One of the UK’s largest business lobby groups, the CBI, has called on the chancellor Jeremy Hunt to set out a clear net-zero emissions investment plan in the budget to give companies an incentive to spend money on the green transition, reports the Times. The newspaper continues: “The CBI has written to Hunt ahead of his pre-election budget on 6 March, demanding that the Treasury highlights gaps in green spending throughout the economy as part of a wide-ranging investment plan to ensure that Britain meets its legally binding commitment to reduce emissions. The call comes as the Labour Party has begun to walk away from its promise to set up a green investment fund worth £28bn, instead committing to additional climate spending only if it is consistent with the party’s planned fiscal rules. In its letter, the CBI said that ‘it is acknowledged that the majority of investment needed to reach net-zero will come from the private sector. But to date, there has been little policy clarity on a plan to incentivise investment’. It said the government’s adoption of a ‘net-zero investment plan’ should ‘identify where green investment gaps lie and where private finance can be crowded in to close sectoral financial gaps, address market barriers and hit our net-zero targets’.”

In other UK news, the Financial Times reports that UK prime minister Rishi Sunak is “poised to drop plans to fine boiler makers who fail to meet strict production targets for heat pumps in the UK prime minister’s latest retreat from measures to tackle climate change”. The story was first reported by the Sunday Times on its frontcover saying the Conservatives plan to “ditch the boiler tax”. It opens its article: “The energy secretary [Clare Coutinho] is planning to scrap the so-called boiler tax in a move that will be welcomed by homeowners facing the prospect of having to spend money to replace an old appliance.” [Several boiler manufacturers have raised prices in a move they say reflects the impact of the proposed “clean heat market mechanism”. However, their price hikes are based on not selling any heat pumps at all. The moves were previously described by Coutinho as “price gouging”, the Sunday Times notes, triggering a potential investigation by the Competition and Markets Authority.] The Daily Express covers comments made by “billionaire Tory donor” John Caudwell who has accused the UK of “dithering on the sidelines” in the “global race for green technology”. The newspaper adds: “The founder of Phones4U, the biggest donor to the Conservative party before the last election, has hit out at the government for its lack of ambition ahead of the spring budget.” He is quoted saying: “We are locked into a global race for green technology, where funding, infrastructure and talent are critical to our national prosperity. But, as I have argued, Britain is dithering on the sidelines as China, the US and Europe are busy reaping the rewards of this opportunity.” The Times carries a report headlined: “Firms say high energy costs will drive up their prices. More than 80% of British companies expect to increase the prices of their goods and services over the next two years.” [UK energy bills are largely set by the cost of gas, which remains elevated two years after the global energy crisis caused by record gas prices.]

Meanwhile, the Sunday Telegraph has interviewed Octopus Energy chief Greg Jackson who warns that grid connection delays and planning hold-ups could force [the company] to shift billions of pounds in investment overseas”. The article continues: “Jackson believes fossil fuel companies are responsible for whipping up a backlash against the transition, as they are fearful of renewables replacing oil and gas. He said: ‘I think 2023/24 is the year in which fossil fuel companies have woken up to the very real threat that their businesses now face. Already, electric vehicles are taking 1.5m barrels of oil off the road every day. That’s enough for oil companies to start noticing problems and you are beginning to see some scale back production forecasts. As a result, some are trying to foster a backlash against the [net-zero] transition. I think some of them are beginning to get very worried about what their future looks like.’” Separately, BBC News reports that “millions of barrels of fuel made from Russian oil are still being imported to the UK despite sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine, research claims”. 

Finally, there is continuing media focus on the opposition Labour party’s plans for the net-zero transition, should it win the next general election. The Observer leads its frontpage with a report on how the party is Labour “ditching its radical reforms as it prepares ‘bombproof’ election manifesto”. The newspaper says the party is “backing away from its £28bn-a-year commitment on green investment (while sticking to the overall drive to achieve clean energy by 2030)”. Bloomberg says that Labour’s repeated position that it will decide what is affordable only once it is in office is a “logical stance”. The Daily Telegraph covers analysis by Wood Mackenzie which concludes that “three-quarters of all the North Sea’s new oil and gas projects would be rendered economically unviable under Labour’s tax proposals”. And the Sunday Telegraph claims that “Labour is blocking the appointment of a former Barclays chief [Sir Ian Cheshire] as head of Britain’s net-zero watchdog [the Climate Change Committee], claiming that the government’s shortlist for the job was insufficiently ‘diverse’”. [For more on Labour’s net-zero spending pledge, see Comment below.]  

