Escalating violence between Israel and Hamas has pushed up the global price of oil, the Times reports. According to the paper, “any escalation of tensions in the Middle East inevitably has a knock-on impact and the near-4%  jump in the price of Brent crude gave London’s two big oil majors a significant push”. The Hill adds: “The price of international oil benchmark Brent Crude closed at under $85 per barrel Friday. On Monday, prices were up to about $88 per barrel.” The Daily Telegraph says there are fears that the war will “escalate tensions in the Middle East, potentially triggering sanctions and supply shortages”. Elsewhere, S&P Global reports that “clarifying Iran’s role in Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel could send shockwaves through US president Joe Biden’s approach to Tehran, with implications for global oil supplies”. Bloomberg reports that Israel has ordered the shutdown of a major gas field in the eastern Mediterranean, citing safety concerns amid fighting between Hamas and the Israeli military. The Financial Times Lex opinion column outlines the reasons for the rise in oil prices: “Traders are downplaying the risk that the conflict will have a big regional impact, drawing in oil producer Iran. Hamas is believed to have received support from that quarter. Moreover, investors do not believe oil can roar significantly higher, even if Iranian supplies are disrupted. That view takes account of the hawkish stance of the world’s central bankers. Iran is the number four OPEC producer. It generated 3m barrels per day in July, the highest level since late 2018, according to the cartel’s data.”

Elsewhere, the Times reports that OPEC has increased its forecast for global oil demand over the coming decades in its annual “world oil outlook” report. According to the newspaper, OPEC currently produces around one-third of global oil supplies. It continues: “OPEC said it now believed that demand would keep growing for the next two decades, hitting 116m barrels a day by 2045. That is about 6m barrels a day more than it forecast a year ago, with growth driven by India, followed by China and other countries in Asia. Much of that growth will come this decade, it believes, with oil demand on course to hit 112m barrels a day by 2030.” The paper quotes OPEC secretary-general Haitham Al Ghais, who argued that “calls to stop investments in new oil projects are misguided and could lead to energy and economic chaos”. Reuters says the new forecast from OPEC “contrasts with that of other forecasters, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), that say demand might peak this decade”. This comes as S&P Global reports that Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said the country could reach net-zero emissions before 2060. Reuters reports that the country will launch a voluntary greenhouse gas credits system next year. 

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports: “Russia resumed overseas diesel shipments over the weekend, after the government lifted an unprecedented ban that roiled global markets for the fuel.” City AM says: “Gas prices have surged across Europe, amid the renewed threat of further strike action across major LNG production sites in Australia.”

Elsewhere, Reuters covers a new report by the IEA which finds that “global natural gas demand is expected to experience slower growth to 2026 after peaking in mature markets such as Europe and North America in 2021”. The newswire continues: “The IEA’s annual medium-term gas market outlook said global gas demand was on course to increase by an average of 1.6% a year from 2022 to 2026, more slowly than the average annual rise of 2.5% between 2017 and 2021.”

At its conference in Liverpool yesterday, the UK’s Labour party “promised to put climate action at the heart of its economic strategy if elected”, BusinessGreen reports. The outlet continues: “Shadow energy security and net-zero secretary Ed Miliband slammed the government’s recent decision to rollback key decarbonisation policies due to supposed cost-of-living concerns for homes and businesses as ‘desperate and dishonest’ and ‘dead wrong’. Rather, he described such moves as a ‘Tory climate culture war’ that he said was ‘not just anti-planet – it’s anti-security, anti-prosperity, anti-worker, anti-business, anti-jobs, anti-future, anti-young people, and it’s anti-Britain’.” The outlet adds that Miliband “argued going further and faster on decarbonisation would bring huge economic benefits to the UK while also helping to drive down energy costs for households”. Miliband reiterated Labour’s commitment to establishing a state-owned energy firm and insulating millions of homes, BusinessGreen reports. It continues: “He stressed that a Labour government would continue to utilise oil and gas from the North Sea from existing fields for ‘decades to come’, and that although the party would not hand out any further exploration licences, it would ensure workers in the sector are not left behind in the net-zero transition.” Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves also “stressed the potential for green investment to revive the UK economy”, the outlet says.

