European Commission vice-president Frans Timmermans has warned that Europe is in danger of civil unrest this winter over high energy prices and should make a short-term return to fossil fuels, reports the Guardian. In an “exclusive” interview with the paper, Timmermans says: “If our society descends into very, very strong conflict and strife because there is no energy, we’re certainly not going to make our [climate] goals. We’re certainly not going to get where we need to get if the lack of energy leads to strong disruption in our societies, and we need to make sure people are not in the cold in the coming winter.“ He argues that “we need to make sure we keep our industry, as much as possible, functioning because the one thing that could help Putin is divisions in our society”, noting that coal would have to be used: “If we were just to say no more coal right now, we wouldn’t be very convincing in some of our member states and we would contribute to tensions within our society getting even higher.”

Meanwhile, Russian president Vladimir Putin has threatened “catastrophic consequences” for world energy markets if western powers impose further sanctions on Moscow, reports the Financial Times. Speaking to members of the government in a televised address on Friday, Putin said that “sanctions on Russia end up causing much more harm to those countries that impose them”, adding: “The further use of sanctions could lead to even more severe consequences, even, without exaggeration, catastrophic consequences on the global energy market.“ The FT notes that Putin’s comments “will increase concerns that Russia could look to disrupt oil supplies if G7 members move ahead with plans to try to cap the price Russia can receive for its crude, the primary source of government revenues”. Reuters looks at why India is continuing to buy Russian oil, with one government official telling the newswire: “If India stops buying oil from Russia, the entire world will be chasing the same pieces of oil and that will further push up oil prices.”

At the same time, Reuters reports that France is preparing for a total cutoff of Russian gas supplies, which French finance minister Bruno Le Maire said it sees as the “most likely scenario” in its forward planning. Speaking on the sidelines of a business and economics conference in southern France, Le Maire said the first line of defence was for households and businesses to cut energy consumption, then the construction of new infrastructure to regasify liquid natural gas shipments from overseas. Politico also has the story. Reuters reports that “France’s energy-intensive companies are speeding up contingency plans and converting their gas boilers to run on oil as they seek to avoid disruption in the event any further reduction in Russian gas supplies leads to power outages”.

Also in France, the Financial Times reports that the “French government is working with Goldman Sachs and Société Générale as it explores how to take full control of utility EDF”. And the Mail on Sunday speaks to a “top industry insider”, who says that the nationalisation of French energy giant EDF means it is unlikely to spearhead future nuclear power projects in the UK.

Germany is “bracing itself” for a potentially permanent halt to the flow of Russian gas from today when maintenance work begins on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that brings the fuel to Europe’s largest economy via the Baltic Sea, reports the Guardian. It is an annual event and requires the gas taps to be closed for 10 to 14 days, explains the media outlet. Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister, spoke on Saturday of the “nightmare scenario” that could occur, adds the paper. However, Financial Times reports that Canada will allow “the export of vital equipment for the main Russian gas pipeline to Germany, clearing a potential obstacle to the resumption of increased gas deliveries to Europe”. Ottawa late on Saturday granted an exemption to its sanctions on Moscow, bringing potential relief to Berlin, which fears it could be forced to ration supplies, explains the article. It quotes Canada’s minister of natural resources, Jonathan Wilkinson, saying on Twitter that it would “grant a time-limited and revocable permit” to allow Siemens Energy to transport the turbine back to Germany. It adds another Wilkinson’s quote: “Absent a necessary supply of natural gas, the German economy will suffer very significant hardship, and Germans themselves will be at risk of being unable to heat their homes as winter approaches”. A government source told Reuters that “the turbine would be sent to Germany first, which will then deliver it to Gazprom, so Canada does not breach any sanctions”. German chancellor Olaf Scholz said: “We welcome the decision of our Canadian friends and allies,“ reports Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ). Although Politico notes that the decision comes “despite appeals from Ukraine to hold off on returning the equipment”.

