New analysis has found that the record-hot temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico caused by human-caused global warming made Hurricane Helene “200 to 500 times more likely”, reports the Guardian. The analysis found that climate change increased the amount of rainfall from Helene by 10%, as well as its winds by about 13mph, making them “11% more intense”, it continues. (A new article by Carbon Brief explains how hotter oceans can fuel more intense Atlantic hurricanes). Helene was one of the deadliest storms in US history, “crashing ashore” with 140mph winds and killing at least 220 people across six states, the article states. The Independent notes that storms such as Helene, which were once expected to occur every 130 years, are now likely every 53 years, about 2.5 times more frequently, according to the analysis. The Associated Press quotes Ben Clarke, a study co-author and a climate researcher at Imperial College London, who says: “Hurricane Helene and the storms that were happening in the region anyway have all been amplified by the fact that the air is warmer and can hold more moisture, which meant that the rainfall totals – which, even without climate change, would have been incredibly high given the circumstances – were even higher.” The attribution study from the World Weather Attribution service found that the rainfall during Helene was a “once-in-115-year event” before, but is now a “once-in-70-year event” due to climate change, reports Yale Climate Connections. The study comes as 5.5 million people have been ordered to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Milton making landfall in Florida, which it did overnight (see below), even as parts of the state are still cleaning up after Helene, notes the New York Times. 

A separate analysis in the Guardian looks at how US emergency crews are struggling, as climate change fuels “unprecedented” competing disasters. The “climate crisis has turned up the dial and created more opportunities for catastrophes to overlap, ultimately adding strain on relief resources, emergency response, and those who have been impacted by the dangerous and destructive events”, the article says.

Hurricane Milton has “slammed” into Florida’s west coast near Tampa, reports Bloomberg, with “tree-snapping winds and heavy rain, pushing a wall of water onshore and putting lives at risk in the densely populated region”. The hurricane came ashore near Siesta Key as a Category 3 storm with winds of 100 miles (160 kilometres) per hour, according to the US National Hurricane Center, it continues. A flash-flood emergency is in effect in Tampa Bay as the storm moves inland towards Florida’s east coast, the article states. Milton made landfall during the night, with St Petersburg recording more than 16 inches (41cm) of rain, reports the Associated Press. Milton has knocked out power across a large section of the state, leaving more than 2.8m homes and businesses without power, it adds. A “severe” solar storm could further stress power grids today and tomorrow, even as states struggle to deal with the back-to-back hurricanes, reports another Associated Press article. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a warning that the solar storm could temporarily disrupt power and radio signals, it adds. 

In related news, nearly a quarter of Florida’s petrol stations were out of fuel as of Wednesday afternoon, as residents rushed to evacuate ahead of Milton making landfall, reports Reuters. More than a million people in coastal areas were under evacuation order “clogging highways and causing fuel shortages”, it adds. 

India’s finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has called the EU’s planned carbon tax on imports an arbitrary “trade barrier”, reports the Financial Times, stating that it will “hurt” the world’s fastest-growing large economy and other industrialising nations. Sitharaman argues that the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which will see tariffs levied on imports from 2026, will impede developing countries’ transition away from fossil fuels by making the change harder to fund, the article continues. Speaking at the Financial Times’ Energy Transition Summit India in New Delhi, she said: “They are unilateral and are not helpful. Absolutely, it is a trade barrier. You are being stifled by steps which are not going to facilitate the green transition.” The challenges created by CBAM are likely to pose unforeseeable risks to countries like India, she added, that are working towards net-zero commitments, reports the Hindu. Sitharaman noted that the nation’s concerns will be voiced as part of discussion on India’s Free Trade Agreement with the EU, the article adds. 

A plan by the UK government to use biomass imported from countries including North Korea and Afghanistan has been called “bonkers”, reports the Guardian, with critics saying it undermines the credibility of the country’s climate strategy. A strategy document published last year and seemingly adopted by the current Labour government, says it wants biomass to play a “significant role” in decarbonising the economy to 2050, it continues. However, a bioenergy resource model, published late this summer, found that only a large expansion of the import of energy crops and wood from a “surprising list of nations” would meet this part of the UK’s net-zero plan, the article states. Currently, the UK imports about a third of its biomass, with the bulk coming from North America and the EU, but there is not enough wood in those regions to support the expansion laid out in the strategy document, leading to a need to import more from an “improbable” list of countries, it explains. 

In other UK news, a frontpage story in the Yorkshire Post reports that the wet weather that has been “drenching Yorkshire” will have a “dire impact” on farmers and push up food prices. More flood alerts have now been issued across England by the Met Office for the coming days, reports the Press Association. Elsewhere, pumped hydro projects will be able to bid for government support via a “cap-and-floor” mechanism, reports the Times. The projects, which use water to store and release power when needed, help to balance volatility on the electricity grid, it notes.

