Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has defeated far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro to become president of Brazil, the country most key to determining the fate of the Amazon, the world’s largest rainforest. The Associated Press reports: “Twenty years after first winning the Brazilian presidency, the leftist defeated Bolsonaro Sunday in an extremely tight election that marks an about-face for the country after four years of far-right politics. With 99.9% of the votes tallied in the runoff vote, da Silva had 50.9% and Bolsonaro 49.1%, and the election authority said da Silva’s victory was a mathematical certainty. At about 10 pm local time, three hours after the results were in, the lights went out in the presidential palace and Bolsonaro had not conceded nor reacted in any way.” Amazon deforestation and erosion of Indigenous land rights has soared under Bolsonaro. According to AP, Lula said in his acceptance speech: “We will once again monitor and do surveillance in the Amazon. We will fight every illegal activity. At the same time, we will promote sustainable development of the communities of the Amazon.” In a tweet, Lula added: “Brazil is ready to resume its leading role in the fight against the climate crisis, protecting all our biomes, especially the Amazon forest. In our government, we were able to reduce deforestation in the Amazon by 80%. Now, let’s fight for zero deforestation.” Commenting on Lula’s acceptance speech on Twitter, Amazon-based journalist Jonathan Watts said: “I can’t remember any leader – in Brazil or any other country – devoting so much time and energy to nature and the climate at such a moment.” Meanwhile, actor and environmentalist Leonardo DiCaprio tweeted: “The outcome of the Brazilian election presents an opportunity to change the course of history, not just for Brazil & the Amazon, but for the world.” The Financial Times says that Lula is “convincing” on environmental issues, adding: “Aides say he wants Brazil to take centre stage in the fight against global warming, with fresh commitments to preserving the Amazon rainforest and exporting renewable fuels.” A Guardian analysis examines Lula’s likely approach to tackling Amazon deforestation, as well as poverty and housing issues. Recent Carbon Brief analysis found that Lula’s victory could lead to Amazon deforestation falling by 89% over the next decade, if key pledges are met.

In an interview with the Guardian, Sameh Shoukry, the foreign minister of Egypt and chair of COP27, warns that the global ambition to limit temperature rise to 1.5C by 2100 is “more fragile than ever”. He tells the Guardian: “[The circumstances for COP27 are] quite challenging. They exceed the circumstances that existed in Paris or in Glasgow in terms of the challenge and impacts, economic or geopolitical. But we have to remain hopeful and focused and try to isolate and insulate the negotiating process from some of the external circumstances.” He also tells the Guardian that rich countries are losing the trust of the developing world because they are falling behind on commitments to cut emissions and provide climate finance to poor nations. He adds: “If countries are to backtrack or deviate from their commitments, and their efforts to maintain those agreements and understandings made in Paris and Glasgow, we will be on track to have over 2C and maybe up to 3.6C, according to the science available. These are contradictions and everybody has to be serious in dealing with those contradictions.” COP27 begins in Egypt on Sunday.

The interview comes as Bloomberg reports that developed nations are still far from meeting the 2009 promise to leverage $100bn in climate finance by 2020. Elsewhere, the Associated Press reports that major annual emitter India is expected to “exercise its influence yet again to look out for its own interests” at COP27. A second AP story says Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez has called on global leaders to prioritise solutions to climate change threatening food security in African countries and the effects on the continent of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during an official visit to South Africa.

