convince climate-conscious people to vote, tells Bloomberg. 

Several publications cover new research finding that the Arctic could see its first “ice-free” summer day within the next few years. The Press Association reports a study in the journal Nature Reviews Earth and Environment found that the earliest ice-free day “could occur in the 2020s to 2030s, under all scenarios for the amount of greenhouse gases humans put into the atmosphere, and is likely going to occur by 2050”. It adds: “The researchers said all previous predictions for an ice-free Arctic focus on the monthly average conditions for September, but their analysis shows it could happen on a daily basis, rather than for the month as a whole, years earlier.” The Guardian, Daily Mail and Hill also cover the findings. (Carbon Brief previously published an in-depth feature on when the Arctic is likely to see its first “ice-free” summer.)

Ahead of the UK’s next “budget” being announced this afternoon, the Daily Mirror reports on calls for the government to cut VAT on electricity from public electric car charging points. The motoring group FairChange tells the Daily Mirror that people who charge their electric vehicles at home only pay 5% VAT on their bills, but the 38% of the population without driveways have to use public chargers and pay the full VAT rate of 20%, presenting a “charging injustice”. “The cost to the Treasury would be very small compared to the hundreds of billions spent supporting fuel duty, but the benefit to EV drivers without private parking and to urban air quality would be significant and remove this unnecessary barrier to EV adoption,” Quentin Willson, a car journalist who runs FairChange, tells the newspaper. 

Elsewhere, the Times reports that corporate demand for electric vehicles has helped to boost new car sales overall in the UK, according to new data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. It says: “In February battery electric vehicle sales accounted for 17.7% of the market compared with an average of 16.5% for 2023 as a whole. The number of electric cars sold in the year so far is up 2,600 to 14,990, a rise of nearly 22% on the same period last year.” But Mike Hawes, chief executive of the group, tells the Times that the prime minister should do more to encourage private EV ownership, arguing that the government had put up a “triple tax barrier” to adoption. The Times says: “In the budget on Wednesday, the SMMT wants the chancellor to reverse proposed excise duty changes that treat upmarket electric cars as luxuries rather than essentials, and which will attract a near £2,000 increase in car tax; change the VAT paid at public recharging points for electric cars from the 20% at present to put it in line with the 5% paid by those who can charge at home; and cut the 20% VAT that new car buyers have to pay on electric cars when other green technologies such as heat pumps and solar panels attract no VAT at all.” The Guardian and Daily Telegraph also cover the car figures, with the latter focusing on how sales of EVs for private ownership have fallen by a fifth in the first two months of this year compared to last. [Many private buyers purchase EVs under “salary sacrifice” schemes that count as company cars.]

Staff at the European Central Bank are “in revolt” after an executive said new recruits had to be “reprogrammed” to ensure they supported climate policies, the FT reports. It explains: “The ECB’s staff committee has called for the bank’s president Christine Lagarde and her top team to rethink their management style in a letter, seen by the Financial Times, which complains about the ‘disrespectful’ comments made by an executive board member at a meeting last month. The move highlights rising dissent among ECB staff against their bosses, who have made tackling the risks of climate change a priority for the central bank.” According to the FT, Frank Elderson, who joined the ECB in late 2020, told an internal meeting: “Why would we want to hire people whom we have to reprogramme because they came from the best universities but they still don’t know how to spell the word ‘climate’.” The ECB tells the FT that Elderson supports diversity and that “his message that climate science should be considered in the ECB’s work directly reflects the bank’s strategy”. The story is also covered by the Daily Telegraph. Elsewhere, the Daily Telegraph also reports that EU green rules could see hotel shampoo bottles and restaurant sachets banned and that “ecoterrorists” have shut down a Tesla factory in Berlin.

