A meeting of the G7 countries this weekend has ended without tougher deadlines for phasing out fossil fuels, the Financial Times reports. In their final communique released after the meeting, the leaders of the G7 said they were committed to achieving a “fully or predominantly” decarbonised power sector by 2035. They are also committed to “accelerating” the phaseout of unabated coal power, but did not set a deadline for the latter, the FT says. Citing Russia’s war in Ukraine, the G7 highlighted the “important role that increased deliveries of [liquefied “natural” gas] can play” and said that “publicly supported investment in the gas sector can be appropriate as a temporary response” to the crisis. It comes after Germany lobbied for the continued use of gas and Japan lobbied for no further tougher deadlines for phasing out coal, according to the newspaper. An open letter sent to the G7 ahead of the meeting by a group of countries including Chile, the Netherlands and New Zealand had called on the G7 to lead global efforts to phase out fossil fuels, the FT adds. The New York Times notes that the communique also includes “language sought by Japan that blesses continued investment in certain types of coal-fired power plants that the Japanese government is helping to finance”. Reuters reports that German officials defended their role in including supportive language for gas expansion in the final communique. “We also need some new gas power stations, but they should be built in a way that they can run on green hydrogen later on as well. So it is an investment in the clean future as well,” a German government official tells the newswire. [No further fossil fuel expansion globally is in line with what is needed to limit global warming to 1.5C, research shows.]

There is a “66% chance” of global temperatures breaching 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures within the next five years, the Daily Telegraph reports, citing the World Meteorological Association (WMO). Reuters notes: “This does not mean the world would cross the long-term warming threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. But a year of warming at 1.5C could offer a glimpse of what crossing that longer term threshold, based on the 30-year global average, would be like.” BBC News says the chances of temporarily breaching 1.5C are going up due to rising emissions and a likely El Niño weather pattern later this year. The Financial Times quotes the WMO saying the likelihood of a temporary breach within the next five years has been “increasing with time”, with the current 66% chance up from 48% a year ago and “close to zero” in 2015. The Guardian, the Independent and the i newspaper all have the story. A cartoon in the Guardian reflects on the news.

Blistering heat affecting one-third of the global population across a dozen countries in Asia last month was made 30 times more likely by climate change, according to research covered by the Independent and other publications. A quick-fire analysis by the World Weather Attribution initiative, which focused on record heat and humidity in India, Bangladesh, Thailand and Laos, found that such events could occur, on average, once in every two years if global warming reaches 2C above pre-industrial levels, the Independent reports. The analysis also finds that the event was made around 2C hotter by the 1.2C of global warming that the world has already experienced, Reuters reports. “The heatwaves were not natural… Unless we take drastic measures to reduce carbon emissions, heatwave events like this will continue to become more common,” Chaya Vaddhanaphuti, a member of the WWA team and a geography lecturer at Thailand’s Chiang Mai University, told a press briefing, according to Radio Free Asia. The publication adds: “Temperatures reached 45.4C in Thailand’s western Tak province, the highest ever reported anywhere in the country, while Xayaburi province in Laos hit 42.9C, an all-time national high that was broken a few weeks later in May in Luang Prabang province. In Bangladesh, Dhaka observed the highest maximum temperature recorded in five decades at 40.6C, while several northern and eastern Indian cities recorded temperatures above 44C.”

