US presidential candidate Donald Trump’s Project 2025 plan would gut climate policy and boost fossil fuels, potentially setting back global efforts to tackle climate change for decades, reports Rolling Stone. Trump is holding steady in the polls, pledging to boost oil and gas production, being vocal about his scepticism of climate change and his resistance to boost renewable energy, in a shift from his 2016 campaign when climate change was virtually ignored, the article notes. Trump’s Project 2025 plan would see him dismantle President Biden’s climate initiatives such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), as well as roll back regulations designed to reduce power plant and vehicle emissions, it adds. One of the most significant impacts of a Trump presidency could be adding 4bn tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions by 2023, compared to Biden’s plans to cut emissions by 50-52%, Rolling Stone says, citing analysis from Carbon Brief. Climate change got one question in Thursday’s presidential debate between Trump and Biden, the first head-to-head meeting of the candidates since 2020, reports Grist. They were asked whether they would do anything to address climate change if elected, with neither responding directly to the question, it notes. Biden pointed to a number of policies enacted during his time in office including the IRA, while Trump said his presidency saw “the best environmental numbers ever”, Grist says, adding: “In truth, Trump rolled back more than 200 environmental policies during his four years in office.” Democratic governor of Massachusetts Maura Healey told the Financial Times that another Trump presidency would be “devastating” for US offshore wind. “We know Donald Trump’s position on [offshore] wind…He is going to do everything he can to make sure that industry is killed, and that there are further giveaways to oil and gas,” she told the publication. 

Elsewhere in US news, the supreme court has “dealt a blow” to the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) regulation on air quality, dubbed the “good neighbour” plan, reports the Washington Post. The major initiative, designed to improve public health by reducing smog-forming pollution from power plants and factories that blow over state lines, has been put on hold, it continues. This is the third time in as many years that the courts conservative majority has challenged the EPA’s power to regulate pollution, following rulings in 2022 and 2023 targeting its ability to limit greenhouse gases and protect wetlands from runoff, it adds. Under the “good neighbour” plan, factories and power plants in the western and midwestern states would have to cut ozone pollution that drifts into eastern ones, where the emissions cause smog that is linked to asthma, lung disease and premature death, reports the New York Times. The court’s ruling is provisional, but will still see the plan suspended for many months, it notes. The plan was paused in light of developments in lower courts according to Justice Neil Gorsuch, part of the five-four majority who voted it down, the article adds. Justice Amy Coney Barrett, part of the minority, said the decision “leaves large swaths of upwind states free to keep contributing significantly to their downwind neighbours’ ozone problems for the next several years,” reports CBS News.

China is expected to see the price of offshore wind power fall below that of coal-generated electricity “for the first time this year”, following the government’s approval of numerous renewable energy projects, says Bloomberg. Citing Chinese industry news outlet BJX News, the outlet says a “306-megawatt (MW) wind farm off Shanghai” has been officially approved to provide electricity at “27% below the coal power price benchmark”. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post covers new research finding that gas is unlikely to serve as a “transition fuel” in China, due to the “faster-than-expected progress and cost competitiveness” of renewable energy. BJX News reports that state-owned energy conglomerate China Energy Engineering Corporation is developing the world’s “largest new energy storage base”, with a capacity of 3060 MW. Climate newsletter Shuang Tan reports that a court in China recently “ruled in favour of climate activists in a lawsuit against a local coal power plant” on the basis of “ecological loss”, although it “did not support [a claim] regarding the damages caused by the coal power plant’s excess carbon emissions”. 

Agence France-Presse says that climate change activists “protested at Chinese embassies in 10 countries” to urge China not to finance the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP). African news platform allAfrica reports that 37 activists in Uganda have been arrested for protesting the pipeline. The China Global South Project also covers the story, saying “Chinese banks and insurers are financiers of ‘last resort’ for TotalEnergies”. 

Elsewhere, at the Summer Davos meetings, “industry experts and former top government officials” said that “new energy development should be shared and the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment should be renegotiated”, the state-run newspaper China Daily reports. The state-supporting newspaper Global Times quotes an executive at solar module manufacturer JinkoSolar, saying that “protectionist measures taken by Europe and the US…will only increase their green transition costs, but will not affect our determination”. The Financial Times reports that “thousands of Chinese engineers and technicians are struggling to obtain Indian visas”, while Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD “failed to secure permission to expand in the subcontinent”. Chinese outlet Yicai reports that Chinese mining company Ganfeng Lithium is suing the Mexican government for “revoking its mining rights”, which the country did “as part of a new drive to nationalise [its] lithium reserves amid soaring global demand”.