The i newspaper published a factcheck on Labour’s new policies. It says: “At the centre of Labour’s proposals is the target to deliver a zero-carbon electricity system by 2030, meaning all the UK’s electricity will be provided by renewables, primarily solar and wind, as well as nuclear. It brings the UK’s target forward five years from the 2035 deadline set by the Tories, which government advisers say the country is currently not on target to meet.” However, the paper says that energy experts are “sceptical that the 2030 target is achievable”. It quotes Susie Elks, senior policy adviser at climate thinktank E3G, saying the government would have to start “building out renewables at an incredibly rapid pace” and invest in carbon capture and hydrogen plants to achieve the target. It notes that Labour has also pledged to insulate 19m homes in a decade and create a publicly-owned low-carbon energy company. It adds: “According to Labour, its clean energy and insulation plans combined will save households £1,400 per year on their energy bills by 2030.”

Elsewhere, there is further reporting from the Daily Telegraph and others of Labour’s pledge to reinstate the 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars if it wins the next election. MailOnline reports: “Shadow business secretary Jonathan Reynolds insisted carmakers needed ‘certainty’ on net-zero measures as he attacked the Tories for ‘chopping and changing’.” Separately, BusinessGreen reports that the Conservative government has announced £89m in funding for “a raft of 20 cutting edge green transport technology projects”, including net-zero tractors and new battery systems. Elsewhere, the Daily Express reports that according to Ralph Palmer, the electric vehicle and fleets officer at NGO Transport and Environment, the government’s zero emissions vehicle mandate “could make electric cars cheaper in a boost for consumers”.

“The first turbine to be completed in a project to build the world’s largest offshore windfarm, in the North Sea, has begun powering British homes and businesses,” the Guardian reports. According to the paper, the project started producing power over the weekend as the first of 277 turbines was connected to the electricity grid. It continues: “The project, jointly developed by Britain’s SSE and Norway’s Equinor and Vårgrønn, will produce 3.6 gigawatts of power, enough for 6m homes a year, when it is completed in 2026.”

In other UK news, the Press Association reports on provisional data from the Office for National Statistics, which finds that emissions from UK residents and businesses were 2% higher in 2022 than in 2021. This follows a 3% increase in “residence-based emissions” between 2020 and 2021 as the UK emerged from the pandemic, the newswire adds. The Daily Mail reports the new figures under the headline “Britain’s greenhouse gas emissions are now 7% lower than they were pre-pandemic, promising figures reveal.”

Meanwhile, the Press Association reports that the UK’s “transition plan taskforce” has published its best practice “disclosure framework” for corporate transition plans – a set of guidelines for companies to report on their plans to tackle climate change. The newswire continues: “The taskforce said the guidelines set out the basis for companies to share credible plans as part of their annual reporting on forward business strategy. It said firms should take a strategic and rounded approach to tackling their impact and explain how they will meet climate targets, manage climate-related risks and contribute to achieving net-zero. This includes outlining interim milestones and detailed steps to change business models as well as investment. Plans should also address how workers will be supported and the upskilling or reskilling needed, the taskforce said.” Reuters and BusinessGreen also report on the new framework.

Elsewhere, the Press Association reports that the UK government “has no evidence to back up a recent claim it made saying the UK is on track to meet its internationally-agreed targets on improving nature”, according to campaigners. 

The National Energy Administration (NEA), China’s top energy regulator, has issued an emergency work plan to combat “improper” market interventions by local authorities in development of renewable energy, reports the Paper. The Shanghai-based business outlet says that various wind, solar and pumped storage hydropower projects are affected by “unspoken rules” issued by local governments, such as mandatory investment requirements. State-run industry newspaper China Electricity News carries a commentary by Liang Zhipeng, deputy director of the legal and institutional reform department of the NEA, who says development of a new energy system requires “improving macro-level control” and “continuously refining” institutional mechanisms and policy frameworks. Separately, energy news outlet BJX News reports that China issued a plan to develop computing power infrastructure, which includes calls to “enhance the green power utilisation rate” of computing power facilities. 

