Nearly 400 people connected to fossil-fuel industries attended last year’s UN climate talks in Egypt, a grouping that was larger than all but two of the national delegations, according to the Associated Press. New data analysis of more than 24,000 participants by the organisation found that these delegates wore badges proclaiming their affiliations with the likes of the government of Brazil, Indigenous organisations of the Amazon and the Climate Registry, it notes. But even as UN leaders, scientists and others called for an elimination of coal, oil and natural gas, various delegations included members who “in some way owed part or all of their paychecks to fossil fuel burning”, the article notes, with many of these same people likely to be at COP28 in Dubai later this month. 

Meanwhile, the global consultancy McKinsey & Company is “using its position” as a key advisor to the UN’s COP28 to “push the interests of its big oil and gas clients”, reports Agence France-Presse. According to multiple sources and leaked documents, behind closed doors the US-based firm has proposed future energy scenarios to the agenda setters of the summit that are at odds with the climate goals it publicly espouses, the AFP investigation has found. An “energy transition narrative” drafted by McKinsey only reduces oil use by 50% by 2050 and calls for trillions in new oil and gas investment per year from now until then, the article states. McKinsey has responded by telling AFP that it is committed to help clients reach the 2050 net-zero target and this means engaging with “high-emitting sectors”.

India is “doubling down” on coal-fired power ahead of COP28 “as a sharp uptick in the economy fuels a surge in electricity demand”, the Times of India reports. “There is going to be pressure on nations at COP28 to reduce coal usage…[W]e are not going to compromise on availability of power for our growth, even if it requires that we add coal-based capacity,” said India’s power minister RK Singh at a meeting of state energy ministers, quoted in the article. While saying that India would still meet its climate targets, Singh is quoted as saying “the country has to start work on 30,000MW [of] new thermal generation capacity on top of the 50,000MW already underway to avoid shortage”, adding that he is asking all states to run at full capacity and import coal. Meanwhile, the Hindu Businessline reports that the country’s steel ministry has reached out to the Mongolian government to “fast-track” imports of coking coal, while “there is an ongoing discussion to increase sourcing of coking coal from Russia, Indonesia and New Zealand”. 

India, according to the UN’s Production Gap report (see above), leads the “near-term increase” in coal production as it “seeks self-reliance and views the coal industry as currently being of paramount importance for income and employment generation”, the Wire reports. State-owned Coal India’s production alone for October has risen 15.36% since last year, according to the outlet. “There is no economic or financial rationale for the construction of new coal power plants in India – renewable energy is more than able to meet increased demand if the right policies are enacted,” Ashish Fernandes of Climate Risk Horizons tells the Wire. “The public investment that is meant to go to new coal would be more productive if spent on India’s underfunded energy transition,” he adds.

To achieve its “net-zero by 2070” target, India would need “cumulative investments worth $10.1tn, almost thrice India’s current GDP,” according to a comment piece by India’s G20 climate and energy sherpas Amitabh Kant and Soham Kshirsagar in the Financial Express. They add that “more private investment needs to be unlocked and mobilised as the finance required to reach the climate goals is now in trillions of dollars.” Separately, the Economic Times reports that India is developing “digital public infrastructure for climate finance”, “envisioned to play a critical role in providing immediate financial relief” to communities impacted by “climate-induced disasters”. 

In other news, El Niño is “expected to last at least until April 2024”, which could mean “a relatively warm winter, more fog days between December and February [and] more [pre-monsoon] heatwaves” for India, the Hindustan Times reports. Finally, as the smog in Delhi “is so bad that training sessions before [Cricket World Cup matches] ha[ve] been cancelled”, Deutsche Welle carries a piece titled: “How the climate crisis is affecting elite sport.”

