The Financial Times reports that UK ministers are drawing up plans for the “country’s biggest ever renewable energy subsidy auction”, in an attempt to meet the government’s “challenging” target for “clean power by 2030”. On Friday, energy secretary Ed Miliband is set to launch his “Clean Power 2030 Action Plan”, laying out how the country will decarbonise its electricity system by the end of this decade, the article explains. The UK already subsidises clean-power technologies through its contracts for difference (CfD) auctions, with a record 131 projects securing a fixed price for energy for the next 15 years in the latest round (see Carbon Brief’s coverage), the FT adds. Ministers are now looking to hold the biggest CfD auction “ever” in 2025, in a bid to reach “95% clean power by 2030”, it reports. The article quotes a government source saying: “When you think about the long lead times for a project like an offshore wind farm it makes sense to get going with the CFDs now and throw the book at this with a huge auction round as soon as possible, probably next year. It would be the biggest we’ve seen so far.”

In other UK news, the Guardian reports that the government’s plan to switch to a net-zero electricity system by 2030 faces “significant challenges”, according to the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC). The research group concludes that there is “very little room for error”, if the country is to meet 95% of its power from low-carbon sources, the article continues. The UKERC report notes that consumers expecting that more cheap renewables “would translate into lower energy bills” will probably “be disappointed” that Britain’s National Energy System Operator (Neso) has “not been clearer in its commentary on the direct cost impact of changing the generation mix”, the Guardian adds.

Elsewhere, staff at wind turbine manufacturer Vestas on the Isle of Wight have been told there is a risk of redundancies, reports BBC News. The 600-strong workforce has been warned up to half of them could lose their jobs, it continues. The Guardian reports that the cuts come as demand for the blades is changing. The site in Newport on the Isle of Wight, which opened in 2002, makes an older type of offshore wind turbine blade that is much smaller than new models, it adds. The government has issued a statement saying: “The government has…reached an agreement in principle with wind turbine manufacturer Vestas to repurpose its wind blade factory on the Isle of Wight, saving 300 jobs.”

In other renewable energy news, low wind generation in Germany has “driven power prices to their highest level in nearly two decades”, reports the Daily Telegraph. The “dunkelflaute” period of reduced wind speeds has seen wind generation “plunge to barely 3% of installed capacity”, during which period power prices hit €900 per megawatt hour, it adds. The article quotes climate-sceptic commentator Kathryn Porter, described as an “independent energy analyst at Watt Logic”, who claims the price surges were down to “poor choices made by Germany over the past 20 years”.

In the US, the Biden administration is “poised to unveil steep new tariffs on imports of critical materials from China in its final effort to protect US manufacturing from the Asian superpower’s dominant cleantech industry”, reports the Financial Times. The US trade representative’s office is expected to double the tariff on Chinese solar wafers and polysilicon to 50%, as well as tungsten products being hit with a 25% levy, it continues. The Hill quotes US trade representative Katherine Tai who says the tariffs will support US investments while hurting China. The New York Times reports that the Biden administration is also trying to “reinforce the communication channels it established” between the US and China before the new Trump administration, adding that the US will raise its “continued concerns” about China’s excess production of “green energy technology and China’s recent restriction on critical mineral exports”. Bloomberg reports that new restrictions imposed by China, such as a ban on critical minerals, appear “calibrated to threaten the US without rocking the fragile bilateral relationship, or inviting blowback on China’s own economy”. Business news outlet Yicai reports that Trump’s threat of 60% additional tariffs on China is a “tactic to put pressure and leave room for negotiation”, but that tariffs will “still likely increase” to 40% from 2025 to 2026. Elsewhere, China’s environment minister Huang Runqiu met with the chief minister of Pakistan’s Punjab province to discuss “environmental governance policies” and cooperation on climate issues, International Energy Net reports.

Meanwhile, in other China news, state news agency Xinhua says that electric vehicle (EV) disputes “have weighed heavily on the economic and trade ties” between China and the EU, but that bilateral trade has, nevertheless, “demonstrated its resilience”. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) has urged the government to “extend concessions for trading in older vehicles” to boost “domestic car sales amid a drop in electric vehicle exports”, Bloomberg reports. German news outlet Deutsche Welle has published an investigation into dozens of Chinese climate projects that were allowed to issue carbon credits in Germany despite “not meet[ing] the legal requirements of a specialised carbon scheme set up for the fossil fuel industry”.

Separately, between January to November this year, China imported more coal than the entire previous year, “mainly because of lower prices”, Yicai reports, adding that its coal imports are “expected to remain at historical highs” as the winter season states. International Energy Net also covers the story, adding that coal imports in this period increased by 14.8% year-on-year to 490m tonnes. Xinhua reports that geothermal heating is “helping” to warm the houses of “more than 1.1m residents in 11…regions including Tianjin, Shaanxi, Jilin and Shanxi” during the winter.

Health officials have warned that deaths across the Caribbean and Americas from dengue fever have surged as warmer weather due to climate change allows mosquitoes that carry the virus to expand their reach, reports the Associated Press via the Guardian. “More than 7,700 deaths have been reported in the region so far in 2024, compared with 2,467 deaths in 2023 – an increase of more than 200%”, the article continues. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) warns that the American continent is facing ‘the largest dengue epidemic ever recorded’ due to climate change, reports Argentina’s Infobae. PAHO director Dr Jarbas Barbosa is quoted saying there has been more than 12.6 million cases this year, a figure that triples the number recorded in 2023. BBC News also covers the story.

