Saudi Arabia is driving a global investment plan called the “oil demand sustainability programme” (ODSP) to increase demand for its oil and gas in developing countries, according to an undercover investigation by the Centre for Climate Reporting and Channel 4 News, reported in the Guardian. The plan is allegedly overseen by Saudi Arabia’s ruler and involves the country’s biggest organisations including the world’s largest oil company, Aramco, according to the outlets. The Guardian continues: “The ODSP plans to accelerate the development of supersonic air travel, which it notes uses three times more jet fuel than conventional planes, and partner with a carmaker to mass produce a cheap combustion engine vehicle. Further plans promote power ships, which use polluting heavy fuel oil or gas to provide electricity to coastal communities…In publicly available information, the programme is largely presented as ‘removing barriers’ to energy and transport in poorer countries and ‘increasing sustainability’, for example by providing gas cooking stoves to replace wood burning. However, all the planned projects revealed in the investigation involve increasing the use of oil and gas. An official said this was “one of the main objectives”.

Leaked documents obtained by Climate Home News show that US consultancy firm McKinsey “dominates an ecosystem pushing carbon markets in Africa and processes designed to help governments develop long-term energy plans”. According to the outlet, the firm offered Kenyan president William Ruto support in running Africa’s first climate summit in September. It adds: “Climate justice groups wrote to [Ruto] accusing consultancy firm McKinsey of ‘undue influence’ on the summit’s agenda…A few days later, in early June, McKinsey wrote the concept note, which set the summit’s structure, and later drafted a paper to frame its outcome.” The outlet points to McKinsey’s “deep-rooted ties” with Sustainable Energy For All (SEforAll), which is responsible for delivering on a 2030 sustainable development goal. It continues: “A source close to SEforAll told Climate Home that McKinsey encountered hardly any competition and enjoyed ‘almost unrestricted access to the highest levels of the UN and national governments’…African government insiders say McKinsey’s domination is problematic because it is pushing a top-down tunnel vision and non-Afro-centric view of how to address the continent’s climate and development challenges, which, if unquestioned, could constrain its ambition.” A spokesperson for the company said “sustainability is a mission-critical priority for McKinsey”, which has “committed to rapidly scale this work to help clients in all industries reach net-zero by 2050”. 

There is widespread media coverage of yesterday’s story by BBC  News, which revealed that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) planned to use its role as the host of COP28 to strike oil and gas deals. The Guardian notes that the summit will be run by Sultan Al Jaber – chief executive of the national oil company Adnoc and chair of the UAE renewable energy company Masdar. The newspaper says the leaked briefing documents were “prepared by the COP28 team before bilateral meetings between Al Jaber and 27 governments as part of the diplomatic preparations for the climate summit”. It continues: “As well as setting out issues relating to the climate negotiations, the briefings include ‘talking points’ and ‘asks’ from Adnoc and from Masdar…[The briefings] include talking points for 15 countries which state that Adnoc wants to work with those nations to extract their oil and gas resources…For China, Adnoc says it is ‘willing to jointly evaluate international LNG [liquefied natural gas] opportunities’ in Mozambique, Canada and Australia, while the briefing proposes telling Colombia that Adnoc ‘stands ready’ to help develop its oil and gas reserves.” The Times highlights a briefing document which said that Adnoc would “continue to seek Egypt’s support to facilitate oil and gas schemes in the country”. The Daily Telegraph highlights briefing notes prepared ahead of a meeting with Graham Stuart, then minister for energy security and net-zero, which “suggest the UAE planned to push its interests in extending a wind farm off the coast of Norfolk and expediting connections to the electricity grid”. Politico says the documents has “sparked an outcry from climate NGOs”. The outlet includes a statement from a COP28 spokesperson, who says: “The documents referred to in the BBC article are inaccurate and were not used by COP28 in meetings. It is extremely disappointing to see the BBC use unverified documents in their reporting.” The Financial Times notes that under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change code of conduct, officers “should not use their role to seek private gain or advantage, or to represent the interests of other groups”. Sky News, the Hill, Axios, Energy Mix, Scotsman, BusinessGreen and Reuters also cover the story. “Is COP28 climate change summit turning into an oil industry trade fair?” asks an editorial in the Scotsman.

