A “tentative compromise” has been agreed between the White House and Republican leaders in the US over the “debt ceiling”, the limit that Congress imposes on the amount that the US Treasury can owe, Axios reports. The website says the oucome “might cast a shadow over climate politics in 2024”, noting that it is the latest example of climate activists being “angered…over fossil fuel projects or policy”. This is because the compromise includes various climate-relevant measures, notably including the approval of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a major gas project in Virginia and West Virginia, as the article notes. This is viewed as a win for the West Virginia Democrat senator Joe Manchin, who has blocked many aspects of the Biden administration’s climate strategy. The Guardian describes Manchin as a “coal baron and the Senate’s leading beneficiary of campaign donations from gas pipeline interests”. It also notes that some environmentalists oppose the deal because it limits the scope of environmental reviews for future developments across the nation. Nevertheless, the newspaper adds: “The White House has framed the debt ceiling deal as one that has protected Biden’s key climate achievements, such as the numerous provisions for clean energy support in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, which Republicans were keen to strip away in negotiations.” According to the Hill, Democrats and environmental groups argue that the Mountain Valley Pipeline project will lock the nation into more fossil-fuel use and is circumventing normal procedures for such works. A Virginia Democrat spokesperson quoted in the piece says the pipeline is “completely unrelated to the debt ceiling matter”. The New York Times says the agreement in principle to lift the debt limit for two years while also cutting and capping some government spending, in line with Republican demands, arrives as the US came “within days of its first default in history”. On the issue of permitting, the Biden administration said the deal would update the National Energy Policy Act (NEPA), to ensure its impact studies for major projects do not exceed two years, Reuters reports. “That news cheered energy industry representatives that have long complained that NEPA studies are a huge headwind to fossil fuel and clean energy developments alike, often taking more than five years to complete”, it adds.

Lloyd’s has joined a string of big European insurers, as well as a major Japanese and an Australian reinsurer, in leaving the Net-Zero Insurance Alliance (NZIA), a UN-convened body set up two years ago for insurers wanting to cut their emissions and reduce climate change risk, the Financial Times reports. Right-leaning, anti-ESG pressure groups in the US have argued that “efforts to scale back insurance cover for fossil fuel projects were anti-competitive” and a letter from US attorneys-general sent to the insurance groups this month raised “serious concerns” over whether the alliance was at odds with antitrust laws, the newspaper explains. “Some experts said the exits from the insurers’ alliance could undermine other industry coalitions and pledges by the wider financial sector to cut emissions. A trickle of banks and asset managers have quit other key climate alliances in recent months because of the ESG backlash”, the article continues. In total, Reuters reports that the group now has only around half the number of members it had two months ago “as insurers take fright at US political pressure”. It emphasises that “some Republican politicians have mounted a campaign against financial institutions collaborating to try to curb carbon emissions”.

Industry figures reveal that the gulf between electric vehicles (EVs) on the road and public charging points “has more than doubled” in parts of the UK in a year, the Times reports. According to the Times’ analysis, this gap widened in “all but one region last year, casting a shadow over the government’s attempt to boost uptake of EVs”, the ratio for the UK being 36 EVs to one charger, compared with 31 at the end of 2021. The worst-served area, it reports, is England’s north-west, with 85 EVs to every charger by the end of 2022 against 49 in 2021. 

In other UK energy news, the number of solar roofs across the UK are expected to rise from 1.24m to 1.47m “stimulated by the high cost of grid electricity”, City AM reports. According to the latest data from industry body Solar Energy UK and certifier MCS, 230,000 installations are expected to be made in 2023. The increased uptake suggests that “consumers are less anxious over the upfront costs of new installations, in a market defined by high energy bills and near record power prices”, the story says.

Finally, the Politico London Playbook reports that the UK government’s climate change advisory group the Climate Change Committee has hired James Richardson as its chief economist, noting that he joins from the National Infrastructure Commission where he has been chief economist for the last seven years.

