Most large emitters are likely to miss a UN deadline to submit a new climate pledge for 2035 early next week, the Financial Times reports. Only a handful of countries have so far come forward with the plans due on 10 February, including the UK, Switzerland, Japan, Canada, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, New Zealand and the US, the publication says. Nick Mabey, co-founder of climate thinktank E3G, tells the newspaper that only about one-quarter to one-third of the G20 economies are expected to submit their targets on time, adding: “Because of the shock of the US presidency and all the other issues, there is not a lot of leader attention on this issue.” The newspaper continues: “Although there is no penalty for the failure to meet the 10 February deadline set under a UN work programme, it will deepen concerns about backtracking on climate action globally.”

President Trump’s administration has begun removing references to climate change across several major government department websites, with scientists bracing for “the worst”, the Guardian says. It reports: “A major climate portal on the Department of Defense’s website has been scrapped, as has the main climate change section on the site of the Department of State. A climate change page on the White House’s website no longer exists, nor does climate content provided by the US agriculture department, including information that provides vulnerability assessments for wildfires.” Veteran US scientist Dr Michael Mann tells the newspaper: “We should plan for the worst. The keys to the car have been given to the polluters and fossil fuel plutocrats and they intend to drive it off the climate cliff.”

Elsewhere, the Washington Post reports that Trump has announced that Neil Jacobs, an atmospheric scientist who was found to have violated scientific integrity policies during the “Sharpiegate” scandal of the first Trump administration, will lead the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A second Guardian story says staffers with Elon Musk’s “department of government efficiency” (Doge) entered the headquarters of NOAA on Wednesday to try to access IT systems, “inciting concerns of…cuts and threats”. The New York Times reports that the Environmental Protection Agency is demoting state employees who “oversee scientific research, the enforcement of pollution laws, hazardous waste cleanup and the agency’s human resources department and will replace them with political appointees”. It continues: “The move would give Trump administration loyalists more influence over aspects of the agency that were traditionally led by nonpartisan experts who have served across Republican and Democratic administrations.” Heatmap reports on Trump’s “other funding freeze” that could affect efforts to address climate justice. And the New York Times looks at how Trump’s “trade war” could affect efforts to tackle climate change.

Veteran climate scientist Prof James Hansen has said the pace of global warming has been significantly underestimated and the target of limiting global warming to 2C is “dead”, the Guardian reports. A new study by Hansen and others argues that temperature increases caused by cutting air pollution, which is deadly but has a cooling effect, and the sensitivity of Earth to rising emissions are both larger than thought, the Guardian explains. It continues: “The group’s results are at the high end of estimates from mainstream climate science, but cannot be ruled out, independent experts said. If correct, they mean even worse extreme weather will come sooner and there is a greater risk of passing global tipping points, such as the collapse of the critical Atlantic ocean currents.” The Financial Times reports that, according to the results, “the world is on course to hit 2C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2045”. Inside Climate News also covers the research.

China has put export controls on tungsten and other niche metals used in the electronics, automotive and solar industries as it “retaliated in a targeted way to US tariffs”, reports Bloomberg. It continues: “The announcement came immediately after President Trump fired the opening salvo in the trade war, hitting all US imports from China with a blanket 10% tariff. China produces around 80% of the world’s tungsten and bismuth, and is also the No. 1 supplier of the other metals.” While there are “alternative sources of tungsten being developed outside of China – including in Australia, Spain and South Korea”, the article notes, “these could take time to add meaningful volumes to the global market”.

Meanwhile, analysts have said that China’s reaction to the US’ tariffs “seemed quite measured”, Bloomberg also reports. It quotes Lynn Song, chief economist for greater China at ING Bank, saying the retaliation looks “fairly muted”, adding that “there is still hope that tariffs could get quickly unwound or pushed back after face-to-face talks”. China’s “swift but calculated retaliation” against the US tariffs has “made clear that Xi Jinping is taking a more cautious approach than during Donald Trump’s first term”, another Bloomberg report says, adding that Beijing “had learned a lesson from its first trade fight with Trump” in a reflection of its “more precarious economic situation”. BBC News says that as Trump divides traditional US allies, China has “supported major international institutions such as the World Bank and agreements such as the Paris climate accords”, portraying itself as “embracing countries across the world and deepening diplomatic ties”. 

In other news, Reuters says that China’s “relatively modest” energy purchases from the US “blunt[s]” the impact of Beijing’s “retaliatory tariffs” on imports of US crude oil, gas and coal, adding that US oil only “accounted for 1.7% of China’s crude imports”. The Wall Street Journal says that China’s export control of critical minerals would not have “significant consequences” for US business, as the new controls didn’t “go as far as the harsh mineral export bans” that China used against the US last December. Separately, a call between presidents Trump and Xi “could happen in the next couple of days”, Nikkei Asia reports. The state-run newspaper China Daily runs an editorial saying China’s countermeasures are “tailored to avoid hurting” general US-China ties. Finally, the Daily Telegraph reports that the US tariffs could prompt China to “flood” the UK with cheap cars.

India is “in no hurry to meet” the February deadline for submitting the next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and will likely “skip” it, Indian Express reports. Unnamed government sources tell the paper that India’s 2035 climate targets will “reflect the disappointment of COP29 outcome on climate finance”, “hint[ing]” that these are “unlikely to be a significant or ambitious upgrade”. It adds that India’s 2035 NDC “might be submitted only in the second half of the year” and its biennial transparency report can be “expected to be submitted around the middle of the year”. According to the article, “another reason why India is unlikely to stretch itself right now” is that the country is “planning to host” COP33 in 2028 and “would like to leave some room for enhancing its NDC commitments during that time”. Separately, a Down to Earth story reviewing funding for national adaptation schemes says that while the Indian government has “lamented the lack of international climate finance…[it] has not adequately supported adaptation action with finance” in its annual budget.