Meanwhile, Montel reports that last Friday Germany’s upper house of parliament approved an energy law package including new renewables expansion targets, bailout instruments for gas importers and the possible return of coal and oil-fired units to the power market. The Guardian adds that the move has been described as “painful but necessary” by Habeck. However, the story adds, environmentalists contend that a hypothetical return to such heavily polluting energy is a compromise taken too far and that Germany is in danger of failing to meet even the most fundamental climate targets.

In other German energy news, Süddeutsche Zeitung reports that chancellor Olaf Scholz assumes that measures against energy shortages will also be necessary beyond the coming winter. It adds that in a video message published on Saturday, the chancellor said: “These days we are concerned with the security of our energy supply. It will be for the next few weeks, months and even years”. The article continues with a quote from the Federal Network Agency chief Klaus Müller who made a similar statement: “Even if we don’t get into a gas emergency, gas will remain expensive…That can quickly mean a family’s additional burden of €2,000 to €3,000 a year. The next vacation trip or the new washing machine is then often no longer possible.”

Finally, the Financial Times reports that German utility firm Uniper “has formally requested a rescue package from Berlin”, which the paper describes as “a move likely to lead to the government owning a substantial share of the utility brought to the brink of insolvency by a drastic reduction in gas deliveries from Russia”. Uniper CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach has warned that German households and industries should brace for an “enormous wave” of higher energy prices that will begin to hit bills next year, reports Bloomberg.

Satellite data from the Brazilian Space Agency (INPE) shows that deforestation of the Amazon hit a new record during the first half of 2022, the Washington Post reports. More than 3,980 square kilometres – an area five times the size of New York City – were deforested in the first six months of this year, the paper says – the “highest figure going back to at least 2016”. The data also shows that “fire activity last month was the highest for June in 15 years from farmers burning forest vegetation to clear land for crops and livestock”. Manoela Machado, a wildfire and deforestation researcher at Woodwell Climate Research Center and University of Oxford, tells Reuters that “if we have high deforestation numbers, it’s inevitable that we’re going to have high fire numbers as well…This is extremely bad news”. The Independent, Daily Mail and BBC News all have the story.

The Met Office has warned that the UK could experience its hottest day on record this week, reports the Daily Telegraph. With temperatures potentially reaching 33C tomorrow and 35C next weekend, the Met Office tells the paper that there is currently a “30% chance” of the UK experiencing its warmest day ever on Sunday. This would see temperatures surpassing the current record of 38.7C, which was recorded in Cambridge University Botanic Garden in July 2019, the paper notes. The Independent reports that the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Met Office have issued a level three heat health alert for London, the east of England and the south-east from 9am today. It adds that “a level two alert will also be in place for the south-west, east Midlands, west Midlands, the north-west, Yorkshire and the Humber regions”. The i newspaper explains that “level 2 is alert and readiness, level 3 is heatwave action and level 4 is a national emergency”.

In Europe, Reuters reports that temperatures hit 43C in Spain on Sunday, with forecasters warning that the heatwave could last for several more days. The Associated Press reports that Portugal’s government “declared an eight-day state of alert due to a heightened risk of wildfires, as the drought-stricken country prepares for a heat wave packing temperatures as high as 43C”. Bloomberg reports that soaring temperatures across Europe are “drying up waterways and boosting demand for electricity to cool homes as the region faces a crunch for energy supplies”. The newswire continues: “It’s a continuation of this summer’s remarkable heat following record-setting temperatures in June, an earlier start to summer than is typical. The hot, dry conditions are driving up power prices and causing a crisis in parts of Italy, where a glacier is melting and severe drought is cutting power supplies and hitting agriculture. Extreme and dangerous heat is the direct manifestation of a planet warmed by the continued burning of fossil fuels.” A Bloomberg article from Friday reported that “rock-bottom Nordic power prices this weekend won’t benefit the UK as France mops up flows to ease a supply crunch”. It added: “Britain is set to import cheap electricity from Norway, Belgium and the Netherlands on Saturday, which would usually lead to lower prices. But a heatwave is boosting demand in France and drawing supplies, which means the UK will pass on the power there rather than using it at home.”

