UK ministers are “considering plans to weaken the UK’s carbon-cutting plans by allowing the unused portion of the last carbon budget to be carried over to the next period”, reports the Guardian. “This would go against the strong recommendation of the government’s statutory climate advisers, the Climate Change Committee,” the newspaper continues, adding: “But it would make the next targets easier to meet. The UK has emitted less carbon dioxide in recent years than was expected, owing to factors including the Covid-19 pandemic and sluggish economic growth. This should be ignored, allowing for the next set of five-yearly emission targets to be more stringent, the better to reach net-zero by 2050, the CCC has said. Ministers have until the end of this month to decide, and have only publicly said that such a decision would be made ‘in due course’.” Politico also covers the story, saying: “It’s an accounting trick that would effectively give the UK headroom to pollute more in the years ahead without breaching its own rules. But climate experts argue it’s a bureaucratic wheeze that could further dent Britain’s global climate reputation – and fails to really factor in how the planet works. ‘Cashing in ‘phantom credits’ wouldn’t change our international commitments,’ said Dustin Benton, policy director at the Green Alliance thinktank. ‘It just means we’d need to double the rate at which we cut emissions later this decade, making the job much harder.’The idea is being actively considered inside the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, according to an official familiar with ministers’ thinking and granted anonymity to speak candidly. DESNZ has refused to rule out carrying forward the emissions.” (Previous Carbon Brief analysis shows carrying over the credits would allow the UK’s emissions to rise by 15% while still officially meeting its next carbon budget for 2023-2027.)

In other UK news, the Times reports that “ministers are preparing to extend subsidies to wood-burning power stations despite Tory MPs warning that this risks ‘ripping off’ taxpayers unless tougher conditions are imposed”. The newspaper adds: “No more taxpayer money should be handed to biomass electricity until it can prove it does not worsen climate change and offer value for money, dozens of Conservative MPs will say. The MPs say there are ‘serious questions’ about whether generating electricity by burning wood is sustainable and a review is needed to see if options such as wind and solar are becoming better options. Up to 7% of Britain’s electricity comes from biomass, mainly from a Drax power plant in North Yorkshire that was converted from coal to burn wood pellets. The company has received more than £6bn in public subsidy and ministers are considering whether to continue taxpayer support worth £600m last year after the deal expires in 2027. Claire Coutinho, the energy secretary, is due to make a decision before the election on official recommendations that subsidies continue, subject to a cap on total payments. She is said to be demanding more reassurance about value for money and is expected to insist that all wood used in generation is shown to be sustainable, up from 70% at present. But a decision to continue subsidies would spark a Tory row as a report by the Conservative Environment Network urges ministers not to renew them unless industry can show the technology is sustainable and good value for taxpayers.”

A separate article in the Times says that a “Labour government would be in pole position to sign a green free trade agreement with the US, a former adviser to President Biden has said, praising the UK opposition’s ‘bold’ climate policies”. The newspaper adds: “Jennifer Harris, a former chief economic adviser to the White House’s National Security Council, told the Times that a future Democratic administration and a Labour-led UK would be better placed than the European Union to agree a prized trade deal built on shared climate goals.” MailOnline reports that “more than £21bn of North Sea oil and gas projects risk being scrapped by the mid-2030s if Labour increases taxes”, according to oil and gas analysts at the investment bank Stifel.

Elsewhere, the Financial Times reports that “South Korea’s state energy monopoly is in talks with the UK government about building a new nuclear power station off the coast of Wales, in what could be a big boost to Britain’s plans for a new nuclear fleet”. It adds: “Kepco has held early-stage discussions with British officials about a new facility at the Wylfa site in Anglesey, and a ministerial meeting is expected this coming week, according to people briefed on the matter.” BBC News says: “A leading campaigner against the Sizewell C nuclear power station has said its construction is still not inevitable. The planned energy plant, on the Suffolk coast, has just been granted its nuclear site licence. But Alison Downes, director of campaign group Stop Sizewell C, has questioned whether the government will be able to attract enough private investment.”

