The UK government is expected to support the construction of a “new generation” of gas-fired power plants, the Times reports. The newspaper continues: “Claire Coutinho, the energy security secretary, will on Tuesday warn that the country faces a ‘genuine prospect of blackouts’ without gas as a back up for renewable energy sources. She will also say that securing the UK’s future energy needs will require ‘trade offs’ and that, faced with a choice between clean energy and ‘keeping citizens safe and warm’, the government would ‘choose to keep the lights on’. Labour said it supported the plan, pointing out that replacing gas-fired stations was not at odds with a decarbonised power system. It said that the Climate Change Committee had made clear that there needed to be a role for gas in a decarbonised grid to back up renewable energy in times of cold weather and low wind speeds. Environmental experts described the framing of the government’s announcement as ‘strange’ saying it was widely accepted that new gas stations would be needed to replace existing power plants under the current net-zero trajectory. These plants will be compatible with carbon capture and storage and only expected to be used for short periods to ensure consistent power supplies.” The Financial Times describes the news as “the latest move by [prime minister] Rishi Sunak to portray his government as taking a pragmatic approach to tackling climate change”. It continues: “The government said it would support further building of gas-fired power plants by allowing their developers to retain access to key subsidy payments [under the long-standing capacity market] to supply back-up power for the grid.” The paper adds: “The announcement is part of a series of planned reforms to the power market to help it adapt to the rise of renewable energy that Coutinho will unveil on Tuesday. These include proposals to regionalise the national electricity market by splitting it into as many as seven ‘zones’, with each one setting its own wholesale electricity price.” Reuters reports that “Britain is proposing a location-based method to determine how much consumers should be charged for the electricity they use”. Under the new proposal, consumers located closer to power generators would pay less for energy, the newswire says. BBC News reports that the new gas stations “would replace existing plants, many of which are ageing and will soon be retired”. The Independent quotes Jess Ralston, energy analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), who says: “The UK is going backwards on energy security because of the government fumbling its latest auction for British offshore wind farms, failing on its home insulation schemes and dithering on heat pumps. Without carbon capture technology, these gas plants may only have a decade or two before they are decommissioned, and who’s going to pay for that?” The Guardian says Sunak “risks further criticism from green campaigners” after saying that he will “not gamble with our energy security”. It adds: “The government stressed that the move would not impact net-zero targets. However, critics are likely to see it as a backwards step in the wider push to decarbonise Britain’s power network through renewable energy projects.” The Daily Telegraph carries the story on its front page under the headline “Sunak’s new gas plants ease risk of blackouts”. The Daily Mail, the Press Association and the Daily Mirror also cover the story.

In other UK news, the Times covers analysis by Carbon Brief which finds that “Britain’s carbon emissions fell last year to levels unseen since 1879”. The newspaper reports that the UK’s emissions dropped by 5.7% last year, according to the analysis, despite a 1.1% increase in global emissions. It continues: “The UK decline means that the country is now more than halfway to net-zero by 2050, despite the UK economy growing 82% in the past 33 years…Much of the decrease in emissions [last year] was due to a mild winter, high gas prices and electricity imports from France curbing gas demand by about a tenth, rather than green policies.” The paper quotes Carbon Brief’s Dr Simon Evans, who explained that “the reduction in emissions last year was primarily driven by circumstances rather than government policies”. It quotes Evans adding: “When there’s discussion about UK progress, people say ‘oh we’ve just outsourced emissions’. But if you look at the last decade, overwhelmingly the progress has been in sectors you can’t outsource – like power, buildings. Most of the big reduction in industrial emissions happened a long time ago.” The Daily Mail also covers the analysis.

