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TODAY'S CLIMATE AND ENERGY HEADLINES

Briefing date 09.10.2024
Hurricane Milton: Monster storm re-intensifies to Category 5 as Florida braces for direct hit

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Climate and energy news.

Hurricane Milton: Monster storm re-intensifies to Category 5 as Florida braces for direct hit
NBC News Read Article

There is widespread coverage of Hurricane Milton, which is approaching Florida as a Category 5 storm. NBC News reports that millions of people in Florida have been told to evacuate, with state governor Ron DeSantis warning that “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida”. It adds: “The National Hurricane Center predicts landfall late Wednesday, but an NBC News forecast predicts landfall slightly later, between 2am and 6am Thursday.” US president Joe Biden also urged Florida residents to evacuate “now, now, now”, according to the Financial Times. The FT reports that the storm was hurtling towards land on Tuesday night with winds of 165 miles per hour (265kmph), and is expected to drive storm surges of up to 15 feet (4.5m) in some areas. Ahead of the hurricane, Disney World in Orlando has closed for its 11th time in history, Florida Today reports. The Associated Press reports that Florida airports have begun cancelling hundreds of flights, with Biden warning companies not to overcharge people fleeing the storm’s path.

Many publications examine how the formation of Milton was affected by record ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. A Guardian explainer reports that, “within barely a day, Milton went from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane, the strongest possible rating”, adding: “The storm underwent ‘rapid intensification’, which is when a storm increases by at least 35mph over a 24-hour period. Milton’s blistering pace obliterated this benchmark, accelerating by 90mph in around 25 hours, according to the research group Climate Central. This has created one of the strongest hurricanes to ever menace the US.” The Guardian quotes Noah Bergren, a Florida-based meteorologist, who said: “This is nothing short of astronomical. This hurricane is nearing the mathematical limit of what Earth’s atmosphere over this ocean water can produce.” The Guardian adds that a “key determinant” of rapid intensification is the “heat content of the ocean and atmosphere”, with “hotter air and water provid[ing] greater energy to a storm”. It adds: “Crucially, the Gulf of Mexico has been reaching record temperatures for much of this year, with its waters likened to a bathtub over the summer. The core of Milton is passing over some exceptionally warm water, around 2C to 3C hotter than average for this time of year. Milton is being turbocharged by excess heat, much like Helene was just two weeks ago.” Separately, the Guardian reports that the “double punch” of Hurricane Milton following Hurricane Helene is becoming more likely due to climate change, according to experts. The Atlantic says that Hurricane Milton is the storm “scientists were dreading”, also noting the influence of record ocean heat on the storm’s formation.

In addition, the New York Times is among publications covering a new World Weather Attribution analysis finding that fossil fuel-driven climate change made Hurricane Helene, the deadliest US storm in two decades which made landfall just days ago, more likely and more severe. It says: “Their assessment is a warning to Americans that Helene was rare but no fluke. Instead, it represents the kind of storm that the nation can expect to experience more often as societies continue burning coal, oil and gas for energy…After analysing Helene, an international team of scientists estimated that the storm dumped 10% more rain than a similarly extreme storm would have done in cooler times. As it roared ashore, its winds were about 13 miles per hour more intense.” Elsewhere, the Financial Times covers an analysis finding that rising global temperatures caused “extreme rainfall events” around the world in September.

Renewable energy to fall short of UN goal to triple by 2030, IEA says
Reuters Read Article

A new International Energy Report (IEA) report says that renewable energy is set to meet nearly half of all electricity demand by the end of the decade, but to fall short of a UN goal to triple capacity to reduce carbon emissions, Reuters reports. The world is set to add more than 5,500 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity between now and 2030, almost three times the increase between 2017 and 2023, according to the IEA Renewables 2024 report, Reuters says. The newswire continues: “It said the increase is equivalent to the current power capacity of China, the European Union, India and the US combined, but not enough to meet a target set at the COP28 UN climate conference. For the world to triple capacity, governments need to intensify efforts to integrate renewables into power grids. This requires the building and modernising of 25m kilometres of electricity grids and reaching 1,500GW of storage capacity by 2030, the IEA said.” The Guardian notes that China is expected to account for almost 60% of all renewable energy capacity installed worldwide between now and 2030, according to the report.

