Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries have announced “surprise cuts” of more than 1m barrels per day from May until the end of the year, causing oil prices to surge, the Independent reports. The paper says: “Higher oil prices would help fill Russian president Vladimir Putin’s coffers as his country wages war on Ukraine and force drivers around the world to pay even more at the pump amid inflation fuelled in part by that conflict. It was also likely to further strain ties with the US, which has called on Saudi Arabia and other allies to increase production as it tries to bring prices down and squeeze Russia’s finances.” The new cuts come in addition to the 2m barrel per day reduction agreed last November, which will last until the end of the year, CityAM notes. BBC News reports that oil prices have “surged” by more than 6% in response to the announcement. It also warns that higher oil prices could make it harder to bring down the cost of living. The Financial Times reports that Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end Brent crude forecast to $95 a barrel. According to the Guardian, the decision “looks like a pre-emptive move from the cartel ahead of a likely economic slowdown – and possible recession in the US – later this year”. The newspaper notes that in the past, OPEC+ has “announced production cuts and then failed to follow through on the commitments”. According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia called the cut “a precautionary measure aimed at supporting market stability”. The Financial Times says that OPEC+ “clearly wants to prop up the oil price, or – ideally – push it higher”.

Politico warns that the move “has thrown a spanner into central banks’ efforts to tame inflation just as pressure on Europe’s cost of living was starting to ease”. Reuters says that it is “bad news for the European Central Bank as it tries to bring down inflation but will not fundamentally alter the policy outlook”. Reuters adds: “OPEC’s surprise oil production cuts could lead to higher demand for US oil in Europe and Asia and could encourage some other producers to boost output, industry executives and analysts said on Monday.” The price surge “underscores the danger of relying on unpredictable fossil-fuel producers”, according to Bloomberg. The Washington Post says that “gas prices are expected to jolt upward”. Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that US officials have “voiced their displeasure” at the decision. Elsewhere, the Daily Telegraph reports that Putin has “pushed seaborne deliveries of Russian crude to record highs to fill Moscow’s war chest”. And a Reuters “exclusive” reports that Russia’s largest oil producer and India’s top refiner “agreed to use the Asia-focused Dubai oil price benchmark in their latest deal to deliver Russian oil to India”. The newswire says this is “part of a shift of Russia’s oil sales towards Asia after Europe shunned Russian oil following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine more than a year ago”.

China may achieve its 2030 goal for wind and solar energy capacity five years ahead of schedule, writes China Daily. Citing research conducted by the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs and the Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, the state-run newspaper adds that prefecture-level regions have planned to increase installed capacity for wind and solar by at least 800 gigawatts (GW) during the 14th five-year plan period (2021-25). This means, the article says, that it is possible that China could achieve its goal of increasing the combined wind and solar capacity to 1,200GW by 2030 sooner than originally planned. (Analysis published by Carbon Brief last year already noted that China was likely to hit the target years ahead of schedule.)

Meanwhile, China Dialogue has published an article by Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a thinktank. He writes that China’s emissions will peak when the growth of clean energy surpasses the growth of total energy demand, which he says may occur in 2024. Elsewhere, S&P Global reports from the Clean Energy Expo recently held in Beijing, saying key topics of discussion among China’s largest power firms included electricity market reforms to incorporate more renewables into domestic energy consumption. In related comments, the South China Morning Post quotes Liang Yongpan, chair of Datang International, one of the largest state-owned power producers in China, who said that electricity market reform would allow the firm to decrease output from its coal plants and boost renewables, by charging higher prices for its coal power.

Finally, a comment for the Hill says that to accomplish the goals outlined in their individual hydrogen strategies, it is vital for the EU and the US to “counter” China’s “dominance” over the supply chain for “critical hydrogen components, such as electrolysers and fuel cells”.