Elsewhere, the Times reports that “the company behind a multibillion-pound project to export power from Morocco is considering an option to transmit electricity to Germany instead of Britain”. According to the newspaper, Xlinks plans to build 4.5 gigawatts (GW) of windfarms, 7GW of solar farms and 5GW of battery storage in the Moroccan desert. The company originally planned to deliver the power to Britain via four undersea cables to Devon, allowing it to “reliably deliver 3.6GW, or about 8% of UK demand, for 20 hours a day”, the paper says. However, it adds: “According to planning documents published by ENTSO-E, the European transmission systems operator, and first reported by Bloomberg, Xlinks is considering providing power to Germany as well. The company could provide a connector for both Germany and Britain, solely the UK or potentially only Germany.” Bloomberg notes that the £16bn project would provide Britain with enough electricity to power seven million homes. The Daily Telegraph also covers the story.

In other UK news, Reuters reports that “Britain’s energy regulator Ofgem on Monday launched a call for input to help protect consumers amid high energy costs and find ways to address a record £3.1bn pile of unpaid bills”. The Times says Ofgem are “‘very concerned’ that struggling households will be unable to manage future energy price shocks”. The Daily Telegraph says Ofgem are concerned that “the short-term costs of net-zero ‘could disproportionately hit lower-income consumers’ who are unable to invest in new technologies or change their behaviour”. Elsewhere, the Daily Telegraph reports that “property owners are increasingly being exposed to an underworld of ‘unscrupulous’ net-zero traders”. Desmog reports that suspended Conservative MP Lee Anderson and former party vice-chair has joined Reform UK. The outlet calls Reform UK “the UK’s main climate science denial party”, and notes that Anderson “has repeatedly attacked the government’s net-zero policies”. Finally, the Times reports on its front page that “flawed tests ‘mean electric cars can’t travel as far as claimed’”. It adds: “Steve Huntingford, the editor of What Car? magazine, said official laboratory tests have ‘inadequacies’ and need overhauling”. The Daily Telegraph carries the story under the headline “EVs have one third less range than advertised, magazine test finds”.

The United Nations special rapporteur on human rights defenders, Mary Lawlor, will present a ”first-of-its-kind” report to the UN human rights council today, saying that youth activists need more protection, the Guardian reports. After interviewing nearly 100 young people from 37 countries, Lawlor concluded that “child rights defenders, especially girls and gender-nonconforming children, and including child climate activists, have been facing growing repression in many countries”, the newspaper says. It continues: “Lawlor found that young human rights defenders – particularly children – are often not taken seriously, and don’t have access to things like funding or legal aid if they get into trouble.” This comes as the Associated Press reports that a group of climate activists including Geta Thunberg blocked the entrance to the Swedish parliament yesterday, demanding “sweeping reforms to tackle climate disasters”. The Guardian carries a video of the protest. In other news, the Guardian reports that a coalition of youth voters from 15 groups of mostly Gen Z and young millennial voters “on Monday gave Joe Biden’s re-election campaign a welcome shot in the arm”. But the paper adds: “On the issues that concern young voters most, including the climate emergency, gun violence, abortion, education and protecting democracy, a plurality of voters said they trusted neither Biden nor Donald Trump, the former president and presumptive Republican nominee.”

Zhang Jianhua, member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and director of the National Energy Administration (NEA), says in an interview that he has issued a proposal at the “two sessions” to address “unfair global carbon reduction” and “promote global fair and just carbon reduction”, urging developed countries to “acknowledge their historical emissions”, reports China Electric Power News. Zhang also says that the NEA “has always taken energy security as the primary political task”, but China also needs to “actively develop” clean energy. State broadcaster CCTV publishes comments from Chinese president Xi Jinping comments at the “two sessions” that China should “implement a policy of precise pollution control”. State-run newspaper China Daily reports that Xi provided guidance on three areas of focus for China’s “high-quality development”, including “new pollution control measures”, which the newspaper says “the [president] has been concerned [about] for a long time”. Energy news outlet IN-EN.com reports that Liu Yafang, former deputy director of the NEA’s science and technology department, says that by the end of 2024, the total installed capacity of wind and solar power is “expected to surpass the target set for 2030 under the dual-carbon strategy” of 1,200GW.

