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TODAY'S CLIMATE AND ENERGY HEADLINES
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Today's climate and energy headlines:
- Japan storm: Nine million people told to evacuate as super typhoon Nanmadol hits
- US: Puerto Rico and Alaska, opposite corners of the US, face near simultaneous disasters
- EU plans to upgrade its Paris Agreement climate target – document
- China and India among SCO states urging 'balance' in climate approach
- Criticism intensifies after big oil admits ‘gaslighting’ public over green aims
- UK: ‘It beggars belief’: Liz Truss energy plan ‘shows government doesn’t understand climate crisis’
- Vulnerable countries demand global tax to pay for climate-led loss and damage
- Burning world’s fossil fuel reserves could emit 3.5tn tons of greenhouse gas
- Australia's Origin Energy quits shale gas exploration
- What I saw as the country’s first national climate adviser
- As resistance grows to the fossil fuel regime, laws are springing up everywhere to suppress climate activists
- Climate change increases global risk to urban forests
News.
Super typhoon Nanmadol – one of the worst typhoons that Japan has ever seen – has killed two people and injured almost 90, BBC News reports. The outlet notes that nine million people have been told to evacuate their homes, and almost 350,000 homes are currently without power. The typhoon “hit Kyushu, the southernmost of Japan’s four main islands, on Sunday morning, and is set to reach Honshu, the largest island, in the coming days”, it adds. A rare “special warning” was issued ahead of the storm, the Guardian reports. It continues: “[The storm] was packing gusts of up to almost 150mph and had already dumped up to 500mm of rain in less than 24 hours on parts of the south-western Kyushu region.” Reuters reports that the storm brought “record rainfall” to the west of Japan on Monday. And up to 400mm of rain could fall in the Tokai area, south-west of Tokyo, by Tuesday morning, according to the Financial Times.
There is widespread media coverage of two storms, that hit Alaska and Puerto Rico over the weekend. The Washington Post reports that Hurricane Fiona hit Puerto Rico on Sunday, causing the entire island to lose power. It adds: “Up to 2 feet [60cm] of water washed away bridges, carved chasms in the ground and is in the midst of triggering hundreds to thousands of mudslides. President [Joe] Biden has already issued a disaster proclamation for the island.” Meanwhile, Alaska “suffered a destructive hit by the remnants of Pacific Typhoon Merbok on Friday and Saturday, which brought hurricane-force winds and a 10-foot [3m] storm surge”, the paper says. It continues: “Both storms affected marginalised communities in often-overlooked regions of the United States – in Puerto Rico, where the entire island is frequently treated as a distant cousin of the US mainland, and in Alaska, where Indigenous populations reliant on fishing and hunting for subsistence were among the hardest hit. The comparably remote nature of both impact zones…will make recovery efforts even more challenging.”
Hurricane Fiona “hit Puerto Rico as a Category 1 storm on Sunday, dumping more than 20 inches (50cm) of water in some places”, the Independent reports. The Financial Times notes that around 1.3 million people have no electricity, adding that Biden has pledged to boost federal support for the island. The power outages “rekindle anger over Puerto Rico’s privatised electric grid”, according to Politico. The paper continues: “The US territory’s power system has never recovered from the devastation wreaked five years ago by Hurricane Maria, which caused an estimated 2,975 deaths and decimated Puerto Rico’s power, water and health care systems. Since then, residents have suffered from frequent power outages, with the grid so fragile that every one of the island’s 1.5 million customers lost electricity even before Fiona pounded the island…The grid’s struggles go back years, stemming partly from under-investment in basic maintenance by the bankrupt, government-owned Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, as well as the slow flow of billions of dollars in federal disaster aid. But the predominantly Spanish-speaking island’s problems are also rooted in its status as a US territory with no voting representation in Congress and no electoral votes for the presidency.” Since Hurricane Maria knocked out power in 2017, “restoration work has been focused on replacing those lines, while most other facets of the grid have not been updated”, Reuters says in a piece asking “what has happened to Puerto Rico’s power grid since Hurricane Maria?” Politico reports that more than 3,000 homes on the island were “still covered by blue tarps” after the 2017 storms. The New York Times notes that the Trump administration restricted aid funds after Hurricanes Irma and Maria hit the island in 2017. It adds: “The Biden administration began freeing up the aid and removing the restrictions shortly after taking office last year, as part of an effort to address racial disparities in the impact of climate change.” In the Dominican Republic, Hurricane Fiona “caused severe floods, cutting off villages, forcing about 12,500 from their homes and leaving 709,000 without power”, Reuters says. Fiona “is expected to become a major hurricane late Monday or on Tuesday, according to the Monday night forecasts”, the New York Times reports. Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports that Alaska has suffered its “fiercest storm in years”. The paper says: “The full extent of the storm’s impact may not be clear for days, but residents across the state’s low-lying western coast are still grappling with water damage, power outages and other hazards. The impacted areas span well over 1,000 miles [1,600km] of coastline, including ‘some of the most remote areas of the United States,’ according to Jeremy Zidek, public information officer with Alaska’s Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.”
