A sea surface temperature “anomaly” in the North Atlantic has scientists “working to understand how record high warmth for this time of year could have occurred”, reports the Press Association. The newswire continues: “Changing wind patterns, global warming, a lack of Saharan dust or a combination of all three have been suggested, with questions raised about how the anomaly will affect atmospheric temperatures and weather. In early March, the North Atlantic temperature rose above previous records and is now 1C warmer than the 1981-2011 mean average for this time of year, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and presented by the University of Maine. The most recent record is 11 June at 22.7C, which passes the previous record for the same day in 2010 by 0.5C.”

Looking more widely, Axios says an “assortment of climate scientists, meteorologists and others are expressing alarm at recent changes in key climate indicators”, adding: “Global surface air and ocean temperatures have spiked sharply in recent months, along with record low Antarctic sea ice, extreme heat events around the world, as Canada’s heat and wildfire crisis grips North America. Along with other developments, the combination of those factors have raised alarms regarding whether climate change is accelerating.” It quotes Dr Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at payments company Stripe and Carbon Brief climate science writer: “In general, I think the level of excitement around recent sea surface temperature records in some quarters is a bit over the top. The world is warming rapidly, broadly in-line with climate model projections. It’s going to get bad if we don’t rapidly reduce emissions, with more extreme heat events, record-setting global and regional temperatures, severe wildfires, and other extreme events where there are clear climate linkages. We don’t have any evidence that warming is accelerating beyond the range that scientists have previously predicted it would. What we expect is bad enough!” The New York Times also has a news feature on the subject: “Temperatures around the world this month have been at their highest levels in decades for this time of year. The spike reflects two factors that are shaping what forecasters say could be a multiyear period of exceptional warmth for the planet: humans’ continued emissions of heat-trapping gases and the return, after three years, of the natural climate pattern known as El Niño. Both factors are also setting the thermodynamic stage for more-severe hot spells, droughts, wildfires and even hurricanes, which acquire their destructive energy from heat in the oceans.”

Bloomberg reports that Germany’s ruling coalition has ended “weeks of infighting and reached an agreement on a law that would ban new boilers fired by fossil fuels, allowing the legislation to be sent to parliament later this week”. The outlet explains that the three coalition parties – the Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats – announced the deal at a joint press conference in Berlin yesterday. It adds: “Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition was bitterly divided on the heating plans, with the Free Democrats seeking to portray themselves as shielding ordinary citizens from the cost of climate protection measures at the expense of the Greens, who are seen as the main driving force behind the legislation. A key change agreed on by coalition officials will be an exemption for homeowners from having to switch to new heating systems using 65% renewables if their local community has not yet presented plans detailing how to expand their own district heating. In a separate law, cities will be required to complete such strategic plans, including a decarbonisation road map, by 2026, with an option for smaller communities to do so by 2028.” Reuters says that the bill is “part of Germany’s drive to become climate neutral by 2045″ and adds that buildings emitted 112m tonnes of greenhouse gases last year, some 15% of the total. The newswire continues: “Germany aims to have a country-wide municipal heating plan by 2028 at the latest. This would give homeowners time to decide whether to switch to a heat pump, connect their homes to district heating or install a gas heater that can be converted to run on hydrogen. Gas heaters may still be installed starting from next year if they can be converted to hydrogen, including in new buildings if they are not part of new development zones. In new development areas, heating systems installed still have to run on 65% renewable energy.” Politico says the deal averts a “looming government crisis for the moment”.

In other Germany news, Politico says that “Germany is saying willkommen to the Chinese government for a joint summit in Berlin next week – but kindly asking them to not bring too many ministers”. It adds: “The German government aims to focus on less controversial issues overall, such as fighting climate change.” Meanwhile, Reuters covers an annual ranking of the top 40 renewable energy markets worldwide by consultancy EY, which shows that “Germany has overtaken China to become the second most attractive country in the world for renewables investment due to its efforts to speed up power market reform and move away from fossil fuels”.

