UK prime minister Keir Starmer will speak at COP29 later today, where he will announce a new target for the UK to cut emissions by 81% compared with 1990 levels by 2035, according to a Guardian “exclusive”. The newspaper reports that the “stringent” new target is in line with the recommendations of the Climate Change Committee. It continues: “The UK is one of the first countries to announce a nationally determined contribution (NDC), which are not due until February next year…The goal would be achieved by decarbonising the power sector and through a massive expansion of offshore wind, as well as through investments in carbon capture and storage and nuclear energy…Few big countries have yet come up with NDCs.” The Press Association adds: “Starmer has said he will not be ‘telling people how to live their lives’ as part of plans to reach the UK’s new emissions reduction target.” The Daily Telegraph reports that Starmer will also use his speech to announce his decision to “hand up to £200m to offshore wind companies to build factories in traditional oil and gas areas”. The newspaper continues: “[The firms] will be eligible for tens of millions to establish factories building turbine blades, cables and ports under the government’s new ‘clean industry bonus’.” BusinessGreen adds: “The move delivers on a Labour manifesto commitment and will see developers offered a provisional £27m per gigawatt (GW) of new offshore wind capacity, which means that if an additional 7GW to 8GW of offshore wind capacity is delivered bonus payments could reach up to £200m.” The Times reports that Starmer has said the private sector needs to “pay its fair share” to help developing countries. It adds: “The prime minister said he would not promise any further funds to poorer nations as he called on companies to contribute to a pool of more than $1tn a year in climate relief.” The Press Association reports that Starmer is “expected to argue that the climate transition presents an almost $7tn (£5.43tn) investment opportunity”. The Daily Mail reports that Starmer “threw down the gauntlet to Donald Trump at the COP29 summit today by urging him to ‘show leadership’ on climate change”. The Daily Telegraph covers Starmer’s arrival at COP29 under the headline “Starmer and Taliban to attend COP29 climate talks as other world leaders snub summit,” while the Daily Mail runs the headline “Why IS Starmer attending COP29 summit? PM faces demands for UK to pay into $1TRILLION climate fund as he heads to Azerbaijan despite leaders from US, Germany, EU, China and India staying away.”

Separately, the Daily Telegraph reports: “Keir Starmer is to hand up to £200m to offshore wind companies to build factories in traditional oil and gas areas, he will announce at the COP29 climate change summit on Tuesday. Wind farms will be eligible for tens of millions to establish factories building turbine blades, cables and ports under the government’s new clean industry bonus.”

“Oil giant Shell has won a landmark case in the Dutch courts, overturning an earlier ruling requiring it to cut its carbon emissions by 45%,” BBC News reports. The outlet explains that three years ago, a court in the Hague sided with Friends of the Earth and 17,000 Dutch citizens by requiring Shell to reduce its CO2 emissions. However, it says the ruling has now been overturned in the appeals court. It continues: “Friends of the Earth Netherlands said the ruling was a setback that affected them deeply. They can now take their case against Shell to the Supreme Court – but a final verdict in this far-reaching case could be years away…Shell’s successful appeal could have far-reaching implications for corporate climate responsibility. A number of environmental groups around the world are now trying to force companies and governments to comply with the accords through the courts.” The Associated Press explains that in a written summary of the ruling, “the court said that Shell has a duty of care to limit its emissions, but it annulled the lower court’s decision because it was ‘unable to establish that the social standard of care entails an obligation for Shell to reduce its CO2 emissions by 45%, or some other percentage’.” It adds: “Presiding judge Carla Joustra said that Shell already has targets for climate-warming carbon emissions that are in line with demands of Friends of the Earth – both for what it directly produces and for emissions produced by energy the company purchase from others.” Reuters, Sky News, CNN, the Daily Telegraph, Deutsche Welle and also cover the news.