Elsewhere, the Independent reports that “as many as 135 people were killed, tens of thousands stranded in remote regions, and roads in several cities were inundated as record rains pounded Pakistan”.

Senior Conservatives are warning that the next party leader could be swayed into ditching its net-zero strategy in order to receive the backing of climate-sceptic MPs, the Guardian reports. The paper continues: “Prominent backbenchers have been plotting for months to persuade any possible replacement for Boris Johnson to ditch climate commitments in favour of expanding the use of fossil fuels. Any opposition would come from the green wing of the Tory party, which admits it is disorganised and weak, with one environment minister saying the ostensibly large grouping has many MPs who ‘do f*ck all and don’t give a sh*t’.” Tory greens are “still scrambling to fall behind an ecofriendly candidate, with nobody yet setting out a positive climate policy vision”, the paper notes: “A number of green conservatives have unenthusiastically mooted Nadhim Zahawi and Sajid Javid as potential contenders for their support. Javid and Jeremy Hunt both committed to keep the pledge when interviewed on Sunday morning.” The Guardian also has a piece from Friday ranking some of the potential candidates for their environmental credentials, a piece on the fears of campaigners that environmental legislation could be “sidelined or abandoned”, and a piece looking at the “policies that could fail under UK’s ‘lame-duck’ government”. These policies include “a decision on approval for the £165m plans for Britain’s first new coalmine for decades”, a “review into fracking”, and a “decision on planning approval for the Sizewell C nuclear reactor in Suffolk”.

A snap survey carried out by the Young Conservatives Network for the i newspaper found that “outlier leadership candidates are proving popular with young Conservative members”, with Steve Baker [who has now pulled out, see below] and Penny Mordaunt among the “early favourites among the youth arm of the party”. Relatedly, DeSmog reveals that Steve Baker is “reviving a Thatcherite pressure group with financial support from the chair of the UK’s principal climate science denial group, raising fears the organisation will serve as a new hub of opposition to green policies”. Baker – who is a “staunch critic of Britain’s net-zero measures” – is due to relaunch “Conservative Way Forward”, the outlet explains, which “published a pamphlet over the weekend calling for wide-ranging tax cuts, including a reduction in VAT on fuel and the suspension of ‘green levies’ on energy bills, used to fund renewable energy projects among other things”. The outlet adds that “the brief report has already been backed by two Tory leadership hopefuls: newly appointed chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, who has had a lucrative career in oil, and attorney general Suella Braverman”. Braverman – who writes in the Daily Express that “we need to suspend the all-consuming desire to achieve net-zero by 2050” – has now received the backing of Steve Baker after he decided not to run, reports the Daily Telegraph.

Finally, the Daily Telegraph interviews leadership candidate and former equalities minister Kemi Badenoch, who says that the “arbitrary” net-zero target was ill-thought through, adding that there is “a better way of going about these things”.

The Biden administration has taken a “key step toward approving a huge oil drilling project in the North Slope of Alaska”, reports the New York Times, in a move that “anger[ed] environmental activists who said allowing it to go forward would make a mockery of President Biden’s climate-change promise to end new oil leases”. The paper continues: “The ConocoPhillips project, known as Willow and located in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, was initially approved under the Trump administration and was later supported by the Biden administration, but was then was blocked by a judge who said the environmental review had not sufficiently considered its effects on climate change and wildlife.” On Friday, the Biden administration issued a new environmental analysis, the paper explains, which “calls for five drill sites, a processing facility, hundreds of miles of pipelines, nearly 40 miles of new gravel roads, seven bridges, an airstrip and a gravel mine”. Opponents of the project argued that “just by issuing the analysis, the Biden administration signalled its support”, the paper says. However, in a statement, “the Interior Department said that the new analysis included several options, including a reduction in the number of drilling sites as well as an option for “no action” – or no drilling at all – and did not represent a final decision on the Willow project”. The Financial Times also looks at US oil production, in a piece entitled: “Gulf of Mexico’s oil riches pose climate question for Biden.”