A Sunday-night scoop in the Financial Times reports that the UK’s new prime minister Rishi Sunak might attend COP27 after all, following a large fallout from his announcement on Thursday that he will not be going to the global meeting of leaders along with leaders such as Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron. The FT reports: “Sunak’s allies said on Sunday that the prime minister’s priority ‘first and foremost has to be focusing on domestic issues’, but they left open the possibility that he might fit in the summit in Egypt that starts on 6 November. ‘Going depends on progress,’ said one, adding that Sunak’s diary was currently focused on dealing with the economic crisis and the government’s autumn statement due on 17 November.” The Times reports that Sunak had a “change of heart” on attending after he found out former prime minister Boris Johnson was planning on going. (Johnson’s ambition to attend was revealed by the Observer on Saturday night.) The Times says: “There is an outside chance that the prime minister will make a fleeting appearance at the talks in Egypt if progress is made on key tax and spend decisions, the Times understands.” It comes after Conservative MP and COP26 president Alok Sharma criticised Sunak’s decision not to attend the summit on the frontpage of the Sunday Times. Sharma told the newspaper: “I’m pretty disappointed that the prime minister is not going. I understand that he’s got a huge in tray of domestic issues that he has to deal with. But I would say that going to COP27 would allow for engagement with other world leaders. And I think it does send a signal – if the prime minister was to go – about our renewed commitment on this issue.” The Independent reports that Conservative peer and Climate Change Committee chair Lord Deben is also critical of the decision and general UK government efforts to tackle global warming. The decision not to attend also sparked “global anger” in developing-world countries, the Guardian reports.

And this comes after a frontpage story in the Times on Saturday reported that Sunak had decided to uphold his predecessor Liz Truss’s decision to not allow King Charles III to attend the summit. The Times reported: “Charles is believed to be disappointed by the advice from No 10 that he should miss the event, which starts in Egypt next weekend, with allies suggesting that Sunak should let him go to prove Britain’s environmental commitment.” (Environment secretary Therese Coffey appeared to contradict this on Friday by saying the King was free to attend COP27 if he wanted to, the Guardian reports.) Over the weekend, it emerged that the King is now planning on holding a pre-COP27 reception of 200 leaders, politicians and campaigners at Buckingham Palace, BBC News reports. BBC News says: “The gathering in London will be held on 4 November, a couple of days before the summit begins in Egypt. Buckingham Palace said the event was taking place to mark the end of the UK’s hosting of COP26. King Charles has been a longstanding campaigner on protecting the natural environment and has warned of the dangers of climate change.” An exclusive in the i newspaper reports that the King also met with US climate presidential envoy John Kerry this weekend. And the Evening Standard says that Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon will be attending COP27.

A frontpage story in the Daily Mirror reports that more than a quarter of the £530,000 donated to Sunak this year was from supporters with interests in oil, gas and aviation. (It comes after similar reporting in Byline Times.) Reacting to the news, shadow climate secretary Ed Miliband says: “Sunak is on the side of the big oil and gas companies, not the British people. We’ve seen it time and again including him refusing a proper windfall tax on the rocketing profits of these energy giants.” In an interview with the Guardian, Conservative MP and COP26 president Alok Sharma also calls for a strengthening of the UK’s windfall tax on oil and gas companies. The Financial Times reports that Sunak is currently “examining a U-turn on another of his predecessor’s energy policies by scrapping a revenue cap on low-carbon electricity generators in favour of a more straightforward windfall tax”.

In other UK energy news, the Guardian reports that Conservative politician Michael Gove has said the HS2 rail project is among projects under “review” as the government tries to find ways to cut spending. Elsewhere, the Daily Express speaks to lobbyists who think the government should scrap its scheme to help people change from boilers to heat pumps.

Reuters reports that China’s strict Covid-19 policies are “constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices”, citing “industry officials and traders”. The newswire adds that the move comes “just weeks before the country’s north switches on mostly coal-fired heating systems for winter and demand jumps”. It continues that China’s “top three coal production regions” have reported “hundreds” of Covid cases in recent weeks, according to data from the country’s health commission. The provinces introduced strict transport curbs this month, leaving some mines unable to ship coal out and forcing them to slow or halt production, the article highlights.

China Energy News reports that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s top economic planner, and the National Energy Administration (NEA), the country’s top energy regulator, have jointly issued a notice to “promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry chain”. Meanwhile, Caixin Global reports that China exported “490 times as much synthetic ammonia in September as it did one year prior”, after “disruptions” to Europe’s gas supply “forced firms there to reduce energy-intensive production of the chemical fertiliser component”.