Poland will no longer take the EU to court in an attempt to cancel numerous climate change policies, sources “familiar with the matter” have told Reuters. The newswire adds that the new Polish government, led by the “centrist” prime minister Donald Tusk, is now preparing to withdraw four lawsuits the previous government had filed aimed at annulling the following: a law banning new CO2-emitting car sales from 2035; an EU policy setting national emissions-cutting targets; changes to the EU’s carbon market; and goals to protect forests so they can store more carbon. Reuters continues: “The sources said the Tusk government intends to cancel the court cases and is coordinating a decision between the government ministries involved…The government has already signalled plans to change some national climate policies, to replace coal with renewable energy faster, and said that any changes would include support for affected workers and industries.”

Meanwhile, in other EU news, Reuters reports that “EU energy officials and analysts” have “dismissed industry’s warnings” by saying that “Europe will have enough gas supply for the next 10 years and thereafter despite a move by the US administration to pause approvals on new liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants”.

The world needs to mobilise at least $2.4tn to keep global climate change goals within reach, the United Nations climate chief said in a speech in Baku on Friday, reports Reuters. The newswires adds: “Simon Stiell, the UNFCCC’s executive secretary, addressed a group of students at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy in Baku, host of the COP29 climate summit in November, laying out the steps that need to be taken this year to turn the commitments made at last year’s summit in Dubai into reality.” Steill is reported saying “it’s clear that to achieve this transition, we need money, and lots of it – $2.4tn, if not more,” but this excludes China, citing a report released in December from the High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance. Reuters explains that “climate finance will be the main focus of the Azerbaijan-hosted talks, where governments will be tasked with setting a new target post-2025 for raising money to support developing country efforts to cut emissions and adapt to the worsening impacts of climate change”. The New York Times says Stiell warned countries “against hiding behind loopholes”. It says he added: “Dodging the hard work ahead through selective interpretation would be entirely self-defeating for any government.” BusinessGreen notes that Stiell called for “torrents not trickles” in order to achieve a “climate breakthrough”.

Meanwhile, Inside Climate News has published an article headlined: “Policy experts say the UN climate talks need reform, but change would be difficult in the current political landscape.” It adds: “Limiting the size of the annual conference, eliminating conflicts of interest and adopting enforceable agreements with a voting system could help speed up global climate action, research shows.”

Officials in Chile have ordered curfews in cities across the central region of the country, where firefighters say at least 112 people have been killed, reports the Associated Press. Chilean president Gabriel Boric visited the region over the weekend telling media that unusually high temperatures, low humidity and high wind speeds were making it difficult to control the wildfires, AP adds. It continues: “Rodrigo Mundaca, the governor of the Valparaiso region…said [on] Sunday he believed some of the fires could have been intentionally caused, echoing a theory that had also been mentioned [on] Saturday by Boric.” Reuters says the fires are the nation’s worst disaster since the 2010 earthquake, adding “hundreds of people are still missing”. The newswire continues: “Although wildfires are not uncommon during the southern hemisphere’s summer, the lethality of these blazes stands out.” CNN’s report of the fires says: “Climate change and the El Niño weather phenomenon are driving forces behind an increasingly warm planet, scientists say, making events like heatwaves and wildfires more likely.” The Financial Times has published its “climate graphic of the week” showing “swaths of South America struggl[ing] with fires”.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, Reuters reports that “large swaths” of Australia have “sweltered through a heatwave as authorities warned of elevated bushfire risk in an already high-risk fire season during an El Niño weather pattern”.

China has released the full text of new regulations to govern its mandatory national carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS), the state-run newspaper China Daily says. The regulations “focus on the allocation of responsibilities, designating the state council’s ecological and environmental department to oversee and manage carbon emissions trading” and “specify details including the products eligible for trading, trading methods and the distribution of carbon emissions quotas”, the newspaper adds. Guangming Daily reports that the measures will come into effect on 1 May 2024 and are significant in that they “provide a clear legal basis for the operation and management” of the ETS. Elsewhere, the national development and reform commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planner, and other government departments have jointly issued a directive to strengthen the integration of “green electricity certificates and energy-saving and carbon reduction policies” in order to “vigorously promote” the consumption of non-fossil energy, reports BJX News. The policy proposes to “incorporate the corresponding traded volume of green certificates into the assessment of energy-saving targets for provincial governments during the 14th five-year period”, which would promote consumption of non-fossil energy, it says. The state-run Securities Times covers the same story, adding that China will accelerate efforts to define “functional boundaries and articulation between the green certificates [system], the national carbon [ETS] and the voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction mechanism [CCER]”. 