Meanwhile, Biden makes his first trip to the Middle East as president this week, reports the Financial Times, “as the crisis in global oil markets pushes him to reset relations with Saudi Arabia, a country he once threatened to make a pariah state”. The paper notes that the US “does not expect any specific announcements on oil production at this week’s summit but anticipates further increases in the future, according to a person familiar with the administration’s thinking”. President Biden pens an op-ed in the Washington Post in which he explains he is travelling to the Middle East “to start a new and more promising chapter of America’s engagement”. He writes: “From the start, my aim was to reorient — but not rupture — relations with a country that’s been a strategic partner for 80 years. Today, Saudi Arabia has helped to restore unity among the six countries of Gulf Cooperation Council, has fully supported the truce in Yemen and is now working with my experts to help stabilise oil markets with other OPEC producers.”

Energy minister Greg Hands has warned that the price of energy will increase further if oil fields like Cambo do not go ahead, reports the Press Association. Speaking to journalists last week, Hands was asked what the impact on households would be if Cambo and projects like it do not go ahead. He replied: “It would almost certainly drive up the price of energy. And it would almost certainly be bad for energy security. And it’s likely to be bad for emissions.” He said other European countries are envious of the UK’s hydrocarbon production, adding: “The UK having his own capability is something that our European partners and allies look on – with the exception of Norway, which obviously is an even better position than we are – but look on with envy…The fact that the UK is able to produce 50% of its own gas – I would say we need to make sure that we take good care of the resource that we’ve got, to invest in the resource that we’ve got at the moment, while still making the transition.” Hands also stressed the importance of new nuclear power, the newswire says, adding: “I think we need to be working better together…To deliver particularly on nuclear, to make sure that that baseload is there, what do we do when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining?”

Elsewhere, the Guardian looks at how the UK would “keep the lights on” under “worst-case energy scenarios”. And Bloomberg reports on new analysis suggesting that the “UK’s energy price cap is set to hit a record £3,363.70 ($4,040) a year in the first quarter of 2023”.

Rolls Royce  and EDF are among the winners of a total £54m of funding the UK government announced on Friday to help research technology to remove greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere, reports Reuters. EDF won £3m towards a Direct Air Capture (DAC) plant which could be powered using excess heat from its proposed Sizewell C nuclear plant in Suffolk, the newswire says. Rolls-Royce “has also secured £3m pounds for a DAC demonstration unit, which would also capture 100 tonnes of CO2 a year, with a full-scale version targeting 1m tonnes a year of removals”.

Elsewhere, the Daily Telegraph reports that “hydrogen-powered aeroplane engines are to be mass produced at a factory in Britain under plans developed by an Anglo-US start-up”.

A wildfire burning in the southern part of Yosemite National Park in California more than doubled in size over the weekend, the Washington Post, growing to almost 2.5 square miles. The Washburn fire is burning near Mariposa Grove – the southernmost portion of the park – which is “home to more than 500 mature giant sequoias and the largest of its kind in the park”, the paper explains. It adds that “fire management staff are working to preserve the trees by removing fuels around the sequoias and using sprinkler systems to increase humidity”. Fire officials said the blaze is “in difficult terrain with continuous heavy fuels in and around the fire”, reports CNN, adding: “Significant tree mortality from 2013-15 has left significant dead standing and dead fallen fuels. This also presents significant safety hazards to firefighters.” Reuters notes that the US is “having its worst wildfire year in more than a decade, around 4.7m acres (1.9m hectares) burned year-to-date”. That is “more than twice the 10-year average”, the newswire adds. The Guardian also has the story.

Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Conservative life peer and minister for the international environment Zac Goldsmith and Conservative MP Chris Skidmore warn prospective party leaders that “if we throw away the UK’s international leadership on the environment, we will lose the support of a broad coalition of voters”. They write: “The world is facing immense challenges over energy and food insecurity. We will hear arguments over the course of the next few weeks in this Conservative leadership contest that the environment is a peripheral concern; that instead of leading the transition to cleaner and greener energy sources and galvanising the world into action on the global environment, we need to pause and turn inwards – and that doing so will somehow save money and be popular. Those arguments are wrong on every level.” Voters “will rightly turn away from the Conservatives” if these issues are not tackled seriously, the pair write, adding: “Domestically, polling has consistently shown that voters care. In a recent poll of over 3,000 voters in marginal Red Wall seats, tackling climate change and the environment was cited as the second most important issue behind the NHS.” Abandoning “our climate and environment commitments” would be akin to “digging our electoral grave”, they warn.

Also in the Daily Telegraph, an editorial looks at the opportunity for “tax cut pledges” and “cuts to the size of government” in the leadership race. It says: “There is plenty of low-hanging fruit. HS2 should be immediately scrapped, the net-zero target should be reassessed and ministers should go to war on public sector waste.” And in the Daily Mail, broadcaster and commentator Andrew Neil (who has a history of casting doubt on climate science), writes: “It would also be an improvement if the new PM was less interested than Johnson in virtue-signalling on the international stage about global warming while ordinary families bore the brunt of the cost of the policies that follow from net-zero. It should be possible to decarbonise energy without penalising plain folk.” Taking a different view, a Sunday Times editorial says the government “needs to develop a strategic vision for industries in which Britain can win, such as financial services, electric vehicles and clean energy”.

Finally, writing in the Financial Times, John McTernan – a political strategist and former adviser to Tony Blair and Julia Gillard – writes that the Labour party “can reap rewards from the Tory leadership race”, noting that “Labour’s plan is for green growth – £28bn a year to be invested in “reindustrialising” the economy through decarbonisation”, which will “expose the Tory leadership candidates who suggest making a bonfire of existing UK climate change commitments”.

“We cannot ignore biodiversity loss,” writes Sir Patrick Vallance – the UK government’s chief scientific adviser – in the Guardian. He continues: “Alongside overexploitation, humans are driving biodiversity loss by destroying, polluting and fragmenting habitats across the globe. Many of the UK’s important peatlands, which provide a home for rare species such as the hen harrier, have been drained for agricultural use. The Amazon rainforest is being cleared to such an extent that it may be near a tipping point beyond which it cannot recover.” He notes that “the climate crisis is exacerbating the issue”, warning that “many species simply cannot adapt to the scale and pace of changing temperatures”. The 15th UN Convention on Biological Diversity conference in December, known as COP15, “provides the next critical opportunity for governments to commit to real ambitious change”, Vallance says. This could “deliver landmark action and be as important for biodiversity as the Paris Agreement is proving for reducing greenhouse gas emissions”, he says, concluding: “The last decade’s targets were not met; the next decade’s must be. Credible delivery plans will be required, and we need a robust mechanism for monitoring progress and holding ourselves to account. CBD COP15 is the time to finalise the framework, and countries must come to the table prepared to make and support ambitious commitments. This is our chance to secure long-lasting agreements to protect our planet.”

While urbanisation has a negative direct impact on vegetation growth, new research also finds a positive indirect impact that has increased over the 21st century. The authors use satellite observations over 2001-18 to determine the impact of urbanisation on vegetation growth in 672 cities worldwide. They find that indirect positive effects depend on urban development intensity, population density and background climate, and are more pronounced in cities with “cold and arid environments”. The study adds that “vegetation responses to urbanisation are modulated by a cities’ developmental status”.