As China’s belt and road initiative (BRI) global infrastructure project reaches its tenth year, the Chinese government has released a “white paper” that provides an overview of “the value” of the BRI, including China’s commitment to “open, green and clean cooperation” with BRI partner countries, reports China Daily Hong Kong. State news agency Xinhua writes that China will “continue to…build closer, greener and more inclusive energy partnerships”. The Communist Party-affiliated People’s Daily quotes Pakistani senator Mushahid Hussain as saying that the BRI-funded Karot Hydropower Station has helped develop low-carbon energy in Pakistan. Industry news outlet China Energy Net also covers Sino-Pakistani projects under the BRI, quoting a villager as saying that a hydropower plant “has improved our lives”. Energy news outlet China Energy News publishes an interview with Huaneng Group chair Wen Shugang, who says: “We will continue to implement the important instructions of general secretary [president] Xi Jinping on the construction of the BRI, always practising the concept of green development.” Agence France-Presse covers Xi’s meeting with a group of senior US senators in Beijing, which is seen as another positive signal of a meeting between US president Joe Biden and Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in November.

Elsewhere, energy website IN-EN.com reports that the NEA has confirmed the agency bodies responsible for issuance and management of “green” electricity certificates. BJX News writes that “standardising the issuance of green certificates” is a “prerequisite” for improving green certificate transactions. In a comment in the Hong-Kong based South China Morning Post, Zhibin Chen, senior manager for carbon markets and pricing at the thinktank Adelphi, says that for the China certified emissions reduction (CCER) scheme to “fulfil its potential as a world-leading standard”, it must be “revamped to meet international standards and be extended to projects outside China”.

The South China Morning Post covers a new report which finds that “​​nearly half a million coal miners face unemployment globally by 2035 due to mine closures and a market shift towards cheaper wind and solar power generation, with China and India likely to be hit hardest”. And Reuters reports that China suffered $42bn in direct economic losses from “natural disasters such as torrential rains, deadly landslides, freakish hailstorms and a string of typhoons” in the first nine months of 2023.

Around 45% of the world’s known flowering plants could be threatened by extinction, BBC News reports, citing a study by the Royal Botanic Gardens in Kew which was conducted across 30 countries. The outlet says that “of the nearly 19,000 new plants and fungi species discovered since 2020, 77% are thought to be endangered”. The Guardian adds: “The situation is even worse for 100,000 or so plant species yet to be formally named, with an estimated 75% of those at risk of vanishing.” The newspaper also notes that more than half of Australia’s unique plants have not been assessed to determine whether they are at risk of extinction. Sky News says: “ The main cause of the extinctions is habitat loss, such as deforestation or the construction of dams which flood areas upstream. Climate change is ‘certainly on the horizon,’ conservation analyst Dr Matilda Brown said, but added that it is much harder to measure as a threat.” The Times reports that the report identified “darkspots” – areas of the world most likely to yield plant species that are new to science. It adds: “They identified 32 darkspots globally, which include tracts of Brazil, Peru, India, Sumatra, Borneo and Madagascar. The biggest gaps in knowledge of plant diversity and distribution was in Colombia. There are no darkspots in Europe and just one in North America, in southwest Mexico.” See Carbon Brief’s coverage of the report here.

A meeting between the German and French governments has been “overshadowed by a heated dispute over energy”, reports Tagesschau. While France wants to use the EU’s electricity market rules to provide its industry with “cheaper” nuclear power, the outlet explains this plan faces strong opposition in Germany. French president Emmanuel Macron argues that nuclear energy should be promoted alongside renewables, notes the article. However, “Germany is concerned about its competitiveness and increasing price of wind and solar installations, new power lines and storage capacity”, arguing that ​​France wants to misuse contracts-for-difference to “covertly” subsidise its nuclear power plants and industry. The French government rejects this accusation, as energy expert from the Paris-based IFRI Institute, Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, is quoted explaining: “From the French perspective, this is not covert state aid but simply reflects that France has a much more efficient electricity system than Germany.” Reuters also reports on the story, noting that, in an August speech, Macron called Germany’s position on nuclear energy “a historic mistake”. The Financial Times quotes a senior EU diplomat involved in discussions with both countries: “There are a lot of capitals annoyed at this failure of Germany and France to agree and, thus, allow progress…We all need them to find a way forward.” Süddeutsche Zeitung adds that Macron and “half of the French cabinet” are visiting Germany today to exchange ideas in Hamburg, the hometown of German chancellor Olaf Scholz. 