Finally, the Sunday Times says that “Chinese-owned British Steel has hired advisers as it closes in on a rescue deal with the government to unlock hundreds of millions of pounds in UK taxpayer aid”, adding: “In a move that will soothe growing fears that British Steel’s rescue has stalled, owner Jingye has appointed accounting giant PwC to assist with finalising a fully costed business plan and negotiations over state aid, according to industry and Whitehall sources. The appointment is significant because it signals that Jingye is finally committing to the long-term future of British Steel. It plans to pump billions of pounds into switching to greener forms of production over the coming years, sources familiar with the situation said.” The Daily Telegraph reports that “Jaguar Land Rover is racing to complete a £356m factory upgrade as the West Midlands car maker prepares to launch the first all-electric Range Rover”. Another Daily Telegraph article says that the “sale of new petrol-fuelled motorcycles is set to be banned from 2040, under plans due to be announced by ministers as part of the government’s net-zero crackdown”. And a third Daily Telegraph article is headlined: “Giant heat pumps could turn retirement haven into one of Britain’s greenest towns.”

The Financial Times reports that the Biden administration is set to announce that it “plans to raise tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle [EVs] imports from 25% to 100%” alongside tariffs on solar products and other clean-energy products. The newspaper quotes Wendy Cutler, a former trade official and vice-president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, saying this “​​would more effectively shield US auto manufacturers from unfairly traded Chinese vehicles”. Bloomberg also covers the story, saying that the move is “mostly symbolic” as Chinese manufacturers are “not reliant on US consumers”. US climate envoy John Podesta raised “Chinese overcapacity in solar and battery manufacturing, steel production and coal power” as well as COP29, methane reduction and deforestation in a meeting in Washington DC last week with his counterpart Liu Zhenmin, according to Reuters, adding that “the tone of the talks continued to be cordial”. The Financial Times also covers the meeting saying “the US and China said they would ‘intensify’ their co-operation on replacing coal with clean power” and that they “agree on climate collaboration despite trade tensions”. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) says that the two countries will hold the “second US-China summit on methane and non-CO2 greenhouse gases” at COP29. The Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily carries yet another “Zhong Caiwen” commentary (see last week’s Daily Briefings), which are likely linked to the party’s Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, saying overcapacity arguments are designed to “curb and suppress China’s superior industries”.

Elsewhere, Chinese state news agency Xinhua says that China and Hungary have reached agreements in “many fields” following president Xi Jinping’s visit, including on investments in “green development”. Local newspaper Shenzhen Special District Newspaper quotes Gergely Karbuczky, deputy head of the Hungarian Investment Promotion Agency (HIPA), saying that “Chinese investors have created more than 13,000 job opportunities” in Hungary across a range of industries, including energy. SCMP reports that China has vowed to take “proactive measures” to “consolidate bilateral trade in traditional areas, such as energy, minerals and grains”, with Russia.

Separately, Reuters reports that China’s “multibillion-dollar push to green [its] aluminium industry” is being frustrated by power cuts due to insufficient hydropower generation in southwest China, which has recently seen “erratic rainfall”. The Communist party-affiliated magazine Current Affairs Report publishes an article written by National Energy Administration (NEA) chief Zhang Jianhua, saying China must “more vigorously promote the high-quality development of new energy, to make greater contributions to the construction of a strong nation”. State broadcaster CCTV reports that China’s electricity generation from wind and solar increased 25% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024. Economic newswire Jiemian reports that China’s largest offshore solar project, which will have a capacity of 2 gigawatts (GW) and generate 2GWh of clean electricity a year, has been approved by China’s State Council, the country’s top administrative body.

The UN’s World Food Programme says more than 300 people have been killed in flash floods that have “ripped through multiple provinces in Afghanistan”, reports Agence France-Presse. The newswire adds: “Many people remained missing after heavy rains on Friday sent roaring rivers of water and mud crashing through villages and across agricultural land in several provinces, causing what one aid group described as a ‘major humanitarian emergency’.” It continues: “Since mid-April, flash flooding and other floods had left about 100 people dead in 10 of Afghanistan’s provinces, authorities said. Farmland has been swamped in a country where 80% of the more than 40 million people depend on agriculture to survive. Afghanistan – which had a relatively dry winter, making it more difficult for the soil to absorb rainfall – is highly vulnerable to climate change. The nation, ravaged by four decades of war, is one of the world’s poorest and, according to scientists, one of the worst prepared to face the consequences of global warming. The UN special rapporteur for human rights in Afghanistan, Richard Bennett, said on Twitter/X that the floods were ‘a stark reminder of Afghanistan’s vulnerability to the climate crisis’.” The Associated Press says: “Aid group Save the Children said about 600,000 people, half of them children, live in the five districts in Baghlan that have been severely impacted by the floods…Arshad Malik, country director for Save the Children…said that Afghanistan was a country least prepared to cope with climate change patterns, such as the heavier seasonal rains, and needs help from the international community.”

