Tens of millions of people in the US are under dangerous heat warnings today as cities such as Chicago began to face record-breaking temperatures, the Associated Press reports. It says: “States in the Midwest started to bake Monday in what the National Weather Service called a dangerous and long duration heatwave that was expected to stretch from Iowa to Maine into at least Friday.” On Monday, Chicago reached a new temperature record of 36.1C, AP adds. The Guardian says that the extreme heat is being “delivered by a high-pressure weather pattern that the federal weather prediction center says will be ‘potentially the longest experienced in decades for some locations’”. It continues: “Cities forecast to be hit by the heatwave include Chicago, St Louis, Indianapolis, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Boston, New York City and Albany, New York.” The newspaper adds that New York City has activated an emergency plan for the “dangerously high” heat, which includes opening cooling centres. According to the Guardian, New York mayor Eric Adams told a press conference on Monday: “We want to be clear, this is extremely hot for June and New Yorkers should not underestimate the heat. With climate change leading to more frequent and intense heat, summers are different than they were before, and so we should expect and be prepared for the hot weather that is coming.” The Washington Post has a city-by-city forecast of the extreme temperatures.

In the south, the Washington Post reports that a pair of tropical storms are forming over the Atlantic and could affect Texas and surrounding regions later this week. It says: “While neither will probably become a hurricane, both could bring tropical deluges and pockets of flooding. One or both could even earn a name; the first two names on the 2024 storm list are Alberto and Beryl.” On the west coast, the Associated Press reports that firefighters have gained more control over a large wildfire in the mountains north of Los Angeles after an “explosive weekend”.

Right-wing populist politician Nigel Farage has launched the Reform UK manifesto, including a pledge to “axe net-zero entirely”, the Guardian reports. BusinessGreen explains further: “The manifesto – which at 24 pages is a fraction of the length of the manifestos released by the main parties last week – is primarily focused on slashing levels of immigration and promising billions of pounds in tax cuts funded by deep cuts to public spending. But it also sets out plans to ditch the UK’s net-zero strategy, arguing scrapping energy levies and decarbonisation policies would save each household £500 a year and enable a fresh wave of investment in ‘Britain’s vast oil and gas reserves’ from which production has been steadily declining for decades.” The manifesto’s costings “suggest axing net-zero targets would enable £30bn a year in savings for the government”, BusinessGreen says, adding: “But the budget assumptions have already been criticised by economists and commentators, who suggested the scale of proposed tax and spending cuts were significantly larger than those proposed by former prime minister Liz Truss, which preceded the collapse of her government.” Elsewhere, BBC News reports that Scottish National Party (SNP) leader John Swinney has proposed a “social tariff” that would see people on low incomes, the elderly and disabled pay less on energy bills.

In addition, the Times reports that Offshore Energies UK, the trade body for North Sea energy production, has said that the number of jobs supported by the offshore energy sector could rise by 50%, “if supportive policy were to help to unlock spending”. The Times says: “It estimates that by the end of the decade there is potential for up to 225,000 people to be employed in the oil and gas, carbon capture and storage, offshore wind and hydrogen sectors. That would be up from 150,000 direct and indirect roles in place today. However, it warns that a failure to manage an oil and gas transition, a slow pace of offshore wind deployment and a lack of investment in other areas could lead to the loss of up to 24,000 positions.” The Guardian reports that the consumer group Which? has called for an overhaul of the energy performance certificates (EPC) system for homes after an investigation found “assessments riddled with inaccuracies and unhelpful advice that could cost homeowners thousands of pounds”. BusinessGreen speaks to UK renewable energy entrepreneur Dale Vince about “why he is backing Labour”. BBC News speaks to residents in the Welsh valleys concerned by the installation of a wind turbine.

China’s National Climate Center says that the nation is “experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves due to global warming”, reports state-run newspaper China Daily. It adds that the “average onset of high temperatures (those exceeding 35C) has advanced by 2.5 days per decade”. The average heatwave starting date has moved from 24 June in 1981-1990 to 7 June in 2011–2020, the outlet adds. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports that extreme weather continues to hit many parts of China, with torrential rain lashing the southern provinces while northern provinces face drought conditions that put agriculture products in danger. Reuters reports that “torrential rain and landslides in China’s coastal provinces of Guangdong and Fujian have killed nine people and left 17 missing”. 

