Hundreds of billions of dollars and millions of work hours in productivity could be lost in Australia due to temperature rises according to a new report, says the Guardian. Limiting warming would spare the country a sharp fall in economic activity, but see coal exports “fall to a trickle” by 2063 under a low-emission scenario, it continues. Increased temperatures will cost Australia between $135bn and $423bn over the next four decades, reports the Sydney Morning Herald. Warming could reduce wheat production and “leave the taxpayers footing the bill for more expensive natural disasters”, the article adds. The Intergenerational Report is set to be released by treasurer Jim Chalmers today, looking at the impact of global temperature increase, reports the Conversation. If temperatures increase by up to 3C or more than 4C without changes to present ways of working, Australia’s aggregate labour productivity levels could decrease by 0.2-0.8% over the next 50 years, it continues. By contrast, if temperatures are limited to 2C the country could benefit from an extra $155bn in GDP, notes the article. The impact on Australia’s tourism sector will be half as bad under a 2C rise, as opposed to a 3C rise, reports the Australian. It quotes the imminent report, saying: “Australia has a large number of natural attractions at risk of environmental degradation which may attract fewer tourists in a world of higher global temperatures. At least 50 per cent of Australia’s sandy coastline, a major drawcard for tourism, is under threat of erosion due to climate change.” Australia is currently not on track to reduce its emissions by 43% by 2030, instead they have risen since 2021, reports Crikey. As one of the windiest and sunniest places on earth, Australia could be a leader in renewable energy, the article continues. The country is also home to half of the world’s lithium, as well as other critical minerals such as cobalt, manganese and rare earth, global demand for which will surge by 350% by 2040, it adds.

More than 100,000 people have been evacuated after weeks of rainfall have led to a dangerous flooding situation in large parts of the eastern Punjab region along the Sutlej River in Pakistan, reports the Independent. The Sutlej river swelled to “extremely high levels” on Saturday, expanding to around 4km wider at one point, it adds. Several hundred villages as well as thousands of acres of cropland in Pakistan’s Punjab province were inundated when the river burst its banks on Sunday, reports Le Monde. Between June and September, the summer monsoon brings South Asia 70-80% of its annual rainfall, which is vital to the livelihoods of millions of farmers and food security in the region, but also brings landslides and floods leading to frequent evacuations, the article continues. Climate change is making seasonal rains heavier and more unpredictable according to scientists, the article notes.

About 126m people were under heat alerts in the US as of Wednesday, as an “extremely dangerous” heat dome lingered over the country, reports Axios. A major swath of the Midwest, South and Southwest are being covered by the heat dome, with its intensity beating records that date back to at least 1950, it continues. More than 100 new records were set or tied on Monday alone, with the “searing heat” expected to persist through the week, the article adds. Temperatures above 100F (37.7C) have stretched south to states on the Gulf coast, with “brutal humidity levels” pushing the heat index as high as 120F (48.8C) in some areas, reports the Guardian. “It is imperative to take the heat seriously and avoid extended time outdoors, as temperatures and heat indices will reach levels that would pose a health risk and be potentially deadly to anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration,” the National Weather Service said in its statement, adds the Guardian.

Meanwhile, tropical depression Harold has continued to cause problems across Texas, New Mexico and Arizona, the article continues. Harold made landfall at Padre Island, Texas, on Tuesday, pummelling parts of the state with heavy rain, reports the New York Times. Harold follows the storms Emily, Franklin and Gert, but is the first storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season to make landfall, it continues. Just hours after the formation of Harold, tropical storm Franklin developed, and has brought torrential rain to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, reports the Independent. “The cyclones, which scientists say are being supercharged by the impacts of the climate crisis, are part of a record-breaking pattern unfolding in the Atlantic”, adds the article.

Fires have killed 20 people in Greece, as they continue to burn out of control in the foothills near Athens and the Evros region near the border with Turkey, reports BBC News. Of those killed, 18 are thought to be refugees and migrants who had recently crossed the border and were hiding in the forests north of the city of Alexandroupolis where fires have now been burning for five days, continues the article. Firefighters are trying to stop the fire spreading from the slopes of Mount Parnitha, to the north-west of Althens, but are being hindered by strong winds “whipping up the flames and searing heat of up to 40C (104F)”, the article adds. Rescue forces are giving “110%”, according to Vassilis Kikilias, the civil protection minister, but 355 new fires have broken out in the past five days, with 209 of them in the last 24 hours, reports the New York Times. “It is the worst summer for fires since records began,” the article quotes Kikilias as saying. The European Union has blamed climate change for increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires in Europe, reports the Associated Press. “With their hot, dry summers, southern European countries are particularly prone to wildfires. Another major blaze has been burning across Tenerife in Spain’s Canary Islands for a week, although no injuries or damage to homes was reported”, the article continues. In Tenerife, more than 8,000 wildfire evacuees have been allowed to return to their homes as the blaze has been brought under control, reports Reuters. The wildfire ravaged almost 15,000 hectares of woodland, and there are still 3,000 people who cannot return to their homes, it adds. In France, temperatures have hit an all-time high for late summer, as the country “continues to swelter under a punishing heat wave” reports Le Monde. The nationwide average temperature over 24 hours hit 27.1C on Tuesday, with a further hot spell expected across the second half of the week, it continues. Such continuously high temperatures have never been recorded in the late summer, with records dating back to 1947, according to the Météo France weather authority, the article adds.