Elsewhere, the Financial Times has published a “big read” on the “UAE’s $200bn bid for climate influence”. The newspaper writes that “UAE state companies and funds can be linked to almost $200bn in investments around the globe in the year leading up to the COP summit, mostly in green energy”. In other COP28 news, Reuters reports that a delegate has said Syria’s delegation to the summit in Dubai will be headed by its prime minister, rather than its president Bashar al-Assad. Outlets including the New York Times, Reuters, Daily Telegraph and Independent continue the coverage of the decision by US president Joe Biden not to attend. And Reuters reports that Indian prime minister Modi will attend.

Meanwhile, the Guardian reports that a group of “former world leaders and leading economists” have called for the “bumper revenues” of oil-producing states to be subject to a $25bn levy to help pay for the impact of climate change in poor countries. And Reuters reports on new polling by the European Investment Bank, which shows that “citizens in Europe, the US, China and Japan believe their countries should compensate poorer nations to help address the impact of climate change”.  

China and the US will hold a joint summit on methane and non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gases at COP28 to “continue dialogue and strengthen cooperation on key topics”, reports the South China Morning Post, citing an interview given by Xia Yingxian, director of the ministry of ecology and environment’s (MEE) department of climate change and deputy head of China’s delegation to the COP28. He adds that China hopes to “join all parties to push for a successful global stocktake”. Xia’s interview was given to the Paper, in which he also says that “some developed countries, under the guise of climate action, are erecting green barriers, introducing discriminatory laws, implementing technological blockades and imposing restrictions on collaboration”. Chinese energy outlet IN-EN.com reports that a state council meeting hosted by premier Li Qiang has called for China to make “further” and “long-term” efforts to improve air quality, in part by accelerating the green and low-carbon transformation of the industrial, energy and transport sectors. The meeting also approved an “action plan for sustained improvement of air quality”.

Elsewhere, Bloomberg publishes a feature article on a new development of clean-energy “bases” in the province of Inner Mongolia, which, when completed, will total 455 gigawatts. China’s development of clean-energy bases in its deserts “promises an upheaval” that will accelerate its ability to move away from fossil fuels, the newspaper adds. The industry newspaper China Electric Power News reports the National Energy Administration (NEA)’s announcement that enterprises should “form a consortium and jointly participate” in constructing clean-energy bases. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports that the Al Dhafra solar photovoltaic project, the world’s largest single-site solar power plant and a “flagship” belt-and-road initiative (BRI) project, has been completed. The plant will contribute “a yearly reduction of 2.4m tonnes of carbon emissions” in Abu Dhabi, the newspaper adds. Bloomberg says that Chinese renewables companies are facing “steep challenges” in the year ahead due to “cut-throat competition” in wind and solar and a “lack of dynamic power markets” for energy-storage companies. Chinese industry outlet BJX News carries an article by the Sino-German Renewable Energy Center’s Tao Guangyuan, who writes that “benefiting from the large-scale price reduction in the solar industry chain and the rapid growth of solar installations, China is highly likely to achieve carbon peaking in the next one or two years”. 

Finally, state-run newspaper China Daily carries the views of Asit K Biswas, a leading authority on water, food, environment and development-related issues, and Cecilia Tortajada, both of whom are professors at the University of Glasgow. They write: “The commitments made by President Xi that China’s carbon emissions will peak before 2030 are now almost guaranteed to be met” and that, if China meets all its current environmental targets, it is “highly likely that China will meet its carbon neutrality target before 2060”.

The World Bank’s former chief economist, Lord Nicholas Stern, has called UK prime minister Rishi Sunak’s decision to water down net-zero policies a “deeply damaging mistake” that will harm the UK, the Daily Telegraph reports. According to the paper, Stern has accused Sunak of “backsliding, vacillation and bad economics”. It adds: “His remarks come as Sunak prepares to attend Dubai’s COP28 climate conference this week, which will also be attended by Lord Stern.” Meanwhile, BusinessGreen reports that more than 2,000 “top executives” have signed an open letter calling on Sunak to “reinvigorate UK climate leadership”.

In other UK news, the Guardian reports that an investor from the UAE has been approached to take a stake in the Sizewell C nuclear power plant project in Suffolk. Elsewhere, Reuters reports that energy company Octopus has bought a 12.5% share in a UK offshore wind farm.

