The rains that triggered deadly floods in Cameroon, Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Sudan in recent months were made 5-20% more intense by human-caused climate change, Al Jazeera reports, citing analysis from the scientists at World Weather Attribution (WWA). The outlet quotes study author Izidine Pinto of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute saying: “With every fraction of a degree of warming, the risk of extreme floods will keep increasing.” The recent floods in Africa killed around 1,500 people and displaced more than 1 million in western and central parts of the continent, according to UN aid agency OCHA, reports Reuters. It adds that, according to WWA, similar levels of rainfall would be expected nearly every year in the affected regions if global warming reaches 2C above pre-industrial levels. Agence France-Presse also has the story.

The UK’s energy secretary Ed Miliband is facing “a crucial decision looming on how far and how fast to cut the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions”, the Guardian reports. It says Miliband is preparing a new international pledge – the UK’s next “nationally determined contribution” (NDC) under the Paris Agreement – covering the period to 2035. It adds: “The prime minister, Keir Starmer, promised at the UN general assembly last month to present the UK’s next emissions-cutting pledge at the forthcoming UN climate summit, COP29, in Azerbaijan from 11 November.” The newspaper quotes economist Lord Stern and Mike Hemsley, deputy director of the Energy Transitions Commission saying that the UK should be targeting a 78% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, relative to 1990 levels. [The previous Conservative government legislated a 78% by 2035 target in the UK’s sixth carbon budget, a figure that includes the UK’s share of international aviation and shipping.] The newspaper also quotes Friends of the Earth saying that, when excluding international aviation and shipping, the UK’s target for 2035 should be 82%. It says the advisory Climate Change Committee will offer advice on the target before next week and adds: “The question of whether to push for tougher targets, or to hold back on the grounds that other countries should do more, is likely to be a key tussle within the Labour cabinet.”

From July to September this year, China’s direct economic losses due to natural disasters, such as super typhoons and floods, reached 230bn yuan ($32bn), “more than doubled from the first six months of 2024”, Reuters reports, citing data released by the country’s Ministry of Emergency Management (MEM) on Tuesday. The newswire adds that “the numbers highlight how China is increasingly exposed to destructive weather phenomena that is amplified by climate change”. China News also covers the story, saying that between January and September 2024, direct economic losses caused by natural disasters reached 323bn yuan ($44bn), affecting 84 million people and crops across 9.05m hectares. (This story does not mention climate change.)

The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports that the share of fossil fuel in the power capacity of BRICS countries, which include Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and other nations, will drop below 50% for the first time this year “amid rapid growth of renewable energy and declining [fossil fuel] development”, according to the non-profit Global Energy Monitor. Bloomberg says that the US and Europe will push for China in November’s COP29 to “join their ranks and begin paying up”, but that Beijing is expected to defend its “developing-nation status”. Japan Times carries a commentary arguing that China’s leadership in clean technology will give it significant “soft power”. 

State-run newspaper China Daily reports that China and the EU need to “heighten collaboration” in key areas, including decarbonisation of power, according to a report by the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS) and Greenpeace. China Daily also quotes Liu Qibao, a member of the government advisory body Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), saying cooperation between China, Europe and Africa in new energy will “help to address global climate change”.

Meanwhile, China issued 477m green electricity certificates (GECs) in September, including 111m wind GECs and 70m solar GECs, state broadcaster CCTV reports. China’s gas demand is expected to “grow to more than 600bn cubic metres (bcm) by 2040 from 400bcm today”, according to Reuters. BJX News publishes a Q&A with an official from China’s environment ministry about the carbon allowance allocation plan for 2023 and 2024. (The story was previously covered in Tuesday’s Daily Briefing.) Business news outlet Caixin carries an “explainer” on China’s new export controls regulations, stating that “China already controls the export of specific products, such as antimony, germanium, gallium” and other critical minerals, adding that the “new rules will streamline previously scattered control lists”. 