The world’s largest fossil fuel companies owe at least $209bn in annual “climate reparations” for damages caused to people by their business activities, according to new research covered by the Guardian. The research, published in the journal One Earth, is the first to try to estimate the economic burden caused by fossil fuel extraction from the 21 most polluting companies, the Guardian says. It reports: “BP, Shell, ExxonMobil, Total, Saudi Arabia’s state oil company and Chevron are among the largest 21 polluters responsible for $5.4tn (£4.3tn) in drought, wildfires, sea level rise, and melting glaciers among other climate catastrophes expected between 2025 and 2050…The study considers this to be a substantial yet conservative price tag, as the methodology excludes the economic value of lost lives and livelihoods, species extinction and other biodiversity loss, as well as other wellbeing components not captured in GDP.” The Guardian also publishes an opinion article by Jamaican journalist Andre Wright, who says the costs calculated by the study must be paid. He writes: “For centuries now, Caribbeans of African descent have seen their demands for reparations arising from transatlantic chattel slavery blunted by former European colonial states on the basis that too much time has passed to establish social justice. However, that claim cannot be advanced in the face of an unfolding climate change apocalypse.”

Elsewhere, Reuters reports that ExxonMobil has pushed back on investor calls to consider risks from climate change and measures needed to tackle it, saying that a net-zero world by 2050 is unlikely to be achieved. Commenting on the International Energy Agency’s pathway for reaching net-zero by 2050, which included an immediate end to new oil and gas expansion at the end of 2021, Exxon said it did not “meet the level of likelihood required to be considered in our financial statements”, according to Reuters. Exxon also said: “It is highly unlikely that society would accept the degradation in global standard of living required to permanently achieve a scenario like the IEA NZE.” On Twitter, Carbon Brief’s deputy editor Dr Simon Evans explains why it is inaccurate to say that the path to net-zero will lead to a degradation of living standards.

The United Arab Emirates has invited Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, a leader accused of war crimes by many western countries, to the COP28 climate summit to be held in Dubai in November, the Financial Times reports. Defending the decision, a COP28 spokesperson tells the FT: “COP28 is committed to an inclusive COP process that produces transformational solutions. This can only happen if we have everyone in the room.” The FT adds: “The UAE and Saudi Arabia have been leading Arab efforts to rehabilitate the Syrian regime, which has been able to reassert its control over most of Syria after receiving military backing from Iran and Russia during the civil war.” The FT reports this morning that Amnesty International has branded the decision a “sick joke”, while the UK and US governments have said that it is up to the host who to invite to the summit. The newspaper reports: “The US National Security Council said that it was ‘up to the UAE who they invite to COP’, in a statement to the FT. But the US had ‘no plans to normalise relations’ with the Assad regime, it added, without ‘authentic progress’ on resolving the conflict in Syria. The UK government also said invitations for COP28 were ‘a matter for the host country’ and the UN. However, the government ‘remains opposed to engagement with the Assad regime and we believe they must be held accountable for the human rights abuses and violations they have committed’.” Amnesty International said the invitation was not “remotely about tackling the climate crisis” but “part of an insidious normalisation process designed to maintain impunity for leaders across the region”, the FT adds. A US government official tells Climate Home News that they do not believe Assad should be welcomed into international forums that typically take place at COPs, such as the leaders’ summit.

Elsewhere, the Guardian speaks to former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres, who says that a plan from the UAE to focus on phasing out emissions rather than fossil fuels would be “very dangerous”. She tells the paper: “When you are the president of the Cop, you cannot put forward the position of the country that you’re coming from. You have to be able to be neutral.”

China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) has released electricity industry statistics from January to April, reports China Energy News. It says that, by the end of April, the cumulative installed capacity of power generation nationwide reached approximately 2,650 gigawatts (GW), a year-on-year increase of nearly 10%. Among them, the installed capacity of wind power has reached approximately 380GW, a year-on-year increase of 12%; solar power generation has reached approximately 440GW, a year-on-year increase of 36%, the report states. It adds that, in the first four months of the year, investment in solar power was up 156% and nuclear 52%.

Meanwhile, Chinese president Xi Jinping pledged to enhance collaborative efforts in developing oil and gas resources in Central Asia last Friday during the China-Central Asia Summit held in the Chinese city Xi’an, reports the Associated Press. Xi has emphasised Beijing’s desire to accelerate the construction of an extra pipeline to supply gas from Central Asia and “to promote nuclear power”, the article adds. France 24 focuses on the Cook Islands prime minister Mark Brown’s call at the G7 summit in Hiroshima. He says: “For us in the Pacific, we’re already facing those climate impacts now. So the focus for us is on adaptation measures and financing for adaption”. He also urges the US and China to not bring “adversarial competition” to the region, as the rival powers” intensify their bids for influence”, the outlet reports.

