Greenhouse gas emissions have reached an all-time high, as the world rapidly runs out of “carbon budget” threatening “unprecedented” levels of global heating, reports the Guardian. Only 250bn tonnes of CO2 can now be emitted to avoid the accumulation that would raise temperatures by 1.5C, according to a new study, it continues. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that, from early 2020, only 500bn more tonnes of CO2 could be burnt to keep warming within 1.5C. However, due to three further years of high emissions and new scientific understanding on how particles of air pollution affect the climate, this has been halved, reports the Washington Post. From 2013 to 2022, average annual emissions hit an all-time high of 54bn tonnes of CO2 or equivalent – about 1,700 tonnes every second – leading to an unprecedented rate of more than 0.2C of human-induced warming per decade, reports NDTV. Carbon Brief published a detailed guest post from two of the study’s authors yesterday. The analysis, which has been published to coincide with UN climate negotiations in Bonn, Germany this week is a “timely wake-up call”, notes the Irish Times.

Relatedly, another new study, released to coincide with the Bonn climate talks, finds that around 90% of nations’ net-zero plans are unlikely to be achieved, which could result in Earth warming by 2.4C, reports the Times. While more than 90% of the global economy is covered by net-zero plans, the only countries seen as having “high confidence” of meeting them are developed ones, including the UK, the EU and New Zealand, the article continues. Carbon Brief has also published a detailed guest post from the authors of this study, too.

Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, the president of the COP28 climate summit due to be held in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in December, has said “the phasedown of fossil fuels is inevitable”, Reuters reports. It adds that this was “stronger remarks than previous comments where [Al Jaber] called for the scaling down of fossil fuel emissions rather than the fuels themselves”. The newswire notes that Al Jaber also runs the UAE state oil giant and “has been criticised by climate activists for what they saw as a soft stance on fossil fuel, calling for the tackling of their emissions rather than cutting their use”. It quotes him saying at a side event at climate talks in Bonn: “The phasedown of fossil fuels is inevitable. The speed at which this happens depends on how quickly we can phase up zero carbon alternatives, while ensuring energy security, accessibility and affordability.” It adds: “Alden Meyer, senior associate at climate thinktank E3G, said the acknowledgement of the need to phase down fossil fuels was a useful first step; but al-Jaber needed to recognise the pace at which that needs to happen.”

Meanwhile, the Guardian reports: “An army of fake social media accounts on Twitter and the blogging site Medium have been promoting and defending the controversial hosting of a UN climate summit by the United Arab Emirates.” It continues: “Posts from fake accounts claimed: ‘The UAE’s commitment to being the perfect host for COP28 is a testament to its leadership in tackling climate change,’ and that Al Jaber is ‘the ally the climate movement needs’. Others retweeted or reposted UAE government tweets or sought to rebut criticism. One account had an AI-generated profile picture, but text labelling the image as fake had not been cropped out.”

US toxic air pollution hit its worst level in recorded history on Wednesday due to wildfire smoke, reports the Guardian. Researchers at Stanford calculated that the average American was exposed to 27.5 micrograms per cubic metre of small particulate matter, carried down into the US from Canadian wildfires, it continues. Axios reports that 61.8 million people in some of America’s most populated cities have been exposed to more than 50 micrograms per cubic metre of air. On Thursday, the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments and District Department of Energy and Environment issued a “code purple” air quality alert, indicating very unhealthy air conditions for everyone, as outdoor activities “from professional sports to trash collection” were cancelled, reports the Washington Post. In New York, the air quality index reached more than 400 in some parts of the city by Wednesday afternoon, the worst level globally and roughly 58 times the World Health Organization’s guidelines, reports the Independent. The city’s health commissioner Ashwin Vasan told reporters on Wednesday that the air quality was at its worst since the 1960s, with conditions expected to last for several days, the article adds. 