Meanwhile, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports that south-east Asia’s efforts aimed at “tripling renewable energy production in line with last year’s United Nations pledge” are likely to receive support from China’s “record solar installations” which will mean it has much higher capacity to export solar modules in 2024 and 2025, according to analysts. Another SCMP article reports that the city of Shenzhen plans to “achieve industrial output of more than 1.5tn yuan ($209bn) in its strategic emerging industries in 2024, which…includ[e] those specialising in new energy”. The state-run industry newspaper China Electric Power News says that China’s energy stakeholders pledged at the recent national energy work conference to “strengthen power reliability management”.

Separately, Politico quotes the governor of US state California Gavin Newsom’s climate aide, Lauren Sanchez, saying that “[Chinese former climate envoy] Xie [Zhenhua] will still be very engaged in the California-China relationship on climate, but we’re really thrilled that his successor has already been to California”. Shipping news site Safety4sea reports that the opening of a new shipping route between China and Russia is confirmed with the delivery of “nearly 20,000 tonnes of Russia-imported coal” by a cargo vessel to Shandong province. Finally, China Daily says that “at a time when the world is faced with multiple crises ranging from climate change to conflicts and inflation, calls have been made to emphasise the importance of the Group of 77 [nations] plus China as a mechanism for developing countries to make their collective voices heard”.

The German government’s climate and transformation fund (KTF) is facing a potential €10bn shortfall next year, posing a threat to solar and hydrogen projects, reports Bloomberg. The financial challenge stems from a constitutional ruling that prevents the transfer of more than €60bn from pandemic relief funds to the climate fund, explains the outlet. It quotes Jens Burchardt, a partner with Boston Consulting Group in Berlin, saying: “Germany should actually be investing massively this decade to accelerate the climate transformation, secure cheaper energy and transform our industry from a world based on cheap Russian gas.” Despite promises of subsidies from the economy and climate minister Robert Habeck, the fund’s resources, expected to total €49bn this year, are limited, notes Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Welle reports that German chancellor Olaf Scholz remains “optimistic” about “quadrupling” the amount of power generated through offshore wind farms by 2030, despite “Germany’s budget problems and growing bureaucratic challenges”. However, the outlet notes that industry figures have cast doubt on this goal, partly due to “inadequate seaport infrastructure”. It adds that, in a recent letter, Germany’s Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency warned that establishing certain North Sea grid connections could be delayed by up to two years due to converter construction bottlenecks.

Finally, Bild notes that wind energy was already the most significant source of electricity last year in Germany, contributing to almost one-third of the power mix, while coal came second at 26%. The outlet quotes Prof Volker Quaschning, an engineer and energy expert, saying: “Overall, Germany derives nearly 60% of its electricity from renewables.” Bloomberg adds that Germany wants to accelerate the expansion of offshore wind energy by removing environmental impact assessments that can sometimes delay projects.

There is widespread media coverage of the acquittal by a UK judge of Greta Thunberg and four fellow climate protestors who had been on trial in London for a public-order offence. “Thunberg stood trial with four other defendants who were arrested on 17 October outside a London hotel, where the Energy Intelligence Forum was hosting oil and gas industry leaders”, reports Reuters, adding: “All five were accused of failing to comply with an order made under the Public Order Act by police to move their protest to a designated area near the conference. They were all acquitted at Westminster Magistrates’ Court, in a ruling which throws into doubt other prosecutions of those facing the same charge from the 17 October demonstration. Judge John Law ruled that London’s Metropolitan Police acted unlawfully in imposing conditions on the protest and that therefore Thunberg had no case to answer. He said that police could have imposed lesser restrictions on the protest and the conditions that were imposed were not clear.” The Guardian, Sky News, Politico and the Associated Press were among the outlets also covering the news. Meanwhile, the Daily Telegraph has provided a platform to a climate-sceptic columnist to describe Thunberg as a “ruffian” and a “little bit loony”.