Donald Trump will nominate former Republican congressman Lee Zeldin to head up the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the New York Times reports. The newspaper notes that Trump campaigned on promises to “kill” and “cancel” EPA rules, and says that Zeldin’s position is expected to be “central to Trump’s plans to dismantle landmark climate regulations”. The paper continues: “Some people on Trump’s transition team say the agency needs a wholesale makeover and are even discussing moving the EPA headquarters and its 7,000 workers out of Washington, DC, according to multiple people involved in the discussions who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to talk about the transition.” The Hill says: “In an interview with Fox News, Zeldin said that in the first 100 days, the Trump administration would ‘roll back regulations that are forcing businesses to be able to struggle.’” According to the Guardian, Zeldin said “he was looking forward to cutting red tape as the EPA administrator”. It adds: “The EPA nominee, who will have to be confirmed by the US Senate, has rarely spoken out on environmental or climate issues, although he said in 2014 he was ‘not sold yet on the whole argument that we have as serious a problem as other people are’ with global heating, and added in 2018 that he did not support the Paris climate agreement, which Trump is again expected to withdraw the US from.” The newspaper says that Zeldin is “expected to oversee an overhaul of the EPA that will rival anything seen since its foundation in 1970”. The Guardian adds: “When he was last president, Trump gutted more than 100 environmental rules and vowed to only leave a ‘little bit of the EPA’ left ‘because you can’t destroy business’, prompting hundreds of agency staff to leave amid a firestorm of political interference and retaliation against civil servants. An even greater exodus is expected this time, with staff fearing they are frontline targets in what could be the biggest upheaval in the agency’s 50-year history.” Reuters reports that Zeldin “often voted against legislation on green issues including a measure to stop oil companies from price gouging”. The Independent says that he “voted against environmental bills 85% of the time”. The Los Angeles Times says that “the reaction from environmentalists was mixed”.

Elsewhere, Politico warns that “no leaders remain to check Trump’s climate wreckage”. It says: “The last time Donald Trump entered the White House and menaced efforts to stop the climate from overheating, affronted world leaders closed ranks against him. Such defiance and unity are practically unthinkable this time.” Meanwhile, at a COP29 press conference, American climate negotiator John Podesta “struck a defiant but realistic tone”, the Associated Press reports. Podesta said the Biden administration is still negotiating even as it prepares to leave, according to the newswire. It adds: “Another senior US official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said other countries are still working with American diplomats because they care what the US thinks and any agreement struck here must be by consensus. Outside analysts had speculated the US would be ignored.” E&E News also quotes Podesta saying: “This is not the end of our fight for a cleaner, safer planet. Facts are still facts. Science is still science. The fight is bigger than one election, one political cycle in one country.” BusinessGreen says that Podesta “insisted” that the Inflation Reduction Act “is robust enough to withstand a potential assault from the incoming Donald Trump presidency”. BBC News and the Los Angeles Times also cover Podesta’s comments. The Independent reports that COP29 opened with “undercurrent of anxiety over Donald Trump’s return to the White House”. The Wall Street Journal says that Trump’s victory “leaves China calling the shots at COP29”. CBS News, the Hindu, Inside Story, Mongabay also discuss the implications of Trump’s win for COP29.

In other US news, CNN reports that the White House “is racing to dole out remaining funds appropriated from key legislation president Joe Biden signed” before Trump takes office in ten weeks – including allocating grants for “climate initiatives”. The Associated Press reports that Californian governor Gavin Newsom “plans to meet with the Biden administration this week to discuss zero-emission vehicles and disaster relief”. The Times says: “Donald Trump’s support for a natural gas pipeline in Alaska has helped to lift shares in a UK-listed oil and gas explorer by more than 20%.” Meanwhile, the Associated Press reports that wildfires are raging on both coasts of the US. NBC News, the Guardian and the Independent also report on the fires. 

An agreement on Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, governing international carbon markets, was reached late on the first day of COP29, “breaking a years-long deadlock and paving the way for rich countries to pay for cheap climate action abroad while delaying expensive emission cuts at home”, the Guardian reports. The newspaper says the agreement was “hailed by the hosts as an early win”, but adds that “critics have warned the rules were rushed through without following proper process”. It continues: “The agreement is expected to provide the clarity needed to trade emissions within a global carbon market, supervised by the UN, that would be open to companies as well as countries. A separate Article [6.2] on the trade of carbon credits between individual nations will be addressed later in the COP29 negotiations.” Climate Home News says that after two successive COPs failed to agree on guidance for developing the carbon-credit methodologies, the Article 6.4 supervisory body has “taken matters into its own hands”. Instead of sending the documents round for recommendations, the committee gave countries “one binary decision to make: approve or reject the whole approach”, according to the outlet. However, the outlet warns that many delegates criticised the move, including a negotiator from Tuvalu who argued that the process sidestepped proper scrutiny. The Financial Times quotes a COP29 delegate who called the decision a “backdoor deal”. The Associated Press says the decision could free up to $250bn in spending a year to help poor nations, according to COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev. Reuters reports that according to one negotiator, Monday’s deal “could allow a UN-backed global carbon market, which has been years in the making, to start up as soon as next year”.