Elsewhere in German news, Table.Media reports that the conflict over the use of biomass “is gaining momentum” ahead of the German government releasing its national biomass strategy. The outlet explains that while agricultural and industrial associations view biogas and wood energy as “crucial components” of the energy transition, environmental organisations criticise their use. Finally, TAZ says that, according to a report from the Expert Council for Consumer Affairs, energy poverty in Germany has increased due to high electricity and gas prices, with the average monthly payments for electricity and gas rising by €52 from the start of the energy crisis in March 2022 to June 2023.

In other European news, the Guardian reports that Frans Timmerman – the former European Commission vice-president who is now leading the combined GreenLeft and Labour parties in the upcoming Dutch elections – has “called for the European left to unite against the right’s ‘astonishing’ climate backlash”.

In a comment for the Guardian, one of the paper’s environment editors Fiona Harvey criticises prime minister Rishi Sunak’s climate policy decisions and warns that opposition leader Keir Starmer “will have to defend his climate policy against a bitter and sustained attack”. She says: “At their party conference last week, the Conservatives openly turned the climate into a culture war, with attacks on net-zero, the roll-back of key green policies, and bogus claims that Labour’s eco-zealots wanted to impose draconian new laws, such as meat taxes and rationing trips to the shops.” Starmer will be faced with a “barrage of claims” that net-zero is “unaffordable”, but he should “rebut those falsehoods”, Harvey writes. She continues: “Reaching net-zero does require some upfront investment, though it will be quickly paid back in energy savings. Treasury analysis shows that the cumulative cost of net-zero by 2050 will reach £1.3tn – but £1tn will be offset by savings, and the remainder is fast being wiped out by high energy prices and new technology.” She outlines the financial benefits of building new houses with solar panels, heat pumps and insulation, but notes that “rules that would have required developers to meet low-carbon standards were scrapped soon after the 2015 general election, a move that has saved housebuilders about £15bn at a conservative estimate”. She adds that “motorists have been treated with extraordinary favours”, with fuel duty having been frozen since 2011. She concludes: “Net-zero is the only economic growth story now feasible for a developed country, as the US and the EU are demonstrating. Done properly, net-zero swiftly reaps dividends…Net-zero, and green policy more widely, are not the problem. It is the way this government has chosen to implement its policies, protecting vested interests while disregarding vulnerable people, that have made environmental policy appear expensive. Labour can make different choices.”

In other UK comment, the assistant comment editor at the Daily Telegraph, Sam Ashworth-Hayes, writes that “Ed Miliband’s net-zero plan is a disaster waiting to happen”. He says: “Labour’s proposal to ‘hardwire’ economic growth into the planning system is a genuinely good idea…The fly in the ointment is that the party also wants to write net-zero into the planning system…The point of ‘net-zero’ is that it is ‘net’; the country as a whole is supposed to meet the target. Some emissions are easier to cut than others, so the sensible way of achieving this is cutting those first while finding ways to offset what remains. What actually seems to happen, however, is that local government officials and others interpret the goal as every individual project needing to meet ‘net-zero’.” 

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) could face flood damages 14 times higher than at present under a scenario of very high greenhouse gas emissions and no adaptation, research finds. Meeting the globe’s most ambitious climate target of keeping temperatures at 1.5C could “avoid almost half of unmitigated damage”, but “would still not prevent several SIDS from suffering economic losses that correspond to considerable shares of their GDP, probably leading to forced migration from low-lying coastal zones”, the scientists say. They add: “Our results underline that investments in adaptation and sustainable development in SIDS are urgently needed, as well as dedicated support to assisting developing countries in responding to loss and damage due to climate change.”