New research finds that billions of people could be forced out of their “human climate niche” as the planet warms. The Guardian reports that current climate pledges – which would see global temperatures rise 2.7C above pre-industrial levels – could push 2 billion people out of their “climate niche”. Limiting warming to 1.5C would limit the number of people pushed out of the climate niche by 80%, the newspaper says. The paper notes that the climate niche is defined by average annual temperatures above 29C. It continues: “The analysis is the first of its kind and is able to treat every citizen equally, unlike previous economic assessments of the damage of the climate crisis, which have been skewed towards the rich.” The Times reports that under current emission trajectories, more than a billion people could be forced to migrate. The Press Association adds that “under the worst-case scenarios of 3.6C or even 4.4C global warming, half of the world’s population could be left outside the climate niche, posing an ‘existential risk’”. Separately, the Independent says that “with every 0.1C of warming above present levels, an additional 140 million people will be exposed to hazardous heat conditions”. The South China Morning Post notes that India and Nigeria will see the greatest population exposure to dangerous heat. Forbes quotes study author Tim Lenon: “It is easy to see how uncontrolled temperature increases would lead to extraordinary movements across borders.” BusinessGreen and MailOnline also cover the study.

There is widespread media coverage of a new report from the World Meteorological Organisation, which finds that two million people have died from extreme weather events since 1970. The report analyses 11,778 disasters over 1970-2021, according to BBC News. The outlet says that the number of weather-related disasters has increased five-fold since the 1970s, while the cost of damages has increased by a factor of eight. However, it adds that “better early warning systems and disaster management in developing countries mean fewer people are dying.” The Associated Press reports that extreme weather events have inflicted $4.3tn in damages in total since 1970, with $1.7tn recorded in the US. It adds: “WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas said the cyclonic storm Mocha that swept across Myanmar and Bangladesh this month exemplified how the ‘most vulnerable communities unfortunately bear the brunt of weather, climate and water-related hazards’.” Separately, the Independent notes that more than 90% of the recorded deaths are in developing countries. Al Jazeera and MailOnline also cover the report.

California, Arizona and Nevada have struck a deal with the US government to take 13% less water from the Colorado river, the Guardian reports. According to the paper, water districts, Native American tribes and farm operators will implement the cut in water use. The New York Times says: “Drought, population growth and climate change have dropped the river’s flows by one-third in recent years compared with historical averages, threatening to provoke a water and power catastrophe across the West.” The Washington Post says the deal is intended to protect the country’s largest reservoirs – Lake Powell and Lake Mead – from “dropping to critical levels” over the next three years. New Scientist says the deal is expected to conserve 3m acre-feet (3.7bn cubic metres) of water by the end of 2026. “The agreement, billed by the states as a ‘historic success,’ followed a year of arduous negotiations that featured two blown deadlines,” Reuters reports. The newswire adds that the Biden administration has allocated $1.2bn in grants under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 to compensate local water districts, cities and Native American tribes for cutting back. It continues: “Now the seven states must go back to work on a longer-term deal starting in 2027, most likely for 20 years, that must be reached without being able to count on rainy years or a flood of federal dollars, and with effects of climate change looming.” The New York Times reports that the river currently supplies around 40 million Americans, who consume 1.9tn gallons of water every year. The paper shows that 79% of this water goes into agriculture. Le Monde, Axios and the Associated Press also cover the news. Meanwhile, Inside Climate News reports that Colorado energy companies have “dramatically increased their reliance on high-quality water for fracking even though they produced enough wastewater to supply the operations”.

Chinese state media CCTV reports that, under normal weather conditions in 2023, the peak electricity load nationwide during the summer will be approximately 1,370 gigawatts (GW). This would represent an increase of 80GW compared to 2022, according to the National Energy Administration and the China Electricity Council. The state newswire adds that if there is an extended period of widespread extreme hot weather, the peak electricity load could increase by nearly 100GW compared to 2022. In order to cope with the growing trend in electricity consumption, especially during the summer peak, China is “intensively deploying on various fronts actively”, the article highlights.

Meanwhile, Business Insider carries an article, titled: “Asia is in the middle of a record heatwave and Russia is reaping the financial rewards of it.” Citing data provider Kpler, it says that India and China accounted for more than two-thirds of Russian coal exports to Asia in April. The current heatwave in China has contributed to the increased import of Russian coal and led to a rise in power demand for electricity and air conditioning, the outlet adds. Chinese financial and economic news outlet National Business Daily reports that the central government’s National Development and Reform Commission has released the draft of a document called “measures for demand-side management of electricity”. The document proposes “gradually incorporating demand-side resources”, such as “virtual” power plants, into “the supply and demand balance of the electricity market”, meaning a market-driven electricity market, the newspaper adds. Another article by National Business Daily carries the views of Shi Yubo, the chairman of the China Energy Research Society, an academic association. He says that achieving peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality in cities still face “severe” challenges.