In other US news, Reuters reports that Biden met with South Africa’s prime minister Cyril Ramaphosa on Friday, on “topics that included trade, climate and energy”. US climate envoy John Kerry has “cautioned against investing in long-term gas projects in Africa”, the newswire reports separately.
A draft document seen by Reuters suggests that the EU plans to raise its nationally determined contribution [NDC] – a target for emissions reductions made under the Paris climate agreement – although the upgrade is unlikely to happen in time for this year’s UN climate summit”. The outlet continues: “The EU ‘stands ready to update its NDC in line with the final outcome of the ‘Fit for 55’ package in due time, the draft said, referring to a package of climate policies EU countries and lawmakers are negotiating. The draft could still change before EU countries approve it in October.”
The Independent reports that Greenpeace is taking legal action against the EU, arguing that the inclusion of gas and nuclear in its list of green investments violates European climate law. The paper says: “Eight Greenpeace organisations sent a formal request for internal review to the European Union’s executive arm, the European Commission on 8 September…The Commission now has until February to respond to Greenpeace’s arguments, according to the group. If the Commission does not agree to disinclude gas and nuclear from its list of sustainable investments Greenpeace says it will take the case to the European Court of Justice.” Meanwhile, four other environmental groups have started legal action against the European Commission for its inclusion of gas as a green investment, EurActiv reports. The Financial Times calls the decision to designate gas as a sustainable energy source “remarkable”. The paper says that “until a couple of years ago, the EU wanted to remove gas from the energy mix as soon as possible”, adding: “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed perceptions entirely. Instead of potentially stranding natural gas assets in the decade ahead, policymakers have shifted their attention to how they can keep the lights on and homes warm this winter. Tens of billions of euros of investment in gas projects will follow.” [The EU Sustainable Finance Taxonomy includes gas under limited circumstances. Updated EU plans published since Russia’s invasion see gas demand falling much faster by 2030 than under previous policy.]
Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports that Brussels’ plan to lower energy prices across the EU – including windfall taxes worth €140bn and a mandatory cut to peak electricity use – is “facing pushback from industries for being too vague and by member states for not allowing enough flexibility to account for national energy markets”. The Financial Times reports that France is setting course for a “nuclear renaissance”, while Reuters reports that the Dutch governent will impose a cap on energy contracts from 1 January 2023. Reuters covers measures by different European countries to prepare for the winter “energy crunch”. Elsewhere, Germany “has brought the national subsidiary of Russian oil company Rosneft under state control to ensure security of supply from a major refinery whose operations look set to be disrupted by looming EU sanctions on Russian oil”, according to Politico. Separately, Associated Press says: “The European Central Bank said Monday that it will give corporations climate scores before it buys their bonds and intends to prioritise those doing more to reveal and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”
In other European news, the New York Times reports that “intense rainstorms and flash floods” in central Italy have left at least nine people dead. Reuters adds: “Around 400mm (15.75 inches) of rain fell within two to three hours, the civil protection agency said, a third of the amount usually received in a year” The Washington Post calls the rainfall “unprecedented”. And Reuters says that “the European Union saw 16% more deaths than usual in July as a record-breaking heatwave hit parts of the continent”.
Leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) “called for a ‘balance’ between reducing carbon emissions and allowing poorer states to catch up with economically developed countries” in a joint statement adopted on Friday, Reuters reports. The newswire adds that in the statement, the heads of some of the world’s “biggest emitters” – including China, India and Russia – said they “unanimously recognised the negative consequences of climate change and the need for urgent action, but called for increased investment in oil and gas production and exploration”. Xinhua says the summit adopted more than 40 documents on areas including “safeguarding global food security, international energy security, addressing climate change, and maintaining a secure, stable and diversified supply chain”. Global Times also has the story.
Meanwhile, a widely-syndicated Agence-France Presse article says that China has “stepped up spending on coal in the face of extreme weather, a domestic energy crunch and rising global fuel prices”, adding that this move raises “concerns Beijing’s policies may hinder the fight against climate change”. (The article cites Carbon Brief’s analysis which shows that the overall carbon emissions in China have fallen for four consecutive quarters.) Separately, the South China Morning Post writes that an “extensive rooftop-solar-power campaign highlights how China is betting heavily on clean and renewable energy” in a time of “increasing power crunches and disruptions”. The outlet adds that the new-energy industry – which includes solar photovoltaics – has “remained one of the very few bright spots in China’s economy, attracting an abundance of investment capital”.
In other news, the South China Morning Post carries an opinion piece by Mathieu Nègre, titled “US and China must return to climate cooperation soon – without Asia, the energy transition will fail”. Elsewhere, the state broadcaster CGTN has published an opinion piece by Yi Xin, who explains “what Biden’s climate bill means for climate change”. Finally, the state news agency Xinhua runs an article titled “US envoy slammed for downplaying climate crisis in Africa”.
Internal documents from oil companies including ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell and BP show that “the oil industry’s obfuscation over the climate crisis is intensifying”, the Guardian reports. According to the paper, the documents show that the companies “attempted to distance themselves from agreed climate goals, admitted ‘gaslighting’ the public over purported efforts to go green, and even wished critical activists be infested by bedbugs”. DeSmog adds: “The US House Committee on Oversight and Reform released a memo on 14 September that detailed documents and internal communications from oil companies including BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil, which show efforts to heavily promote their investments in promising technologies to address climate change, such as algae biofuels and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), while internally expressing doubt about the viability and immediacy of those investments.”
Sir David King – head of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group – has told the Independent that “Liz Truss’s energy plans show the UK has effectively abandoned net-zero targets”. King told the newspaper that plans announced last week by Jacob-Rees Mogg – including lifting the moratorium on fracking and expanded oil and gas drilling in the North Sea – are “extremely alarming” and “‘completely at odds’ with the UK’s legally binding net-zero target”. He added: “If we do invest in new oil and gas recovery, it will take a minimum of five years to get to the marketplace and more like 10-15 years, which is the average. In which case, they’re not dealing with the current crisis at all, and instead are investing in an operation that is likely to become a stranded asset.” The Times reports that Lord Deben – the chair of the independent Climate Change Committee – has told Truss to “look at the facts” on fracking, which he says will be too costly and will not provide quick relief from the energy crisis. The Guardian reports on plans to give support for business energy bills, which have not yet been set out in detail, saying that Truss has been “warned of mass bankruptcies if firms [are] left in limbo”. The Times previews Truss’ expected policy announcements this week: “Truss is filleting much of her predecessor’s legislative agenda, with several of [Boris] Johnson’s bills set to be delayed or dropped. The energy security bill – which included measures to reform the industry – is to be withdrawn, with the most important elements put into a new growth bill.”
A separate Guardian piece warns that “consumers may end up paying higher bills if the government rushes into providing further state support for power station owner Drax”. The paper says: “As part of Liz Truss’s £150bn energy bills freeze, renewable and nuclear power generators are being asked to supply electricity below current market rates. Officials have begun to ‘negotiate’ with generators on older wind, solar and nuclear contracts, which have benefited from windfall gains as the price of gas has soared, to persuade them to switch to newer, less lucrative deals, which lock in lower prices in return for guaranteed long-term income. It is understood Drax, which owns the vast power station complex in North Yorkshire and is Britain’s single biggest source of carbon emissions, could also negotiate over units 2 and 3 at its plant, which receive renewable obligation certificate (ROC) payments for burning biomass wood pellets, making them eligible for the scheme…However, there are growing fears that the government is in a weak negotiating position.” Meanwhile, “senior executives at several power generation groups, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Times that while they did not want a windfall tax, they now believed it may be the best option for this winter, since it would only target actual profits”. The article quotes executives warning the implementation of long-term contracts could negatively affect companies that had “hedged” their output by selling expected future generation at below market rates.