Reuters reports that China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua and his US counterpart John Kerry held a video call on Wednesday on topics including climate change dialogue and bilateral climate cooperation. Meanwhile, China has released a policy calling for officials to “develop standards for new energy generation, including such as solar power, solar thermal power, and wind power generation”, reports the Chinese energy website IN-EN.com. The plan also highlights the need to improve standards for connecting “new energy” to the grid and to establish standards for new energy vehicles (NEVs), including for driving systems and key components, adds the outlet. Shanghai Securities News reports that, according to the China Passenger Car Association, from 1 to 20 August, retail sales of NEVs reached “351,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. Chinese finance media outlet Caixin has published an “in-depth” article, highlighting China’s role – and challenges – as an exporter of electric vehicles to the US and Europe. Time carries an article on how the “threat” sluggish economic activity in China poses for global commodities demand.

Separately, Reuters also reports that South Africa entered into a series of agreements with China on Wednesday at the BRICS summit in Johannesburg aimed at “overhauling” its energy sector, including “upgrading” its nuclear plants and electricity grid. The state news agency Xinhua has published the full speech delivered by commerce minister Wang Wentao on behalf of president Xi at the summit, which includes a call for BRICS countries to “focus on practical cooperation, especially in the digital economy, green development, and supply chains”. Another article by Shanghai Securities News highlights that He Yang, deputy director of the National Energy Administration (NEA), the country’s top energy regulator, attended the 8th BRICS energy minister’s meeting and pledged to enhance energy security collaboration and exchange energy technologies.

In other China news, Xinhua reports that the third plenary session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), China’s top political advisory body, met to discuss accelerating innovation in science and technology. The state-run industry newspaper China Energy News reports that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planning body, has issued a policy document which aims to accelerate the “application of advanced and practical green and low-carbon technologies”. 

Finally, the state-run newspaper China Daily has published an editorial, staying: “In yet another blow to the already souring bilateral relations, the Joe Biden administration has tightened controls on the export of materials and components for nuclear power plants to China on the spurious grounds that it would help prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons.”

More than 1,200 academics have written to the Royal Society calling on it to issue a clear condemnation of the fossil fuel industry, reports the Guardian. The academics have asked for an “unambiguous statement about the culpability of the fossil fuel industry in driving the climate crisis” from the association of the world’s most eminent scientists, it continues. The society has agreed to meet representatives of the academics, most of whom are UK based, to discuss the demand, it continues. The Guardian quotes the letter, which states: “The Royal Society has thus far failed to condemn fossil fuel companies that are building new infrastructure that will carry the world far beyond 1.5C of warming and that are lobbying across the world to dictate the pace and terms of an energy transition that will protect their profits at the planet’s expense.”

Carbon emissions in the Amazon forest soared in 2019 and 2020 compared with the previous decade, according to Brazilian space research centre INPE, reports Reuters. Carbon emissions from the forest amounted to 0.44bn metric tons in 2019 and 0.52bn metric tons in 2020, compared to an annual average of 0.24bn metric tons between 2010 and 2018, it continues. This is due to poor enforcement of environmental protection policies, with deforestation hitting a 12-year annual high in 2020, with 11,088km2 destroyed, the article adds. According to a new study published in Nature, swaths of forest were deliberately cleared and burned for cattle ranching and farming during the far-right leader’s time in office, reports the Guardian. The period was as destructive as the 2016 El Niño drought and heatwave in terms of carbon emission, it adds. The Guardian quotes Luciana Gatti at the National Institute for Space Research in Brazil, who led the research, saying: “Bolsonaro was a Brazilian El Niño. The analysis suggests there is no reason for the big emissions from the Amazon apart from the dismantling of law enforcement.” Burned areas across the Amazon basin increased by 14% in 2019 and 42% in 2020, compared to the average from the previous eight years, reports RTE. Since Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva succeeded Bolsonaro in January, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has fallen by 42.5%, versus the same period last year, the article notes.