The COP30 global climate talks in 2025 are expected to drive 40bn Brazilian reals ($8bn) of investment in Pará state, O Globo reports. The newspaper notes that investment will mostly target works under a new growth acceleration program. It says the state will also receive loans from bodies such as the Inter-American Development Bank. The outlet adds that the sustainable use of the Amazon “will be one of the central themes” of COP30.

In other Latin American news, Peru’s minister of health, César Vásquez, says that nearly 18,000 cases and 32 deaths from dengue fever have been reported in the country this year, 95% more than in 2023, according to El Comercio, which adds that March and April are expected to be the worst months. Roberto Carrasco, an epidemiologist and director of research at the Faculty of Health Sciences at Continental University, tells the outlet that climate change “may influence the distribution and prevalence of dengue fever”.

Elsewhere, Mexico’s presidential candidates have outlined their proposals for this year’s election, journalist Yuriria Sierra writes in a comment piece for Excélsior. The piece does not mention any climate proposals by Xóchitl Gálvez and Jorge Álvarez Maynéz, candidates of the right-wing opposition parties and centre-left party, respectively. However, Sierra notes that Claudia Sheinbaum, candidate of the currently governing left-wing party, proposes a national water plan and redoubling “the speed of the energy transition in the country”.

Finally, with El Niño weakening and potentially ending in autumn this year in Chile, Raúl Cordero, a climatologist at the University of Santiago, and Patricio González, a professor of agroclimatology at the University of Talca, project the arrival of La Niña, which could last three years and lead to decreasing rainfall and the return of megadrought conditions, reports La Tercera. Colombia’s El Espectador reports that drought is reducing water in reservoirs as water consumption surges in Bogotá. This is causing concerns because El Niño’s impacts are still affecting the city, the newspaper says.

An editorial in the Guardian says progressive parties in Europe must stand up for a more “globally responsible” EU amid growing extremism from conservative parties. It says: “Europe’s centre-left should vigorously make a case for levels of investment and support appropriate to the scale of the challenges being faced – through common EU borrowing instruments if necessary. A new economic orthodoxy is needed in Brussels to address insecurities which have created a sulphurous political mood. If the green deal, for example, is not to unravel, money will need to be found to reassure voters that they will be supported through the transition.”

Elsewhere, a column by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph challenges an analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility that says that ambitious climate measures “should probably be seen as a means to produce GDP in a less environmentally damaging way rather than a way of producing more GDP”. Evans-Pritchard says: “Really? The International Monetary Fund and the International Energy Agency estimate that it would lift global GDP growth by 0.4% a year over the course of this decade if executed with panache. World output would be 4% bigger in real terms by 2030. Cambridge Econometrics estimates that the UK would gain 2% extra GDP over that period…If anything, Britain would gain more than most since it has a) a costly reliance on imported gas, b) the worst housing insulation in western Europe, and c) successful clean-tech and green finance sectors that stand to profit from cluster effects.” A Financial Times piece by columnist Martin Wolf examines how China’s excess savings could be a “danger”. He says: “[I]f the savings rate remains this high, China needs to offset the inevitable decline in the rate of property investment with something else. What might that be and how might it happen? An obvious and desirable solution, which is in fact already happening, is a huge expansion in investment in renewable energy. The benefits for the global energy transition would be enormous. The question is how large this investment might be and for how long it will last.”

Elsewhere in the Daily Telegraph, energy writer and “fossil-fuel industry insider” David Blackmon says that electric trucks are “even stupider than electric cars”. A column in the FT says that a Chinese electric sports car with a starting price of $230,000 plans to take on western car companies.

Climate change drives population growth in lizards, a new modelling study finds. However, it adds that deforestation could reverse this population growth for 66% of simulated populations and exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change in 18%. The authors use a “biophysical model” to explore how tree loss might affect lizards under current and future climates. In a research briefing on the study, the authors explain that “when trees are present, most populations are predicted to benefit from the warmer conditions”. However, they add that “lizards thermoregulate less effectively without trees, thus limiting activity time and the length of the activity season, leading to population declines”.