There is extensive continuing commentary across the UK media responding to the on-going reporting and briefing related to the UK Labour party’s proposed net-zero policies, should it win the next general election. An editorial in the Guardian says: “[Labour leader Keir Starmer’s] plan appears to have gone up in smoke. If so, that’s bad news for the environment and the economy. Inadequate public and private spending is holding back growth while there is a crying need for investment to decarbonise the UK. Other countries are already eyeing up the opportunities. New green industries could be worth $10tn to the global economy by 2050. Britain risks being left behind…The opposition’s fiscal rules are self-imposed restraints meant to suggest Labour is responsible. But what is more irresponsible than ditching a green industrial plan in the middle of a climate emergency? Labour will look pusillanimous if it simply accepts the Tory argument that its spending is unaffordable…voters want to know that Labour will change the country for the better rather than just muddling on.” In contrast, an editorial in the Sun says: “How can Labour seriously pretend its flagship £28bn-a-year eco policy lives on after pulling the plug on the funding? Is it now free? Will we get ‘clean power by 2030’ by conjuring from thin air all the nuclear power stations we’ll need? Of course not. It’s a fantasy.”

Meanwhile, a range of commentators focus on the story. Writing in the New Statesman, Labour MP Clive Lewis sets out “why £28bn should only be the start of Labour’s climate investment”. In the Guardian, Kate Aronoff has a piece headlined: “A message to Starmer from the US: ditching your £28bn climate plan isn’t just cowardly – it’s bad politics.” Also in the Guardian, environment editor Fiona Harvey explains why “Labour scrapping [its] £28bn green pledge could leave UK colder, sicker and poorer”. And a third commentary in the Guardian, this time by political correspondent Kiran Stacey, explains why “Labour’s mixed messages on £28bn green pledge put it in worst of all worlds”. BBC News’s Laura Kuenssberg notes that Labour’s original £28bn-a-year pledge was made “before Liz Truss’ mini-budget and the subsequent spike in interest rates”.

Elsewhere, in the Times, Philip Collins argues that “Labour must ditch [the] £28bn pledge to be heard”, adding: “The problem with £28bn is that it doesn’t say Labour is green on the environment. It says that Labour is green on the economy. All that pretty green, someone else’s money. ‘You can’t trust Labour on the economy,’ is all that Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt have left. This is Tory politics by numbers, and it makes no sense to hand them the data. The real shame of this glaring tactical error is that it obscures two facts that are both to the credit of the Labour Party. The first is that the stress on the number means that the policies have been lost. Economic prosperity really does need to become more environmentally sustainable. All serious businesses know this to be true and most welcome it. Conservation is, after all, just a more efficient use of resources.” Also in the Times, Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, says: “As a former member of the Climate Change Committee, I am not casting doubt on the importance of such investment, but if that commitment really is the No 1 priority, then it will constrain action elsewhere. Spending an additional £20bn here, without significant tax increases, will make offsetting planned cuts in other areas of public spending all but impossible.” And the i newspaper has a news feature which claims to tell the story “inside Labour’s green growth plan split”. 

Average annual temperatures of 7C are optimal for cattle meat production, with yields decreasing at higher and lower temperatures, new research finds. The authors combine country-level data on the annual meat yield from cattle farming and socioeconomic data over 1961-2020 with climate projections from general circulation models. They find that poorer countries will be the worst affected by rising global temperatures due to the higher baseline temperatures, with “the most pronounced effects observed under the upper-middle emissions scenario”.

A new paper finds that “the Covid-19 fiscal response missed many opportunities to advance climate adaptation and response (A&R)”. The authors assess around 8,000 government policies across 88 countries and find that $279-334bn – equivalent to 10-11% of Covid economic recovery spending – “potentially had direct A&R benefits”. However, they add that around 28% of recovery spending may have had negative impacts on A&R, by acting to “lock in non-resilient infrastructure”. They add: “Compared with climate mitigation, A&R received only one-third of the spending and was mentioned only one-seventh as frequently in policy documents”.

The number of “sudden turn from drought to flood” (STDF) events in China increased by 2.8 events per decade over 1961-2020, according to new research. The authors investigate the long-term trends and variability of STDFs in China over 1961-2020. They find that STDFs are prevalent in north and northeast China and the Yangtze River Delta. “The probability of a drought being followed by a severe flood is approaching 35% in northern and northeastern China,” they add. The increase has mainly occurred in late spring and early summer, and is mainly due to “increasing flood frequency and volatility of precipitation”, the paper finds.