Meanwhile, the Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily carries a commentary saying that China has committed to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality in a “much shorter time frame than that committed by developed countries” but that “achieving the ‘dual carbon’ goals cannot be done overnight” and progress must be made “in a steady manner”. China Daily quotes Zhang Tianren, chairman of battery manufacturer Tianneng Group, saying that the action plans and supporting policies for some key sectors to achieve “dual carbon” targets are “loose and fragmented, and barely provide adequate support for the climate targets”. Industry outlet BJX News assesses the impact of the target in this year’s government work report to reduce energy intensity by 2.5%, quoting Shanghai Jiaotong University professor Huang Yongping saying that the target implies the need to “accelerate the optimisation of the energy structure, especially for high energy-consuming enterprises”. Reuters says that Shanxi, the leading coal-producing province in China, plans to “stabilise” coal output this year, with officials refraining from setting production targets following calls for greater energy security. China Energy Net reports that delegations from coal-producing provinces such as Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have sent a “strong signal” during the “two sessions” that they will promote “high-quality energy development through new productive forces”.

Communist party-affiliated newspaper Guangming Daily focuses on the keynote speech by Liu Zhenmin, China’s special envoy for climate change, at the China-Japan-Korea Carbon Neutrality Forum. It quotes Liu saying: “We need to gradually promote energy transformation, strengthen international cooperation and continuously move forward along the goals and tracks of the Paris Agreement.” Finally, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post covers comments by the Chinese foreign ministry that the Philippine’s energy exploration in the South China Sea “must not harm China’s interests”.

“US crude oil production lead[s] global oil production for a sixth straight year, with a record breaking average production of 12.9m barrels per day (pbd),” Reuters reports. According to the newswire, US crude oil production hit a new monthly record high of more than 13.3m bpd in December. The Energy Information Administration says it is “unlikely that the record will be broken by another country in the near term”, it adds. Separately, Reuters has compared oil demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency and OPEC for every year since 2008. It finds that the two groups “are further apart than they have been for at least 16 years in their views on fuel use”. It continues: “In February this year, the IEA predicted demand will rise by 1.22m bpd in 2024, while in its February report OPEC expected 2.25m bpd. The difference is about 1% of world demand.”

Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s president-designate for the upcoming COP29 climate summit and minister for ecology and natural resources, writes in the Guardian that “re-establishing trust between developed and developing nations is essential if our goals are to be achieved”. He writes: “We must break for good the stop-start of COP agreements so there is follow-through from one to the next. This began last month with the launch of the ‘COP presidencies troika’, ensuring Azerbaijan will be the bridge in decision-making and implementation from the leadership of the 28th summit in UAE through to the 30th in Brazil next year. This rolling mechanism will ensure the summits themselves transition away from staging grand announcements to a platform for continuity through monitoring and implementation. It also matters that a bridge is created between the industrialised and developing worlds.” Babayev says that trust can be restored between developed and developing countries by “establishing a new climate finance goal that is then reconfirmed through the next two COPs and beyond via the troika mechanism”. He adds that the goal “must reflect the scale and urgency of the climate challenge and, equally importantly, quickly unlock those funds for the nations that need them most”. This comes as the Guardian reports on a warning from Babayev that “the governments that assume power after elections around the world this year will be held to the same climate obligations as their predecessors”. 

Separately, Richie Merzian – international director of Australia’s Smart Energy Council – writes in the Guardian that “hosting COP[31] in 2026 could be the incentive Australia needs to turbocharge climate action”. Merzian notes that prime minister Anthony Albanese promised in 2021 that if Labor won the next Australian election, he would offer to host a COP in 2024. He adds: “Well, Labor won. And it’s 2024. So dude, where is my COP?” He continues: “Unfortunately, Albanese decided to delay the COP bid from hosting in 2024 to 2026. But it is still not locked in and the clock is ticking. The only competing bid to host in 2026 is from Turkey and the decision must be made by consensus…Now is the time to seal the deal and begin to build a climate-savvy Australia that we can showcase to the world.”

