The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced that it will give $4.3bn to 25 projects to limit greenhouse gas emissions from transportation, electric power, commercial and residential buildings, industry, agriculture and waste and materials management, the Associated Press reports. It adds that the grants are being paid for under the 2022 US Inflation Reduction Act. Reuters says the grants will be distributed to winners by early autumn. It adds that combined, the projects would reduce greenhouse gas pollution by as much as 150m metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) by 2030, or roughly two percentage points. The New York Times outlines some of the projects that would be funded and the Washington Post notes that these details were shared with the media under embargo on Friday, and the announcement made publicly on Monday. Inside Climate News says that “the timing of the grants ensures that this part of President Joe Biden’s environmental legacy will remain intact even if Democrats fail to retain control of the White House or Senate after November’s election”.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post discusses where vice president and presumptive Democratic nominee for November’s election Kamala Harris stands on key political issues. It says: “Harris has long focused on fighting climate change in her political career. She created an environmental justice office as the district attorney in San Francisco. As California attorney general, she sued oil companies to curb pollution. And in the Senate, she signed on to the Green New Deal, the ambitious plan to speed up the transition to a clean-energy economy. When Harris ran against Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2020, she positioned herself to the left of him on climate. She advocated for banning fracking, while Biden did not go that far.” The New York Times highlights that Harris sponsored the Green New Deal and quotes a speech that she made at COP28 last year stressing the urgency of climate action. It adds: “The vice president incorporated climate change into foreign relations, holding a round table in Bangkok to connect environmental activists with clean energy experts and starting a partnership with Caribbean countries to address climate change. As a senator from California, the state that is at the forefront of climate policy, Harris promoted electrifying school buses to reduce greenhouse gases and to cut children’s exposure to diesel engine pollution. She also supported efforts to replace lead water pipes and promoted measures to help agriculture become more resilient to drought.” Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports that under Project 2025 – which is widely seen as a blueprint for a possible second Trump administration – the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which runs the National weather service, would be broken up. It says: “Meteorologists and climate scientists are voicing concern over what these proposals would mean for the millions of people they are working to inform and protect.” Forbes adds: “Trump promises to repeal regulations that protect the environment and reduce greenhouse gases, and to purge the EPA and most other government agencies of career employees, who he and his allies believe kept many of his extreme policies from being enacted in his last term.” BusinessGreen outlines Joe Biden’s climate legacy, reporting that he “has been showered with praise from leading environmental groups, following his shock decision yesterday not to run for a second term as president”. 

In other US news, the Guardian reports that “firefighters across the US west were battling to contain multiple blazes on Monday amid blisteringly high temperatures, including a wildfire that forced evacuations near Salt Lake City over the weekend and another that destroyed several homes in southern California”. According to the newspaper, the fires broke out on Saturday and were only 10% contained yesterday. The Associated Press reports that Riverside – a city 60 miles east of Los Angeles, which was damaged by the fire – reached temperatures of 38.9C on Sunday. Separately, the Guardian says that in Canada’s British Columbia, firefighters are battling more than 300 fires, more than half of which are “out of control”. According to the newspaper, thousands of residents are under evacuation alerts. Reuters reports that thousands of people who were forced to evacuate from eastern Canada last week as the result of a fire can not return home.

A United Nations taskforce has outlined its opposition to companies using offsets to “cancel out” their carbon footprints in a draft document seen by the Financial Times. According to the newspaper, the document says that companies “should not use carbon credits to offset emissions outside of state-regulated schemes”, and should invest in ways to cut their own emissions instead. It continues: “The UN draft document said: ‘Carbon credits used cannot be counted as their [polluters’] own emission reductions’ when purchased in voluntary markets outside of government-regulated schemes in which companies can trade permits giving them the right to pollute. The document was prepared by the UN task force on global carbon markets, a group convened by the UN secretary-general’s climate action team. The task force had input from leading UN agencies including the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which oversees the co-ordination of global efforts on climate issues, including at COP, the annual international climate gathering, where the development of carbon markets is a focus of attention. This year’s COP29 host country, oil and gas-producing Azerbaijan, has made the topic one of its priorities.” The newspaper says the draft puts the UN “on a collision course with big oil and technology groups”, as many rely on carbon offsets in their plans to fulfil climate promises made to their investors.

The new UK government’s push to decarbonise electricity supplies by 2030 should “be treated as a national mission, similar to the work of the vaccines task force or the switch from town gas to natural gas in a decade from the late 1960s”, reports the Press Association. It says that the public must be on board with the mission and have the benefits spelled out to them, according to a new report from the Royal Academy of Engineering. It continues: “The report from the independent working group warns there needs to be a sharp ramp-up of offshore wind, deployment of onshore wind and solar, and extending the life of nuclear plants where possible to meet the 2030 goal. But there will also be a role for gas, to support security of supply, the experts said, as they called for any new gas plants to be ‘genuinely’ ready to capture their carbon – for example being built in a location near where carbon capture and storage infrastructure will be built. The experts suggested that ‘clean power by 2030’ could see a fully zero carbon grid on about 75% of days, with a small role for gas on the remaining days.” The Guardian leads its coverage of the report with the line that the UK government may need to approve new gas-fired power stations on its path to decarbonising the electricity grid. The report says the government will need to take a “radical approach” to drive system and infrastructure transformation, according to reNEWS.BIZ.

