Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its parliamentary majority as votes were counted in India’s elections yesterday, “dealing an unexpected blow to the prime minister and forcing him to negotiate with coalition partners in order to return to power”, the Guardian reports. The BJP landslide predicted before the polls “had not materialised and instead, there had been a pushback against the strongman prime minister”, while the opposition INDIA alliance of over 20 national and regional parties “far outperformed expectations, collectively winning more than 230 seats”, the paper says. For the “first time since Modi’s Hindu nationalist BJP swept to power in 2014, it did not secure a majority on its own”, the Associated Press reports, winning only 240 seats – “far fewer than the record 303” it won in 2019 and the 400 seats that Modi had said his party and allies would win while campaigning this year. The newswire quotes Rahul Gandhi, the face of the INDIA alliance saying: “The poorest of this country have defended the constitution of India.”

Polling spanning over six weeks “t[ook] place amid unusually high temperatures…and experts say that may have depressed turnout”, NBC News reports, but “[n]either the BJP nor the opposition said much about climate change during the campaign”. However, while Modi “claimed victory for a third five-year term, [his government] will face major challenges fueled by climate change”, says the New York Times, including “fixing agriculture in the era of climate change”, especially when his government “has faced some of the most potent opposition” from farmer organisations whose many concerns “are rooted in climate issues”. According to experts who spoke to the paper, there is “momentum building up, and elections are unlikely to be scheduled in peak summer in future”. Another key challenge, the story adds, is fixing India’s “coal habit”, primarily when “[p]ublic and private companies, many of them politically connected, are invested in coal”. The Financial Times reports that shares in flagship companies owned by Indian billionaire and coal and power giant Gautam Adani “plunged” by around 20% after early election results “pointed to a diminished mandate” for Modi. (Ahead of the election, Carbon Brief published an interactive grid of where the main parties stand on climate change.)

As pre-election coverage continues in the UK, the Press Association covers new proposals from the Conservative Environment Network, a body representing Conservatives prioritising environmental issues. PA says: “The green Tory group’s director Sam Hall urged the Conservative Party not to cede environmental leadership to the left and said parties should be competing over how to improve the environment, rather than arguing over whether nature and climate action were problems.” Conservative prime minister Rishi Sunak and Labour opposition leader Keir Starmer took part in the first of a series of TV debates last night. The Times says that, speaking on the topic of climate change, “Sunak rejected the accusation that he had rolled back on green pledges. He said he was going to ‘stick to the targets we’ve put in place, but we’re going to do it in a way that saves you all money’.” It continues: “The prime minister said Labour would impose thousands of pounds on households to convert them to green energy. But Starmer, who has promised clean power by 2030, said the costings were ‘absolute garbage’.” According the Times, Starmer said: “A transition is coming and it’s very important when it comes, for example, to energy, a transition to renewables, I don’t think we should just see that as a challenge, it’s a huge opportunity because if we go to renewable energy that means cheaper bills. It means that Putin can’t put his boot on our throat.” In a factcheck of claims made during the debate, the Guardian evaluates a claim from Sunak that ending new licences for North Sea oil and gas would leave the UK less energy secure. It says: “This idea raised by Sunak would be significantly challenged by plenty of energy experts, and on two points. The first is that UK-drilled oil and gas is sold on global markets, and would thus have a negligible impact on prices. There is also a strong argument that investing heavily in sustainable and green energy – as many other countries are doing – would eventually make the UK notably less reliant on imported fossil fuels.”

Meanwhile, in a story trailed on its frontpage, the Daily Telegraph reports that the Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned that Labour’s plans to invest £23.7bn in areas such as clean energy over five years would make it difficult to get the country’s total debt pile falling over the same period. According to the Daily Telegraph, the IFS said: “Whatever the intrinsic merits of borrowing to invest for these or other worthy purposes, borrowing for Labour’s Green Prosperity Plan will make the debt rule harder to meet.” The Daily Mail reports on polling suggesting the Green Party could gain its second MP as Labour is projected to lose the Bristol Central constituency to the party. DeSmog reports that the new right-wing party Reform UK has accepted £2.3m from fossil fuel interests since 2019. A second DeSmog story says Reform leader Nigel Farage is standing to be an MP in a seat at risk from sea level rise and flooding. The Times notes that Reform is “committed to scrapping all the UK’s net-zero commitments, describing it as a Westminster ‘obsession’ which has damaged the economy, put up energy bills and destroyed the UK’s energy security”. In its analysis of the policy, the Times says: “Polling suggests that the party’s position is not particularly popular – even with its target electorate. Only 8% of voters think the government is doing too much to tackle climate change while 62% of Reform voters believe there should be a political consensus to combat climate change.”