Meanwhile, the Guardian reports that “the royal family stands to benefit from a huge windfall from the boom in offshore energy, potentially sparking a debate about funding the monarchy”. And the personal finance section of the Daily Telegraph, quoting climate-sceptic lobby group Net Zero Watch, “breaks down how the government’s net-zero ambitions might be hurting your pocket, and the policies that should be scrapped”.
Elsewhere, the Guardian covers the results of a new study, which finds that “insulating homes in Britain and installing heat pumps could benefit the economy by £7bn a year and create 140,000 new jobs by 2030”. But the paper adds that the uptake of these energy-saving measures “depends heavily on government policy” and “currently, ministers have little planned to encourage households to take up home insulation”. The Daily Express reports that “Will Hodson, the co-founder of LookAfterMyBills, is urging the government to introduce a National Insulation Scheme to bring energy bills down permanently”. Elsewhere, the Times reports that energy firm Octopus “is doubling what it pays customers for their surplus solar power”. Meanwhile, Kevin McCloud – presenter of homebuilding show Grand Designs – has adviser the general public to get a heat pump and solar panels, the Daily Telegraph reports.
In other UK news, the Guardian reports that “King Charles may find political tussles with Liz Truss hard to avoid”. The paper notes that Charles has pledged to stand above politics, but says that he is a “man of strong views” and “might not see eye to eye” with Truss on issues including the environment and energy policy. US climate envoy John Kerry said he hopes King Charles will continue his work on global warming” as King, BBC News says. Palace sources say that Charles “will continue to champion the environment while on the throne”, but will “highlight” rather than “campaign” his causes, the Daily Telegraph reports. The King “will no longer travel to the COP27 world leaders’ summit in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, in November, when he was due to push his own green agenda and announce a new forum on sustainability”, the paper adds. “All hail Charles III – the gregarious, green-fingered grandpa of the nation,” the Times says. And the Scotsman has published an editorial titled: “Climate change: King Charles should continue Queen Elizabeth’s efforts to spur the world into action.”
Documents seen by the Guardian suggest that “the world’s most vulnerable countries are preparing to take on the richest economies with a demand for urgent finance”. The leaked document will be discussed this week at the UN General Assembly, the paper says. It continues: “[The paper] shows that poor countries are preparing to ask for a ‘climate-related and justice-based’ global tax, as a way of funding payments for loss and damage suffered by the developing world. The funds could be raised by a global carbon tax, a tax on airline travel, a levy on the heavily polluting and carbon-intensive bunker fuels used by ships, adding taxes to fossil fuel extraction, or a tax on financial transactions.” Meanwhile, UN climate chief Simon Stiell – former climate and environment minister of Grenada – has warned leaders that “there can be no backsliding” on international climate efforts ahead of COP27, Climate Home News reports. According to the outlet, Stiell said that global emissions need to be halved by 2030 – only two Olympic finals away. Elsewhere, Climate Home News lists “five burning climate issues for the 2022 UN general assembly”. These include the recent flooding in Pakistan and soaring energy bills.
New research finds that burning the world’s proven reserves of coal, oil and gas would produce 3.5tn tons of greenhouse gas emission, the Guardian reports. This is “more planet-heating emissions than have occurred since the industrial revolution”, the paper says. It continues: “The database, which covers around three-quarters of global energy production, reveals that the US and Russia each have enough fossil fuel reserves to single-handedly eat up the world’s remaining carbon budget before the planet is tipped into 1.5C (2.7F) or more of heating compared to the pre-industrial era. Among all countries, there is enough fossil fuel to blow this remaining budget seven times over.”
Research covered in the Times finds that “climate change has already pushed up to two thirds of urban tree species beyond their healthy limits by disrupting rainfall patterns and raising temperatures”. New Scientist notes that “around three-quarters of the tree and shrub species currently grown in cities worldwide are predicted to be at risk from hotter and drier conditions by 2050”. The researchers looked at “more than 3,000 species of trees in 164 different cities, from the US to South Africa to China”, the Independent adds, while BBC News notes that “city-dwelling oaks, maples, poplars, elms, pines and chestnuts are among more than 1,000 tree species flagged at risk due to climate change”.