Meanwhile, there is continued coverage of analysis by Cornwall Insight which shows that Britain is currently not on course to build enough wind and solar to meet the government’s 2030 target. The Guardian reports that “solar and wind power generation will fall well below the target needed to decarbonise Great Britain’s electricity grid by 2030 without an injection of £48bn”. The Times also covers the report.

In other UK news, the Times reports that “more than 1,100 lawyers, celebrities, academics and artists have called for an urgent meeting with the attorney-general to address the ‘injustice’ of the sentences handed to five environmental activists for peaceful protest.” The Financial Times follows reports by the Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday over the weekend, saying that Labour has signalled an “open-minded” approach to a third runway at Heathrow, as long as various tests are met. The newspaper says: “No runway expansion will be authorised unless it is compatible with meeting Britain’s climate targets, meets noise pollution and air pollution hurdles and provides economic growth across the country.” BusinessGreen reports that the government has “announced over £100m of funding to support cutting-edge projects that promise to slash emissions from the aviation industry”. The Daily Telegraph reports that “Historic England has changed its advice to encourage the installation of heat pumps on heritage properties for the first time”. The Daily Mirror says that a “French-style” electric car leasing scheme – in which the government “would subsidise a £100-a-month leasing scheme for poorer households so they can benefit from the cheaper running costs for electric vehicles” – could help to lift 500,000 people out of poverty. Reuters reports that “Britain’s insurers set out plans on Monday on how to channel billions of pounds freed up from their safety buffers into infrastructure such as EV charging stations to boost growth”. The Press Association says that climate groups and unions protested outside Tata Steel’s London headquarters on Monday, calling for a “just transition” to protect workers. BBC News covers a new report from Kew Gardens warning that more than half of its 11,000 trees could be at risk before the end of the century due to the effects of climate change. The Daily Mail and the Press Association also cover the report.

Reuters reports that the resolution for China’s “third plenum”, a 60-point policy document released after the conclusion of last week’s meeting, shows “no sign of imminent structural shifts” in China and paints a “future of state-led economic growth, innovation and security”. It adds that the government aims to “promote revolutionary breakthroughs in technology, innovative allocation of production factors and in-depth industrial transformation and upgrading” in tech-intensive sectors, including the new energy sector. Energy newspaper BJX News highlights relevant calls in the document for the energy industry, including to “build a unified national power market”, “strengthen innovation in key technologies” and “improve green and low-carbon development mechanisms”. Industry newspaper International Energy Net says the resolution calls for China to accelerate “the green transformation of the economy” and “the planning and construction of a new energy system”, enhance policies for “new energy consumption and regulation” and to “proactively and steadily” advance its “dual carbon” goal. State news agency Xinhua reports that an “explanation” of the resolution written by Chinese president Xi Jinping says that China needs to “enhance green and low-carbon development mechanisms”. State-run newspaper China Energy News carries an article saying that the resolution “injects powerful force into high-quality energy development” in China and quotes Han Wenxiu, drafter of the resolution text, saying that China must “promote high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing”.

Elsewhere, International Energy Net reports that, in the first half of the year, China’s total installed electricity capacity reached 3.07 terawatts, with solar capacity reaching 710 gigawatts (GW), up 51.6%, and wind capacity growing 19.9% to 470GW. Bloomberg reports that China has approved a “massive” plan by Shanghai to “to build 29GW of offshore wind capacity”, a project that “could power half the city” once complete. Business newspaper Caixin reports that the Beijing municipal government will offer an additional 20,000 licence plates for electric vehicles (EVs), in a move “seen as an effort to boost domestic EV sales”.

Xinhua covers the release of a government report on China’s carbon market (ETS), which says that the country will “continue to improve relevant policy support systems”. Another Xinhua article says that, as of 15 July, the cumulative trading volume of carbon allowances in the ETS reached 465m tonnes, with a total transaction value of $27bn yuan ($3.7bn), adding that, during the second compliance cycle (2021-2022), it covered carbon emissions of 5.1bn tonnes per year. It also quotes environment and ecology minister Huang Runqiu saying the ETS will “gradually expand to include…steel, cement, and aluminium smelting”. State broadcaster CCTV also covers the story, adding that China’s ETS has “become the world’s largest carbon market by greenhouse gas coverage”. The state-run newspaper China News quotes Zhao Yingmin, vice-minister for the environment and ecology, saying that China’s carbon market’s “influence and vitality” are “steadily” increasing.