Finally, CleanTechnica reports that carmakers are hitting targets for petrol-free sales in the UK. The publication EV Powered says sales of EVs reached a record 17.9% of the new vehicle market share in May, according to the latest Electric Car Count from New AutoMotive. It says: “The sustained growth indicates that the industry only needs to sell an additional 1,800 EVs per month between June and December to meet the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate targets for the year.” BBC News says car industry leaders across Merseyside and Cheshire in England have said they want to see the introduction of a new strategy to help speed up the transition to EVs. The Daily Telegraph says that the car company Cadillac is to relaunch in the UK with two electric SUVs. A second Daily Telegraph story notes that Fiat owner Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz have paused plans to build EV car battery gigafactories in the EU.

The Financial Times reports that registrations of Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) in western Europe, including the UK, increased 23% between January and April compared to 2023, amid the “looming threat” of tariff hikes on battery-run car imports from the nation. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reports that China is calling on Spain to “encourage the European bloc to maintain an open stance on green new energy”. Reuters also covers the story, saying Wang Wentao, minister of China’s Ministry of Commerce, hopes Spain can help “create a fair and predictable development environment” between the EU and China. State news agency Xinhua quotes Mao Ning, spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, saying that the EU should “honour its commitment to upholding free trade and opposing protectionism, and work together with China to maintain…China-EU economic and trade cooperation”. Separately, the Financial Times has a “big read” on China’s plans to sell “cheap EVs” to the rest of the world.

Meanwhile, Reuters cites a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), saying that “renewable energy capacity additions have been dominated by China in recent years” and that other Asian countries such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam, need to boost their renewable energy deployment to meet 2030 global climate targets. Rahm Emanuel, the US ambassador to Japan, has told Bloomberg TV that issues with China, including manufacturing overcapacity, “strengthens the resolve of America and its partners to stand together”. 

In other China news, the state-run newspaper China Daily reports that China will “enhance its policy support” for “smart connected vehicles”. Reuters reports that China has approved “a first group of nine automakers to carry out tests on vehicles with advanced autonomous driving technologies on public roads” to speed up self-driving vehicle adoption. China Electric Power News carries a comment by Zhang Jianhua, director of China’s National Energy Administration (NEA), saying that the country must “actively build a new power system security governance framework”, and enhance “governance capabilities” to ensure a safe transition for the power system. Energy news outlet BJX News publishes a new report by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, which predicts that by 2035, the global installed capacity of batteries in vehicles will almost reach 4 terawatt hours (TWh), with the scale of energy storage batteries going reaching 1.6TWh.

Italy is working with Group of Seven (G7) nations on proposals to support clean energy and food security in Africa that could be announced next week, Bloomberg says. It reports: “[Italian premier Giorgia] Meloni wants Italy to be a key clean-energy link between the European Union and Africa as the EU seeks alternatives to Russian gas following the invasion of Ukraine.” The latest proposals include an “Energy for Growth in Africa Initiative” focusing on investments in clean power generation and the development of infrastructure across the continent, sources tell Bloomberg. It continues: “A second ‘Food Systems Initiative’ aims to provide technical support to African nations to help them integrate food provision in their climate plans, as well as promote specific agricultural projects in sectors such as coffee, the people said.”

The Associated Press covers a new study finding that the rate Earth is warming hit an all-time high in 2023, “with 92% of last year’s surprising record-shattering heat caused by humans”. It continues: “The group of 57 scientists from around the world used UN-approved methods to examine what’s behind last year’s deadly burst of heat. They said even with a faster warming rate they don’t see evidence of significant acceleration in human-caused climate change beyond increased fossil fuel burning.” Two of the leading scientists summarise the findings in a Carbon Brief guest post. The Guardian covers separate research finding that a fifth of the world’s ocean surface is particularly vulnerable to a “triple threat” from climate change caused by extreme heat, oxygen loss and acidification. Finally, in the Conversation, researchers explain the results of their new study finding that groundwater is heating up, with stark consequences for people and wildlife.