Elsewhere, the global energy and climate innovation editor of the Economist, Vijay Vaitheeswaran, has published a “special report” on the oil industry, divided into five “chapters”. In the first, he writes that transitioning away from oil “means a change in the fundamental dynamic of the oil industry, one which has shaped it and its relationship to the world economy for 50 years”. In the second, Vaitheeswaran explains why “oil supply shocks are not like the 1970s any more”. He says that today, “the global energy market is more robust” than it was in the 1970s. For example, he notes that after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the US was able to tap into its strategic petroleum reserve and increase its liquified natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe. The third chapter, with the title “oil’s endgame will be in the Gulf”, says: “For the Gulf states the outlook is rosy. They produce a lot of oil cheaply and have the capital needed to produce more…Gulf oil has the advantage of being less carbon-intensive than other oil: low in carbon content and easy to extract. The UAE is leaning into this…As with hosting the UN’s COP28 climate conference, the UAE’s aim is to be seen as supplier of choice in a climate-concerned world.” The fourth chapter looks at the use of carbon capture and storage by oil and gas companies. And the fifth looks at how oil demand might fall over the coming years and decades. 

UK prime minister Rishi Sunak has penned a comment piece in the Daily Telegraph explaining previewing his government’s proposals, due to be published later today, on supporting the construction of new gas-fired power plants. The war in Ukraine has shown that “you can’t protect national security without delivering energy security”, Sunak writes. He continues: “We’re going further and faster than ever to deliver green energy, in a way that doesn’t place extra burdens on the British people. But our analysis – underpinned by research out today – shows that we will need gas generation in the immediate term to meet rising demand. Ultimately, we will meet this demand with renewables and with new, cleaner gas technologies to abate emissions. We’re investing millions to achieve this, but it will take time. So in the short term we will need more unabated gas power capacity. The Climate Change Committee also supports a defined role for gas generation in 2035…While we will continue leading the world in renewable power we will also take decisive action to boost our gas power capacity. First, by extending the life of existing gas facilities, where it is practical to do so. Second, by building the necessary new capacity to replace the gas-fired power plants that will need to be retired.”

In other UK comment, an editorial in the Times cites a recent investigation by the magazine What Car?, which it says shows that “flawed tests” are exaggerating electric car range by more than a third.  It says: “Disclosures like this harm a sector that must gain public confidence. Some 62% of those questioned in a Green Finance Institute survey cited battery life as a concern. Change must come, because of climate change and air pollution that kills up to 36,000 people a year. Yet EVs remain too pricey and too big…Without ­accuracy on EV performance, better charging ­infrastructure and the confidence each brings, the UK’s electric dreams are likely to remain just that.” Meanwhile, the Financial Times Lex column says the slump in cobalt prices will drive down the cost of batteries, providing an “opportunity for the auto sector”. Elsewhere, climate-sceptic columnist Matthew Lynn writes in the Daily Telegraph that “Labour’s national wealth fund will become a national embarrassment”. He quotes shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves, who promised investment into carbon capture, green hydrogen, green steel and floating offshore wind, and says that this “does not seem very likely”. Finally, the Guardian has published an editorial on global supply chains, which notes that “the climate crisis is already affecting logistics: low rainfall in Panama has forced the authorities to limit vessels using the canal”.

Fears about Covid-19 reinforced climate change worries rather than distracting people from the crisis, a new survey of 28 European countries finds. The study finds a strong increase in climate change concerns between 2016 and 2021 and a slight additional increase during the pandemic (between 2020 and 2021) in the 28 countries examined. The researchers say that the findings contradict the “finite pool of worry theory”, which suggests that concern for one crisis wanes when another crisis emerges.