The EU has “tightened…criteria for what counts as a green investment” after its original proposal prompted backlash from campaigners, reports the Financial Times. However, the EU is “still making allowances for fossil fuel-intensive industries such as aviation”, the newspaper says, adding: “To qualify as green under the EU’s sustainable investment criteria, known as the taxonomy, sustainable aviation fuels will have to make up 15% of a plane’s fuel mix by 2030, according to standards published on Tuesday. This represents an increase of 5% compared to previous criteria floated in April that were labelled as ‘unscientific’ by NGOs. Sustainable aviation fuels, made from crops and organic waste, currently make up around 0.05% of aircraft fuel. But aircraft will also be considered sustainable if they reach certain efficiency criteria even when running on traditional jet fuel. Shipping, which is likewise considered difficult to decarbonise, will be subject to similar requirements.”

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that “EU countries hope to pass a deal on new renewable energy targets [today] and are considering options including an exemption for certain ammonia plants, in an attempt to win over countries sceptical of the final law, diplomatic sources said”. The newswire adds: “The European Union is attempting to finalise a key pillar of its climate agenda. If passed by EU countries and lawmakers, the renewable energy law will enshrine a binding goal for the EU to get 42.5% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030. Countries’ approval of the law has been delayed for weeks, after late opposition by France and other countries seeking more favourable treatment of nuclear energy in the bill. Nuclear energy is low-carbon, but not renewable. The group of states, many of them in Eastern Europe and with nuclear energy interests, have also raised concerns over the fate of ammonia produced from hydrogen under the rules. Sweden, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency and chairs negotiations among EU countries, has put the law back on the agenda for a meeting of EU countries’ ambassadors on Wednesday – signalling confidence that it now has enough support to pass.” A separate Reuters article says that “Poland has deferred a plan to cut its reliance on coal by changing the status of its energy policy update to a consultation ahead of elections later this year, following pressure from mining unions”. And a further Reuters article reports that “nearly half of schools and hospitals in European cities are located in urban ‘heat islands’, exposing vulnerable populations to health-threatening temperatures as climate change impacts worsen, the European Union’s environment agency has said”.

Seven days into UN climate talks in the German city of Bonn and governments have not been able to agree on an agenda, reports Climate Home News, “sparking fears of two wasted weeks of talks while the climate crisis worsens”. The outlet continues: “Talks on issues like reducing emissions and adapting to climate change have continued but the Pakistani co-chair of the talks Nabeel Munir warned that all their work could be wasted if the agenda is not officially adopted. Towards the end of a two-hour open meeting, Munir told negotiators they were like ‘a class of primary school’ and urged them to ‘please wake up, what is happening around you is unbelievable’. The room of negotiators and campaigners applauded his words…The Bonn talks happen every June and allow negotiators to progress technical talks and prepare the ground for the following COP summit each November. A failure to agree an agenda in Bonn would make constructive talks at COP28 difficult. The last time they collapsed without an agenda being agreed was in 2013, when Russia objected to being ignored at the previous COP meeting in Qatar and insisted on discussing that in Bonn. Developed countries and some developing nations are split on how prominent to make climate finance on the agenda.” (Carbon Brief’s Molly Lempriere and Josh Gabbatiss are both in Bonn this week and will produce a detailed summary of the talks once they conclude.) The Hindustan Times says the “impasse could jeopardise the agenda at the COP28”.

In other news coming out of Bonn, Reuters reports that “Swedish activist Greta Thunberg warned on Tuesday that humanity was ‘rushing towards the cliff’ of climate catastrophe, and a new study by thinktank Climate Analytics showed that could only be averted by ramping up wind and solar energy installations five times faster and cutting fossil fuels production 6% annually by 2030”. The Guardian also covers Thunberg’s comments: “The climate activist says only ‘rapid and equitable’ [fossil fuel] phaseout will keep temperatures within 1.5C limit…[and that] rich countries are signing a ‘death sentence’ for millions of poor people around the world by failing to phase out fossil fuels.”