Former BBC News climate and energy correspondent Roger Harrabin has penned an opinion piece in the Guardian arguing that “language is central to the way we deal with the climate crisis”. He says: “Some (including the Guardian but not the BBC) believe the phrase ‘climate change’ itself sounds too benign, and have renamed it the climate ‘crisis’ or ‘emergency’. Others fear ‘climate chaos’ most accurately reflects the avalanche of extremes that are now tormenting people and nature. But after 35 years of reporting on climate for the BBC, I can’t recall a bid to present an entire climate lexicon – especially one like this, which is already provoking accusations of greenwashing and pro-business bias.” Harrabin notes the push for a more “positive and business-friendly spin”, noting that the UK Labour party “has recently often shunned the term climate altogether” and “instead, it proffers the prospect of clean jobs and profits”. However, Harrabin says that “a lot of these terms feel like they are still aimed at elite audiences”. John Marshall from the nonprofit Potential Energy Coalition, has spent years researching and testing climate messaging, and “suggests abandoning technocratic language and scrapping abstract terms like anthropogenic and decarbonisation”, Harrabin says. Instead, he says communicators should “talk like humans”. 

In other UK comment, former Labour MP and climate-sceptic Tom Harris writes in the Daily Telegraph that “Scotland’s heat pump obsession will immiserise the nation”. Harris calls heat pumps “​​ineffective” in cold weather, but says “such inconveniences are of no consequence to the keepers of Scotland’s conscience, particularly if it means Edinburgh can say it reached its own arbitrary [net-zero] target before Westminster did”. Meanwhile, writer Fred Bauer says in the Daily Telegraph that Biden is right not to attend COP28, saying that “most climate conferences are little more than talking shops”. Climate-sceptic columnist Richard LittleJohn cites Carbon Brief analysis in the Daily Mail: “Those of us who believe the political class has taken leave of its senses over net-zero often point to the fact that Britain is responsible for just 1% of global emissions. Not so, say the back-to-the- Stone-Age brigade. An outfit called Carbon Brief has decided that to get a true picture we must rewind to 1850, when we still had an empire. Thus, if you included former colonies such as India and Nigeria, it ‘proves’ that the UK is historically one of the worst polluters ever. It also helps absolve modern India – which is still building coal-fired power stations and pumps out seven times as much pollution as we do – by halving their total greenhouse gas emissions. Coming soon: why Brexit is to blame for the Black Hole of Calcutta.” And omnipresent climate-sceptic commentator Ross Clark also cites the same Carbon Brief analysis arguing in the Spectator that “climate reparations are an awful idea”. 

Yesterday, Germany’s finance ministry “abandoned a pledge to balance the books after three years of heavy borrowing”, according to an editorial in the Times. As a result, it says that chancellor Olaf Scholtz “finds himself fighting to agree a supplementary budget for this year and to drum up billions of euros for energy subsidies, the green transition of industries and extra grants to encourage the chipmakers ­Intel and TSMC to build new plants in eastern Germany”. The editorial continues: “A recent survey showed that 32% of [Germany’s] ­industrial companies now favoured investment abroad over domestic expansion, amid concerns over a future without cheap Russian gas. There is popular discontent about the way that some green measures, such as heat pumps, are being introduced.” An editorial in the Financial Times says the ruling on “balanced budgeting” has “thrown into jeopardy billions of euros of investment in modernising and greening its economy”. According to the newspaper, the recent ruling will inhibit Germany from borrowing to fund its green transition.

New research that constrains projections of future rainfall from climate models suggests that global warming intensifies heavy rainfall even more than expected. Using pattern-filtering techniques, the researchers analysed the intensity and frequency of daily rainfall extremes over land in 21 CMIP6 climate models and compared the projections to observations of past changes. The findings suggest that increasing rainfall extremes scale with global temperature change. On average, these rates “approximately match expectations from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation on average across models” – which states that the atmosphere can hold 7% more water vapour for each degree of warming, the study says, but “individual models exhibit considerable and significant differences”. Comparing these scaling rates to those identified from observational data shows that “virtually all climate models significantly underestimate the rates at which increases in precipitation extremes have scaled with global temperatures historically”, the study says.