Delta Air Lines is facing a lawsuit over its plans to achieve “carbon neutrality”, which plaintiffs say are “false and misleading” as they rely on carbon offsets that do little to mitigate global warming, the Guardian reports. The US airline announced plans in 2020 to spend $1bn to mitigate all emissions from its business worldwide over the next decade, the newspaper explains. The new legal action, filed in California, specifically targets Delta’s statement that it is “the world’s first carbon-neutral airline”, it continues. Reuters says campaigners are “increasingly targeting corporate green claims, often based on the voluntary purchase of carbon offsets, where companies buy credits in pollution-lowering projects to offset emissions”.

Separately, a new study by clean transport campaign group Transport & Environment, concludes that animal fats will not provide a suitable, low-carbon alternative to jet fuel, BBC News reports. One key reason for this is that “there are simply not enough animals slaughtered each year to meet airlines’ growing demand for animal fats” and this scarcity will force other industries to use more palm oil, which can lead to more carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Meanwhile, the Daily Telegraph has an article about the “industry more damaging to the environment than airlines” – referring to the emissions associated with data centres. 

Over the past few days, Shanghai, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Beijing and other places have issued “high-temperature warnings”, reports the Shanghai Securities News. The outlet highlights that May is a “peak period” of industrial electricity consumption and the high-temperature weather further drives a surge in power usage as people use more air conditioners, freezers and other cooling equipment. To cope with the trend of “substantial growth” in electricity load, “various regions and departments [need] to take a number of initiatives to safeguard people’s livelihood and vital energy consumers with electricity”, the article says. It adds that some companies are also actively preparing for the “summer [electricity] peak”. A number of east Asian outlets, including the Korea Times and Oriental Daily also cover the high temperature in China. 

Separately, Bloomberg writes that if China increases its investment in decarbonisation to approximately $38tn, it has the potential to achieve its current climate targets and achieve net-zero by 2050, 10 years earlier than China planned. According to a report from BloombergNEF, the additional investment would enable China to expedite the transformation of its power sector, which involves implementing measures such as “adding more energy storage, nuclear generation and carbon capture technology while extending its world-leading deployment of solar and wind”. Sina Finance, a Chinese news website, also cites the same report and writes that if China achieves net-zero by 2050, the majority of electricity generation in China by then will come from wind and solar power. CNBM Solar, a Chinese photovoltaic industry site, quotes Zou Ji, the CEO and president of Energy Foundation China, who says that China currently needs a strong power grid and it is possible that China does not need to build new coal-fired power sources for carbon neutrality. Another Bloomberg article writes that “the excitement” for solar energy and electric vehicles indicates that “China is approaching a turning point in its energy transition, even before its 2030 target to reach peak emissions”. The transition is now reaching a stage where heavy government subsidies are no longer necessary to incentivise people to shift away from fossil fuels, it highlights. Additionally, the state news agency Xinhua carries a feature, saying that a project in Shangdong province is installing PV systems and wind power storage by “leveraging the highway infrastructures”. 

Meanwhile, the Washington Post writes that, as diplomatic efforts encounter obstacles, the Biden administration has begun to explore alternative approaches to “nudge” China to enhance its efforts in reducing emissions and taking bolder action on climate issues. These approaches include “the potential implementation of tariffs that would be connected to the carbon footprint associated with Chinese imports”, the article highlights. Bloomberg writes that, according to a government statement, the CEO of Tesla Elon Musk has met with Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang in Beijing on Tuesday, where he said his electric vehicle company Tesla “opposes decoupling from China and is willing to keep expanding in the country”.

Elsewhere, Nature carries an article which says that China has launched a “nation-wide satellite and automated monitoring system” to “police” the protection of nature. It adds that scientists want greater transparency regarding the selection of conservation zones. Finally, Xinhua reports that China’s second Tibetan Plateau scientific expedition and research has made “important” progress, which could help the country address climate change and achieve “dual carbon” targets. 