Separately, Aziz Durrani writes in a comment piece on Project Syndicate that, “if not addressed, the risks climate change poses to ASEAN+3 countries [Japan, China and South Korea] could have far-reaching implications for the region’s agricultural production, water availability, energy security, transport and infrastructure, tourism industries and coastal resources”.

The state-run newspaper China Daily reports that state councillor and foreign minister Wang Yi held a high-level meeting with Saudi counterpart last Thursday. Wang is quoted saying that “China welcomes Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of an independent energy policy and is making active efforts to maintain the stability of the international energy market”. The state broadcaster CGTN covers the same news. Finally, the state news agency Xinhua says that China’s clean-energy projects and technical assistance overseas have “not only worked as a magic wand turning barren, tropical areas into energy oases, but also helped fully harness the natural endowment of many countries”.

On Saturday, protesters marched through Manhattan, New York, to “demand greater government action to address the climate crisis that is worsening storms” such as Hurricane Sandy that hit the city 10 years ago, the Guardian reports. Even today, “New York and New Jersey are still piecing communities back together” and “some of the repairs have taken years”, the story says. Just as New York has “embarked on enormous, lengthy infrastructure projects”, critics point to “redrawn and delayed flood defence projects, outdated flood maps, ongoing inequities and a real estate market that has sprung back”. The story quotes the city’s comptroller Brad Lander who says “the climate crisis is moving far faster than we are…New York City will fail to get ready in time for the next storm.”

The storm that killed 43 residents and caused $19bn in damage has since “awaken[ed] residents to a vulnerability many had not previously appreciated”, Financial Times writes, pointing out that “workers have at last broken ground on the first of a ring of new defences that will, perhaps by 2030, gird lower Manhattan”. But the city “is not only facing the growing risk of coastal flooding but also extreme heat and interior flooding from larger storms”, with local authorities painting lamp posts along the waterfront “light blue” to “impress upon residents just how high the tide may climb”. The Independent revisits its reportage of “America’s shock-and-awe storm”.

While “billions have been spent hardening infrastructure” and building better barriers since, Hurrican Ida – where “people drowned in basement apartments far from any ocean or bay– showed the area was not ready for another storm”, theAssociated Press reports. “Are we better off than we were before Sandy? No question…But it’s not enough,” Shawn LaTourette, New Jersey’s environmental protection commissioner tell the newswire.

In an essay for the New York Times, Manhattanite Marco Pasanella writes that he still keeps “those [rubber boots] by the door”. While the “cobbled streets of the historic Seaport” were his home for 20 years. “I wonder whether I should just accept that the future of Manhattan’s most threatened neighbourhood lies under water,” he writes, while asking “is relocating something that only other people do?”

The Financial Times reports that “the threat of a trade war between the EU and the US over the Biden administration’s $370bn climate legislation [the Inflation Reduction Act] has stepped up, as France estimated it would lose €8bn as businesses were given incentives to shift to the US.” According to the FT, France “has been sounding the alarm in recent weeks that the IRA is unfairly protectionist. French buyers of electric cars are eligible for a subsidy of up to €7,000 regardless of where the car is manufactured. In the US, an income-tested rebate of up to $7,500 will apply to new cars made locally.”

It comes as the New York Times reports that Biden’s agenda for issues including climate change “hangs in the balance” if Republicans capture one or both houses of Congress in midterm elections, as polling suggests. And Reuters reports that bumper profits from US oil and gas companies have revived calls for a windfall tax.

Many publications publish editorials and comment pieces ahead of COP27, the global climate summit starting in Egypt on Sunday. An editorial in the Washington Post says: “Climate negotiations have yielded incremental, piecemeal agreements, none of which are binding. The upcoming conference, COP27, will be complex and fraught, with thorny questions about financing and compensation to developing countries on the agenda. It will almost certainly leave all parties unsatisfied. Yet, slow-moving and cumbersome as it is, the UN system represents the world’s best hope at averting catastrophe. It has already spurred progress. Even partially met climate pledges move the needle.”