In Canada, wildfire crews have continued to battle hundreds of blazes across the country, in what a Quebec minister described as an “unprecedented” situation, reports the Guardian. More than half of the 414 fires across the country are out of control, according to the emergency preparedness minister Bill Blair, with the hottest and driest months of the year still to come, continues the article. International aid is now being sent to Canada, including firefighters from the US, South African, Australia, New Zealand, France, Portugal and Spain, reports Reuters, to help stop the fires which have already burned around 4.3m hectares (10.6m acres), roughly 15 times the annual average over the past decade. The smoke from Canada’s wildfires was expected to shift over Norway from Thursday, although not cause trouble for people living there, report the New York Times. 

Republican senators in the US have pushed back on the impact of climate change on the forest fires, reports the Huffington Post. “We’ve had fires for all of our life, come on,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) told the publication, “We’re all for [the] environment, but this is just another situation where you’ve gotta do your work in forests. I mean, you just can’t let it grow up. It’s unfortunate that this is happening. It too shall pass.” New York Republican Marc Molinaro, meanwhile, says it is too soon to talk about the role of climate change within the wildfires, reports the New Republic. Several senators from western states noted that the US is “waking up” to wildfire problems, during a hearing on the federal wildfire response reports the Hill. Scientists have said that climate change is making weather conditions such as heat and drought, which lead to wildfires, more likely, reports BBC News. 

After three years of the La Nina climate pattern, El Nino has officially returned and is expected to yield extreme weather “from tropical cyclones spinning toward vulnerable Pacific islands to heavy rainfall in South America to drought in Australia and in some parts of Asia”, reports Reuters. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center confirmed on Thursday the return of this hotter weather pattern, which is born out of unusually warm waters in the Pacific, the article continues. It has formed a month or two earlier than most El Ninos, which “give it room to grow”, according to climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux, head of NOAA’s El Nino/La Nina forecast office, with a 56% chance it will be considered strong and a 25% change it will reach supersized levels, reports the Associated Press. According to Dr Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at payment company Stripe and climate science contributor at Carbon Brief, El Nino’s development means there is around a 30-50% chance that 2023 will set a new record for the warmest year in instrument records – which date back to 1850 – reports Axios. Scientists have warned that El Nino may help to push the world past its 1.5C warming target, reports BBC News, and push 2024 past the 2016 record as world’s hottest year.

UK prime minister Rishi Sunak and US president Joe Biden have “unveiled the Atlantic Declaration”, BBC News reports, in a move that it says could see “UK firms…gain[ing] access to US green funding”. The broadcaster explains: “UK electric car firms may get access to US green tax credits and subsidies.” It continues: “The Atlantic Declaration includes plans to mitigate some of the impact of the US flagship Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on the UK economy, with proposals to remove barriers which affected trade in electric vehicle batteries.” However, it notes that plans for a US-UK free trade agreement – “a key pledge in the Conservative Party’s 2019 general election manifesto” – were “abandoned months ago”. The Financial Times reports: “The declaration aims to increase US-UK trade in areas such as defence, nuclear materials and the critical minerals used in electric-car batteries, as Biden tries to build ‘economic security’ among western allies.” It says the US-UK deal would be similar to ones being negotiated with Japan, Australia and the EU. The paper adds: “British manufacturers of electric cars using UK-made batteries – or products sourced from countries such as Japan with whom the US has a deal on critical minerals – will qualify for tax credits of $3,750 per vehicle under Biden’s IRA, his flagship legislation promoting green technology.” Reuters reports: “Sunak and Biden also agreed to launch a new civil nuclear partnership as part of their clean energy cooperation, which will include setting up new infrastructure over the long term and cutting reliance on Russian fuel.” The newswire notes that the declaration only marks the start of talks over UK access to US electric vehicle subsidies: “The two nations will also begin negotiations on a critical minerals agreement, which would allow some UK firms to access tax credits available under the US IRA.” The Guardian reports: “In one detail that could alarm Conservative free marketers, it brings the UK into the orbit of Biden’s IRA, which lays out vast subsidies for green infrastructure, previously condemned by some UK ministers as market-skewing. One element of the declaration relating to minerals needed in battery technology will allow UK electric car manufacturers to benefit from some of the IRA subsidies regime.” Sky News notes that the declaration “includes a narrow trade pact covering critical minerals needed for electric car batteries”, but is currently only an “in-principle agreement for a deal on those minerals”.

The UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt is “preparing to soften the government’s windfall tax on oil and gas companies to try to boost investment from operators in the North Sea”, the Times reports. The paper continues: “The chancellor looks ready to amend the tax as soon as today, with several options under consideration in the Treasury to improve energy security. This could include bringing in a ‘floor’ to the tax, so it no longer applies if oil and gas prices drop below a specified level.” The Financial Times says the windfall tax “is set to be scaled back”, citing “three people briefed on the government’s plans”. It continues: “The move comes after months of lobbying from the sector and as Norway’s state oil company, Equinor, considers whether to go ahead with its major new North Sea project, Rosebank. Where the floor for the windfall tax could be set is not yet clear. One industry source suggested the sector would like to see it set at about 120% of the long-term average price, but said there was little consensus in the industry. Softening the windfall tax is likely to be controversial among campaigners on the cost of living as consumers continue to face high energy bills.” The outlet adds: “One industry figure said he expected that the Conservative party would feel that the backlash against Labour’s plans [to end new oil and gas licences in the North Sea] had ‘opened up the political space’ to revisit the windfall tax, allowing the Tories to position themselves as strong supporters of the sector.” Reuters reports: “Under the new changes, the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) will not be applied if oil or gas prices fall below their 20-year average over a period of several months, according to industry sources briefed on the details. The Treasury is set to announce the changes, which will be subject to consultations, on Friday morning.” BBC News says the government has this morning confirmed the plans: “In a statement, the Treasury said the windfall tax would remain until March 2028, but that the tax rate would fall if the average oil and gas prices fall to, or below, a set level for two consecutive three-month periods. The level has been set at $71.40 per barrel for oil and £0.54 per therm for gas.” The Daily Telegraph also has the story. Meanwhile, the Guardian reports: “The North Sea oil and gas industry is in decline, a shadow business minister has said as she defended plans to block new drilling licences from 2050, a move criticised by trade unions. Seema Malhotra said the proposal was an important part of the transition to net-zero, by phasing out new fields from which to extract fossil fuels and boosting Britain’s ‘sovereign capability’ for clean and green energy.”

Turbulence on planes has seen a “massive increase” due to climate change, according to new research, reports the Times. A team from the University of Reading and the Met Office found that severe turbulence over the North Atlantic increased by 55%, jumping from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020, while light turbulence has increased by 17% and moderate turbulence by 37% over the period, the article continues. This is due to the jet stream, which has become more erratic and prone to “sudden violent clashes of winds” because of climate change, reports the Daily Telegraph. The US and north Atlantic experienced the largest increases in turbulence, according to the authors of the study, although other busy flight routes over Europe, the Middle East and the south Atlantic also recorded significant increases in turbulence, reports the Guardian. Turbulence costs the airline industry $150-500m annually in the US alone and every additional minute spent travelling through turbulence increases wear and tear on the aircraft, as well as risking injuries to flight attendants according to PhD researcher Mark Prosser, the Independent reports. (See a 2017 Carbon Brief guest post for more details on how climate change is affecting turbulence.)

Recent announcements by Chinese solar companies that they will increase new solar power capacity are expected to “solidify China’s dominant position in global solar energy production and support the country’s transition towards green energy”, writes state media outlet China Daily, citing industry experts. LONGi Green Energy Technology, a Chinese photovoltaics company, says that it plans to invest around 12.5bn yuan ($1.8bn) in a project “with an annual production capacity of 20GW monocrystalline silicon rods, 24GW monocrystalline cells and supporting facilities,” the state-run newspaper notes. 