Elsewhere, malaria cases have risen for the fifth year as “climate and humanitarian disasters continue to hamper control efforts”, reports the Guardian. According to a new report from the World Health Organisation (WHO), the disease killed almost 600,000 people in 2023. There were 263m cases of malaria globally last year, 11m more than in 2022, with the vast majority (94%) in Africa, the Guardian continues.

In Mexico, 75% of heat-related deaths occur in individuals under the age of 35, according to a recent study covered by Colombia’s El Espectador. One of the co-authors of the study says “it’s surprising…these are the most physiologically robust individuals in the population”. The study suggests that this could be because young adults disproportionately work outdoors and are more exposed to heat.

In other Latin American news, Brazil has asked the international court of justice (ICJ) for a “differentiated climate legal regime between developed and developing countries”, writes Lucas Carlos Lima, a professor at the Federal University of Minas Gerais, in a comment piece for Folha de São Paulo. Mexico has called for the ICJ to set rules for countries to fulfill their climate change obligations, reports La Jornada. The country also has advocated for the right to a “healthy environment and committed to strengthen international cooperation to address climate change”. (See Carbon Brief’s “Interview: Prof Philippe Sands on UN court’s landmark climate-change hearing.”)

Chile has approved a sectoral climate change plan aimed at “establishing a sustainable mining policy”, according to BioBioChile. Mining currently accounts for 12% of the country’s GDP. The new plan will “encourage the decarbonisation of the sector by promoting the use of low-emission fuels, green hydrogen and renewable energy sources”.

Finally, over the past two years, global shipping giants have transported half a million tonnes of meat from abattoirs linked to razed forest in the Amazon, reports the Bureau of Investigative Journalism. Shipping companies transported the beef and leather from abattoirs linked to tropical forest destruction in Brazil, it alleges. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism’s findings have prompted calls for shipping companies to be held responsible for their role in the beef industry, as a “top cause of the destruction” of the Amazon rainforest, the article notes.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has cut its 2024 global oil and gas forecast for a fifth straight month and by the largest amount this year, reports Reuters. The downgrade highlights “China’s sputtering role as the world’s demand growth engine”, the article notes. The weaker outlook underlines the challenge facing OPEC+ (OPEC and Russia), which stated earlier this month that it has delayed plans to start raising output of oil and gas until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices, it continues. OPEC expects 2024 global oil demand to rise by 1.61m barrels per day (bpd), the article notes. OPEC has also cut its 2025 growth estimate to 1.45mbpd from 1.54mbpd, it adds.

In related news, ExxonMobil has announced plans to increase oil production by almost a fifth by the end of the decade, “even as rivals pull back amid fears of an oversupplied global market”, reports the Financial Times. The US oil giant has announced that it will increase expenditure from $28bn in 2024, to $27bn-$29bn in 2025 and $28bn-$33bn between 2026 and 2030, the article continues. The increase will allow it to lift production by about 18% to 5.4mbpd by the end of the day from 2.6mbpd currently, more than some OPEC countries produce, it adds. 

Christopher Wright and Ufuk Alparslan, analysts at thinktank Ember, argue in a comment piece in Dialogue Earth that coal will be a “central pillar of COP31”, no matter which country it is held in. Both Turkey and Australia have put in bids to host the UN’s climate conference in 2026, meaning that it will be the first COP in years hosted in a country largely dependent on coal power, the article notes. The analysts argue separately for the two countries, with Wright highlighting the large amounts of solar in Australia as a positive and Alparslan pointing to Turkey’s “ambitious” renewable energy targets. “One thing we both agree on is that COP31 will not only be a key moment in our national energy transitions, but it must also push forward the global effort to phase down coal”, they conclude.

Elsewhere, climate-sceptic Daily Mail columnist Stephen Glover criticises UK prime minister Keir Starmer for attending COP29 last month, accusing him of being “deranged”. 

While 2024 will be remembered for “many pioneering events”, a “darker first looms large over” it – the first year to “cross the totemic climate target of 1.5C”, argues an editorial in New Scientist. The article notes that this does not mean the Paris Agreement has been breached, nor is it a sign that the “world is doomed”. Instead, it argues that, while this may still lead to pessimism, this is not necessarily a “bad thing”, adding: “But to achieve such goals, pessimism must rule. Pessimism doesn’t make for good photo ops. It asks ‘what if we fail?’ and ‘what if we are wrong?’ – questions that, if they are to be tackled, involve grappling with the deep uncertainties of our green transition, whether technological, social or economic. Doing otherwise is a recipe for failure.”

In other comment, Times columnist and reporter Patrick Hosking argues that the UK needs more “moonshots” to reach net-zero. A separate piece in the Times by climate-sceptic columnist Juliet Samuels discusses the high power prices in Germany, arguing the country “cannot even begin to address the problem because of an ideological commitment to renewable electricity that depends on ample sunshine and wind”. And the Washington Post explores how Elon Musk’s shift from “one of America’s most outspoken voices on the threat of climate change” to arguing it is “overstated” could influence incoming president Donald Trump.

There could be a higher risk of offshore wind turbines “yielding and buckling” during more intense tropical cyclones in the US in the future, a new study finds. Using climate models, data on tropical cyclone frequency and turbine fragility analysis, the researchers project more frequent and intense tropical cyclones. The probabilities of turbines yielding and buckling in these storms could increase by 37% and 13%, respectively, from a 20-year tropical cyclone – which could occur every 12.7 years on average in future, the study finds.