UK oil and gas firms are expected to be offered the chance of windfall tax relief this week, as part of the government’s “revamped” energy security and net-zero strategy dubbed “green day”, the FT reports. It reports: “Ministers have been discussing with the sector a promise that the 35% windfall levy on profits would cease to apply if energy prices fell below a specified “normal” long-term level. Officials close to the negotiations say Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, is open to the idea because it would provide tax certainty to a sector that is being encouraged to invest in new energy projects.” The FT adds that allies of the prime minister Rishi Sunak “insist” the day of announcements should be called “energy security day” rather than “green day” – “an indication that the package will also include measures to boost oil and gas production in the North Sea”. One such adviser tells the FT: “It’s not green day.”

The Guardian reports that the government plans to launch the strategy in oil and gas capital Aberdeen – “a clear signal of its intention to boost the fossil fuel industry while cutting key green measures”. According to the Guardian, “plans to extend offshore drilling for oil and gas will be cited as necessary to keep the lights on, and justified by investment in nascent carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, which is as yet untested at scale”. It adds that, according to its understanding, the strategy will “refuse to force oil and gas companies to stop flaring by 2025, as recommended in the review of net-zero by Chris Skidmore earlier this year”. In addition, “Ofgem will not gain important powers to include the net-zero target in its regulation of the energy sector” and there will be “no compulsion on housebuilders to fit rooftop solar to new housing” and “no comprehensive nationwide programme for insulation of the UK’s draughty housing stock”. The Guardian adds that the Treasury, the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, and the Department for Business and Trade are “at war over whether to introduce carbon border taxes”. It also reports that the day could see the UK accelerate the licensing of a major oil and gas field called Rosebank.

The Sunday Times reports that the government will announce £20bn for six carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects on the east coast of England and Merseyside as part of the strategy. It reports: “They are likely to include the Keadby 3 gas-fired power station in Lincolnshire and the HyNet hydrogen power scheme in Liverpool.” The paper adds that Grant Shapps, the energy and net-zero secretary, will “present CCS as a key part of Britain’s new industrial strategy and a successor to the dwindling North Sea oil and gas sector”, adding he is contemplating announcing the plans in Aberdeen or Hull.

The Sunday Telegraph reports that the strategy will see the government announce a “zero emissions vehicle mandate” that will require car manufacturers to produce a set proportion of electric vehicles from January 2024. It says: “Under the policy, electric vehicle sales will be converted into ‘certificates’. Manufacturers will be required to hold a certain number of certificates at the end of each year, either by selling electric vehicles or buying certificates from other manufacturers.”

The Sun on Sunday reports that, as part of the strategy, the government will announce a consultation on removing green levies from electricity bills. Writing in the Sun on Sunday, Shapps says: “We have been working hard on a plan – Powering Up Britain – to be unveiled next week, to drive down your bills for good, deliver among the ­cheapest wholesale electricity prices in Europe by 2035, and transform Britain’s energy security…I want to make sure bills come down and stay down, so we are better ­insulated from volatile international markets and the whims of tyrants. So we will take further steps to boost the energy efficiency of homes and other buildings – the quickest way we can cut bills. We are providing £1bn, on top of the £6.6bn already announced this Parliament, to help reduce demand through energy-efficiency measures such as insulation. On Thursday, we will also commit to addressing the imbalance between gas and electricity costs in household bills, to make electricity cheaper for the long term.”

CityAM reports that experts have “poured cold water” on hopes that the strategy will deliver on its promises. The Observer reports on fears that climate-focused announcements will be overshadowed by support for oil and gas.

Away from “green day” speculation, CityAM reports that the Conservative MP who chairs the environmental audit committee, Philip Dunne, has warned that the UK risks its net-zero goals with its ongoing refusal to set an end date for new offshore oil and gas projects, as other countries have done. The Guardian reports that Boris Johnson’s former climate adviser Sam Richards has backed Labour’s plans for greening the electricity grid by 2030. The Times reports on a warning from the National Infrastructure Commission that the UK is not moving fast enough to replace gas boilers with heat pumps. The Guardian, which also covers the report, adds that despite a government ambition for at least 600,000 heat pumps to be installed each year by 2028, only 55,000 were fitted in 2021, while 1.5m gas boilers were fitted. The Times also reports that the Confederation of Passenger Transport is to warn the government that it is not doing enough to decarbonise the coach industry. The Press Association reports that peers will on Tuesday vote on a law that could see people forced onto hydrogen boilers, as part of the Energy Bill. The Guardian also reports that the Scottish government is set to earn more than £260m after agreeing to lease areas of its seabed to floating offshore wind projects that can power oil and gas rigs.”