Finally, state news agency Xinhua reports that an executive meeting of China’s top administrative body, the State Council, called for China to “promote construction of pilot zones for a Beautiful China” and “strengthen coordinated efforts to reduce pollution and carbon emissions”. And Chinese newspaper the Economic Observer reports that the government recently organised a seminar on hydrogen development. 

Wildfires are “once again ravaging the Arctic Circle” according to the EU’s climate change monitor Copernicus, reports BBC News. In a statement, Copernicus said higher air temperatures and drier conditions in Sakha, Russia, have created the ideal conditions for wildfires “once there is a spark”, it adds. The region’s deputy minister of ecology, management and forestry was quoted by Russia’s state news agency Tass stating that as of 24 June, more than 160 wildfires affected nearly 460,000 hectares of land, it continues. This is the third time in the past five years that high intensity fires have swept across the Arctic, BBC News notes. Scientists are concerned that smoke from the wildfires will hinder the ability of Arctic ice to reflect solar radiation, meaning both the land and sea absorb more heat, the article continues. Prof Gail Whiteman from the University of Exeter tells the outlet that the Arctic is “ground zero for climate change”, adding: “The increasing Siberian wildfires are a clear warning sign that this essential system is approaching dangerous climate tipping points. What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay there,…[these fires are] a warning cry for urgent action.”

In other wildfire news, a new report has found that Canada’s wildfires last year released more carbon dioxide (CO2) than India did by burning fossil fuels, reports the Guardian. Scientists at the World Resources Institute and the University of Maryland found that the months-long fires in Canada in 2023 released around 3bn tonnes of CO2, it continues. The fires, which covered an area of forest larger than the US state of West Virginia, emitted nearly four times the CO2 of aeroplanes in a year and about the same amount of CO2 as 647m cars, it adds. The update is not peer-reviewed, but is based on an original study that was, the Guardian notes.

Oil and gas giant BP has imposed a hiring freeze and paused new offshore wind projects to place a greater emphasis on oil and gas amid investor discontent, sources at the company have told Reuters. The changes are part of a move by its new CEO to slow down investments in big low-carbon projects that are not expected to generate cash for years, the article adds. Murray Auchincloss became permanent head of BP at the beginning of the year and is now trying to stem “investor discontent over the company’s switch to green energy”, reports the Daily Telegraph. Auchincloss took over the role “after the shock departure of his predecessor, Bernard Looney”, reports the Guardian. Looney had committed BP to some of the oil and gas industry’s “greenest climate goals”, but left the company last September after failing to disclose relationships with colleagues, it continues. Pausing new offshore wind projects and hiring in the department has stoked concerns that Looney’s plan to move the company away from fossil fuels to “become a net-zero company by 2050 or sooner” could be derailed, it adds. The shift forms part of Auchincloss’s plans to save at least $2bn in costs by the end of 2026, “as he tries to close the valuation gap with peers in the oil and gas sector”, reports the Times. BP will pursue more spending on new oil and gas assets, in particular in the Gulf of Mexico and the US Permian basin, it adds. The company will consider investing in biofuels and some other lower-carbon businesses that generate returns in the near term, and last week agreed to acquire a 50% stake in a Brazilian sugar and ethanol joint venture from grain trader Bunge, the Times notes. Auchincloss has promised to be more “pragmatic” in his approach to the clean energy transition than Looney, reports BusinessGreen. It quotes a statement from BP that said: “As Murray Auchincloss said in February, BP’s destination – transforming from international oil company to integrated energy company – is unchanged, but we are going to deliver as a simpler, more focused and higher value company. We set out six priorities that underpin this, including driving greater focus into the business, on to activities that create the most value, as well as delivering both the next wave of efficiencies and BP’s growth projects.”

The likelihood of heavy precipitation events in southern Germany “has significantly increased due to the climate crisis”, reports the German newspaper Der Spiegel. Historically occurring every 42 years on average, such events are now expected approximately every 30 years in the region, according to German Weather Service (DWD) analysis. In a scenario with global temperatures rising by 2C, similar events are projected to occur every 23-25 years on average, notes the outlet. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that a German court ordered that companies must clarify the term “climate neutral” in their advertising because the term remains “too vague for consumers to properly understand”. Readers may take it to mean that emissions have been reduced or phased out of a production process when it could simply refer to greater offsetting measures, the outlet says. 