Climate change is driving a years-long extreme drought in Iran, Iraq and Syria, an area that encompasses the Fertile Crescent and a cradle of civilisation, reports the New York Times. According to a new study (also covered by Carbon Brief), years of conflict and political instability combined with challenges around rapid urbanisation in the region have limited the ability of local communities to respond to the drought equating to a humanitarian crisis, the article continues. In the past three years, the drought has “shrivelled wheat crops” and led to tensions between neighbouring countries and communities over access to water supplies, it adds. Climate change means that drought of this severity is no longer rare, reports the Guardian. In the Tigris-Euphrates basin, which covers large parts of Syria and Iraq, such droughts would have happened once every 250 years, and now are expected once a decade due to climate change, it continues. The Guardian quotes Prof Mohammad Rahimi, at Semnan University, Iran, who says: “Our study has shown that human-caused climate change is already making life considerably harder for tens of millions of people in west Asia. And with further warming, Syria, Iraq and Iran will become even harsher places to live.” The study looked at temperatures, rainfall and moisture levels over the past three years and compared it with multiple computer simulations of the conditions in the world without human-caused climate change, reports the Associated Press. These simulations did not find significant “climate change fingerprints” in reduced rainfall, but evaporation of water in lakes, rivers, wetlands and soil were much higher than they would have been without it, the article adds.

The UK’s forests are facing a “catastrophic ecosystem collapse”, according to a panel of British experts, reports BBC News. Within the next 50 years, trees could suddenly fade and die, leaving “silent forests devoid of life”, according to the 42 strong panel, it continues. Woodlands are facing many challenges including climate change, biodiversity loss, invasive species, damage from deer and grey squirrels and an increase in pests and pathogens, with large-scale loss of forests that have been hit by “wind, fire, pests and disease” already seen in Europe and North America, adds the broadcaster. “A collapsed forest would be heart-breaking, devoid of its essential life and all the joy and benefits it gives to humanity,” says Dr Eleanor Tew of Forestry England and Cambridge University, BBC News notes. But there is time to make a difference, the article notes, and ensure forests are more resilient. This could be achieved by taking action such as planting forests made-up of a range of different species that are better for wildlife and more resilient to a variety of pressures. Separately, data from the department for environment, food and rural affairs (Defra) has found that woodland birds are facing an accelerating decline in the UK, reports the Guardian. Almost all bird types are reducing in abundance, despite years of warnings from nature bodies that action needs to be taken to protect habitats and save species, the article continues. Woodland birds have fared the worst, with their indicator of abundance having fallen by 37% since 1970, and by 15% in the past five years. Bird indicators, in general, have fallen by 6% in the past 5% and 15% since 1970, the newspaper adds.

COP28 president-designate Sultan Al Jaber says that many projects undertaken by China under the belt and road initiative (BRI) are related to supporting the green economy, reports industry outlet China Energy Net. He stresses that China’s “leadership in clean technology is a crucial factor in facilitating the global energy transition, addressing climate change and promoting development”. The state news agency Xinhua covers the UN’s Adaptation Gap Report 2023, which finds that the climate funds currently raised by developed countries are “far from sufficient” to help developing countries adapt to climate change with only an estimated “one-tenth to one-eighteenth” of the adaptation funds needed. The state-run newspaper China Daily quotes Abdulla Salem Obaid Al Dhaheri, UAE’s ambassador to ASEAN and Indonesia, saying that funding is “needed for a clean-energy transition to build a green economy in developing countries” and that funds should take the form of loans. The Communist party-backed newspaper People’s Daily carries an interview with Prof Hassan Dajani, from Al-Hussein Bin Talal University in Jordan, saying that China is “committed to its [climate] promises and considers addressing climate change as a new opportunity to achieve high-quality development”. 

Meanwhile, energy outlet BJX News reports that China has started soliciting opinions on national standards on product carbon footprint requirements and guidelines. The state-run industry newspaper China Energy News reports that the Chinese government asks that government and social capital cooperation should be limited to projects with operational profits, including areas in water and gas supply, heating, ecological conservation, environmental management and hydroelectric projects with power generation capabilities.