In other COP29 news, Reuters reports that United Nations secretary-general Antonio Guterres told world leaders earlier today to “pay up” to prevent climate-led humanitarian disasters. The Guardian outlines “which climate finance ideas are most likely to work” at COP29, including wealth taxes, a reform of the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and other multilateral development banks and levies on flying and shipping. The Associated Press reports that climate activist Greta Thunberg attended a rally in Georgia on Monday to protest against Azerbaijan hosting the conference. Separately, the Associated Press says that host country Azerbaijan is “accused of ramping up repression of critics”. The Hindu, BBC News, the Los Angeles Times, the Independent and Al Jazeera have also published overviews of COP29. And the Guardian has started a live blog of day two at COP.

This year is on track to be the hottest on record, according to the latest state of the climate report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Press Association reports. The newswire says that, according to the report, global average temperatures for January to September 2024 were 1.54C above pre-industrial levels. However, it says WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo emphasised that “this does not mean that we have failed to meet the Paris Agreement”. The newswire continues: “The WMO said that while long-term warming measured over decades remains below 1.5C, the past 10 years are the warmest on record, ocean heat reached new records in 2023, sea-level rise is accelerating, and Antarctic sea-ice extent is at its second-lowest level on record.” BusinessGreen adds that, “according to the report, based on long-term averages global warming is currently likely to be about 1.3C above the 1850-1900 baseline”. The Economic Times of India reports that, according to separate analysis from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2024 will likely be more than 1.55C above the 1850-1900 average. It adds: “This does not amount to a breach of the Paris deal, which strives to limit global warming to below 2C and preferably 1.5C, because that is measured over decades and not individual years.” Inside Climate News presents findings from “the latest batch of international climate reports intended to inform and drive the negotiations at COP29”. These include the World Weather Attribution study on the 10 deadliest disasters, the UNEP Gap report, the UNEP adaptation gap report and the IEA 2024 world energy outlook. (See Carbon Brief’s latest “state of the climate” analysis published last week: “2024 will be first year above 1.5C of global warming.”)

Meanwhile, the New Scientist covers a new study which finds that the planet has warmed by 1.5C since the year 1700. The piece says: “Most assessments of global warming use 1850-1900 as a baseline, but researchers have now established a new pre-industrial reference by using Antarctic ice cores to estimate the average temperature before 1700.” The article quotes a scientist not involved in the study who “warns that changing the baseline used in assessments could be seen as ‘moving the goalposts’ for climate action”. The Daily Mail covers the study under the headline “The world has ALREADY exceeded the critical 1.5C warming threshold, study warns – and scientists say time is running out to curb climate change.” Bloomberg uses the headline: “Global warming is already on the cusp of 1.5C, new research finds.”

Oil companies Shell, Ithaca and Equinor are “set to concede that the UK government made a legal error in granting them licences for two major new offshore developments”, according to the Financial Times. However, the companies will still argue that they “should be allowed to press on with the two projects, Rosebank in the north Atlantic and Jackdaw in the North Sea”, according to the newspaper. It continues: “The arguments are set out in documents seen by the Financial Times ahead of a hearing of judicial reviews brought by Greenpeace and Uplift, two environmental charities. The two have both challenged the government’s granting of permission for the projects because the environmental impact assessment considered only the emissions created in extracting the fuels and ignored the effects of burning them. Both judicial reviews, which could lead to the projects’ cancellation, are being considered in a single hearing expected to last four days this week, starting on Tuesday at the Court of Session, Scotland’s highest civil court, in Edinburgh. The UK government in August announced it would not contest the review, leaving the oil companies to fight the case.” BBC News reports that the legal challenge is “set to begin” at the court of session in Edinburgh. “If the challenge is successful, operators would have to resubmit environmental impact assessments for approval before drilling can begin,” it says. The Press Association also covers the story. 

In other UK news, the Financial Times reports that “new homes in England will be banned from having gas heating systems under long-awaited government building regulations that are expected to be announced next year but will not kick in until 2027”. According to the newspaper, once the rules kick in, builders will be “required to introduce electric heat pumps or other non-gas heating systems in most new builds”. The Daily Telegraph reports that “rules regarding the gas boiler ban are expected to be announced as early as May next year, although they are unlikely to be enforced until the relevant legislation takes effect in 2026”. Separately, the newspaper has published an analysis finding that “five million acres of farmland is at risk of being sold off as a result of Labour’s inheritance tax raid on farmers”.