Meanwhile, He Kebin, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the dean of the Institute of Carbon Neutrality at Tsinghua University, says that carbon neutrality is “not just about signing and fulfilling agreements”, but, more importantly, it is about “a new round of the industrial competition” globally, reports state newswire Xinhua. Yigang, governor of China’s central bank People’s Bank of China (PBoC), says that “achieving [China’s] ‘dual carbon’ target requires a carrot and a stick. A significant increase in the cost of carbon emissions can be seen as the big stick, a moderate increase is a medium or small stick, and the support tools set up by the PBoC are the carrot of the incentive mechanism,” reports Jiemian. China News Service, another state newswire, reports that a Chinese official says that north China’s Shanxi province is shaping itself up to be a “global experimental field” for the energy revolution. The province is striving to extend the industrial value chain of coal and promote “clean and low-carbon development”, while increasing new energy sources and renewable energy, the article adds. 

Separately, China Project, a New York-based website, publishes an article saying that “livestock, crops, and power grids are all expected to be affected” by heatwaves this summer. Reuters writes that a heatwave currently affecting China is increasing the need for electricity to power cooling systems. However, “tepid” industrial demand and “record high” coal inventories are keeping prices at their lowest point in two years, with imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) being limited. 

Elsewhere, the state news agency CGTN reports that California’s governor has sought to accelerate the shift towards clean energy by forming a partnership with China. Finally, China Daily carries a comment piece by Michael Edesess, an adjunct associate professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He writes that China leads in many areas in fighting against climate change, including generating electricity with “zero-carbon-emitting power”. He cites a Carbon Brief article showing that, “from 1990-2015, China planted the largest amount of new forest in any country”.

Politico quotes German economy minister and vice-chancellor Robert Habeck warning at a Berlin conference that Germany’s climate goals are not being met: “No bullshit: we are not on track, it has to be said quite clearly.” Amid the German Green party’s falling electoral ratings from 23% to 14% – and Habeck’s “personal collapse in popularity” due to the proposing domestic heating law and a “cronyism affair” – he emphasised the need to ensure popular support for the climate policies from society, notes the outlet. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) explains that the heating law, which has already been passed by the German cabinet, stipulates that, from the beginning of 2024, every newly installed heating system should be operated with at least 65% “eco-energy”. However, Free Democrats (FDP), which are also part of the ruling coalition, want changes to the law, adds the article. In addition, notes FAZ, Habeck again spoke in favour of state-subsidised industrial electricity.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that Germany’s economy and climate ministry has set out a new solar strategy to improve land availability for developers, speed up permitting and grid connections, and support skills and supply chain development to achieve the government’s solar target of 215GW by 2030, compared with 63GW in 2022. The article notes that, by 2030, Germany aims to generate 80% of its power from renewables. Additionally, Bloomberg reports that German chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni agreed “to push ahead” with work on a “natural” gas and hydrogen pipeline corridor connecting North Africa with Italy, Austria and Germany. 

Finally, Manager Magazin reports that, according to a new study, which breaks down the top 30 industrial plants in Germany by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, iron and steel production is found to be “the biggest source” of industrial GHG emissions in Germany. 

