The UK will find it more difficult to reach its legal net-zero target after the prime minister’s climate policy rollbacks last month, the government’s own advisers have warned in a widely covered letter. According to BBC News, the UK’s Climate Change Committee (CCC) also warned of “knock-on effects of the government’s ‘reduced ambition’ on consumer confidence and investment, and noted some of [Rishi] Sunak’s changes would actually increase bills for households”. In response, the government said it was confident the UK would meet its commitments, the outlet reports. Bloomberg adds that the CCC also warned that Sunak’s rollbacks risked “killing ambition” at the upcoming COP28 climate summit in Dubai. The Daily Express, Reuters and Financial Times centre their coverage around the warning Sunak’s climate rollbacks could cost households more. In the i newspaper, political commentator Paul Waugh says the public “won’t be fooled” if Sunak “tries to fiddle the numbers on net-zero”. Meanwhile, the Times has a piece titled “Is achieving net-zero a waste of money?” where it pits Greenpeace’s head of politics against a campaign manager from the climate-sceptic right-wing pressure group the TaxPayers’ Alliance.

Elsewhere, DeSmog reports that, according to documents obtained via a freedom of information request, the UK’s main North Sea regulator is not currently carrying out physical checks of oil and gas projects to ensure they are “following the rules”. And the Financial Times reports that the UK competition regulator will allow companies to team up in order to tackle climate change, “assuaging concerns they could fall foul of rules designed to protect their customers from the potential collusion”.

More than 40% of Antarctica’s ice shelves have shrunk since 1997, with almost half showing “no sign of recovery”, according to a widely covered study. The researchers calculated that 67tn tonnes of ice was lost in the west of the Antarctic continent while 59tn tonnes was added to the east between 1997 and 2021 – resulting in a net loss of 7.5tn tonnes, the Press Association reports. It adds: “Warm water on the western side of the continent has been melting ice, whereas in the east, ice shelves have either stayed the same or grown as the water is colder there.” The Washington Post adds that the ice loss is “potentially accelerating sea level rise by allowing more land ice to flow into the ocean”. Study lead author Dr Benjamin Davison from the University of Leeds tells the outlet: “The surprising result to me was just how many ice shelves are deteriorating that substantially and continuously. Lots of ice shelves, not just the big ones, are steadily losing mass over time with no sign of recovery.” Reuters, the Guardian and the Daily Mail are among those covering the research.

In a string of new articles, the Guardian reports that human rights experts and campaigners have warned against an intensifying crackdown on climate protests across Europe, as their investigation alleges that “countries across the continent [are] using repressive measures to silence activists”. It says: “In Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, the Netherlands and the UK, authorities have responded to climate protests with mass arrests, the passing of draconian new laws, the imposing of severe sentences for non-violent protests and the labelling of activists as hooligans, saboteurs or eco-terrorists. The UK has led the way in the crackdown, experts say, with judges recently refusing an appeal against multi-year sentences for climate activists who blocked a motorway bridge in east London. The three-year jail terms for Marcus Decker and Morgan Trowland earlier this year are thought to be the longest handed out by a British judge for non-violent protest.” [Carbon Brief interviewed Trowland from prison in July.] Separately, the Guardian’s Europe climate correspondent Ajit Niranjan speaks to young climate activist Luisa Neubauer about how “severe policing and scary political rhetoric” is fuelling abuse against climate activists.

The European commissioner for energy Kadri Simson “urged China to commit to renewable energy and methane reduction targets” during talks with China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) chief Zhang Jianhua this week in Beijing, reports Reuters. It adds that Simson did not explicitly call for China to take more ambitious steps in reducing its carbon emissions. The talks came as tensions between the two intensified after the EU’s decision to launch a probe into Chinese subsidies for its electric vehicle (EV) industry, the newswire notes. Simson said on Thursday that “no official decision” had been taken on initiating EU investigations into China’s wind industry subsidies, reports Agence France-Presse.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Chinese companies CATL and BYD are expanding their share in the US and European EV battery markets and account for half of global volumes. Separately, Bloomberg publishes an excerpt from senior reporter Akshat Rathi’s new book Climate Capitalism, focusing on China’s “dominance” in the battery market. The Los Angeles Times carries a comment piece by Alex Wang, a professor at the UCLA School of Law, saying climate collaboration between California and China could see “each prod[ding] the other to do better on methane and other climate issues”.

Elsewhere, the New York Times writes that as the largest oil importer from Saudi Arabia and Iran, China faces risks if the conflict in Israel and Gaza expands. Reuters reports that a Chinese refiner is “in talks” over buying a 10% stake in oil giant Saudi Aramco. A feature on S&P Global says that China has shifted from providing “cheap loans” to African nations to making “energy investments”. And China Dialogue reports: “China could guide early retirement of coal power plants in BRI [belt and road initiative] countries and use public–private partnerships to boost renewables, experts say.”