In energy news, India’s coal production in January reported an increase of 4.4% compared to last year, Economic Times reports. Another Economic Times story reports that the country’s coal ministry “opened its bids” for 27 new coal mines in its 11th round of commercial coal auctions starting yesterday, with 46 companies placing their bid for 20 mines. Carbon Copy reports that the Indian government has launched its National Critical Minerals Mission which aims to “intensify” domestic and offshore exploration in India while speeding up regulatory approvals for mining projects. Another Carbon Copy story looks at “[w]hat is holding back the growth of solar power in India” and lists five policy changes that can restore the sector. Separately, Outlook Business reports that India’s sugar production “is expected to face a significant decline” this year, with a 12% drop in output “primarily due to increased diversion of sugarcane for ethanol production” to “achieve a 20% blending rate in petrol” by 2025. At the same time, farmers told the Indian Express that early flowering of the sugarcane crop following “extended drought” and excess rainfall has “hit” yields in Maharashtra’s sugar belt, with one farmer saying “this is nothing but climate change”. 

Finally, a comment in the Hindu by academics Tejal Kanitkar and T Jayaraman describe reactions to the “Trump withdrawal from the Paris accord” as “a mixed bag of resignation and bravado”. They write that it is “equally bravado to call on developing countries to respond to the US move by abandoning multilateralism in the climate arena”, adding that “the future of climate action” requires “other nations to bring the US back to the path of reason”. 

The UK government has announced it will spend an additional £250m on protecting homes and businesses in England from flooding, BBC News reports. The government will invest in projects ranging from tidal barriers and flood walls to nature-based solutions that slow water flow, BBC News says. It continues: “In its latest detailed assessment, the Environment Agency calculated 6.3m homes across England were currently at risk from flooding from rivers, seas and surface water. With climate change set to bring more intense storms and heavier rainfall, that could rise to 8m by 2050 – one out of every four properties.” The Financial Times reports that the funding, which will be announced formally today, takes the total the government has committed to flood defences for the two years to March 2026 to £2.65bn in order to protect 66,500 properties. The extra funding will be “repurposed from underspent environment department budgets”, according to an official, the FT says. The Guardian and Daily Mirror also cover the news.

In other UK news, the Times reports that government ministers “are preparing to relax planning rules to make it easier to build mini nuclear power plants in more parts of the country in order to hit green energy targets and boost the industry”. A Daily Telegraph story says Starmer has “given assurances” to Equinor, the fossil fuel company behind the Rosebank oil field, that he will back the major fossil-fuel project in its efforts to seek final consent from the government. Another Times story says Shell has restarted production from the Penguins oil field in the North Sea after a four-year hiatus to install new infrastructure. The Press Association says energy secretary Ed Miliband on Tuesday again stated a third runway at Heathrow will only go ahead if it does not breach climate targets. The Guardian reports that an amendment to the Great British Energy bill currently passing through the House of Lords “to guarantee that companies using forced labour do not drive the UK’s green energy transition” is likely to get cross-party backing. The Times reports that the bird charity RSPB has accused prime minister Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves of being “simplistic and divisive” by pitting economic growth against protecting the natural world. Finally, DeSmog reports that Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch – the leaders of the Reform and Conservative parties, respectively – have been announced as speakers at the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC) conference later this month, which has been dubbed “Glastonbury for climate deniers”.

Temperatures at the Arctic’s north pole have soared more than 20C, crossing the threshold for ice to melt in winter, the Guardian reports. Temperatures north of Svalbard, an island in the Arctic Ocean, were 20C higher than the 1991-2020 average on Sunday, at just over 0C, the newspaper says. It quotes Mika Rantanen, a scientist at the Finnish Meteorological Institute, saying: “This was a very extreme winter warming event. Probably not the most extreme ever observed, but still at the upper edge of what can happen in the Arctic.” Another scientist tells the Guardian that the temperatures are “linked to a deep low-pressure system over Iceland, which is directing a strong flow of warm air towards the north pole” and “extra-hot seas in the north-east Atlantic”.

An editorial in the Sun eagerly urges UK chancellor Rachel Reeves to show her support for the Rosebank oil field, amid reports that Reeves and prime minister Keir Starmer are in favour of the fossil-fuel project. It says: “She will have to defy a cacophony of protest from the eco mob, from Labour MPs to the usual climate crazies who don’t care how poor Britain gets as long as we alone in the world hit net-zero. One MP told the Guardian (where else?) that government approval for Rosebank would be ‘a breaking point for a lot of us’. No 10 must be terrified. Then there’s Ed Miliband, nominally our energy secretary but in reality a jumped-up Extinction Rebellion fan who branded Rosebank’s original licence ‘climate vandalism’”. Political sketches in the Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph also make personal attacks on Miliband. In contrast, the Guardian sketch says that Miliband “finally came out of his bunker for energy security and net-zero departmental questions” yesterday to “bask in Labour backbench love”.

Planted forests in China are less able to cope with drought than natural forests, according to new research. The study, which uses satellite observations over 2001-20 to understand forest drought risk, finds that planted forests exhibit lower drought resilience and resistance than natural forests, particularly subtropical broad-leaved evergreen and warm temperate deciduous broad-leaved forests. Lower forest canopy height and poorer soil nutrients are among the factors responsible for planted forests’ higher drought risk, according to the researchers. They emphasise the need for “enhanced [forest] management strategies” as droughts become more frequent and severe.