Separately, Chinese online news site Sina News has published an interview with Liu Yinhao, the chairman of China Environmental Product Declaration (EPD) technology committee, on the one year anniversary of launching the EPD program for the iron and steel industry. He says EPD as a “third party” has provided “authoritative data” for the entire industry, which can be a key for setting an international “low-carbon steel standard”. For Chinese steel companies, “there is a need to grade low-carbon emission products. Considering cost factors, it is possible to offer higher-grade low-carbon products to premium customers who are willing to pay a premium based on their demand,” he adds. The Economic Daily highlights that, currently, there are still significant challenges to be addressed in the construction of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs) in rural areas and counties in China. 

Elsewhere, Politico reports that Sharon Burke, former assistant defence secretary for operational energy during the Obama administration, tells an energy panel that the US can not solve climate change without cooperation from China, India, Russia and other countries. Finally, Reuters carries a comment piece by senior market analyst John Kemp, who writes that during the first four months of the year, as the economy recovered from the end of Covid-19 lockdowns and the pandemic’s exit wave, China’s power generation increased “in line with the long-term average”.

The Financial Times has published an editorial looking at the tensions between the UK and EU over the so-called “rules of origin” regulations which mean that, from 2024, as part of the post-Brexit trading agreement, electric vehicles traded between the UK and EU will need to have 45% of their parts sourced from either region, or face 10% tariffs. The looming date led global carmaker Stellantis – which owns brands such as Vauxhall, Peugeot and Citroën – to warn UK lawmakers last week that it may have to close one of its electric van factories. “The UK – which is further behind Europe in the EV space – must recognise that the tariffs are just one element of the large effort needed to build a competitive EV system,” says the FT editorial. “Developing a thriving EV and battery industry requires long-term and joined-up thinking across sectors. To date that is lacking in the UK. The government shuns the notion of an industrial strategy altogether, and recent political upheaval has not helped. It has been left chasing standalone deals and lobbying Brussels – an ineffectual approach compared to the billions being promised in the US and Europe. For electric automakers, Britain is not looking like a serious long-term bet.” Writing for BBC News last week, its economics editor Faisal Islam has a feature under the line: “Is the UK too late to beat the US in the global trade war?” BusinessGreen carries a comment piece by Raoul Ruparel of the Boston Consulting Group, who argues that the “UK’s green industrial policy need not rely on massive subsidies”, instead it should “draw from its strengths in R&D, innovation and services”.

In other UK comment, the Times columnist Janice Turner argues that the recent local elections in England show that “beyond the blue wall, a green hedge is rising”. She looks at the profile of the new Green party councillors taking seats, compared to Brighton where the party lost some: “These [in Brighton] are the ‘watermelon’ Greens (red on the inside) who include Corbynistas defecting from Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour, or ‘figs’ (black, red and green) – anarcho-communists involved in Insulate Britain or Just Stop Oil. But those now taking power in Tory rural areas are a wholly different fruit: mangoes (orange inside) who most resemble, and work in tandem with, Lib Dems. These Greens tend to be solid, older, serious, well-educated and practical people who have had conventional, even distinguished careers.” Finally, an editorial in the climate-sceptic Sunday Telegraph claims that “climate alarmism should not be taught in schools”. 