Elsewhere, the Financial Times covers new research, which finds that $1tn per year of investment in renewable power is needed every year to meet 2030 targets. The newspaper continues: “The report calculated the world would need to add four times the amount of renewable energy that was deployed in 2021 every year by 2030, and drastically scale up hydrogen production to reach net-zero emissions and stem global warming from burning fossil fuels.” New Scientist covers new research, which finds 44 of the 48 most populous coastal cities have areas sinking faster than the sea is rising, driven by groundwater pumping and compacted soil from heavy buildings”. And the Independent covers a new study which proposes a way of refreezing the poles by spraying aerosol particles from planes.
Origin Energy – Australia’s second-largest power producer – yesterday agreed to sell its stake in an early stage but potentially high-producing shale gas basin in the Northern Territory, saying it would exit some other gas exploration permits as it focuses more on renewable energy, reports Reuters. Origin said it would sell its 77.5% stake in the Beetaloo Basin joint venture for A$60m ($40m), looking to boost investment in renewable energy and its retail arm instead, the newswire says. But it adds that the firm will still benefit from any development of the project, as it will receive a 5.5% royalty on future production from the permit and will buy 36.5 petajoules of gas a year for a decade. Origin chief executive Frank Calabria tells Reuters that the decision means the firm will be “getting the benefits” without the “capital intensity over time”, adding: “It doesn’t change our view on gas. Gas is still going to play a critical role.” Environment groups and Indigenous traditional landowners had attacked the project over concerns about the effect fracking the area might have on the water table, reports the Guardian. Johnny Wilson, chair of Nurrdalinji Native Title Aboriginal Corporation, told the paper that “fracking is not what we want” and hoped Origin’s announcement was the start of more companies rejecting gas exploration in the Beetaloo. ABC News says that “there have also been warnings that there might not be enough carbon credits in Australia to offset all emissions from fracking in the basin”. The Financial Times also has the story.
Elsewhere, the Guardian repots that greenhouse gas emissions from gas and oil extraction in Australia rose 20% in the five years after the 2016 introduction of the “safeguard” mechanism, a policy supposed to stop increases. The paper explains: “Under the safeguard, the big polluting sites are each set an emissions baseline, or limit. Companies that breach that limit are supposed to pay for their excess emissions. In practice, they have often just been allowed to increase their limit without penalty, prompting claims from climate campaigners and industry leaders that the scheme was pointless unless properly used.” The new analysis, by the Australian Conservation Foundation, shows that “emissions from coalmining had increased slightly over the five years, but those from gas and oil extraction had ballooned by 20%, primarily due to the opening of new developments”, the paper says. A separate Guardian article says the government has promised to keep the safeguard and reform it, but the consultancy firm that has previously modelled the impact of the policy for the Labor party has warned against a proposal that “could hand free carbon credits to big industrial polluters”.
In other Australia news, the Australian Associated Press reports that farmers in north-west New South Wales are preparing to be cut off after the Namoi River broke its banks, inundating rural towns and sparking several flood rescues. It adds that “the Bureau of Meteorology has issued flood warnings for the river, including major flooding at Wee Waa and Gunnedah after the river peaked early on Sunday”. The Guardian reports that Australia’s defence department has warned the government it has been under intense pressure due to the need to respond to “near persistent” natural disasters, and noted “the impacts of climate change” when requesting more cost-effective ways to manage the continual callouts. And in an exclusive, the Guardian also reports that a new scientific member of the government’s revamped Climate Change Authority has said Australia should be aiming to reach net-zero at least a decade earlier than 2050.
Finally, in related comment, Adam Morton, Guardian Australia’s climate and environment editor, writes on Labor’s promise to bid to host the COP climate talks in 2024, noting that it “could pressure Australia to rejoin the Green Climate Fund, increase its 2035 emissions target and ditch new coal and gas developments”.
Comment.