Elsewhere, Reuters covers a report by consultancy DNV finding that global energy-related CO2 emissions are set to peak this year. The report says this is “due to falling costs for solar and batteries which are encouraging less coal-fired power and oil use”, Reuters adds. Striking a different tone, Investment Executive covers a report by capital market company Fitch Ratings finding that the global economy is not decarbonising fast enough to reach the world’s climate targets. “The ratio of emissions-to-GDP fell by just over 1%, broadly in line with the average annual decline of the previous 25 years and massively short of the 8% annual decline needed in 2020-2030 to achieve net-zero by 2050,” the report says, according to the publication.

COP29: Ministers sign off on fresh climate finance pledges
ENDS Europe Read Article

EU finance ministers on Tuesday finalised a text on climate finance that calls for a phase out of “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions as soon as possible” and for a transition “away from fossil fuels in energy systems”, according to ENDS Europe. It explains: “The conclusions, which will inform the EU’s negotiating stance at the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, next month, also calls on multilateral development banks to ‘phase out fossil fuel related finance as soon as possible’ and for ‘all climate finance contributors’ to make sure their funds are not ‘used for fossil fuel related activities’. Ministers emphasised the role of the private sector in providing climate finance, saying it ‘will have to undertake the largest share of the required investment in net-zero, resource-efficient and climate-resilient development’.” Politico sums up the approach by saying: “The EU’s (vague) climate aid stance: Want more money? Get more donors.” It comes as the Financial Times reports that the bosses of Bank of America, BlackRock, Standard Chartered and Deutsche Bank are among prominent financiers who are expected to skip COP29, “as business expectations are lowered for the world’s most important climate negotiations”. The Times is among UK publications reporting that King Charles will also not be attending the summit.

New UK climate watchdog chief joins from energy trade group
Financial Times Read Article

Emma Pinchbeck, head of trade body Energy UK, has officially been announced as the next chief executive of the UK’s official climate advisory group, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the Financial Times reports. The CCC said that Pinchbeck would take over in November, ahead of its recommendations next year for the UK’s seventh “carbon budget” for the 2038-42 period, the FT reports. The Press Association reports that energy secretary Ed Miliband has defended “baseless allegations” from the Conservatives about the appointment of Rachel Kyte as the UK’s climate envoy. Separately, the Daily Telegraph reports that the Confederation of British Industry is urging the government to cut taxes for electric cars, heat pumps and biofuel manufacturing “to accelerate the drive to net-zero”. The Times reports on a warning from the boss of EasyJet that holidays are becoming “around £200” more expensive because of “unexplained green taxes” imposed by countries in Europe.

India in rush to boost oil production before energy transition
Financial Times Read Article

The Financial Times reports that India will “radically reform regulations” and invite foreign oil majors to explore its onshore and offshore oil reserves “as it races to extract as much oil as possible while there remains a market for crude”, citing the country’s oil and gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri. It quotes Puri saying at an FT summit in Delhi: “We sat down with the majors and said: ‘Look, guys, tell us which are the areas where you want tweaking in policy?’ In the next session [of parliament], which will be fully next month, I will get that bill passed and it will be enacted into law.” Puri is also quoted saying that he had met with Exxon, Chevron and Petrobras and invited them to join Oil India in prospecting off the coast of the Andaman islands. The newspaper continues quoting Puri saying that, India has “several” oilfields the size of ExxonMobil’s 11bn barrel discovery in Guyana waiting to be discovered, and that the country “needed to move quickly to tap them before the world switched to other forms of energy” to meet climate targets. The Economic Times reports that India has cleared 1m square kilometres (sq km) of its 3.5m sq km sedimentary basin – “a significant portion previously classified as a ‘no-go’ area”– for oil and gas exploration and to attract global investors. Meanwhile, Reuters, citing data from the federal grid regulator, says that India’s coal-fired power output fell for a second straight month in September on an annual basis, due to slower growth in electricity use and a surge in solar generation. The Hindu carries a comment on “lessons for India” from the “sunset” of coal-fired power in the UK.