Separately, China Daily writes that China’s “raw coal” production had a “stable expansion” in April. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the country produced 380m metric tonnes of raw coal in April, marking a 4.5% increase compared to the same period last year, the state-run newspaper notes. Bloomberg says that Hegang, a coal town in northeastern China, is “feeling a fiscal clampdown”. The newspaper says this is an indication of the challenging economic journey that lies ahead for the rest of the country. Hegang has experienced a gradual decline in revenue over the years due to a shrinking coal industry and a decrease in the city’s population, it adds.

Elsewhere, Guangming Daily, a newspaper affiliated with the Chinese communist party, has published an article by Huang Runqiu, the minister of ecology and environment. He writes that, as the chair of the 15th UN Convention on Biological Diversity (COP15), China was leading and promoting the achievement of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Joint actions are needed to address global challenges such as climate change, environmental pollution, desertification, food security and ecological security, he writes. Finally, the state news agency Xinhua carries an interview with David Cooper, a UN biodiversity official, emphasising that “united global efforts are needed to implement the Kunming-Montreal Framework”. 

Fossil fuel companies register a drop in value after litigation or unfavourable judgments, according to a Guardian “exclusive”. The newspaper reports on a study by LSE’s Grantham Research Institute that will be published later today, which analyses 108 climate crisis lawsuits around the world over 2005-21 against 98 companies listed in the US and Europe. The research finds that filing a new case or a court decision against a company reduces its expected value by an average of 0.41%, according to the paper. It continues: “The stock market responded most strongly in the days after cases against carbon majors, which include the world’s largest energy, utility and materials firms, cutting the relative value of those companies by an average of 0.57% after a case was filed and by 1.5% after an unfavourable judgement. Although modest, the researchers conclude that the drop in the value of big polluters is statistically significant and therefore down to the legal challenges.”

“The European Parliament has delayed a planned vote to approve new EU renewable energy targets, after France and other countries lodged last-minute opposition to the law last week”, according to an email seen by Reuters. The newswire reports that the vote, which was due to take place on Tuesday, has been delayed until June. It continues: “The European Union is attempting to finalise a key pillar of its climate agenda – a law containing a binding goal for the EU to get 42.5% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030… The EU Parliament and EU countries’ approval of the law was supposed to be a formality, after negotiators from both sides agreed what was supposed to be a final deal earlier this year. But France was unhappy with the final result. Paris wants more recognition in the law of low-carbon nuclear energy.” Elsewhere, Reuters reports that eight countries including France and Italy are “pushing to weaken new EU emissions limits for cars, saying they are overly ambitious and unrealistic for automakers to hit”. Meanwhile, Reuters reports that “Brussels is attempting to salvage two proposed environmental laws, the future of which is in doubt after the biggest lawmaker group in the European Parliament called for them to be rejected”.

In other European news, the Times reports that a drought in Spain has pushed the price of olive oil to a record high. Meanwhile, scientists say that Italy’s deadly floods are another example of climate-driven extremes, according to Euronews. In UK news, the Times reports that “Britain’s power network could be safely restarted using only renewables in the unlikely event of a catastrophic blackout in the future”. Separately, the Times reports that the UK could meet its net-zero goals by halving private jet flights. “The carbon footprint of private jets in the UK is on a par with 200,000 people taking a return flight to Hong Kong,” according to the paper. 

For the Guardian, journalist and author Helena Echlin writes about her experience becoming a member of the ‘Red Rebel Brigade’, a performance art troupe originally devised for the Extinction Rebellion protests held in the spring of 2019. “We are meant to aim for the faraway stare of ‘a watcher through the ages’,” Echlin writes, “but I’m afraid I look more like someone stuck in a slow queue at Sainsbury’s…I’ve written letters to politicians, carried placards and had endless conversations. At best, I just put people’s backs up. So I’ve decided to shut up and wrap myself in a red sheet instead.” Echlin recounts the “big emotions” the group inspires in people; from cursing to crying, to shouting about “climate conspiracy”. She concludes: “I hope the emotion that people tap into will drive them to act…Talking to people about the climate crisis made me feel hopeless. Striking a mute pose of despair? Remarkably uplifting.”

Climate change has already pushed 9% of humanity – more than 60 million people – out of the “human climate niche”, according to new research. Areas with average annual temperatures above 29C fall outside of the human climate niche, the authors say. They find that under current warming policies, which will see warming of 2.7C above preindustrial temperatures, around one-third of people could be pushed outside this niche. However, reducing warming from 2.7C to 1.5C would drive a 5-fold decrease in the number of people exposed to unprecedented heat. “The lifetime emissions of ~3.5 global average citizens today (or ~1.2 average US citizens) expose one future person to unprecedented heat by end-of-century,” the paper adds.