As part of a special issue of the Nation looking into the impact of a second Donald Trump presidency, US environmentalist Bill McKibben says that, when it comes to climate change, Trump “can do damage that will last, in human terms, forever”. It continues: “His actions can literally help melt the poles and raise the oceans, and in the pages of Project 2025’s Mandate for Leadership, his conservative legions have made it abundantly clear that they will.” As part of the article, he quotes Carbon Brief analysis, saying: “If you want a numerical sense, here’s the careful analysis carried out by Carbon Brief: ‘A victory for Donald Trump in November’s presidential election could lead to an additional 4 billion tonnes [of CO2].’”

A special report in Politico covers European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s “secret” behind-the-scenes battle to protect net-zero policies. Quoting several Brussels insiders speculating that von der Leyen may not be a climate advocate, the article says: “But all these versions of von der Leyen miss one vital truth that has, until now, been largely hidden: She fought doggedly behind the scenes in Brussels to get her Green Deal done. The question now is whether she would back the climate cause so strongly again, if she were given the chance of a second term. For this article, Politico conducted interviews with 18 close observers of her first mandate including senior European People’s Party operatives, high-ranking Commission officials, members of the European Parliament and the heads of major NGOs. Many spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive and bitterly fought battle to decide how green the EU really wants to be.” Elsewhere, the Guardian examines why green parities are “polling badly” for the European elections.

There is continued analysis into whether Claudia Sheinbaum, the first female president of Mexico who has worked as a climate scientist, will use her leadership to boost climate policies or follow in the footsteps of her predecessor by investing in fossil fuels. Reuters says: “The 61-year-old leftist leader, who was part of a UN panel of climate scientists that received a Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, has spoken about her belief in an academic and scientific approach to politics. She campaigned on a pledge to significantly boost renewable energy in the oil-producing country to as much as 50% by the end of her term in 2030.

But despite her best intentions to improve Mexico’s green record, Sheinbaum’s mentor, the highly popular outgoing president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, spent billions propping up Mexico’s fossil fuel-dependent state energy giants, oil firm Pemex and power utility CFE…Sheinbaum could be hard-pressed to break cadence with Lopez Obrador’s style at the risk of losing support, limiting her ability to prioritise climate change policies.” In the LA Times, Kristina Foltz, a writer about populism and disinformation in Latin America, says: “Sheinbaum, who has an environmental science degree, sometimes speaks like a committed environmentalist; she told the Associated Press she supports renewable energy. But she also promised to increase generation by state-owned power plants that rely on fossil fuels. As the only G20 country without a net-zero-emissions plan, Mexico needs a climate change leader, not a labyrinth of empty words.”

Climate change under a medium emissions pathway could push groundwater resources for 77-188 million people above the “highest threshold for drinking water temperatures set by any country”, a new study suggests. Simulating current and projected groundwater temperatures worldwide, the researchers show that “groundwater at the depth of the water table (excluding permafrost regions) is conservatively projected to warm on average by 2.1C between 2000 and 2100” under medium emissions. An accompanying news and views article adds that groundwater warming for many regions “will also alter the conditions that sensitive groundwater-dependent ecosystems currently rely on”.

A new study explores the potential for floating solar power on lakes around the world. Assessing more than 1m water bodies worldwide, the researchers estimate a total global potential of almost 15,000 terawatt hours. The findings suggest that, with a “conservative” 10% surface area coverage, floating solar photovoltaics could contribute an average of 16% of the “electricity demand of some countries, thus playing an important role in decarbonising national economies”.

New research shows how incorporating environmental concerns around hydropower into energy planning in Africa can “reduce the river fragmentation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with hydropower development at marginal increases in energy costs”. The researchers propose an integrated approach to include the “impacts of dams on rivers, GHG emissions from reservoirs and increasingly competitive alternative renewable electricity technologies” in energy system planning. This approach increases “electricity prices and total discounted costs by at most 1.4% and 0.2%, respectively”, the study finds, while “reducing impacts on annual hydropower emissions and river fragmentation by at least 50%. An accompanying news and views article says the study “lays a solid groundwork for navigating intricate trade-offs related to hydropower”.