Meanwhile, in other news of extreme weather around the world, Reuters reports that “flash floods and mud slides in Indonesia’s West Sumatra province killed at least 37 people this weekend while the search for 17 missing people is still ongoing”. Elsewhere, the Associated Press reports that “Canadian authorities are urging all remaining residents in a town in British Columbia to leave immediately, despite improving weather conditions, after many were already evacuated due to a fast-growing wildfire”. BBC News says “thousands of Canadians have been ordered to leave their homes in Fort Nelson, British Columbia due to the threat of a wildfire. The blaze began on Friday night and was described by officials as ‘exhibiting extreme fire behaviour’.” Separately, the Sunday Times reports from Mexico City on how “fears of a Day Zero when the city will run out of water completely are now spiralling”. Reuters reports that “Mexico heatwave melts temperature records in ten cities, including Mexico City”.

Politico carries an interview with Spain’s deputy prime minister Teresa Ribera who “wants to be the EU’s next green deal chief”. Ribera tells the outlet that European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s “willingness to work with the far right and ease off the green agenda” reveals “an attitude of resignation that is enormously pernicious” and “enormously harmful to European interests”. Relatedly, the Guardian reports that Wopke Hoekstra, the EU commissioner for climate action, has “warned against politicians trying to use the climate crisis as a wedge issue in the forthcoming EU parliament elections, calling instead for climate policy that will bring wider economic benefits”. He says, according to the newspaper, that “Europe had no choice but to press ahead with strong measures to cut greenhouse gases, whoever was in power, but [he] added that more attention was needed to help businesses thrive in a low-carbon world”.

“Government sources” have confirmed to Der Spiegel that the German “climate and transformation fund”, which supports initiatives such as the promotion of new heating systems, faces a potential shortfall of around €10bn for the current year. The “emerging problem” is said to be a result of decreased electricity prices, notes the newspaper, explaining that the lower the wholesale price, the more funds the state must provide for feed-in tariffs, which are guaranteed to operators of wind turbines and solar panels. According to the outlet, costs could rise to about €20bn. The German economy ministry states it is in “close contact” with the grid operators, saying: “Due to the mentioned volatility and uncertainty in the electricity price, the exact financing requirements cannot currently be determined more precisely.” 

Meanwhile, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reports that more than 1,000 environmental activists, according to police estimates, protested on Friday against the Tesla gigafactory near Berlin, the Elon Musk’s only car factory in Europe. The protestors say the expansion of the factory would strain local water supply and lead to deforestation, notes FAZ. Musk said on his social-media platform Twitter: “Something very strange is happening, as Tesla is the only car company being attacked!” Deutsche Welle adds that police have filed criminal charges and detained protesters. Reuters, the Guardian and CNN also cover the story. Finally, Business Standard reports that Bangladesh will likely receive around €233m in loans and grants from Germany, mainly to promote renewables and build climate change-adapted infrastructure.

The world’s big banks have “handed nearly $7tn (£5.6tn) in funding to the fossil fuel industry” since the Paris agreement to limit carbon emissions, according to research covered by the Guardian. The newspaper adds: “Researchers for the banking on climate chaos report, now in its 15th edition, analysed the world’s top 60 banks’ underwriting and lending to more than 4,200 fossil fuel firms and companies causing the degradation of the Amazon and Arctic. Those banks, they found, gave $6.9tn in financing to oil, coal and gas companies, nearly half of which – $3.3tn – went towards fossil fuel expansion. Even in 2023, two years after many large banks vowed to work towards lowering emissions as part of the Net Zero Banking Alliance, bank finance for fossil fuel companies was $705bn, with $347bn going towards expansion, the report says…Spokespeople for Barclays, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Deutsche Bank and Santander all emphasised that their organisations were supporting energy sector clients’ transitions toward more sustainable business models. Mizuho declined a request for comment.”