It comes as an editorial in the Guardian says that the “only option is to keep trying”. It reads: “Giving up on further progress via the UN process, and by other means including new taxes on oil companies, is not an option.” Separately, the Guardian publishes a COP27 cartoon. The Observer also previews COP27, including by exploring some of the most record-breaking and impactful extreme weather events to take place this year.

Elsewhere, Climate Home News takes a look at the nine people who could shape the agenda at COP27. In addition, the New York Times decides to mark the moment by publishing a comment piece by climate-sceptic columnist Bret Stephens titled: “Yes, Greenland’s ice is melting but…”

Many UK newspapers have published reaction to the on-off-maybe news regarding Rishi Sunak’s attendance of COP27. An editorial in the Observer says: “His claim that he cannot go to the summit because he is too busy with his autumn finance statement reveals an ineptitude and short-sightedness that bodes ill for the governance of this country…We should be clear. The UK cannot sideline the unfolding climate catastrophe on the grounds we have more important things to do. Britain began this whole grim story…For its leader to shun this responsibility is an embarrassment and a disgrace.” An editorial in the Independent says “Rishi Sunak needs to make time for the climate crisis – before it’s too late”. An editorial in the Sunday Times says Sunak’s judgement has been “called into doubt” by his decision to stay away from COP27. It adds: ““Britain is, and should be, at the forefront of the debate on how to confront climate change. Its scientists and businesses have led the way on searching for solutions.”

In contrast, the Daily Telegraph carries an editorial today which says Sunak should not attend the “jamboree” in Egypt, adding: “This will be an early test of Mr Sunak’s resolve: can he be pushed into adopting a position he evidently regards as a waste of his time when he has pressing domestic matters to address? If he gives way now, he will look weak, and a good deal of political capital will have been expended on defending his position.” An editorial in today’s Times takes a similar line: “There is no requirement for him to engage in performative politics to stress his commitment…The meat of decisions on mitigating climate change can be negotiated perfectly well virtually rather than in person.” [This argument was shown to be false last year during the 100% virtual Bonn negotiations.] The Daily Express is excited by the prospect of the “dream team” of both Sunak and Boris Johnson potentially both attending COP27.

The Times carries a letter by Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, who says: “Is it too much to hope that Sunak will quickly join the dots as well and realise that it is in both the national and global interest that he and the King play leading roles in Egypt?” In contrast, the Daily Telegraph promotes the views of columnist Zoe Strimpel who argues that “Rishi Sunak was right to give the COP27 summit a miss; these events have become deeply hypocritical”.

Elsewhere, Politico has published a news feature by Karl Mathiesen which begins: “Britain has failed to pay out more than $300m it promised to two key climate funds, leaving it facing further international embarrassment in the final days of its stint as the world’s official climate action leader.” The Daily Telegraph carries a long screed by climate-sceptic “thinker” headlined: “Eco-extremists are leading the world towards despair, poverty, and starvation.” Additionally, the Daily Telegraph promotes the views of climate-sceptic Conservative politician Peter Lilley, who once was paid to advise an oil company when an MP, and is now claiming that “blame for the fracking tragedy lies at Labour’s door”. (Labour have not been in power for 12 years.) Finally, the climate-sceptic editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal bemoans Sunak’s refusal to allow fracking in England.

Each 1C of global warming increased the duration of compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events over land by three days over 1951-2014, new research finds. Over 2020-2100, every additional 1C of warming will increase the duration of these events by about 10 days, it adds. The authors quantify observed changes in CDHW events over land and project future changes under four different emission scenarios, using climate models from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Under all but the lowest emission scenario, the authors find “a significant increasing trend in CDHW characteristics over almost all global lands”. There is a “stronger increasing trend” across northern North-America, Caribbean, Mediterranean and Russian-Arctic regions, they add.