Keir Starmer, the leader of the UK’s opposition Labour party, has written an article for the Scottish edition of the Times arguing that oil and gas will be a “crucial part” of the UK’s energy supply under Labour and that people who want to instantly turn off the North Sea taps are “wrong”. The Times says this is a “further shift in the party’s green plans”, adding: “The UK Labour leader has again attempted to reframe the narrative around the party’s energy plan, which would include banning new licences for fossil fuel extraction.” [Carbon Brief understands that Starmer is due to set out more details of his party’s “green prosperity” plans early next week.] Starmer writes in the Times: “To make the most of our country’s potential, we must now get serious about making the shift to clean power. Let me be clear: those who think we should somehow simply end domestic oil and gas production in Britain are wrong. Under Labour’s plans, they will play a crucial part in our energy mix for decades to come. We will not be revoking any licences. But simply carrying on as we are is not a plan: it is a recipe for failure. Not just because renewables are many times cheaper than fossil fuels, but because they offer hundreds of thousands of good, secure jobs and will deliver genuine energy security.”

Meanwhile, in other UK news, the Daily Telegraph follows up on Politico’s story from yesterday noting that “plans for a new net-zero levy on household bills could be dropped after the energy secretary [Grant Schapps] admitted hydrogen would not replace gas boilers”. The Times reports that “Britain’s rollout of energy smart meters is facing more delays and cost increases amid a shortage of installation engineers and claims that many households do not want the devices, the public spending watchdog has warned”.

Separately, there is continuing coverage of the news that coal plants were fired up this week due to a surge in demand for air-conditioning following the UK’s current heatwave. The Sun, which regularly attacks renewable energy in its reporting, runs a story under the headline: “UK’s solar panels wilted in warm weather forcing energy bosses to use coal power stations.” [A Solar Energy UK fact check notes that the output of solar panels only falls by 0.3 percentage points per degree above 25C and states: “even at close to boiling point, power output would only be around 20% lower, all other things being equal”.] The Guardian has an explainer titled: “Why did National Grid use coal to meet surge in electricity demand?” Finally, the Daily Telegraph reports that “two schools have been forced to close after taps ran dry in parts of Kent and Sussex as temperatures rose to 27C on Tuesday and an official heatwave was declared across a swathe of the UK”.

China could achieve its net-zero goals “ahead of schedule” while also “further accelerating the global transition to a low-carbon energy structure”, writes the state-run newspaper China Daily, citing industry experts such as Yang Yinkai, deputy head of the government’s National Development and Reform Commission, and Lin Boqiang, head of Xiamen University’s China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy. It comes on the news (covered in yesterday’s Daily Briefing) that the country’s non-fossil fuel energy sources have surpassed 50% of its total installed electricity generation capacity. Kou Nannan, head of China research at BloombergNEF, is quoted saying “increasing installed power generation capacity using non-fossil fuel sources in the country shows how fast China’s power system can decarbonise”.

Meanwhile, China Daily reports that a new round of extreme heat has hit Asia, breaking seasonal temperature records across the region The newspaper highlights that there has already been “widespread infrastructure damage” in India, Pakistan and Southeast Asia caused by a “punishing” heat wave over recent weeks, which is “expected to last well into this month”. Reuters adds: “A heatwave across China, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea looks set to drive coal use for electricity generation to new highs over coming weeks, priming the region that accounts for more than 60% of world coal emissions to boost pollution further.” And another Reuters article begins: “As droughts loom, China is planning ambitious new water infrastructure projects in hope that moving more of the precious liquid across the country will mitigate the impact of climate change – but experts warn more river diversions may be costly.”

Separately, financial news outlet Yicai reports that Shanghai hosted a conference on carbon neutrality on Sunday. China’s special envoy for climate change Xie Zhenhua told the conference that “China will continue to implement the ‘1+N’ policy system…and implement 100% of its ‘dual carbon’ targets”. He added that Shanghai has developed “many best practices” in the “green and low-carbon field”, with “unique advantages” in promoting international cooperation on climate change. Another report by Yicai notes that Du Xiangwan, deputy director of the National Energy Advisory expert committee, said at the conference that “China has a large base of carbon emissions, with a short time to transit from carbon peaking to carbon neutrality”. Du added that the nation needs “high-quality sustainable development with major breakthroughs in key technologies” and “[to] build modern energy technology systems”. China National Radio has published an editorial, which says China is “putting into action” to achieve “dual carbon” targets.