Writing in the Guardian, Carbon Brief’s senior policy editor Dr Simon Evans notes that “barely a day goes by without a slew of hostile newspaper coverage – or prominently placed diatribes – about low-traffic neighbourhoods [LTNs]”. He adds: “Many of the arguments deployed against LTNs suffer from the same fatal flaw: in the same way that climate sceptics often reject the idea that rapid global heating is a problem that needs addressing, many anti-LTN attacks ignore the damages caused by rising road traffic…we [can’t] gloss over the bizarre interventions in the UK debate over LTNs by prominent North American climate sceptics such as Steven Milloy and Jordan Peterson, or the other direct links between opposition to LTNs and climate scepticism. There have also been attempts to hijack anti-LTN protests with “conspiracy paranoia” and even far-right activism. Just as climate sceptics followed in the footsteps of those working to oppose controls on cigarette smoking, so too have a vocal minority used similar tactics to sow doubt over the impacts and effectiveness of LTNs, all while failing to acknowledge the harms that LTNs seek to address. While these attacks are bound to continue, their success is far from guaranteed. Indeed, if the signs of a turning tide on the climate crisis are any guide, then LTNs and other attempts to tackle the harms caused by road traffic may yet have the last laugh.”

The Washington Post gives space to its opinion graphics reporter Amanda Shendruk to argue that Hollywood “should play a positive role in the fight against global warming by offering a wealth of stories that help humanity make sense of and address the present and future of life on a dangerously warming planet”. She continues: “So far, most climate-fiction movies have told bleak tales. After watching 61 of them, Michael Svoboda, an assistant professor of writing at George Washington University, found that most featured disaster. The genre includes all sorts of catastrophes, from floods and ice ages to hurricanes and sea level rise. The fossil-fuel industry is rarely even acknowledged. The trouble is, audiences have become inured to end-of-the-world stories. And despite being highly entertaining – I, myself, love them! – tales of doom, told over and over, don’t encourage action…Together, Svoboda and I updated his research to include 100 climate change films and television series, spanning 1966 to present day, and found that 66% depict disaster or a grim future.”

Meanwhile, Laura Kuenssberg has interviewed Hollywood legend and former US politician Arnold Schwarzenegger for her Sunday BBC show. Writing for the BBC News website, she says: “When we meet to talk at his glossy climate conference in Vienna where everything, including the hot dogs, is vegan, he teases himself to make a big point. Politicians must move much faster, he believes, to preserve the planet for the generations to come. And Schwarzenegger’s strong belief is that the technology exists to crack down on emissions but the ‘boomers’ might miss the chance…He said it’s ‘the same with the environmental movement, we have to get out of the mode of stopping every project from being built. We’ve got to go and build, build, build all these green projects.’” And the Boston Globe carries a piece by newspaper columnist Jay Ambrose criticising Joe Boden’s climate policies: “Biden has to be carefully watched, as in his having cut down on our production of fossil fuels before replacements were available and forcing us to purchase them from foreign countries. We lost money and did nothing to lessen climate change threats.”

Abrupt shifts between wet and dry extremes – known as “precipitation whiplash” – are becoming “increasingly rapid and intense” as the climate warms, according to a new study. The authors assess observed and projected changes in precipitation whiplash and investigate the role of human activity, including greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, on these changes. They project that by the end of this century, global precipitation whiplash will occur 2.6 times more often than in 1979-2019. The most dramatic increases are in the polar and monsoon regions, the paper finds. It adds that “by 2079, anthropogenic greenhouse gases are projected to increase 55% of the occurrences risk of precipitation whiplash”.

New research finds that under 1.5C and 2.5C warming, around 15% and 30% of species respectively could pass “thermal thresholds” – putting them at risk of “sudden warming-driven collapse”. The authors use data for around 36,000 marine and terrestrial species and climate projections until the year 2100 to show how much of each species’ geographical range will be at risk of thermal exposure as the climate warms. “On average, more than 50% of the increase in exposure projected for a species will occur in a single decade,” the paper finds. It adds: “These results indicate that climate threats to thousands of species are expected to expand abruptly in the coming decades, thereby highlighting the urgency of mitigation and adaptation actions.”