In the i newspaper, chief political commentator Paul Waugh reflects on the “tabloid pressure” that opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer is “likely to face at any general election”. He writes: “[W]hile such controversies [as ‘beergate’] are seen as passing squalls, it’s criticism of Labour’s economic plan that is viewed much more seriously in the office of the leader of the opposition.” Waugh continues: “This newspaper’s look at the party’s spending promises last week, featuring a warning from the Institute for Fiscal Studies about the possible effects of its £28bn-a-year green investment plan on interest rates and inflation, certainly caused a stir. And when the Daily Mail this week highlighted a ‘Treasury analysis’ suggesting Labour environmental policies could add £1,000 to mortgage costs, shadow treasury secretary Pat McFadden felt compelled to intervene.” He adds: “I understand that, despite some heavy internal briefing against the £28bn plan, it remains a key plank of Labour policy. But that doesn’t mean the pledge won’t be finessed or reframed ahead of the next election…One Starmer ally admits that a better presentational job needs to be done on the pledge. “We need to be clear that this money is not spending on public services, it is an investment in economic growth that pays for that spending in the future.’” Waugh notes: “[D]espite claims that sources close to Starmer are unhappy with the Biden-style plan, I’m told that he, [shadow chancellor Rachel] Reeves and [shadow climate secretary Ed] Miliband are in lockstep on the policy. ‘It is central to our plans,’ one senior figure tells me. The Labour leader will underline his commitment when he launches his next ‘mission’ for his government later this month, on how to decarbonise the UK by 2030.”

But, in breaking news this morning, Reeves has just appeared on BBC Radio 4’s flagship Today programme to state that “we [Labour[ will get to the £28bn…it will be in the second half of the first parliament.” BBC News describes this as Labour “changing its green energy plan”. The Daily Telegraph, incorrectly, says Reeves “scraps Labour’s flagship green investment pledge”. Writing in the Times, Reeves asserts that she “won’t abandon Labour’s ambitions for industry – nor fiscal responsibility”.  She adds: “Our green prosperity plan is vital to achieving our mission. We will invest in good jobs in the industries of the future, tacking crippling energy bills and securing our economy. I first announced this plan over 18 months ago. Since then, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the exposure of the vulnerability of our energy system, has proven how necessary it is,” she says. Reeves highlights the need to build supply chains, upskill the workforce and ensure taxpayers get value for money, adding “the right way to deliver our green prosperity plan is to ramp up investment”.

Meanwhile, the Sun, carries an eighth consecutive editorial criticising Labour’s climate plans states: “The party is a contender for power. It cannot continue to be bankrolled and advised by a man who pays for, and now joins, Just Stop Oil’s illegal roadblocks…Starmer didn’t think up his deranged plan to ban vital new supplies of North Sea oil and gas. It is the sole demand of Just Stop Oil.” (As Carbon Brief’s new factcheck notes, Starmer first discussed the idea of ending new licences for the North Sea in 2021, following a report from the International Energy Agency that found there was no room for new oil and gas expansion anywhere in the world if the global energy system is to reach net-zero by 2050, in order to keep warming below 1.5C. Just Stop Oil was not founded until 2022.)

Amid the orange skies of New York, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman writes: “This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang — that is, a sudden, universal catastrophe — but with a series of smaller, more local catastrophes that keep getting bigger and more widespread.” It has long been clear that the impacts of climate change will build over time, he continues, with “formerly freakish disasters” such as the wildfires and resultant pollution becoming bigger and more frequent. In the future, the world will face ever-bigger climate related disasters, and “this future has already begun” Krugman finishes. Adapting to the “net normal” is key, writes columnist Eugene Robinson in the Washington Post: “We have to take measures to cope with that fact. And our goal – our mission – must be to head off far worse punishments that make our children and grandchildren look back on weeks like this one as the good old days.” He urges that we need to get serious about mitigating the consequences of human-induced climate change, arguing that “we are, as a species, a bunch of idiots unless we make switching from fossil fuels to clean-energy sources our top global priority”.

A new study finds “no evidence” that the projected northward movement of boreal forest habitat – which is often thought may offset the loss of habitat to the south – is occurring. Researchers use remote-sensing data spanning 2000-19 to quantify changes in tree cover across northern North America.  They find that tree cover declined over that period around the southern boundary of the habitat, and while it “increased markedly” in the “core” of the boreal biome, it did not expand to the north. They conclude that “these contrasting trends are structural indicators for a possible onset of a biome contraction which may lead to long-term carbon declines”.