Developing an industrial policy, particularly in a time of “geopolitical fragmentation” is fraught with complexity, writes the Financial Times in an editorial. With governments seeking to emulate and respond to the US’ Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), there are principles “worth heeding”, it says. These include creating a welcoming business environment, investing in modern infrastructure and training, developing an openness to trade and a stable long-term policy environment, it states. Targeted support and interventions should be considered in some cases, but should not aim to recreate an entire global supply chain at home, and the type of policy support tool should be carefully considered. Above all, industrial policy should not exclude competition, the article states. It concludes: “Rising to the challenges of the climate transition, technological change and unstable geopolitics requires targeted and well-designed interventions from national governments. But if leaders decide increasingly to override free markets and open trade, they will find it even harder to reach their goals.”

Meanwhile, an “oil and gas industry veteran” called David Blackmon writes in the Daily Telegraph that policies brought in by the Biden administration, such as the IRA, are going to create a “serious energy crisis” in coming years. He points to the “Orwellian” IRA, arguing it provides a “carrot in the form of billions of dollars in new subsidies for EV makers and buyers alike, while the Biden EPA applies the proverbial stick by invoking stricter tailpipe emissions controls and higher mileage requirements designed to force most current internal combustion engine (ICE) models out of the market.” Blackmon argues that the expansion of the EV sector is a “looming trainwreck”, adding: “Unless the direction of US federal energy policy shifts soon, Americans appear destined to face an entirely government-manufactured energy crisis in the coming years, probably sooner than anyone currently expects”.

In contrast, the Guardian’s Charlotte Naughton describes her UK and Ireland road trip in an electric car, where, despite fear mongering about EV travel, “nothing went wrong”.

Political leaders lack the courage to take tough decisions, argues senior fellow of the Social Market Foundation Kames Kirkup in the Times. He makes the case for “small ideas”, which includes helping households get heat pumps installed by setting up “one-stop shop” services. The most successful policies of the last century were all decisions to do the right thing and there was trust that the public will accept them in the future, writes Kirkup, adding. “We need more of this. Call it what you like: technocracy; paternalism; leadership. It’s a bet on voters being smart enough to swallow medicine that can be bitter but is definitely necessary. It’s courage. And it’s courage, not ideas, that our leaders need more of.”

The upcoming Africa Climate Summit in Kenya offers an opportunity for African people to coalesce around a “Pan-African agenda” that “does away with fossil fuels and its unjust legacy, while laying the groundwork to build resilient and sovereign energy systems that are compatible with our environment”, writes Don’t Gas Africa facilitator Lorraine Chiponda in African Arguments. She highlights the historically limited benefits of fossil fuel extraction in the continent, as well as its disproportionate impact of climate change. The legacy of fossil fuels has allowed rich nations a “foothold in Africa’s affairs”, with gas developed in the continent pumped out to meet the energy demands of wealthy nations while 600 million people in Africa are still without electricity. She concludes: “The issue of justice should be at the centre of all these climate talks. The climate debt should be paid. Relief should be provided for communities bearing the brunt of climate disasters. And climate finance must be availed to poorer nations.”

The only thing that the current generation absolutely needs to do for the next generation is to stop burning fossil fuels as quickly as possible, writes Greg Jericho, Guardian columnist and policy director at Australia’s Centre for Future Work. He points to the Australian intergenerational report (see above), which looks at the need to improve productivity and warn about debt, taxation and the ageing population. But “if you’re worried about the next generation, the only thing that matters is climate change”. “We urgently need a steep path towards net-zero”, finishes Jericho: “Failure to do that and you can talk about the ageing population, government debt and even productivity all you like, but it will be moot.” 

Meanwhile in the Daily Telegraph, the climate-sceptic editor of its Sunday edition Alistair Heath tries to argue that the “lunacy of climate change fanatics is driving humanity to extinction”. He points to an “eco-extremists’ fixation with over-population”, as he notes decline birth rates in many countries, highlighting the drivers as a decline in religiosity, urbanites having fewer children, male struggles with the labour market “making them less attractive to better-educated women” and societal values.

Floating ice shelves around Antarctica show a trend towards thinning over the satellite era but the pace of change appeared to slow slightly from around 2008, according to new data. The study used 26 years of satellite measurements and a new surface mass balance model to construct a high-resolution database of ice shelf thickness and basal melt rates. The authors attribute the slight reduction in thinning in the Amundsen, Belingshausen and Wilkes sectors – where some of the fastest melt rates are found – to complex feedbacks, which they say will need to be accounted for in future studies of marine ice instability.

A new study explores how model pathways that limit warming to 1.5C might be affected by factors, including the pace of roll-out of low carbon technology and new information that may reduce scientists’ estimate of the remaining carbon budget. The authors test the resilience of an integrated assessment model to various “adverse” situations, finding that limiting warming to 1.5C remains achievable “provided a broad portfolio of technologies and measures is still available”. In the case where multiple adverse situations occur simultaneously, however, the results suggest that mitigation costs could be 4-5 times higher by 2050 than in the reference scenario where no adverse situations arise.