Elsewhere, Chinese energy site China Energy Net carries a comment by Liu Tao, director of the coal department at the NEA, saying his department will accelerate the “clean and efficient use of coal”, including by “clean development of coal resources” and the “integration of the coal industry with new energy sources”.

New ways of cleaning up steel and cement production have made US billionaire Bill Gates more optimistic about tackling climate change than he was eight years ago when the landmark Paris Agreement was reached, the Times reports. Speaking at an event in London, Gates spoke of making concrete without limestone and the still-emergent technology carbon capture and storage as examples of things that give him hope about tackling climate change, the Times says. It adds that the Microsoft co-founder “said rich countries such as the UK had a responsibility not only to cut emissions but to make technologies such as electric cars and renewables cheaper for middle-income nations to adopt”.

Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy and climate action minister, has announced that the coal-fired power plants “reactivated” due to the energy crisis will be phased out in the coming year, contingent on the completion of additional liquefied “natural” gas (LNG) terminals in Germany, reports Die Zeit. The outlet quotes him saying: “Once the infrastructure is in place, we won’t need additional coal-fired power plants. That’s the plan.” The outlet explains that three floating LNG terminals are currently operating in Germany with three more set to follow. However, there is “significant opposition” from environmentalists and the local population on the island of Rügen against a new terminal, notes the outlet. It continues that Habeck “is optimistic” about the upcoming winter regarding energy supply, stating that gas storage facilities are 95% full. However, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reports that there is still a risk of a gas shortage “during extremely cold temperatures”. In addition, Politico reports that Germany’s deal to import gas from Qatar, considered a major sponsor of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, is under “renewed scrutiny”.

Meanwhile, FAZ reports that the Munich higher regional court has ruled in favour of BMW in the “climate dispute” with the NGO and consumer protection organisation Environmental Action Germany. The group was seeking to legally compel German automakers to stop selling vehicles “with climate-damaging internal combustion engines from 2030 onwards”, notes the outlet. In addition, the Guardian reports that “Germany has increasingly cracked down on climate protests as they have grown more disruptive”. Elsewhere, Euronews reports that low-cost airline Eurowings wants climate protesters to pay €120,000 in compensation for disruption caused at German airports.

Finally, Manager Magazin reports that the expansion of onshore wind turbines is showing “significant progress” in Germany. Business Insider notes that more than 50% of the electricity produced in Germany could, for the first time in 2023, come from renewables.

In the Guardian, Dr Gianluca Grimalda, a social scientist working on adaptation to climate change, writes on how his refusal to take a flight home from fieldwork in Papua New Guinea has cost him his job as a senior researcher at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany. He says: “Two weeks ago, my employer presented me with a stark ultimatum: return to my offices in Kiel, Germany, within five days, or lose my job…The urgency of their request to return meant I would have to jump on a plane if I was to meet the deadline; but for me, this was not an option. I have been practising conscientious objection to flying for more than 10 years.” He adds that he had three motivations for refusing to take a flight. The first being the climate impact of flying and the second being a promise he made to communities he was working with in Papua New Guinea that he would ensure his research was low carbon. He adds: “Finally, and most importantly, I hope my case might put a little crack into the wall of ‘selfishness, greed, and apathy’, which, in the words of climate lawyer Gus Speth, is the main hindrance to stopping runaway climate change. Many people will think that it is madness to give up their dream job to avoid taking one flight. But in the current era of climate breakdown, it is, in my opinion, insane to continue with ‘business as usual’, when science tells us that we are either dangerously close to or past the point of collapse for major ecosystems.” Grimalda’s dismissal is covered by the New York Times and the Independent.

An editorial in the Economist has an answer to “how to deal with the global anti-climate backlash”, which is: “Minimise the cost and hassle that green policies impose on households.” The publication says: “A backlash against climate-friendly policies is under way in rich democracies. It has many causes. Some voters deny that climate change is happening. Others accept that it is, but do not want to pay higher taxes or energy prices to tackle it. Many object to the hassle of installing new equipment. Some, especially the old, resist any kind of change. Others ask why they should make sacrifices when other countries, especially ones they dislike, are doing less.”

Improving anti-poaching enforcement in protected areas can offset the negative impacts of climate and land-use change on giraffe populations, a new study suggests. Using a model based on long-term data on female giraffe populations in northern Tanzania, researchers project how different management approaches might affect the population size. They find that the greatest risk factor for population decline is a decrease in law enforcement activity leading to more poaching. They write: “A 0.01 increase in giraffe survival probability from improved law enforcement mitigated a 25% rise in heavy rainfall events.”

New research shows that marine heatwaves in the north-west Pacific Ocean have “remarkable predictability” up to eight months in advance. A group of scientists use daily data from a climate forecasting system covering 1984-2020 to predict the spatial patterns of marine heatwaves, as measured by the number of days that a given part of the ocean experienced a heatwave. They find that this number is “strongly correlated”  with the preceding El Niño events, with heatwaves “being more predictable in the decaying years of stronger El Niño events”. In those years, they find, the spatial pattern of heatwave days can be predicted up to 19 months in advance.