China has “made clear its opposition to introducing debt discussions into the climate agenda” while also “showcasing [its] small and beautiful projects in African countries” ahead of COP29, the geopolitics-focused news outlet China Global South Project reports. China is “emphasising international solidarity” and “criticising what it describes as unilateral and protectionist measures”, the news outlet adds. Chinese business news outlet 21st Century Business Herald quotes environment ministry director Xia Yingxian saying that COP29 is a “critical point for climate finance negotiations” and developed countries must “fulfil their commitment to provide $100bn annually in climate finance”. Agence France-Presse says that Beijing “firmly” has rejected calls to expand the donor base for climate finance, with a Chinese official warning in a “closed-door session” that talks should not “aim to ‘renegotiate’ existing agreements”. Shanghai-based news outlet the Paper quotes Zhao Yingmin, head of the Chinese delegation, saying at a COP29 side-event: “No matter how the international situation changes, China will actively respond to climate change and unswervingly take the path of green and low-carbon development.” State-run newspaper China Daily says that developed countries must show “unwavering commitment” at COP29 to “combat the climate crisis they have largely wrought”. State-run newswire Xinhua says that China’s special envoy for climate change Liu Zhenmin has called on developed countries and the EU to shoulder more funding responsibility, adding that China would “continue supporting developing countries through south-south cooperation”. The Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily says that China has “contributed wisdom and strength to global climate governance”, adding that COP29 is “a crucial turning point” in addressing climate change. The Wall Street Journal says that poorer countries “increasingly look to Beijing for help shifting away from fossil fuels” following the prospect of a second Trump administration.

Separately, the EU is “actively subsidising the region’s green transition” through “grants, tax incentives, low-interest loans, loan guarantees, and price subsidies”, according to a new report covered by business news outlet Yicai. The UK has held “urgent talks” with British Steel’s Chinese owner Jingye to “raid Labour’s £2.5bn ‘green steel’ war chest to try to persuade the company not to close its UK operations”, the Financial Times reports. The Global Times publishes a comment article arguing that, for India to “develop a domestic solar sector as strong as China’s”, it needs to “recognise that merely enhancing localised manufacturing capabilities is insufficient”, as “continuous” technological achievements are also key. Reuters reports that China and Indonesia have “signed deals worth $10bn”, including in “new energy”. Elsewhere, industry news outlet BJX News reports that China has issued a notice on “further regulating market transaction behaviours in the electricity market”. Xinhua reports that China launched its “first high-resolution methane monitoring commercial satellite” on Monday.

COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev writes in the Guardian that private investors must “step up” to provide finance for developing nations. Babayev notes that a new climate finance target is needed, but says that “with any consensus process involving 198 parties, each wielding an effective veto, disagreements are inevitable”. He argues that it is possible for the world to quickly come up with trillions of dollars in funding, noting that when Covid-19 hit, “advanced economies marshalled $8tn over the course of just 48 months to support their citizens and businesses”. He continues: “But the onus cannot fall entirely on government purses. Unleashing private finance for developing countries’ transition has long been an ambition of climate talks.”

Elsewhere, an editorial in Le Monde argues that Azerbaijan is using COP29 to “restore its reputation”. It says: “Rather than focusing on a green transition, Azerbaijan’s autocratic leader, Ilham Aliyev, appears more intent on bolstering his damaged respectability.” It adds: “In parallel with the sudden greening of Baku, where bicycle lanes have appeared in the run-up to COP, repression has intensified in recent months.” In the Guardian, climate activist Greta Thunberg asks: “How can authoritarian, human rights-trashing Azerbaijan possibly host that?” Thunberg calls COPs “greenwashing conferences that legitimise countries’ failures to ensure a livable world and future”, adding that they allow “authoritarian regimes” to “continue violating human rights”. She continues: “Despite what it might claim, Azerbaijan has no ambition to take climate action.” She concludes: “We need immediate sanctions targeted against the regime and a halt to the import of Azerbaijani fossil fuels.” In the Conversation, Australian professors Ellie Martus and Fengshi Wu explain how “authoritarian fossil fuel states” operate. They say: “In previous years, authoritarian states have been able to block or undermine progress at international climate negotiations. Expect to see more of this at COP29.” They add: “Evidence suggests as climate change intensifies, authoritarianism could gain legitimacy over liberal democratic norms.” 