Climate change has been a key priority at a summit held between Pacific Islands Forum leaders and their counterparts in South Korea, New Zealand outlet Stuff reports. It notes, among other things, that South Korea has pledged to double aid to the Pacific. Reuters reports that South Korea has pledged to support the Pacific Islands’ push to preserve their maritime zones, a key source of fishing revenue, “even if climate change causes small-island states to disappear beneath rising seas”. Meanwhile, the Japan Times reports that Japan’s fish catch in 2022 fell 7.5% from a year earlier to a record low, as global warming and overfishing take a toll on the industry.

Meanwhile, at a South American leaders’ summit, the host – Brazil’s president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva – “proposed creating a regional energy market and suggested coordinated actions to tackle climate change”, according to Reuters.

A Guardian editorial says the leader of the opposition UK Labour party, Keir Starmer, has been “admirably straightforward” about his mission to make the UK a “clean energy superpower” and blocking new oil-and-gas fields. The newspaper says that a clear dividing line has emerged between Labour and the Conservative government over the “imminent decision” on Rosebank, the North Sea’s biggest undeveloped oil-and-gas field. “There are dozens more offshore fields coming up for approval over the next four years. None should go ahead – with or without government handouts – because the carbon extracted would contribute to wrecking the planet”, the article states. It adds that, contrary to what the government and supportive voices in the right-leaning press might argue, “this is not about energy security”, noting that “fossil fuel prices are set on international markets – and any piped from the UK’s continental shelf would not insulate the country from global shocks”. The editorial argues that Labour’s ideas are far more in line with those of the government’s official climate advisers, adding that it was “heartening” to see the opposition party propose solutions to the transition away from fossil fuels.

In contrast, the omnipresent climate-sceptic columnist Ross Clark writes dismissively in the Sun that “Labour is looking more and more like the political wing of Just Stop Oil”, claiming that he has adopted their “central demand” to “stop all licences for new oil-and-gas extraction in the North Sea”. Clark criticises Labour for accepting donations from the founder of green energy firm Ecotricity, Dale Vince, who has also donated to Just Stop Oil. He then makes some of the standard critiques mentioned in the Guardian article about the need for “energy security”. He writes: “To ban licences for new oil and gas extraction in the North Sea might sound virtuous, but it is a foolish policy which will further undermine national energy security, as well as drive up energy bills.” Clark is not the only right-leaning UK commentator to take aim at Starmer. Former Conservative minister turned climate-sceptic commentator Ann Widdecombe writes in the Daily Express that Starmer’s policy of blocking new oil-and-gas developments “will please Vladimir Putin but it won’t help our own economy much and it won’t do anything to create more jobs. It is posturing and virtue-signalling to no good purpose”. In a short column, Widdecombe runs through an array of common climate-sceptic talking points including claiming the UK makes “no meaningful difference” to global climate action, blaming China and stating that net-zero “suppress[es] economic activity”. [An independent review by former Conservative minister Chris Skidmore concluded earlier this year that net-zero is the “economic opportunity of 21st century” and the government’s climate advisers estimate that it will create up to 725,000 net new jobs by 2030.] In a separate column, Widdecombe calls for the use of “water cannons” on Just Stop Oil protesters. The Daily Mail’s city editor Alex Brummer has a whole page to take aim at “Starmer’s big state Britain”, warning that “socialism may have acquired a more benign face under Starmer, but make no mistake, it is back with a vengeance”. He says “Labour’s climate-change zealotry…threatens to put the nation’s energy security at risk”, noting that the party is also planning to remove the “tax break enjoyed by investors in North Sea projects”. Brummer writes: “What Labour fails to recognise is that some of the biggest investors in the North Sea – including Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos, BP and Shell  – are also huge backers of green projects, from hydrogen fuels to electric vehicle charging networks.” [In fact, as the International Energy Agency pointed out only last week, investment in clean-energy technologies by the oil-and- gas industry is less than 5% of what it spends on fossil-fuel exploration and production.]

Meanwhile, a writer of the Financial Times’ Lex column, Camilla Palladino, has an article about the struggles for UK businesses as “new, expensive” energy supply contracts kick in, just when government support has been scaled back. She says the nation would do well to think about how to resolve this structurally and prioritise lowering wholesale energy costs. She does not mention extracting more oil and gas. “A review of how the electricity market operates, launched last year, is a welcome step. Reducing energy consumption should also be part of the answer”, Palladino concludes.