In other news, the state newswire China News Service quotes Ma Long, general manager of Skyworth PV, a leading Chinese photovoltaic company, saying that “with the reduction of PV system costs and the introduction of favourable national policies related to energy storage in China, energy storage is expected to usher in a period of rapid development this year”. The state news agency Xinhua, citing a report by stdaily.com, reports on the Xiangshan Science Conference, where key challenges in “underground energy storage” have been discussed. The newswire writes that the use of “deep underground space for large-scale energy storage” is “of great significance” to ensure national energy security and strategic material security, as well as to achieve the “dual carbon” targets.

Finally, China Daily reports that governments in north China are preventing farmers from burning straw and “encourage alternative uses, such as the production of biomass fuel”. Foreign Policy carries a comment piece, titled: “China’s gas deals bet raises questions about complicity with Russia.”

Politico reports that, following a “week-long blockade of floor action by conservatives, the House passed bipartisan legislation Tuesday to prevent the federal government from banning gas stoves – the latest Republican bid to stop what they say is the Biden administration’s anti-fossil fuel agenda”. It adds: “The bill and a related measure expected to pass this week on efficiency measures for the appliances are unlikely to get votes in the Democratic-controlled Senate. But Republicans have touted their legislation as pushback against overreach by the Biden administration, even though there are no federal proposals to outright prohibit the sale of gas stoves under consideration. Lawmakers passed the Gas Stove Protection and Freedom Act, H.R. 1615 (118), which would bar the Consumer Product Safety Commission from banning gas stoves by a 248-180 vote. Twenty-nine Democrats ultimately voted alongside Republicans to support the measure.”

In other US news, Axios says “Joe Biden’s critics in the climate movement fret he could face enthusiasm problems with climate voters and young people for backing fossil fuel projects”, adding: “Some climate advocates make the case that Biden should be more aggressive against the continued use of fossil fuels or he’ll dampen voter enthusiasm on the left. Fresh polling from advocates also shows the potential for enthusiasm issues with younger voters who care about climate action.” And Reuters says “Joe Biden will travel to California next week to raise campaign cash from tech and climate donors as he races to raise over a billion dollars for his re-election fight, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter”.

Finally, the Financial Times reports that a “US-led group of 12 countries, plus the EU, plans to select large critical-minerals projects to develop by year end, in an attempt to lessen China’s dominant role in producing raw materials needed for green technologies”.

Shell will “ramp up its dividend and share buybacks while keeping oil output steady into 2030 as part of chief executive Wael Sawan’s efforts to regain investor confidence that wavered over its energy transition plan”, reports Reuters. The newswire adds: “Shell scrapped its previous target to cut oil output by 20% by 2030 after largely reaching the goal. It produced around 1.5m barrels per day of oil in the first quarter of 2023. It said it will now keep its oil production steady to 2030 and will grow its natural gas business to defend its position as the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas player.” The Financial Times also picks up Sawan’s comment that Shell will maintain oil production at current levels until 2030, while “continuing to grow its gas business”. It quotes him saying: “Performance, discipline and simplification will be our guiding principles as we allocate capital to enhance shareholder distributions, while enabling the energy transition.”

Politico has published a list of “movers and shakers to keep an eye on as the UK tries to meet ambitious emissions goals”. At number one in the list is Nick Park, “[Rishi] Sunak’s energy guru”: “Park is No. 10’s energy policy special adviser, the official who has prime minister Rishi Sunak’s ear on this stuff. A former Tory policy wonk, Park helped write the 2010 manifesto’s energy and climate sections. He also has industry experience with seven years in policy and comms jobs at British Gas parent company Centrica in the 2010s and a brief stint as director of global government affairs at US firm Baker Hughes, which makes and maintains equipment for oilfields. So he’s no tree-hugging hippie, it’s fair to say. A Rishi true-believer, Park worked on Sunak’s leadership campaign in the summer of 2022, while on voluntary leave from his most recent role as a director at lobby firm Public First. While in that role, he wrote a report that argued net-zero ‘remains the best plan’ for the UK in an era of increased concern about energy security. That insight eased the fears of the green movement. ‘Coming straight after the Truss period, when there were proper climate denier crazies brought into No. 10, people were relieved,’ said one climate lobbyist, granted anonymity to give a frank assessment of the government’s record.”