Gina McCarthy, the departing US national climate adviser and a former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, has penned an opinion piece in the New York Times. “Over the past 20 months as America’s first-ever national climate adviser, I have witnessed a paradigm shift: The private sector no longer sees climate action as a source of job losses, but rather as an opportunity for job creation and economic revitalisation,” McCarthy says. She points to a shift in attitudes in the electric vehicle industry, as an example. “What helped change the conversation were the voices of young leaders as the effects of climate change worsened,” McCarthy notes. She continues: “Public and private investments in research and development have also fuelled the growth of clean technologies, driving down the costs and attracting industry…When President Biden came into office, he signed executive orders that created timetables and milestones for every sector of the economy and mobilised his entire administration toward this goal…Then, we secured the historic Inflation Reduction Act — the most aggressive action on climate in US history. When Obama took office, there were 500 charging stations nationwide. Now, thanks to President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, we plan to install 500,000 chargers across the country.” She concludes: “The road is still long, and progress will be uneven. But as I leave my post in the White House, I am optimistic that America is now poised to lead this decisive decade.”
In other US comment, the Financial Times carries a comment piece by Los Angeles correspondent Christopher Grimes, titled “California’s car culture isn’t ready for net-zero”. The Washington Post has an editorial titled: “The world’s ice is melting. Humanity must prepare for the consequences”. Elsewhere, theoretical physicist Steve Koonin, who has become notorious for getting climate science wrong since serving as under secretary for science at the US Department of Energy under President Barack Obama, has penned an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal titled “Don’t believe the hype about Antarctica’s melting glaciers.”
Commenting in the Guardian, writer and broadcaster Jeff Sparrow observes that anti-protest laws are “proliferat[ing” as the “climate crisis accelerates”, To him, “these developments are not unrelated”. Sparrow points to new research about key ecological tipping points that “may have already been passed”, just as companies “develop new oil and gas fields to the tune of$932bn by the end of 2030 – and an eye-popping $1.5tn by 2040”.
Meanwhile, chief economics commentator of the Financial Times Martin Wolf writes that “Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng…are gamblers on a huge scale” and that “the UK is now on trial”. He argues that the country’s new energy package is “wrong” on several different counts – it is “too generous”, “ill-targeted” as it fails to “raise taxes on the better off or increase support for the least well off” and “unsustainable”. Wolf says that “too much of the cost [of the energy package] falls on public borrowing…instead of imposing price controls on domestic energy producers” and that it “creates significant macroeconomic risks”.
Separately, in Energy Monitor, Dave Keating writes that “it will be a difficult winter across Europe, also for EU countries, but the EU’s early coordinated action will help it weather the storm” and that “by going it alone, the UK has squandered months it could have spent preparing”. He says that “were the UK still a member of the EU, its government would have been part of the energy crisis preparation meetings in Brussels…obligated to fill its gas storage facilities and set up sharing arrangements with neighbours.”
In the Daily Telegraph long-time opponent of climate action Tony Lodge writes that “Britain’s energy crisis is a national political humiliation” which is “a direct result of a generation of cross-party policy failures and contradictions”. According to Lodge, some of these include approvals for “weather-dependent renewables and more interconnectors to import power from the Continent, thus offshoring British energy jobs, resilience and security”.
Separately, the Sun features a column by its former political editor Trevor Kavanagh, titled: “Some of Liz Truss’ plans will enrage and infuriate, but they’re designed to save us from Putin-inflicted winter meltdown.” Kavanagh writes that “we cannot allow anything to stand in the way between heating and eating” while describing the green levy on energy bills – which makes up less than 5% of the total and includes support for the country’s poorest homes – as “a rich man’s tax on poor people”.
Science.
A new study of 3,129 urban tree and shrub species in 164 cities across 78 countries finds that 56% and 65% of the species are currently exceeding, respectively, the temperature and rainfall conditions experienced in their geographic range. Under the RCP6.0 emissions scenario, the species at risk rises to 76% and 70% for average temperature and rainfall, respectively, by 2050. The risk is “predicted to be greatest in cities at low latitudes – such as New Delhi and Singapore – where all urban tree species are vulnerable to climate change”, the authors say. An accompanying News & Views article notes that the study “has not explicitly incorporated the warming effects of future urban growth”, which “may compound the risk for the areas identified”.