Separately, the Indian Express reports India’s external affairs minister S Jaishankar stating that “conflicts…have diverted global political attention from critical issues such as [multilateral development bank] reforms and climate change”. The Economic Times covers new Ember analysis showing, it says, that India needs to “ramp up wind energy deployment by 22% annually” to meet its target of generating 122GW of wind power by 2032. Mongabay reports that Ladakhi climate activist and engineer Sonam Wangchuk was finally released by Delhi police late on 2 October “more than 36 hours after he and 150 others were held in police custody in the national capital”. It adds that Wangchuk’s memorandum to the Indian government “reiterated demands” for the protection of the Himalaya, while drawing attention to melting glaciers and “urgi[ng]” the government to achieve net-zero emissions before 2070.

China clarifies three major measures to regulate the total amount and intensity of energy consumption
People’s Daily Read Article

China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the top economic planner, announced three measures to “clarify regulations of the total amount and intensity of energy consumption control” at a press conference yesterday, reports the Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily. The measures are: “expand the space for incremental energy consumption”, “deeply tap the existing energy-saving potential”, as well as “step up efforts to implement energy consumption [goals] for major national projects”, adds the newspaper. Industry news outlet BJX News covers the same press conference and refers in its headline to “encouragement” for purchasing “green electricity and green electricity certificates (GECs)”, which it says can stimulate the “consumption of renewable energy”. The NDRC will also “guide” the fossil fuel consumption at the local level, and “strictly” prevent the “blind and disorderly” launch of new “high-emission projects”, according to the outlet.

Elsewhere, China has imposed “temporary anti-dumping measures” on imports of brandy from the EU, Reuters reports. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is also “mulling whether to impose tariffs on European pork and dairy products, as well as gasoline-powered cars with large engines”, says the New York Times reports. The Financial Times, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) and Bloomberg also cover the story.

Finally, Reuters reports that Jose Fernandez, under secretary for economic growth, energy and the environment at the US Department of State, says that “Chinese lithium producers are flooding the global market with the critical metal and causing a ‘predatory’ price drop as they seek to eliminate competing projects”. The state-supporting newspaper Global Times publishes a comment piece under the title: “US tariff policy foretells risks of protectionism in solar sector.” China’s BYD has received no “direct” signal from India on a “possible easing of stringent investment rules for Chinese businesses” as the auto manufacturer looks to “expand in a fast-growing market” and make vehicles in India, Reuters reports.

Climate and energy comment.

The world’s renewable energy potential is gridlocked
Editorial, Financial Times Read Article

An editorial in the Financial Times warns that electricity grid and storage capacity is being outpaced by renewable energy growth. Citing the IEA Renewables 2024 report (see above), the editorial says: “As a result, significant volumes of green energy capacity are being held back. In America, close to 2,500GW of renewably sourced electricity was waiting to be connected to the grid last year, according to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. In some cases, governments have had to pay renewables companies not to generate electricity, at taxpayers’ expense, to avoid clogging up the network…What needs to be done? The obvious answer is for governments to support the development of the grid…But better storage capacity is the other piece of the puzzle.” The Times has an editorial celebrating fossil fuel company BP’s decision to abandon its target to cut oil production, saying: “In sensibly scaling back its environmental targets, the oil major offers a salutary example to politicians of the need to balance climate-friendly policies against short-term costs.” The Sun publishes an editorial urging chancellor Rachel Reeves to keep the freeze on fuel duty, put in place by Conservatives in 2010. [Carbon Brief analysis shows UK CO2 emissions are up to 7% higher than they would have been without the freeze.] The editorial also cites a survey by the fossil-fuel firm British Gas finding UK households are more concerned about the cost-of-living crisis than climate change.

Elsewhere, the Financial Times has a comment piece by European journalist Richard Milne saying that business leaders have warned that European policymakers are “ill prepared” for the costly challenges associated with the “green transition”.

New climate research.

Warming and disturbances affect Arctic-boreal vegetation resilience across northwestern North America
Nature Ecology and Evolution Read Article

A new paper finds that warming and disturbances are impacting vegetation resilience across the northwestern North American Arctic-boreal ecosystem. The authors quantify vegetation resilience over 2000–19 by measuring “remotely sensed greeness”. They find that vegetation resilience has “significantly decreased” in southern boreal forests. “Warm and dry areas with high elevation and dense vegetation cover were among the hotspots of reduced resilience,” they add. The study also finds a further decline in vegetation resilience both before and after forest losses and fires – especially in southern boreal forests.

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