The European Commission and Germany announced a deal on Saturday that will allow the “continued sale of combustion-engine cars running exclusively on synthetic e-fuels even after the legislation comes into force mandating a policy of zero-emission sales only as of 2035”, reports Politico. It quotes European Commission’s climate commissioner Frans Timmermans’s post on Twitter: “We have found an agreement with Germany on the future use of e-fuels in cars…We will work now on getting the CO2 standards for cars regulation adopted as soon as possible.” Timmermans added that the Commission would “follow up swiftly” with “legal steps”, notes the outlet. It adds that it is “unclear” how the Commission is planning to do it, but it has agreed to establish a new category for vehicles running on e-fuels inside the existing “Euro 6” rulebook and then “integrate” that into the contentious CO2 standards legislation that mandates the 2035 phaseout date. Politico also quotes the German transport ministry saying they “want the process to be completed by autumn 2024”. The New York Times reports that Berlin’s decision to seek a change in the EU legislation caused “a rift” among EU governments. The outlet adds that some carmakers, including Porsche, supported Germany’s position. However, it “has provoked criticism from other manufacturers that have begun spending huge sums to shift their production toward electric vehicles in anticipation of the ban”. Reuters quotes Greenpeace’s Benjamin Stephan saying that “this stinky compromise undermines climate protection in transport and it harms Europe”. The newswire adds that Sweden, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency, says EU diplomats will vote today to approve the 2035 phaseout law formally. The FT reports that, on Friday, Germany also clashed with France over “whether to recognise nuclear power as equal to renewable energy”. The FT explains: “French president Emmanuel Macron, whose government has led a push for more favourable treatment of nuclear energy, discussed the handling of the fuel with German chancellor Olaf Scholz at a breakfast meeting on Friday as the two sides clash over the treatment of the fuel. Following the meeting, the French president told journalists that he was hopeful of finding an agreement with Germany, which is one of several countries opposing French efforts to have nuclear recognised in multiple legislative files related to the green transition.” Politico reports that ongoing clashes between Germany and France on climate policy are fuelling frustrations for other EU countries, with a minister from one country describing it as “really, really annoying for everybody”.

Meanwhile, in other Germany news, Der Spiegel reports that the referendum held yesterday for Berlin to become “climate neutral” by 2030 instead of 2045 has failed due to a lack of votes. Climate activists from Climate Reset Berlin wanted to use the referendum to change the state energy transition law, notes the outlet. At least 80% of Berlin’s energy comes from fossil fuel sources, adds Deutsche Welle. It quotes city’s mayor Franziska Giffey saying that the result “shows that the majority of Berliners also see that the demands of the referendum could not have been implemented – not even if they were cast into law.” The referendum came as Germany’s conservative CDU party is negotiating a possible coalition with the Social Democrats in the city after its victory, “driving the environmentalist Greens into opposition’, explains Reuters. 

Elsewhere, Die Zeit reports that the some German federal states want to designate new areas for wind power much faster than the federal government stipulates by law, according to a survey of all 16 state governments conducted by Der Spiegel. The outlet explains that federal lands have until 2032 to enable the construction of new wind turbines on a precisely defined part of their territory and achieve the energy transition goals. However, according to the report, some states want to be ready seven years before the deadline, including Baden-Württemberg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Lower Saxony, Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein. In addition, Power Technology reports that German power generation company RWE has commenced operation of its 342 megawatts (MW) offshore wind farm called Kaskasi, built with an investment of nearly €800m. The outlet notes that the facility was officially put into service in the presence of the German economy minister Robert Habeck who said that “offshore wind is a key driver of the energy transition…We have, therefore, increased the expansion targets in the German Offshore Wind Energy Act to at least 30 gigawatts (GW) by 2030”.

Finally, EurActiv reports that Denmark and Germany want to build a land-based hydrogen pipeline across the two countries’ borders by 2028, making it easier for Germany to import large volumes of hydrogen to fuel its industry.

The Global Times, a state-supporting newspaper, reports that China’s economy is seeing a “strong rebound“ which “matters for the country itself and matters for the world”, citing Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) who was speaking during a panel discussion at the 2023 China Development Forum over the weekend. According to a statement that the IMF sent to the Global Times, Georgieva said that the robust rebound means China is “set to account for around one third of global growth in 2023 – giving a welcome lift to the world economy”. China Daily says that with China “firmly committed to opening-up and continuing to expand market access while improving the business climate and services for foreign investors, more and more foreign firms will feel that investing in China is investing in the future”, according to “government officials and business executives”. Stefan Hartung, board chairman of Robert Bosch, is quoted saying the German industrial and technology group will “strengthen the layout and development of new energy vehicle-related products in China”, the state-run newspaper notes.

Tokyo-based Nikkei Asia writes that Extreme Entropy Technology, a Chinese startup “providing artificial intelligence-driven energy services, has raised nearly 100m yuan ($14.5m) in a Series B funding round”. Reuters focuses on Saudi Aramco’s “affirmation” on Sunday of “its support for China’s long-term energy security and development”. The company’s CEO Amin Nasser said that the company has “partnerships and emission-reducing technologies with China to make lower carbon products”, the newswire notes.