The UK’s ability to feed itself is “set to be reduced by nearly a tenth this year” as farmers across the country “reel from one of the wettest winters on record”, according to a new analysis from the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) covered by Reuters. The newswire adds: “ECIU estimated that the projected reduction in key arable crops as a result of lower crop area and poor yields will reduce UK self-sufficiency by 8 percentage points when measured by volume, declining from an average of 86% between 2018 and 2022 to 78% this year. Specifically, the UK could become dependent on foreign imports for around a third of its wheat, with wheat self-sufficiency estimated to decline from 92% in the same period to 68%, the ECIU said. Self-sufficiency in oilseed rape is estimated to collapse to a historic low of 40% from 75%. Farmers also expect poor harvests of potatoes and onions.”

Elsewhere, the i newspaper says that it can “reveal” that “the Conservatives are poised to break another promise on the environment as a proposed ban on the sale of peat compost to gardeners looks likely to fail”. The Financial Times carries a feature headlined: “UK waste confronts its carbon problem: Incineration plants have been attractive to investors, but must soon start paying for emissions.”

Protest groups such as Just Stop Oil and Palestine Action could be banned in a similar way to terrorist organisations, under a proposal from the government’s adviser on political violence, reports BBC News. The outlet says it has seen extracts from an upcoming report from Lord Walney, which will recommend a new category for proscribing “extreme protest groups”. It continues: “It defines these as those which routinely use criminal tactics to try to achieve their aims. The sanctions could restrict a group’s ability to fundraise and its right to assembly in the UK. The Home Office said ministers would consider the recommendations.” The Times says “his report, which makes 40 recommendations, is set to be finalised and sent to No 10 as soon as Monday”, adding: “Walney has also held discussions with senior Labour figures and hopes the party will be sympathetic to his ideas. It comes amid a growing debate about the acceptable limits on protests, with ministers saying they want to clamp down on overly disruptive demonstrations. Walney wants to make it an offence to belong to a protest group judged to be “extreme” and which routinely uses criminal methods to campaign. The move would be part of a wider effort to make it harder to fundraise or organise for certain groups which use mass disruption and promote targeting individuals or businesses.” An editorial in the Sun says “his warnings deserve to be taken seriously”, adding: “Over recent years crazed activists have infiltrated the green movement to desecrate buildings and national treasures.”

The Guardian’s Damian Carrington continues his reporting based on the survey of IPCC scientists published last week. In an interactive “scrolling” feature, he writes: “Climate scientists have told the Guardian they expect catastrophic levels of global heating. Here’s what that would mean for the planet…At 3C, cities including Shanghai, Rio de Janeiro, Miami and The Hague would end up below sea level.”

In other comment, UK net-zero secretary Claire Coutinco claims in the New Statesman that “new oil and gas is compatible with net-zero”. Labour is quoted in the Sun hitting back at Coutinho’s various claims saying that the Tories are a “clown-car government”. The Independent carries a comment piece by David Callaway, founder of Callaway Climate Insights and a former editor-in-chief of USA Today, under the headline: “Biden’s next move on climate change could be a huge roll of the electoral dice.”

Separately, an editorial in the Financial Times argues that the EU should ban imports of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG). It writes: ”Europe has made great strides towards weaning itself off Russia’s gas. With a final, concerted push, it could finish the job.” Matthew Vincent in the Financial Times lays out his “reasons to be cheerful about corporate climate targets”. And, finally, the Daily Telegraph continues to platform climate-sceptic commentators to attack Greta Thunberg and “soaring green taxes” (which, as this tweet from Sky News’ Ed Conway shows, is misleading).

The total area at risk for malaria transmission in Africa may decline more than previously expected over the 21st century as a result of climate change, a new study finds. “Previous Africa-wide assessments have tended to solely represent surface water using precipitation, ignoring many important hydrological processes,” the authors say. The new study combines hydrological and climate models to estimate future distributions of mosquito breeding sites across Africa. The authors project that the total area suitable for malaria transmission in Africa will begin to decline in 2025.