A leaked advisory document reveals that ahead of last week’s “green day” announcements, officials warned ministers that key farming and land-related net-zero measures were likely to fail, the Times reports. The ten-page advisory document was produced on 20 February for  energy security and net-zero secretary Grant Shapps, the paper says. It continues: “[The document] assessed the ‘delivery risk’ and ‘delivery confidence’ of each of the net-zero measures proposed by Defra, which is run by Thérèse Coffey, the environment secretary. Each was assessed with a traffic-light scale of green, amber and red. Of 44 policies, 21 were marked red or red/amber, indicating they will be hard to achieve. These policies encompass about 85% of Defra’s proposed emissions savings, indicating officials expect to fall well short of what they claim. A further 18 policies were marked as amber or amber/green, and only five were marked green, two of which disappeared from the final ‘carbon budget delivery plan’ document published on Thursday.” (Read Carbon Brief’s in-depth coverage of the UK’s green day announcements here.)

In other UK news, an “exclusive” in the Daily Express (not yet online) says that MPs have warned ministers to “avoid generous subsidies for the burning of imported US wood at power stations” and instead to “support UK renewables to cut bills and carbon emissions”. Elsewhere, the Guardian covers warnings from campaigners that “the UK’s membership of a Pacific trade agreement will result in more deforestation overseas, endanger animal welfare and ‘make a mockery’ of the government’s environmental commitments”. This comes after the UK agreed to scrap tariffs on palm oil as a condition for entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) – a trading block of 11 nations – the paper says.

Meanwhile, there is widespread media coverage of the death of former Conservative chancellor and peer Nigel Lawson, who founded the UK’s most prominent climate-sceptic lobby group the Global Warming Policy Foundation in 2009. BBC News says: “Lawson used his platform in the Lords to express scepticism of man-made climate change.” A BBC News obituary says: “In 2004, he re-emerged as a fierce critic of the concept of man-made climate change. He was one of six signatories to a letter condemning the Kyoto Protocol, which committed countries to reduce carbon emissions. He followed this up in 2008 with a book entitled, An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming, a work which one critic described as ‘largely one of misleading messages’.” The Times trails his obituary on its frontpage, saying: “Lawson was an outspoken critic of climate change scientists, accusing them of exaggerating the dangers of global warming and downplaying the economic cost of countering it. In 2008 he wrote An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming, although he struggled to find a publisher. The following year he set up the Global Warming Policy Foundation. He also became a champion of fracking.” A frontpage Daily Telegraph story says Lawson “served as chairman of the Global Warming Policy Foundation thinktank”.

A federal judge in Alaska has denied a bid to block oil major ConocoPhillips from opening a gravel mine and conducting other work towards the Willow oil project, Bloomberg reports. The outlet says the order “gives ConocoPhillips a green light to continue initial operations during a narrow winter construction season in the Arctic that is expected to end later this month”. Reuters says the legal bid was brought by environmental groups and a Native American community in two lawsuits filed last month, over concerns that the project would “exacerbate climate change and damage pristine wildlife habitat”. In other US news, the Independent reports that “there are new warnings that a second tornado outbreak in a matter of days is possible across large parts the Midwest”. And Reuters says the US has “welcomed plans by the World Bank to boost its annual lending by $5bn to address global challenges including climate change over the next 10 years, but said it was pushing for more ambitious changes soon”.

Bloomberg’s Akshat Rathi has published an in-depth profile of Sultan Al Jaber – the COP28 lead and CEO of “oil and gas behemoth” Adnoc. The piece says: “Al Jaber laid out his view that there’s no contradiction in an oil executive running a pivotal climate forum. He says his role as the public face of clean energy from the [United Arab Emirates (UAE)] has often made him misunderstood.” Rathi notes Jaber’s “enthusiasm” for renewable energy and his ambition to build a “sustainable city”. He outlines the backlash to Al Jaber’s appointment, which he says “frustrated” Al Jaber. He also discusses Al Jaber’s career path: “He became a member of the UN’s advisory group on energy and climate, as well as chairman of Abu Dhabi Ports in 2009. The following year he assumed the position of climate envoy for the UAE, while running a successful campaign to put the permanent headquarters of the newly created International Renewable Energy Agency in Masdar City. In 2011 he wed the daughter of Mana Al Otaiba, one of the longest-serving oil ministers, and then became minister of state in 2013. Three years later his portfolio expanded to include chairman of the National Media Council in charge of domestic media and government messaging…In his media role, Al Jaber helps maintain strict control on local media and Arabic content partnerships with Sky News and CNN, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named for fear of repercussions.”

