This July is “virtually certain” to be the hottest month on Earth, according to a warning by scientists which received blanket coverage across the world’s press. Responding to the news, UN chief António Guterres said the planet is entering an “era of global boiling”, reports BBC News and others. “Scientists agree the extra heat is mainly linked to fossil fuel use,” BBC News says. The news and the “global boiling” comment makes the frontpages of the Guardian, the i newspaper and the Metro, among others. The New York Times describes the news as “the latest milestone in what is emerging as an extraordinary year for global temperatures”. “The extreme weather which has affected many millions of people in July is unfortunately the harsh reality of climate change and a foretaste of the future,” Dr Petteri Taalas, the secretary general of the UN’s World Meteorological Organization, said in a statement. “The need to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions is more urgent than ever before.” As the news broke, BBC News hosted an “ask me anything” with its climate reporter Esme Stallard. The story also features in MailOnline, Daily Telegraph, Independent, Financial Times, Politico, Le Monde and the Irish Times, among other global media. (Carbon Brief reported its own analysis on Wednesday, showing that this month would set a record for the warmest July “by an extremely large margin”.)

In an interview with AFP, eminent UK scientist and new head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jim Skea, said he will bring “a judicious blend of realism and optimism” to his leadership of the UN’s expert climate panel, “including a firm belief that humanity is not powerless to confront global warming”. “We need to make the point that human beings do have choices they can make, and agency over their own future,” Skea told AFP in Nairobi, where the elections for other IPCC leadership positions are also underway. Skea told AFP he would not consider “rushing out” the next round of IPCC reports, currently due in five to seven years, over his concern it could risk the “gold standard” that the IPCC is respected for. He also told AFP that he would strongly resist pressure to publish more “special reports” on particular topics, saying they dragged on the IPCC’s core work and resources. “I’ll say something very strongly – over my dead body will we see lots and lots of special reports,” he said. Reuters also interviews Skea.

The Daily Express reports on recent analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) finding the UK’s reliance on gas could cost the country up to 3% of its GDP a year through price shocks. The piece quotes several “green” Conservative MPs. Alexander Stafford, Tory MP for Rother Valley, tells the Express: “We are far too reliant on gas for power and heating. As this analysis warns, we need to switch to cleaner forms of energy like offshore wind and nuclear, or taxpayers could face an enormous bill to shield our economy from future gas price spikes. Doubling down on clean energy is more than just a way to tackle climate change. It’s the best way to protect taxpayers from another energy crisis, winning green investment and creating jobs in the process.” The Press Association reports that UK renewables generated a record amount of power in 2022. The Financial Times reports that 60 MPs, mostly Conservative, have called on the government to do more to subsidise the production of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). On Twitter, environmental journalist Roger Harrabin says that the Commons Transport Committee has urged the government to take measures to tackle the number of drivers on the road. 

Elsewhere, the i newspaper reports in an “exclusive” that prime minister Rishi Sunak is due to meet King Charles at Balmoral, after suggesting he might be open to watering down the UK’s climate commitments. A separate analysis in the i newspaper says Sunak is likely to “feel the heat over climate change” from the King, who is a known environmentalist. 

In a frontpage story, the Daily Telegraph reports on former Labour prime minister Sir Tony Blair’s comments in an interview with broadcaster Andrew Marr for New Statesman, where he warned against asking the public to do a “huge amount” to tackle climate change. According to New Statesman, Blair described climate change as “the single biggest global challenge”, adding: “Britain should play its part in that. But its part frankly is going to be less to do with Britain’s emissions. I mean, one year’s rise in China’s emissions would outscore the whole of Britain’s emissions for a year.” [Carbon Brief analysis shows that the US has emitted the most CO2 since the start of the industrial era, despite China being the world’s largest emitter today. The UK is the world’s eighth largest emitter since the start of human-caused climate change.] Blair continues: “Don’t ask us to do a huge amount when frankly whatever we do in Britain is not really going to impact climate change. The number one issue today – and this is where Britain could play a part – is how do you finance the energy transition? Because, basically, the developed world’s emissions are going down, but the developing world’s are going up. These countries have got to grow, so how do you finance the transition? Secondly, how do you accelerate the technology?” [Developed countries, including the UK, collectively failed to meet their promise made at UN climate talks to supply developing nations with $100bn in climate finance by 2020.] A comment for the Independent by chief political commentator John Rentoul says Blair’s remarks are “shocking” but “right”. The Times also reports on Blair’s comments.