In other UK comment, Labour MP Barry Gardiner writes in the Guardian that “[a]s the ice melts, a perilous Russian threat is emerging” in the Arctic: “A militarised Arctic would undermine scientific cooperation and pose an existential threat. Somehow, we need a diplomatic effort to separate the politics of war from the imperatives of climate research. During the cold war, the USSR and the west had cultural and scientific exchanges that kept back-channels of communication open when political temperatures were running high. Now, more than ever, we need similar initiatives to thaw the permafrost between Russian and western research efforts.” The Daily Telegraph carries a comment piece by Cyrus Kapadia, chief executive of asset managers Lazard UK, under the headline: “Britain is not being ambitious enough in the battle to secure energy supplies.” He says: “This is the moment for an acceleration of policy – and action. The government must find new ways to fund the emerging technologies urgently needed for the UK to achieve its priorities: meeting its climate goals while delivering far greater energy security.”

Separately, the UK’s right-leaning newspapers continue their attacks on net-zero via their comment pages. An editorial in the Sun, responding to the fleeting use of some coal plants during the current heatwave, says: “The reality which eco fanatics cannot grasp is that solar and wind alone will never reliably power a country this size and with such variable weather. And net-zero will never happen without planning and building several new nuclear plants. Until then we need oil and gas. The more we extract from the North Sea, the better off and the safer Britain will be.” [Earlier this year, as covered by Carbon Brief, the government’s advisory Climate Change Committee set out how the UK could get reliable and cost-effective zero-carbon electricity by 2035, in a system relying predominantly – but not exclusively – on wind and solar.] The Daily Telegraph publishes yet another piece by climate-sceptic commentator Ross Clark under the headline: “Government’s new net-zero plan might be its most idiotic yet. The idea that a quarter of Britain’s energy could come from power stations by 2050 in space is for the birds.” And an editorial in the Times argues that “Sir Keir Starmer must back new measures to combat Just Stop Oil demonstrations… it is right that ministers have moved to amend legislation to ensure the full force of the law is felt by the nihilists of Just Stop Oil and Extinction Rebellion.”

Writing in the FT, science communicator Anjana Ahuja says “El Niño’s arrival heralds a new period of climate uncertainty – and one that, with its associated risk of extreme weather, economists and politicians ignore at their peril”. She continues: “Even the best-laid plans to tackle the escalating cost of living will need to factor in crop failures and spiralling commodity prices. It also offers a preview of what might be coming down the track…One challenge is forecasting how countries should prepare: while climate models work reasonably well at the global scale, according to Professor Tim Palmer, a climate physicist at the University of Oxford, they are less effective for making long-term, country-level forecasts. That will matter in the coming years as nations invest in adaptation, such as building flood defences. Palmer is among those advocating for a ‘Cern for climate change’, a massive, multinational supercomputing effort to make higher-resolution forecasts, and to explore how the Enso cycle might itself alter in a warming world…Any rise should be temporary – but it still represents a new extreme. Twenty-eight countries, including the UK and China, experienced their warmest years in 2022. It could have been worse: those temperatures were kept in check by the cooling effects of La Niña. This year, meanwhile, has brought record-breaking April heat to Spain, extensive wildfires to Canada and, as a result of those, unbreathable skies over New York. That is the critical message: the unprecedented is becoming the norm.”

Developing countries that are vulnerable to climate change require urgent climate adaptation and investment in clean energy but are often overlooked for international financial support based on a flawed assessment of their economic health, suggests a new study. The authors discuss how using a metric that differentiates between long-term insolvency and short-term liquidity crises “could be part of a multi-pronged strategy to unlock greater flows of adaptation finance”. Climate ambitions will be derailed if otherwise solvent and able governments are unable to access finance, the paper concludes.

Different ways of accounting for the climate effects of aviation result in very different requirements for CO2 removal from the atmosphere and different temperature outcomes over time, a new study explains. Around two-thirds (65%) of the CO2 emissions from aviation are international and not explicitly included in the Paris Agreement, leading to ambiguity in how they should be treated. This is further complicated by the substantial non-CO2 effects, the largest of which come from contrail-cirrus and the net-effect of nitrogen oxides (NOx). The authors discuss the “issues and choices that are important regarding which approach is most appropriate for defining and achieving a greenhouse gas balance for aviation in the context of the Paris Agreement”.