The US government has announced $428m in grants for 14 clean energy manufacturing projects in communities affected by the closure of coal plants and mines, Reuters reports. It adds: “Many of the projects are in states that have leaned Republican in recent elections or are battleground states.” Separately, Reuters says the administration has “extend[ed] a semiconductor manufacturing tax break to producers of solar wafers”. It adds: “The move is the latest effort by the administration to build out a domestic solar supply chain as part of its climate change and jobs agenda.” A third Reuters article says the government has allocated $196m for the repair and replacement of gas pipelines across 20 states, with a “focus on replacing old, leak-prone pipes which pose safety hazards, inflate energy costs, and contribute to environmental harm”.

In other US coverage, the New York Times looks at “America’s flooding problem”, including the increasing challenges posed by climate change. And Bloomberg looks at the risks posed by “chronic heat”. It says: “Much of the US has experienced a ‘zombie summer’, with abnormally high temperatures that meteorologists expect to last through the end of October. Sustained bouts of below-record heat have health and economic impacts, although researchers say they’re still under-studied.”

The International Monetary Fund says the shift to electric vehicles (EVs) will have “far-reaching” impacts on investment, production, trade and employment, Reuters reports. The newswire says the comments were part of the fund’s latest world economic outlook, released yesterday, which it quotes saying: “The rising adoption of electric vehicles represents a fundamental transformation of the global automotive industry. It will have far-reaching consequences.” Bloomberg says that China has exported more than 60,000 electric vehicles (EVs) to the EU last month, ahead of the bloc’s EV tariffs taking effect at the end of October. A Reuters comment by columnist Andy Home says that EVs will “prove a bumpy ride for battery metals”.

At least six people have died in Cuba as a result of Hurricane Oscar, BBC News reports, adding that the storm made landfall during an island-wide blackout. Reuters says “upwards of 10 inches (25cm) of rain fell in many areas”. It adds: “Cuba’s oil-fired power plants, already obsolete and struggling to keep the lights on, reached a full crisis this year as oil imports from Venezuela, Russia and Mexico dwindled, culminating in last week’s grid collapse.” The Associated Press coverage notes that the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) “predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year because of record-warm ocean temperatures”. The Economist says: “Belatedly, the government is turning to solar panels, which offer a far cheaper method of generating electricity than burning oil (something it has promised to do for years). Vicente de la O Levy, the energy minister, has said the government plans to install some two gigawatts of solar capacity by 2028, enough to cover about a fifth of the island’s electricity needs.”

Separately, the Associated Press reports that another hurricane, Kirsty, has formed in the Pacific coast off Mexico, but is not expected to make landfall. Reuters reports that hurricanes Helene and Milton are expected to have cut Florida’s citrus crop to the lowest on record.

The UK government has asked the National Energy System Operator (NESO) to draw up “a blueprint for developing the country’s energy infrastructure to 2050 in order to provide investment stability and cost reductions”, Reuters reports. It adds: “The first ever strategic spatial plan for energy will set out the locations for new energy infrastructure, which the government hopes will speed up the transition away from fossil fuels, the government said in a statement.” The newswire says the first version of the plan will be published in 2026. The Press Association says the strategic plan will help speed up “the transition to clean power”, according to the government. It explains: “The National Energy System Operator (NESO) will look at how to best spread new energy projects while taking other sectors into account, such as transport and water, as well as the environment, the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) said. The NESO will then present to ministers several options for how the energy system could look in the future, with the chosen option taken forward to public consultation alongside detailed environmental assessments.” Bloomberg says NESO will develop a methodology for the plan by the end of the year. It says: “The project will initially focus on power generation and storage, including hydrogen, but could be expanded to other energy sources like natural gas.”

In other UK news, BusinessGreen reports that the Department for Transport is consulting on changes to the country’s airspace “to cut flight times, noise and CO2”.