China is expected to “account for almost 60% of all renewable energy capacity installed worldwide” over the next six years and “renewable energy projects will roll out at three times the pace of the previous six years, led by the clean energy programmes of China and India”, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) covered by the Guardian. The newspaper adds that, by the end of this decade, China “will have over half of the world’s renewables”. It quotes the executive director of the IEA, Fatih Birol, saying that, “if I could sum this [trend] up in two words they would be: China, solar”. Newsweek also covers the report, saying that, by 2030, “solar and wind power will…roughly equal the total combined power capacity of the world’s major economies today”. 

Meanwhile, the Communist party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily reports that, according to data by the China Electricity Council (CEC), the total “green electricity trading volume” across China from January to August this year reached 177.5 terawatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 223%. The newspaper adds that “green electricity certificate (GEC)” trading has “exceeded 200m, up nearly fivefold from a year earlier”. China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) says that it will support the development of new energy projects through efforts including “emphasising the green value of new energy to meet the demand for green product exports”, industry news outlet BJX News reports. State-run newspaper China Daily reports that China’s “rapid expansion of new infrastructure is driving significant increases in power demand”. Dianlian Xinmei, a Chinese industry news outlet, publishes an “in-depth” analysis on how to improve the carbon market trading system in China. 

Elsewhere, state news agency Xinhua reports that China and the EU will continue to “hold consultations regarding the EU’s anti-subsidy investigation” into Chinese electric vehicles. Finally, Gina Raimondo, the US Secretary of Commerce, says that the Biden administration’s “restrictions on hi-tech trade with China” are “not negotiable”, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports, adding that the US “has sought to tackle increasing concerns” in the country about China’s “manufacturing dominance in key industries”, such as EVs.

Wildlife populations have fallen by a “catastrophic” rate of 73% on average over the past 50 years, reports the Washington Post. According to the latest annual “Living Planet” report by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), the world’s freshwater populations globally fell by an average of 85%, while terrestrial populations by 69% and marine populations by 56% between 1970 and 2020. WWF together with the Zoological Society of London track 5,495 species of amphibians, birds, fish, mammals and reptiles via the report and its database shows the “extent to which human activity is decimating them”, the article notes. BBC News notes that the loss of wild spaces is “putting many ecosystems on the brink”, with many habitats “on the edge of very dangerous tipping points”, according to WWF-UK head Tanya Steele. The latest report offers snapshots of human-induced wildlife loss, including that 60% of the world’s Amazon pink river dolphins have been “wiped out”, but also some “hopeful signs of conservation success”, such as the population of mountain gorillas in mountain gorillas in the Virunga Mountains of East Africa increasing by 3%, the article adds. It also says the report “warns nature loss and climate change are fast pushing the world towards irreversible tipping points, including the potential ‘collapse’ of the Amazon rainforest, whereby it can no longer lock away planet-warming carbon and mitigate the impacts of climate change”.

Storms such as Hurricane Milton raise “uncomfortable questions” about the future of storm-prone places like Florida, argued an editorial in the Economist. Global warming is making storms more destructive, the article notes, pointing to the “biblical” amount of water that fell as rain during Hurricane Helene. Proper insurance coverage, combined with a “firm adherence to the relevant hurricane-aware building code”, could help protect Floridians in the future, but this will cost a lot, it continues. If these costs are not “borne by a mixture of  premiums, taxes and mandatory renovations, they will be passed to the federal government or not paid and the situation will further deteriorate”, it notes. “It would be fairer if those who enjoy the delights of living in Florida shoulder the bulk of the costs, or move. Hard choices like this will proliferate as the world keeps warming,” concludes the editorial. 

Relatedly, a guest essay in the New York Times by Porter Fox, author of “Category Five: Superstorms and the Warming Oceans That Feed Them”, argues that Hurricane Milton is “terrifying – and it is just the start”. In other comment, a Lex comment piece in the Financial Times argues that Rio Tinto “isn’t bagging a bargain with [its] lithium deal” after the mining giant announced it was acquiring Arcadium Lithium. (The Times covers the deal.) In the Daily Telegraph, assistant editor Jeremy Warner, says “BP’s green stupidity beggared belief – no wonder it’s reversed course”. A separate comment piece in the Daily Telegraph by Shanker Singham, who represents the right-leaning lobby group known as the Institute of Economic Affairs, argues that “Britain shouldn’t copy the EU’s carbon plans”. 

The presence of permafrost almost halves riverbank erosion rates in an Arctic river, according to a new study. Riverbank erosion can release deeply stored carbon and “jeopardise” Arctic infrastructure and communities, the researchers write. Using high-frequency satellite observations, they find that permafrost – ground that has been frozen for at least two years – reduces erosion rates by 47% on the Koyukuk river in central Alaska. Using modelling, they also find that “full permafrost thaw may lead to a 30-100% increase in the migration rates of Arctic rivers”.