A new model called NeuralGCM, which uses a mix of machine learning and existing forecasting tools, has “helped to make a breakthrough in accurate long-range weather and climate predictions”, according to new research covered by the Financial Times. The newspaper says that the model “promises advances in both forecasting and the wider use of machine learning”. Axios reports that the model has “proven to be more accurate than other purely machine learning-based models for one-to-10-day weather forecasts, along with the top extended-range models in use today”. It adds that the model is open source, and is designed to be run relatively quickly on a laptop. This contrasts with traditional weather forecasting methods, which take hours to run on supercomputers, the outlet notes. It adds that the model has been developed by scientists at Google Research, Google DeepMind, MIT, Harvard University and the European Center for Medium-Range weather forecasts. In the Conversation, Sanaa Hobeichi – a research associate at UNSW Sydney – writes that at its core, NeuralGCM is a general circulation model. However, she adds that for some less well-understood physical processes, such as cloud formation, the model uses machine learning. The New Scientist also covers the study.

Fanny Petitbon and Ilan Zugman, Latin America director and France team lead at campaigning NGO 350.org, argue in a comment for Climate Home News that G20 finance ministers should adopt a “tax on the super-rich”. They write that when G20 finance ministers gather in Rio de Janeiro this week, Brazil and France will “have a chance to put these powerful countries on track to deliver a global wealth tax that could raise over $680bn per year in the fight to tackle poverty and the climate crisis”. Petitbon and Zugman say that both countries are “vocal supporters” of taxing the super-rich to fund international development and climate action. They add that a report commissioned by Brazil finds that “a global wealth tax on the super-rich – billionaires and people with assets worth more than $100m – could be enforced successfully even if all countries did not adopt it”. They argue that implementing a global wealth tax is a “moral imperative”, but add: “For this to be achieved France, and other wealthy nations in the G20 like Germany and the UK, must be willing to make concessions and assume historical responsibility for exploiting fossil fuel extraction in the economically poorer countries whose citizens are experiencing the worst consequences of the climate crisis.” They also argue that it will be hard for Brazil and France to deliver the tax if they “undermine their stance on the international stage with contrasting domestic policy”. Both countries are guilty of this, they say, noting that Brazil has been pushing for new oil projects while France is still not on track to meet its domestic renewable energy targets.

In other comment, David Callaway – founder of Callaway Climate Insights and former editor-in-chief of USA Today – writes in the Independent that 2024 is “history’s tipping point for climate change”. He notes the “huge strides” that we have made in the past decade, for example in renewable energy, but also notes the impact of worsening fires and heatwaves around the world. He continues: “Most ominously, our political leaders are moving in the wrong direction, as saving the planet descends – like so many other topics – into the cultural mud fight between left and right…The wildcard at the political climate table might be the new Labour government. Keir Starmer has pledged to reverse Tory inaction on climate, restart onshore wind power, freeze North Sea oil licences, and create a state-owned Great British Energy group, based in Scotland and dedicated to investing in clean energy projects across the UK. The intention should be applauded even if it eventually might collapse into the underfunded and ill-managed sinkhole of grand Downing Street campaigns.” Callaway also promotes the Independent’s new “Climate 100 List”, which will “single out” the “heroes who are at the forefront of our efforts to find the political will and scientific innovation to respond”. Separately, Lindsay Hooper, CEO of the Cambridge University institute for sustainability leadership, argues in Euronews that Starmer “has hit the ground running on the energy transition”, but says there is a “glaring gap” in action on the nature and biodiversity crises. Hooper says: “Nature is intrinsic to economic growth, jobs, and national security. Unless this is acknowledged and acted on, the new government will ultimately fail to regenerate the economy and secure our nation’s future.” She adds: “Effective government action is needed to stop businesses profiting from undermining the environment, and to provide incentives and confidence for businesses to transition not only to secure their own futures, but to contribute to economic and societal resilience…Action is also needed to drive sustainable growth.” She notes that the next biodiversity summit, COP16, will take place in Colombia in October. She adds: “Starmer now has a window of opportunity to take action to show that the country is fully in the game as a climate and biodiversity leader at COP16 and prior to the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan.”

A new study reveals that while CO2 emissions are rising globally, the fraction of total emissions attributable to coal has decreased in many regions. Using 25 years of data on CO2 emissions, the authors analyse the types of fossil fuels used in different regions, and how their related emissions have changed over time. The authors find that “over the last 25 years there has been an evolution in the fraction of emissions away from coal and toward natural gas” in all regions except the Asia Pacific. They add that “the fraction of emissions from oil products has varied largely with growth in the contribution of petroleum transportation fuels”.

A new paper presents a general circulation model (GCM) called NeuralGCM, which “offers orders of magnitude computational savings over conventional GCMs” for both weather and climate forecasts, according to the authors. The study says that NeuralGCM combines machine learning with physics-based methods. It is “competitive with machine-learning models for one- to ten-day forecasts, and with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction for one- to fifteen-day forecasts”, the authors say. They argue that deep learning can successfully work alongside conventional GCMs and even “enhance the large-scale physical simulations that are essential for understanding and predicting the Earth system”.

A new paper finds that by the mid-twenty-first century, three-quarters of cropland in Ukraine will experience water shortages, “making business-as-usual rain-fed agricultural practices inadequate in addressing the challenges posed by climate change”. To counteract disruptions in irrigation infrastructure caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and climate change, the study suggests “leveraging local surface and groundwater resources” to “enable sustainable irrigation expansion over 18m hectares of croplands and form a viable climate adaptation strategy”.