It comes as the Press Association reports that shadow net-zero secretary Ed Miliband told the BBC Radio Four’s World at One programme that there is no rift between him and Labour leader Keir Starmer over green policies. He told the programme: “The truth is that Keir Starmer is absolutely 100% committed to the project of clean energy by 2030, which is the way to cut bills and give us energy security and tackle the climate crisis. And he’s also absolutely committed, as is Rachel Reeves [shadow chancellor], to ramping up to £28bn a year of investment to bring the good jobs that we need for our country. And you know what? If Labour wins the election, we will never have had a prime minister and a chancellor so committed to this agenda and I’m incredibly proud to work alongside them.” The Guardian reports that Miliband also said on BBC Breakfast that Sunak must close the “Swiss cheese holes” in the government’s windfall tax on fossil fuel companies.

In addition, the Daily Telegraph has a story saying the UK’s Met Office has urged caution over the interpretation of a new study examining the risk of collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). 

Elsewhere, City AM reports that biomass power station Drax is still “locked in talks” with the government over its plans for a £2bn carbon capture project.

An alliance of rightwing groups “has crafted an extensive presidential proposal to bolster the planet-heating oil and gas industry and hamstring the energy transition”, the Guardian reports. It continues: “Against a backdrop of record-breaking heat and floods this year, the $22m endeavour, Project 2025, was convened by the notorious rightwing, climate-denying thinktank the Heritage Foundation, which has ties to fossil fuel billionaire Charles Koch. Called the Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise, it is meant to guide the first 180 days of presidency for an incoming Republican president. Climate experts and advocates criticised planning that would dismantle US climate policy. The nearly 1,000-page transition guide was written by more than 350 rightwingers and is full of sweeping recommendations to deconstruct all sectors of the federal government – including environmental policy.” It comes as president Joe Biden announces a new plan to protect workers from extreme heat, the New York Times reports. Elsewhere, the Hindu interviews US climate envoy John Kerry, who says no US president will be able to walk back on climate commitments in the future.

The “long-awaited” relaunch of China’s voluntary carbon market, known as the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) scheme, “could happen as early as October”, writes the South China Morning Post. Polo Heung, research associate at HSBC, is quoted saying: “we believe one of the biggest beneficiaries will be forestry”. The newspaper adds that Heung believes the challenges include “technical requirements and CCER credit quality”.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government jointly issued a notice on “promoting the healthy development of the modern coal-chemical industry”, reports the state-sponsored industry newspaper China Energy News. The notice says that China will “strictly and tightly control the scale of coal-chemical production capacity and new coal consumption”, the paper notes. Chinese outlet Jiemian carries the views of Xing Lei, from China’s Central University of Finance and Economics. He says that the policy document hints China is “not allowing the development of the coal chemical industry to cause a reduction in thermal coal supply” and that the country’s carbon emission reduction is still “under great pressure”. China Dialogue has published an article by Zhang Shuwei, chief economist at Draworld Environment Research Center in Beijing, titled: “How to keep coal unprofitable in China.”

Separately, Yicai reports that Hu Runqiu, China’s minister of ecology and environment (MEE) says that China has become a “major force in leading global climate action”. Another article by the Chinese financial outlet writes that Huang says that the MEE will continuously improve air quality, and “speed up the promotion of clean heating and the transformation of key industries with ultra-low emissions” in the northern regions. China News Service carries an interview with Pan Jiahua, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, who says that for China to achieve carbon neutrality, he is “most in favour” of a path where “zero-carbon renewables gradually squeeze out fossil energy in the energy market”. China Science Daily has picked up research led by Wang Rong from Fudan University on an “optimal path” for accelerating solar and wind power for achieving the 2060 carbon neutrality goal. (The research was published by Nature.) State news agency Xinhua writes that the latest data shows that China’s energy resource utilisation efficiency “continues to improve”, and “the industrial green and low-carbon transformation is steadily advancing”.

In other news, Singapore-based Lianhezaobao reports that Ren Jingdong, China’s deputy director of the National Energy Administration, met with the US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm on 21-22 July. It quotes Ren saying both sides should “conduct dialogues and cooperation in the energy sector”. The Diplomat has a comment piece by Taylah Bland, from Asia Society Policy Institute, who writes: “[T]he fastest way to avoid the worst effects of climate change may be to just allow each side [China and US] to do what it is motivated to do at home and through international fora, rather than advance bilateral cooperation for cooperation’s sake.” Finally, the Shanghai Securities News reports that China Meteorological Administration has activated the level 1 response for “super typhoon” Dusuri.