Separately, the Associated Press reports that Chinese premier Li Qiang will end his Australian tour in Perth today, “where he will focus on China’s investment in critical minerals and clean energy”. Meanwhile, SCMP reports that, following the EU’s additional tariffs on China-made “new energy” vehicles (NEVs), China has announced an “anti-dumping investigation” into pork products imported from the EU. In a recent interview with China’s state news agency Xinhua, Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, director of the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) in Germany, says that “European countries will emerge as the losers” if the EU imposes extra duties on Chinese NEVs. The German Chamber of Commerce in East China, a business advocacy group, says that the EU tariffs “cannot offer protection to German carmakers or increase their competitiveness”, another SCMP report says. The Guardian looks at how Chinese car manufacturer BYD is “charging into Europe”.

Elsewhere, economic news outlet Jiemian reports that, according to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, China’s domestic sales of power and other (mainly energy storage) batteries reached 77.9 gigawatt hours (GWh) in May, a year-on-year increase of 40.7%. Another Jiemian report quotes Li Shujun, general manager of Zhongke Haina Technology, a Chinese battery technology company, saying that the sodium-ion batteries are expected to enter “the stage of commercialisation”, with a potential industry scale of 500-1,000GWh by 2030.

Finally, in an edited transcript of an interview with the Financial Times, Zhu Ming, a member of China’s “five-year plan” committee, says that “overcapacity is a concept that is not easy to define” and countries need to find a “middle way” between the “trade measures and the political rhetoric” to ease the trade tensions. Economic news outlet Yicai quotes Cui Dongshu from the China Passenger Car Association, saying that policy support, such as promoting NEVs in rural areas and providing income tax deductions for buyers, is needed to stimulate the domestic vehicle market. A Bloomberg editorial argues that “tariffs won’t bring the EU prosperity” and that “the fewer and more expensive” NEVs will undermine the energy transition that is already happening slowly in Europe. Reuters has a report under the headline: “Brazil joins race to loosen China’s grip on rare earths industry.” The Economist has an article on how China’s “giant solar industry is in turmoil”.

EU ministers have approved a new nature restoration law, “despite stiff opposition to the plans and threats by Austria that it would seek to annul the outcome of the vote”, the FT reports. It says: “[The law], which was passed by the bloc’s environment ministers on Monday, sets a legally binding target for EU countries to preserve a fifth of the bloc’s land and seas, but has been heavily contested by conservative, rightwing and farming groups…Environmental campaigners had said that if EU ministers did not approve the law, the bloc would fall foul of commitments under a UN biodiversity treaty signed in Montreal in 2022.” The FT says that the vote on the law was delayed after Hungary pulled its support for it in March, citing its impact on farmers’ incomes. Poland, the Netherlands, Sweden and Finland also opposed the law in the final ballot, the FT adds, while Belgium abstained. It continues: “But last-minute changes of heart from Austria and Slovakia, both of which had planned to abstain, allowed it to pass.” However, the vote from Austria came from climate minister Leonore Gewessler, a Green party politician, who did not obtain approval from her coalition government partner the conservative People’s party, the FT says. In a letter to Belgium, which is currently holding the EU presidency, Austria’s chancellor Karl Nehammer, from the People’s party, said Austria’s vote was “unlawful”, the newspaper adds, and that his party would seek criminal charges against Gewessler for “alleged abuse of power”. The Associated Press notes the law has partly fuelled months of farmers protests across Europe. [See Carbon Brief’s coverage of what the world agreed to in Montreal, what the EU restoration law means for climate and energy and the extent to which climate and nature policies were a factor in farmers protests in Europe.]

Athletes “have warned that extreme heat wrought by climate change could put competitors at risk during the Olympics in Paris”, the Times says. It continues: “A report produced with Olympians, University of Portsmouth academics and a US climate science team found that Paris is now 3.1C warmer in July and August than the last time it hosted the games a century ago…The Games in Paris will be held from 26 July to 11 August, with the Paralympics held later in August. The city has an average of nine more ‘scorching’ days a year, defined as 30C and above, than it did in 1924, according to Climate Central, a US science non-profit organisation”. Lord Coe, the president of World Athletics, tells the newspaper: “While global temperatures are continuing to rise, climate change should increasingly be viewed as an existential threat to sport.” The Times adds that athletes who spoke to the authors of the report said they were concerned about heat at the Olympics. Also covering the new report, the Guardian says: “The Paris Olympics could be the hottest Games on record, with leading athletes warning that the intense heat forecast for competition could lead to athletes collapsing or – in a worst-case scenario – dying in competition.” MailOnline and the Press Association also cover the report.