Brian Deese, the former director of the National Economic Council for the first two years of the Biden administration who helped shape the landmark Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), writes in the New York Times that the law is “doing exactly what it was designed to do: encourage private investment in clean energy”. He writes that the private sector has already mobilised to build battery factories and low-carbon energy projects. “It seems clear already that the law will stimulate significantly more investment in clean energy than was at first thought possible while generating more revenue from high-income taxpayers to reduce the deficit”, he says. At the same time, Deese writes that “the law did not provide all the necessary tools to achieve national goals for expanding our supply of clean energy. Congress and the Biden administration have more work to do”. He highlights a focus on decarbonising heavy industry and speeding up the development of low-carbon infrastructure as key goals. (See Carbon Brief’s 2017 interview with Deese for more background information.)

Meanwhile, in the i newspaper, veteran climate reporter Geoffrey Lean has a piece titled: “Biden plan is the world’s best hope to avoid critical warming – but Britain’s dragging its feet.” He refers not to the IRA itself but to Biden’s efforts to encourage major emitters to crack down on methane emissions. 

An editorial in the climate-sceptic comment pages of the Wall Street Journal focuses on the debt ceiling deal that appears to have secured the Mountain Valley pipeline, a fossil-fuel project long opposed by environmentalists and many Democrats. “Now they’re irate that they may lose their long fight because the debt-ceiling deal between President Biden and House Republicans essentially guarantees the pipeline’s completion”, the article states. The editorial describes this outcome as “sweet revenge” for West Virginia Democrat senator Joe Manchin, who said he voted for last year’s Inflation Reduction Act in return for a promise by president Joe Biden and Democrat majority leader Chuck Schumer to pass permitting reform “that would include expedited approval of the Mountain Valley Pipeline”. It adds: “He got nothing from his fellow Democrats. But now Republicans have come to his rescue by liberating the pipeline from green purgatory. You’re welcome, Senator.”

Writing in the New York Times, columnist Paul Krugman reflects on why Republicans in the Texas legislature have turned against renewable energy, in an article titled: “How the wind became woke.” He explains that, despite the enormous success of renewables in Texas, which currently generates more renewable power than any other state, Republicans are pushing “a raft of proposed measures that would subsidise fossil fuels, impose restrictions that might block many renewable energy projects and maybe even shut down many existing facilities”. He continues: “I don’t think Texas’s rejection of its own energy success is entirely, or even mainly, about greed. Instead, renewables have been caught up in the culture wars. In a way, it’s a lot like Ron DeSantis’s confrontation with Disney, which looks just crazy from a policy point of view – why undermine tourism, one of the pillars of Florida’s economy? But these days it’s often important not to follow the money.” 

Speaking of DeSantis, an Independent article by David Callaway, founder of Callaway Climate Insights and former editor-in-chief of USA Today, describes the Republican presidential hopeful as wasting no time “cementing his role as climate-denier-in-chief last week”. He notes that “as governor of Florida, one of the US states most affected by rising seas”, DeSantis’ pursuit of climate scepticism is “about politics at the highest level”.

Extreme rainfall in winter in the northeastern US could more than double by the end of the century, when compared to levels from 1976-2005, new research finds. The research uses climate models to examine expected changes to both total and extreme rainfall across the northeastern US in the decades to come. It also finds that total annual precipitation could increase by around 10% by 2099, when compared to 1976-2005. The authors say the increase is “strongly related” to expected increases in water vapour over the eastern US and Atlantic Ocean.

Climate change could cause widespread risk for Mediterranean fisheries and the countries that depend on them, new research finds. The study examines what commercial fish species in the Mediterranean could be most affected by climate change, as well as what countries could be most vulnerable to climate-induced changes. It finds that temperate-cold fish species, such as European sprat and common sole, are likely to be the most sensitive to climate change. Meanwhile, the Mediterranean countries most at risk include Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya “due to their comparatively high exposure to global warming and low adaptive capacity”, according to the study authors.