In other COP-related comment, Alvaro Lario – president of the UN International Fund for Agricultural Development and chair of UN Water – writes in Le Monde that “COP29 must prioritise supporting small-scale farmers in developing countries to adapt to the changing reality, both to safeguard global food security and keep costs down for consumers”. Also in Le Monde, Romain Weikmans, an international relations professor, explains the obstacles to financial transfers between global north and south countries to fund the green transition. Biswajit Dhar – acting president and distinguished professor at the council for social development, New Delhi, writes for the Business Times that “levels of climate finance provided to developing countries compare poorly with their actual requirements”. And Nina Ives and David Hall, academics from Auckland University of technology, discuss how to set a climate finance target in the Conversation. 

Laurence Tubiana, veteran climate negotiator and current CEO of the European Climate Foundation (which funds Carbon Brief), writes in Le Monde that “even without American support, Europe has a moral duty and a strategic interest in stepping up a gear, to show that climate action is good for the economy”. Tubiana says that “strong economic momentum makes it unlikely that other countries would follow president Donald Trump if he pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement”, and adds that “everywhere in the world, economic rationale prevails over ideology”. She adds that “if [countries] are serious about wanting to eliminate fossil fuels, they must use their new climate action plans, due in 2025, to present concrete strategies for achieving this”. 

Meanwhile, an editorial in the Financial Times says that a “Trump shadow” is hanging over COP29. The newspaper says that Trump’s election “is expected to taint a central task in Baku, where envoys are due to agree a new finance goal to help poorer countries deal with a hotter climate”. It concludes: “Ultimately, Trump is unlikely to kill off the COP process nor bring the energy transition to a halt. But the EU and China must be ready to help fill a US void. Further delay in a climate shift that is already going at a dangerously glacial pace is something the world cannot afford.” Adam Morton – Guardian Australia’s climate and environment editor – writes that, despite Trump’s victory, “the most consequential decisions affecting the climate over the next four years will not be made in Washington”. He argues that “more than ever the most important gauges of climate progress will be what happens in China”, and continues: “Delegates at the COP29 talks are watching for signs of whether [China] will respond to Trump’s return by taking a more aggressive leadership role on climate – not to save the planet, but to advance its strategic interests.”

Adam Vaughan, the environment editor at the Times, writes that the “vacuum of leadership at COP29 offers Britain the opportunity to become a ‘clean energy superpower’ in Baku”. He says: “The focus on a new climate finance target, creating a dynamic that pits rich countries against poor ones, means that the British government is anticipating a difficult meeting. Countries had factored in Donald Trump winning the American election but the reality casts a shadow and promises by Biden administration officials will not be taken seriously.” However, he notes that Keir Starmer is expected to announce a new emissions reduction target for Britain later today, arguing that as a result, “the UK will be at the vanguard of climate leadership”. 

Separately, the Times has published an editorial arguing that “the [UK] government’s unrealistic deadlines for a decarbonised grid and the end of petrol and diesel vehicle production threaten to dislocate the economy”. The editorial notes that Starmer is “almost alone among world leaders” in attending COP29. It adds that net-zero is a “laudable and necessary goal”, but says that “there is much to be uneasy about in Labour’s impetuous rush”. It concludes: “The benefits of being first to decarbonise are highly uncertain; the disadvantages are less so. Sir Keir showed pragmatism in ditching Labour’s £28bn green plan. Now, he must not stop but push down on the brake.” In the Daily Mail, climate sceptic commentator Ross Clark writes that “this net-zero crusade makes Britain a world beater – in pure lunacy”. And an editorial in the newspaper asks “is COP just hot air?” It says: “Sir Keir will no doubt make some grandiose statement about the UK’s ‘ambitious’ net-zero target. But as we contribute just 0.9% of the world’s emissions, it’s just a sideshow.” In the Daily Telegraph, Ella Whelan – a columnist at online magazine Spiked, which has often provided a platform to those opposed to action on climate change – calls COP29 an “embarrassment”. She says: “COP is something of a jolly for our prime minister, who has had a bit of a rough few months in power thanks to all the miserable decisions he keeps telling us he’s been forced to make.” Similarly, an editorial in the Sun asks “why is Keir Starmer at the pointless COP29 climate jolly as the world’s biggest ­polluters stay away?” 

Air temperatures inside caves in the European Alps increased by around 0.2C per decade over the past 20 years, new research finds. The research measures temperature change across four caves in the Alps and notes that warming will have “a particularly strong effect on the long-term preservation of perennial ice present in some of these caves”. The authors continue: “This is shown for an ice cave in the Austrian Alps, where enhanced melt of ice correlates with the observed warming. This cave (and similar ones) will not be able to hold perennial ice beyond the next decade.”