Finally, the S&P Global Commodity Insights carries a comment piece by Eric Yep, titled: “How China’s long-term roadmap could impact energy security, commodities.” He writes: “With energy security taking a backseat at China’s most important political meetings of the year, this means that recent efforts to bolster energy security through domestic mechanisms have been successful and China feels it is able to weather any immediate disruptions to supply or markets.”

Sky News reports that a “major incident” has been declared after an oil leak from an onshore field in Dorset on Sunday. It says: “The UK Health Security Agency in the South West said members of the public should not swim in Poole Harbour or the surrounding area until further notice after 200 barrels of reservoir fluid, consisting of 85% water and 15% oil, leaked into the water. The leak has come from the Wytch Farm facility in the Purbecks, which is one of the largest onshore oil fields in Europe.” BBC News reports that a clean-up operation is now underway, with companies “specialising in oil spill management” being mobilised.

Writing in the Independent, retired British diplomat Sir Peter Ricketts and climate scientist Dr Emily Shuckburgh argue that climate change poses a risk to the UK’s national security. They write: “This planetary crisis is a defining test for the multilateral system. Britain, as a longstanding champion of the international order, has a responsibility to play a leading role in coordinating an effective response. The overriding priority is to go faster in cutting emissions. Britain has been a leader on climate and was the first major economy to set a legally binding net zero target. Revolutionary innovations emanate from our universities and beyond, and we have the second-largest installed offshore wind capacity of any country in the world.” However, they add that the UK must also help developing countries cope with extreme weather, saying: “The Loss and Damage Fund created at the COP27 climate summit in Egypt last year marks a recognition by the wealthier nations that financing will be essential to assist and protect the most vulnerable. But the money on the table is still far short of what is needed. By helping others respond to climate change, we are also limiting the shocks to our own food supply. We must act now to protect the nations that grow our food.”

Elsewhere, an editorial in the Sun on Sunday backs a government plan to remove green levies from electricity bills (see above), saying they were “long overdue for reform”. The Daily Telegraph’s industry editor Howard Mustoe says that industry experts are less concerned with “green day” (see above) and more with its Advanced Manufacturing Plan, which is likely to see new industrial subsidies announced as part of the UK’s answer to the US Inflation Reduction Act. In the House magazine, Stonehaven policy director Adam Bell explains why it is difficult to decarbonise the UK’s houses.

In addition, the Sunday Times gives space to climate-sceptic columnist Rod Liddle, who writes on a plan to cut down part of an orchard in Cambridge in order to build a new “green” bus lane. “It is tempting to gloat,” he says.

In the Washington Post, “climate zeitgeist” reporter Shannon Osaka has a feature on the rise of “climate doomers”, who incorrectly spread the message that it is too late to tackle climate change. The article quotes Carbon Brief’s climate science contributor Dr Zeke Hausfather, who says: “It’s fair to say that recently many of us climate scientists have spent more time arguing with the doomers than with the deniers.”

Elsewhere, the Conversation carries an opinion article by Prof Kevin Anderson at the University of Manchester, who describes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach to climate communication as “too conservative”. In addition, Sky News publishes a short documentary on how the brain is likely to respond to the gloomy messages contained within in the latest IPCC report.

In the Guardian, Good Law Project director Joylon Maugham writes about his decision to join more than 100 lawyers in a declaration to refuse to prosecutive peaceful climate activists. He says: “The law is not always right. Sometimes the law does not reflect the democratic preferences of the people. Sometimes the law is ugly and sometimes it is wrong. Sometimes it evidences the pernicious influence of money on politics. Sometimes the law is the victory dance of power. Like big tobacco, the fossil fuel industry has known for decades what its activities mean. They mean the loss of human life and property, which the civil law should prevent but does not. The scientific evidence is that global heating, the natural and inevitable consequence of its actions, will cause the deaths of huge numbers of people. The criminal law should punish this but it does not. Nor does the law recognise a crime of ecocide to deter the destruction of the planet. The law works for the fossil fuel industry – but it does not work for us.” The Guardian also covers the declaration in a news story.

New research investigates the “most extreme wheat yield decline” in France’s recent history, which saw some districts losing 55% yield in 2016. The authors find that “compounding climate effects caused the extreme yield decline”, noting: “​​The flowering stage was affected by prolonged cloud cover and heavy rainfall when 31% of the loss in grain yield was incurred from reduced solar radiation and 19% from floret damage.” The paper also details the impact of “soil anoxia”, “fungal foliar diseases” and “ear blight”. The authors estimate that there is likely to be a higher frequency of extremely low wheat yields under future climate change.

A paper presents a new “model-data fusion product” covering 10 global surface indicators of ocean acidification. The product is based on 14 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), along with three recent observational ocean carbon data products, the paper says. The evolution of these indicators is presented on a one-degree grid of the global surface ocean as decadal averages every 10 years from pre-industrial conditions (1750), through to historical conditions (1850-2010) and then five future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) over the rest of the 21st century. The data and global maps of the indicators are available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information.