Elsewhere, another story from Der Spiegel reports that the German government, after “tough talks” with the European Commission, plans to announce details of its gas power plant strategy. This will involve constructing five gigawatts of gas power plants each in 2025 and 2026 through competitive auctions, explains the newspaper. It adds that the gas power plants tendered in 2025 will adhere to specific EU guidelines for state aid related to climate, environmental protection and energy, and they are expected to transition to hydrogen earlier than those tendered in 2026.

Finally, Merkur reports that the EU Court of Auditors’ report, released this week, finds that while the European Union’s shift from “natural” gas to liquified “natural” gas (LNG) has averted immediate crises, it maintains the EU’s dependence on imported LNG, hindering both energy market stability and climate goals. The report emphasises the need for the EU to address challenges posed by increased reliance on LNG and the need to use carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS), notes the outlet. 

The idea of a “carbon budget” is becoming increasingly outdated and instead the focus should be on carbon debt – the amount of carbon that will “have to be removed by our children and future generations if we ever want to return to the climate of our past”, writes Dr Zeke Hausfather – climate research lead at Stripe and Carbon Brief climate science contributor – in his “Climate Brink” newsletter. There is a danger to “kicking the can down the road” with carbon debt, but there is no realistic carbon bankruptcy, as “Earth is our home and where we make our stand as a species”, argues Hausfather. He continues: “Our carbon debt ultimately leaves us with two options: either pay the price of adapting to the ravages of a hotter world – and acknowledge that large parts of the natural world will be lost in the process – or permanently remove enough carbon from the atmosphere to pay down the debt. And the more we emit before we get emissions down to zero, the more costly the carbon debt becomes.”

BP’s net-zero plans had made it a sector leader, but have yet to win over investors “while fossil fuels are booming”, writes the Guardian’s financial editor Nils Pratley. In response to BP chief executive Murray Auchincloss’s freeze on offshore wind, Pratley notes that the stock market is rewarding oil and gas companies that stick to their traditional territory. BP contrastingly had been in a “trust us” phase of financial territory, pursuing “five transition growth engines” which include biogas, electric vehicle charging points and hydrogen, he writes. However, “since it hasn’t actually built any windfarms yet, it is not in position to demonstrate achieved returns. Therein lies its credibility issue with the market”. Pondering where “Auchincloss go[es] next”, Pratley concludes: “As the continuity choice for the top job, radical change was never on the cards in year one. But you have to wonder what year two will bring. Would anyone be surprised if BP’s renewables ambitions were scaled back again? Increments add up, and Looney’s ‘no turning back’ mantra feels a long time ago.”

Elsewhere, retired academic Gordon Hughes – who has previously written reports for the UK’s largest climate sceptic group, the Global Warming Policy Foundation – argues in the Daily Telegraph that electricity bills would have to double by 2030 to achieve the Labour party’s goal of decarbonising the grid.

New research explores the role that social media has in “spreading narratives” about human-caused climate change. Collecting more than 330,000 tweets in English about climate change, the researchers use language processing and machine learning methods to cluster the tweets into four narratives according to their “semantic meaning”. Analysing the “behavioural dynamics of each cluster” reveals that the clusters “focus on the discussion of whether climate change is caused by humans or not, scientific arguments, policy and conspiracy”, the researchers say. The study notes that the anthropogenic and conspiracy clusters “reference websites that serve user content, such as YouTube, Rumble and WordPress”.

A new study suggests that methane removal techniques could be used to avoid overshooting the 1.5C warming limit. Using an adaptive emissions methane removal routine in a simple climate model, the researchers “successfully limit peak warming to 1.5C for overshoots of up to around 0.3C”. For substantially higher overshoots, methane removal alone is “unable to limit warming to 1.5C, but in an extreme scenario could limit peak warming by an ensemble median 0.7C if all atmospheric methane was removed”, the researchers say. Although, they add, this would require “huge levels of net removal” in the order of tens of billions of tonnes cumulatively.

“Outsourced carbon mitigation” between cities means that some “benefit from the carbon mitigation efforts of other cities more than their own”, a new study says. Focusing on 309 Chinese cities, the researchers quantify local and outsourced carbon mitigation levels from 2012 to 2017. The findings show that “240 cities (77.7%) were outsourced mitigation beneficiaries, of which 65 were strong beneficiaries (their local carbon emissions still grew) and 175 cities were weak beneficiaries (with larger outsourced mitigation efforts than local mitigation efforts)”. Strong beneficiaries were often “industrialising cities with more agriculture and light manufacturing”, the study says, while weak beneficiaries “were mainly at the downstream of supply chains with services and high-tech manufacturing”.