World economy editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in the Daily Telegraph that the oil producers’ cartel Opec and the International Energy Agency (IEA) “used to be aligned” on future demand for oil, but now they have “diverged drastically over the last four years, reflecting the warring ideologies of the old order and those who think – as I do – that clean technology will make us richer and geopolitically safer and is therefore unstoppable”. Evans-Pritchard writes: “You can take a political view that America and Europe will dial back green policies as voters rebel. But be careful of projecting this onto the global south, the region that is supposed to save oil demand in media folklore. RMI, a sustainability thinktank, says the south is already starting to outpace the north and is doing so as a matter of economic self-interest. The south has 60% of the world’s population but 20% of its fossil fuel output. However, it has 70% of the world’s renewable potential and therefore has an edge on electrification.” He concludes: “Opec tells us that oil demand will continue to grow for decades to come as if technology stands still. Pull the other one gentlemen, it has bells and whistles on it.” Also in the Daily Telegraph, Stephen Moore, senior fellow at the right-wing Heritage Foundation thinktank and co-author of a book titled “The Trump economic miracle”, attacks the Biden administration’s policies supporting EV sales and a “retarded commitment to ‘net-zero’”.

In other comment from the UK, the Sun has yet another editorial on UK fuel duty, saying that scrapping the 14-year freeze [which has cost some £90bn in lost tax revenue and increased UK emissions by around 7%] would be “among the very worst” ideas for the upcoming budget. In the Times, chief business commentator Alistair Osborne writes under the headline: “Nuclear is a waste of time and money.” He points to a National Audit Office report on cost overruns at the Sellafield nuclear waste site, also covered by the Times.

In a comment for Reuters, Kirsten Snow Spalding, vice president of the Ceres Investor Network, writes: “Investors the world over are calling on governments to use every tool in their toolbox, from fiscal carrots to regulatory sticks, to ensure industries can pivot and prosper in a clean energy future.” She says that “investor momentum on climate issues continues to grow” but that “progress is falling short”. She concludes: “Governments now face a crucial moment to deliver on climate commitments that will define their economic futures. The pressure is on policymakers to respond – not just with words, but with actions that guide economies toward equitable, low carbon resilience and prosperity.” 

In a letter to the Financial Times, meanwhile, Hikmet Hajiyev, foreign affairs advisor to the president of Azerbaijan, responds to a recent editorial in the newspaper describing the COP29 host as “an authoritarian petrostate”. He writes: “When Azerbaijan hosts COP29 next month, it will be the 28th time the climate summit has been held in an oil and gas producer. Every host – bar Switzerland – has been involved in extraction. Every country in the world – bar none – is a fossil fuel consumer.” Separately, the Guardian reports that Azerbaijan is set to significantly expand its gas production this decade, according to a report by NGO Urgewald. The newspaper quotes Urgewald saying: “It is crucial that those who host the [COP29] negotiations are true climate leaders, not those with a vested interest in keeping the world hooked on fossil fuels.” 

Finally, a comment in the Lancet by Elaine Mulcahy and Richard Smith of the UK Health Alliance on Climate Change is titled: “COP29 must move from stalling to action.”

A new study reveals a “gap” between the reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in national climate pledges and “the role that land can realistically play in climate mitigation”. The researchers show that climate pledges collectively require approximately 1bn hectares of land for CDR, with around 40% of this area earmarked for the conversion of existing land uses to forests. Assessing how demand for land is distributed geographically and over time, the researchers say “the results are concerning” – both in terms of the aggregate area of land and the rate and extent of land-use change.

The impact of human-caused climate change on wildfires has contributed to thousands of additional deaths from air pollution since the 1960s, a new study finds. Of the 46,401 (1960s) to 98,748 (2010s) annual wildfire-related deaths from fine particulate matter (PM2.5), 669 (1960s) to 12,566 (2010s) can be attributed to climate change, the researchers say. The most substantial impacts on fire mortality have occurred in South America, Australia and Europe, the study says, “coinciding with decreased relative humidity and in boreal forests with increased air temperature”.

The actions of “radical” climate protest groups increase support for more moderate climate organisations, a new study suggests. The researchers conducted nationally representative surveys before and after a week-long campaign to block London’s M25 motorway in November 2022 by Just Stop Oil. The findings show that a “highly publicised non-violent disruptive protest” can increase identification with – and support for – more moderate climate groups, such as Friends of the Earth, within just two weeks. The findings suggest that “non-violent radical actions may constitute a largely untapped strategic resource for moderate groups within the broader climate movement”, the authors conclude.