Germany has agreed on a new national hydrogen strategy, reports Süddeutsche Zeitung. It aims to “significantly strengthen” the role of “green” hydrogen by 2030, which is “a crucial” component in replacing fossil fuels. The newspaper quotes the German economy minister Robert Habeck saying that “investments in hydrogen are an investment in our future”, highlighting the importance of hydrogen for economic growth. However, the outlet notes that environmental groups “are critical” of the fact that the government also wants to temporarily promote hydrogen produced from “natural” gas. EurActiv details that the German hydrogen strategy includes doubling domestic electrolysis capacity from 5 gigawatts (GW) to at least 10GW by 2030, which assumes a total hydrogen demand of 95 to 130 terawatt hours (TWh) for 2030. In addition, Reuters notes that, according to the strategy, Germany will still have to import up to 70% of its hydrogen. 

Meanwhile, Climate Home News reports that Germany intends to back new gas projects overseas until 2025, potentially conflicting with its commitment to cease international fossil fuel financing. The government’s export credit agency has released a draft policy to provide guarantees to the energy sector, “claiming to align with climate protection targets”, notes the outlet. However, critics, such as Adam McGibbon from Oil Change International, says Germany’s claims of climate leadership are “laughable”, arguing that the policy goes “against scientific evidence” on tackling climate change.

Elsewhere, the Local reports that Habeck wants to extend the price cap on gas and electricity until next Easter, offering households three extra months of energy costs relief. Finally, Berliner Zeitung reports that a new study by NGO More in Common shows that support for the climate and environmental movement has halved in Germany in two years from 68% to 34%.

Writing for the Guardian, Carbon Brief’s deputy editor Dr Simon Evans examines a claim by the Conservative peer and former lead Brexit negotiator David Frost that global warming is “likely to be beneficial”. Evans explains: “Attempts to derail climate action often come in the form of ‘discourses of delay’, where there is no denial of climate breakdown but the impression is given ‘that solving climate change is not our job, that it will not require substantial changes, that it is too expensive, or that it is pointless to try’. So it is actually quite refreshing to hear one of the UK’s most prominent critics of net zero saying the quiet part out loud: there’s no need to tackle the climate crisis, Frost suggested, because it will be a good thing. If only he were right. In support of his claim, Frost quoted the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) on the reduction in UK deaths during winter months, partly caused by milder temperatures, which have so far outweighed increased mortality from extreme heat. But Frost failed to quote the very next line from the GAD report: ‘However, periods of extreme heat may play a more important role in mortality trends in the future, particularly if temperatures continue to rise.’ Moreover, as the GAD notes, the UK faces many other climate risks.”

It comes as Carbon Brief’s editor Leo Hickman speaks on the Sky News Daily podcast about the “tobacco playbook” tactics sceptics use to undermine climate science. In addition, BBC News climate disinformation reporter Marco Silva reports on how false claims suggesting that the BBC has been misreporting temperatures in southern Europe have been spreading on social media. In the Big Issue, Desmog reporter Adam Barnett warns that “climate denial sharks are circling” since the Uxbridge byelection, which saw Conservatives hold on to the seat amid criticism of Labour mayor Sadiq Khan’s measures to tackle air pollution. In the Financial Times, data journalist John Burn-Murdoch cites Carbon Brief analysis and argues that “everyone loses if net-zero becomes the new partisan divide”. And an Independent editorial warns the UK government against “diluting” climate policies.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Daily Telegraph carries a column by climate sceptic commentator Andrew Lilico, who seizes upon Frost’s remarks to argue that “eco-activists prophesy the end of human civilisation – but their view is not shared by many scientists and economists”. The Daily Telegraph also publishes a column by notorious sceptic Ross Clark which describes smart meters as a “catastrophe”. Meanwhile, the Daily Mail publishes a full-page attack on heat pumps, by special investigations editor Sue Reid. And the Daily Express carries a column by Aleksandra Binkowska, founder of “Hydrogen Utopia International” – a company that has yet to produce any hydrogen at scale – comparing electric cars to “dodos” and saying they are “risky business”.

Writing for Al Jazeera, Oman’s energy minister Salim Al Aufi and International Energy Agency chief Dr Fatih Birol say that the country shows how fossil fuel producers can “embrace clean energy” ahead of the COP28 climate summit to be held in Dubai in December. They write: “Beyond fossil fuels, Oman is endowed with significant natural resources such as solar and wind and to some extent, geothermal and tidal energy. Expanding renewable power generation can bring many positive impacts. These include opportunities to decarbonise domestic industries, making them more competitive, as international markets are set to have more opportunities for the trade of low-emissions industrial products such as steel.”

Human-driven land-use change 2,500 years ago made ancient Europe hotter than it would have otherwise been, a new study finds. Researchers compare the output from a regional climate model containing modelled land cover with one that uses a land-cover map derived from pollen records. They find that the simulations that use the recreated land cover are up to 1C hotter in northern Europe’s winter and 1.5C hotter in southern Europe’s summer than the simulations based off of potential land cover. The researchers attribute the difference to a “high portion of open land in forested regions” in the pollen-derived map.