In the FT, Mark Carney, the UN special envoy on climate action and finance and a former governor of the Bank of England, says that voluntary carbon markets, where businesses can buy credits from carbon-cutting schemes to claim they have cut their own emissions, “can accelerate the pace of absolute emissions reductions…if well designed”. He adds: “They catalyse investment by accelerating the deployment of clean energy, improving the economics of new technologies and funding a socially just transition. They can play decisive roles in catalysing the enormous capital needed to transition from coal to clean generation in Asia and to accelerate nature-based solutions everywhere. But none of this will be possible unless these markets are built on solid foundations, with the right principles. The authorities must establish standards for end-to-end integrity – of supply, demand and markets. Social integrity must also ensure that benefits flow to local communities.” He continues: “The prize is huge if we get this right…Far from a distraction, there is growing evidence they will help more companies commit to ambitious net-zero goals and decarbonise faster.” [See Carbon Brief’s special series on why the voluntary carbon market currently does little to help tackle climate change.]

In the Conversation, authors of a recent Science policy forum arguing that no new fossil fuels are needed if the world is to limit global warming to 1.5C assess how the plans of major UK parties compare with climate science. It says: “Scientific assessments tell us that global warming above 1.5C will mean escalating danger to the environment, human health and the economy. We found that, in a world that limits warming to 1.5C, remaining global demand for fossil fuels could be met by assets that have already been built. This means that Labour’s plans do not go far enough. Even under existing licences, new oil and gas fields need not be opened, nor new platforms and pipelines built.”

Elsewhere, a Lex opinion in the Financial Times argues that Labour’s plan to raise the windfall tax on oil and gas producers could “further reduce the UK’s competitiveness”. The Daily Telegraph provides a platform to a retired academic with ties to a climate-sceptic lobby group (which it does not declare to its readers) under the headline: “Labour is about to destroy our energy grid.” Meanwhile, the Times assesses Conservative claims that Labour’s plan to decarbonise the energy grid by 2030 would cause “blackouts”, saying: “The Conservatives claim that the policy will mean there are times when renewable supply fails to meet demand for energy. Many – including some of Labour’s union supporters – see the 2030 target as implausibly ambitious and there are undoubtedly big questions for the party to answer about how it will make it happen. While Labour’s manifesto promises to ‘maintain a strategic reserve of gas power stations’ to avoid blackouts, the carbon capture and storage technology needed to use gas in a zero-emissions grid does not yet exist at sufficient scale. The Conservatives themselves are promising to decarbonise the grid by 2035, a plan which requires them to get 90% of the way there by Labour’s deadline. Sir John Armitt, head of the National Infrastructure Commission, says the difference between the two dates is not ‘that significant’, with both goals requiring big investment in pylons, wind farms and solar panels.”

In Climate Home News, Power Shift Africa director Mohamed Adow argues that the “best way to protect the world from the volatility of the US election” is to “set a clear and unambiguous path for future finance” at the COP29 climate summit. He says: “This goal is the key ingredient to tackling climate injustice, and how we help vulnerable people adapt to the climate crisis and fund the transition to a zero-carbon energy system. However, at the mid-year talks in Bonn this month, rich countries dragged their feet, blocked progress and deliberately offered only vague signals about their intentions.” African Arguments has an expert panel on whether Bonn delivered enough on climate finance. (See Carbon Brief’s in-depth summary of the key outcomes from last week’s Bonn negotiations.)

The area suitable for growing wild and cultivated cacao in Ecuador, the world’s fifth largest cacao producer, is expected to shift with climate change, new research says. The study draws on thousands of data records for cultivated and wild cacao to examine how present suitability for growing the crop could change under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). The authors say: “Our future projections predict a 8-16% contraction and 19-21% expansion of the currently suitable area of cultivated cacao, while wild cacao is expected to maintain most of its suitable area and experience a further 7-12% expansion in the future.”