In other news, Chinese business and finance outlet Caixin covers an agreement by China and Australia to expand engagement in areas such as energy and climate change, as Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese wrapped up his visit to Beijing. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post quotes Chinese vice president Han Zheng saying that China is ready to strengthen dialogue with the US “at all levels” and work together on global challenges. Xinhua reports that some US clean-tech companies present at the 6th China International Import Expo (CIIE) are “keen on fostering partnerships” in China due to its “vast market…commitment to reducing carbon emissions and [leadership] in cleantech development”. Finally, a separate Xinhua article writes that Bangladesh’s first wind power plant, built by a Chinese company, has begun operations and is accelerating the country’s energy transition and green development.

“The UK’s annual haul of scrap steel would cover Hyde Park to a depth of six metres,” says the FT’s Helen Thomas opening a comment piece about the greening of steel production. “As more metal reaches the end of its useful life, that will grow. The country should make better use of it, in ways that also cut the carbon emissions associated with the steel industry by 70 to 80%. That’s the plan – though you wouldn’t know it from the furore around UK steel in recent weeks. India-owned Tata Steel last week pulled back from the brink of an announcement that two of the UK’s remaining four coal-fired blast furnaces would close imminently, with an electric arc furnace to be erected in their place in Port Talbot at a cost of £1.25bn…This is becoming a model of how to do essentially the right thing, just really badly…Ultimately, though, it is hard to see a future for the UK steel sector that doesn’t involve switching to lower-emitting EAFs and making much better use of scrap. The emissions from blast furnaces are so vast, accounting for most of the 14% of UK industrial emissions that relate to steel, that moving reasonably quickly is vital.” Thomas concludes: “The wider lesson is this: even doing the right thing without proper workforce planning and supporting industrial strategy is a poor approach to energy transition.”

Meanwhile, writing in the Independent, Samuel Kasumu, a former special adviser to Boris Johnson when he was UK prime minister, hits out at Rishi Sunak arguing that his “attendance at COP28 will be a global embarrassment for Britain”. He continues: “Having served as the most senior Black adviser in 10 Downing Street, I know first hand how real change is always driven by outsiders. Which is why I wasn’t surprised to find a repeat of old policies announced in the King’s Speech – namely, Sunak’s plan to accelerate annual North Sea oil and gas licensing. The announcement comes just weeks before world governments converge on the UN Cop28 climate summit hosted by the UAE – perhaps the last chance for a global deal to avoid the dreaded 1.5C threshold that would herald global catastrophe. Given this urgency, Sunak’s plan is a regressive slap in the face to the international community that betrays Britain’s climate obligations at the worst possible time.” In the Guardian, Graham Readfearn has a feature on last week’s gathering in London of various leading right-wing influencers, many of whom are climate sceptics: “Attendees of the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship were treated to a grab-bag of cherrypicked talking points from some speakers that ignored the risks of climate change,” he explains, adding: “In a year likely to be the hottest on record and beset by floods, heatwaves and temperature records on land and in the ocean, speakers characterised climate change as a minor speed bump in a journey towards ‘human flourishing’.” The Times, however, continues to give a platform to its climate-sceptic columnist Juliet Samuel, who writes: “Highly speculative climate models and net-zero accounting (which ignores emissions driven offshore) have driven us to adopt a completely unworkable set of energy policies that have loaded up costs while having no material effect on global emissions.” And an editorial in the Daily Mail attacks Just Stop Oil protestors for the “lack of humanity” displayed with their “purile stunts”.

A new study examines how environmental change over the past 11,000 years has affected polar bears around Greenland. Using a combination of techniques including genomics and ecological modelling, the researchers find that periods of warmer sea surface temperature and reduced sea ice cover are associated with reductions in suitable habitat and declines in the effective population. Even with polar bears’ ability to adapt relatively rapidly, the paper notes that “pace and scale of predicted near-future ecological change in the Arctic…are likely to leave polar bears vulnerable to climate and environmental change in the near future”.