EnergyMonitor has also published a piece on Sultan Al Jaber. It says: “The ties between Adnoc and COP28 go further than just the person now in charge of both. The Centre for Climate Reporting, an independent investigative group, reports that 12 out of around 70 individuals have moved directly from roles at Adnoc to the COP28 presidency…the COP28 team is working from the same office building as the Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology – and next door to Adnoc’s headquarters.” It also quotes Steven Geiger, co-founder of a Washington DC-based energy transition advisory company, who says: “There is no Emirati more qualified than Al Jaber…It is difficult to imagine a more qualified president than an expert in clean energy, conventional energy and energy diplomacy.”

There is some comment on the decision made by OPEC+ (the oil cartel including Saudi Arabia and Russia) to cut oil production by 1.1m barrels a day. The Financial Times Lex column writes that “crude prices are a barometer of world economies” that, as of late, “have been attempting to reflect higher interest rates and slowing growth.” It adds: “Shale groups will drill more despite high input costs…[and the move] will benefit Russia and US shale oil drillers as much as long standing OPEC members.”

Elsewhere, Daily Mail city editor Alex Brummer writes that the move “underlines the need for the UK to build up its energy security by granting new licences for oil and gas production”. He writes: “We cannot afford to wait for green energy sources to come on stream. Norwegian state oil explorer Equinor is currently seeking to develop the huge Rosebank field north of Shetland. But Britain is under severe pressure from green campaigners to stop new fossil fuel production.” An editorial in the Daily Mail calls it “a dangerous diplomatic game” by Saudi Arabia (de facto leader of OPEC+) that should make the UK “start taking energy security seriously”. The editorial continues: “There are untapped oil and gas fields in the North Sea…It will be many years before renewables can replace fossil fuels. In the meantime, isn’t it better to exploit our own reserves than be held hostage by capricious foreign regimes.”

Writing for the Times Red Box, Ruth Bergan – director of the Trade Justice Movement, a coalition of civil society organisations – comments on the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade agreement – signed by the UK last week. The deal comprises 11 countries, including Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Chile and Peru, but the economic gains for the UK are “tiny”, Bergan writes. And, yet, the government’s assessment predicts that greenhouse gas emissions “will increase [by 0.025%] as a result of joining”. She adds: “Not only has the government said nothing about how it plans to mitigate this outcome, it appears to have capitulated to Malaysia’s demand to lower tariffs on palm oil to zero, which could increase deforestation, undermine community land rights and threaten habitats for species like orangutans.”

Elsewhere, for the Financial Times, Nina Jensen – a marine biologist and chief executive of the not-for-profit company REV Ocean – urges Norway to join a “global moratorium” on seabed mining. She writes: “[S]eabed minerals will arrive too late to play an essential role in the green shift. Mining is not expected to begin in Norway until 2035 at the earliest, if at all. By then, the need for minerals is expected to have levelled off, as a result of new technology and increased recycling.”

The loss of ice from glaciers terminating into lakes in the greater Himalaya over 2000-20 has been underestimated by 6.5%, a new study suggests. Using satellite data, the researchers estimate the volume change of glacial lakes across the greater Himalaya and quantify the underwater mass loss “due to the replacement of ice with lake water”. They show that proglacial lakes – lakes formed from glacier meltwater – have increased 47% by number, 33% by area and 42% by volume from 2000 to 2020. The expansion of glacial lakes has resulted in 2.7bn tonnes of underwater ice loss over that time, which has been “neglect[ed]” from a previous assessment, the researchers say. They have also written a research briefing about their study.

A new study investigates how a warming climate could affect heat-related deaths in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA). The researchers use downscaled data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The average annual heat-related death rate across all MENA countries is currently approximately two people per 100,000, the study notes. This is set to rise substantially by 2100 under all four pathways, the researchers say, ranging from around 20 under a pathway consistent with 2C of warming to around 123 under a pathway of very high emissions. Iran is “expected to be the most vulnerable country”, the analysis shows. The findings highlight that “stronger climate change mitigation and adaptation policies are needed to avoid these heat-related mortality impacts”, the study concludes.