The full scale of devastation in Libya is still not clear as aid agencies struggle to reach cut-off areas following Storm Daniel hitting the north African country on Saturday night, reports the Guardian. Aid is starting to reach the port city of Derna, but while agencies such as the Libyan Red Crescent place the death toll at 10,000, the director of al-Bayda medical centre, Abdul Rahim Maziq has placed it at 20,000, it continues. “Corpses still litter the street, and drinkable water is in short supply. The storm has killed whole families and, with the remoteness of some villages and the rudimentary nature of municipal government, it will take time for the death toll to be confirmed,” the article states. Mass graves have been dug, while “many are believed to have been washed out to sea”, reports the Evening Standard.

Storm Daniel – a Mediterranean hurricane-like system known as a medicane – brought more than 400mm of rain to parts of the north-east coast within a 24-hour period, reports the BBC News. The region normally sees 1.5mm of rain during the whole of September, it adds, with Libya’s National Meteorological Centre stating this is a new record. “It’s too early to attribute with certainty the severity of this storm to rising global temperatures. However, climate change is thought to be increasing the frequency of the strongest medicanes,” notes the outlet. Bloomberg details how climate change is impacting extreme weather events, citing Carbon Brief analysis that maps the “attribution” studies that have been carried out around the world. Raghu Murtugudde, a professor at the Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay and emeritus professor at University of Maryland told Time that human activity and climate change together “are producing compound effects of storms and land use”. He notes that catastrophic flooding in Libya was made worse by poorly maintained infrastructure. A Guardian analysis piece by the newspaper’s diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour says “when the climate crisis meets a failed state, the outcome is the kind of disaster that Libya is witnessing in Derna”. The scale of the devastation in the city is a function of the country’s failed politics, Wintour notes, highlighting that since the “bloody western-backed ousting of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011,” the country has been governed by two rival administrations. The two dams built in the narrow valley above Derna by a Yugoslav company in the 1970s were “an accident waiting to happen”, Wintour continues, adding that the risk they posed had been the subject of academic discussion last year. 

The disaster in Libya comes after a string of deadly floods around the world this month, reports NPR, from China to Brazil to Greece. All have been caused by extremely heavy rain, which climate change “makes more common”, even in arid places where the total amount of precipitation is small, it adds. Storm Daniel swept through Greece before hitting Libya, where it caused floods that killed 15 people, reports Reuters. A prosecutor for Greece’s top criminal court has now ordered a probe into the causes and handling of the floods, which swamped houses and destroyed infrastructure.

Almost everyone in the US experienced hotter temperatures over the summer due to human-caused climate change, reports Axios. Research by the news and analysis group Climate Central found that 326 million people or 97% of the US population experienced at least one day when the temperatures were notably impacted by climate change, it continues. In 45 of the 244 US cities analysed, at least half of all summer days had temperatures made at least twice as likely by climate change, Axios notes. The three cities with the most hot summer days driven by climate change were San Juan, Puerto Rico; Victoria, Texas; and Lafayette, Louisiana, the article adds. The Guardian quotes Andrew Pershing, director of climate science at Climate Central, who said: “The trend is so strong there, every year just seems to be getting harder and harder in the south-west…But then we have other places in the country where the heat will pop up, and one of the lessons of the last few summers is that it can happen just about anywhere.” The article also notes that ocean temperatures have been at all-time highs, “contributing to an intensifying hurricane season”.

Six of the nine “planetary boundaries” that define a “safe operating space for humanity” have been crossed, according to a new study covered in the Guardian. It explains that the planetary boundaries “are the limits of key global systems – such as climate, water and wildlife diversity – beyond which their ability to maintain a healthy planet is in danger of failing”. The Financial Times lists the nine boundaries: “climate change; biosphere integrity; land system change; freshwater use; vital phosphate and nitrogen flows; ocean acidification; and ozone depletion; as well as newly added measures of the levels of aerosols and chemical compounds, such as plastics and nuclear waste.” The paper adds: “Only three out of nine areas – ocean acidification, aerosol levels and ozone depletion – were in the safe operating zone, the researchers found. But both the oceans and air pollution were nearing danger points, with the latter already breaching limits in south Asia and China.” The nine planetary boundaries were first defined in a 2009 study, the Associated Press reports. [An update was published in 2015 warning that four of the nine boundaries had been crossed.] The new study is also covered in the New Scientist, CNN, Scientific American and Bloomberg. [Earlier this year, a team including many of the same scientists published a paper, covered by Carbon Brief, which added a “justice framework” to the planetary boundaries system. The new study builds on the original planetary boundaries framework – not the 2023 update.]

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer’s pledge to decarbonise the British electricity system by 2030 is not possible, Gary Smith, leader of the GMB trade union, has said, reports the Times. In continuing criticism of Starmer on environmental policy, Smith said Labour had been “hoodwinked” into pursuing a more radical net-zero policy than it would be able to deliver, the newspaper says. He also accused politicians of pursuing net-zero policies on the backs of the poor, and argued renewable energy could not be used to replace all gas-fired capacity by the end of the decade because of delays in the supply chain, it adds. The statements follow the UK’s most recent Contracts for Difference auction, where no offshore wind secured contracts due to cost pressures, as reported by Carbon Brief. Speaking to the Spectator, Smith said: “It was very embarrassing. Whitehall told us wind was getting cheaper and cheaper. Now there will be no bids for the next round of licences because the wind industry can’t afford to put up the projects.” Smith suggested that a 2030 decarbonisation date is partly “impossible” due to National Grid not being able to get undersea cables to support further offshore wind, noting that there are four suppliers of cable and “they’re all booked out to 2030”, the outlet reports. The Daily Mail covers the interview, quoting Smith: “The renewables lobby is very wealthy and powerful. I think people on the Left, for good intentions, have got hoodwinked into a lot of this.”

In other UK news, wind capacity has surpassed gas power capacity for the first time, reports BusinessGreen. The second quarter of 2023 saw fossil fuel generation plummet, allowing wind to take the top spot, according to the latest edition of the Drax Electric Insights report from Imperial College London, it continues. Installed wind capacity in June reached 27.9 gigawatts (GW), exceeding the 27.7GW of installed gas generation capacity, the outlet adds. Electricity output from gas fell by 23% on an annual basis in the second quarter (Q2) of the year, while coal-fired production fell by a record 75%, reports Bloomberg. It quotes the report, which states Q2 makes “Britain only the fifth country in the world to have built more wind farms than any other form of power station”.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen spoke at length about the EU’s flagship Green Deal in her State of the Union speech on Wednesday, reports Politico. “As we enter the next phase of the European Green Deal, one thing will never change: We will keep supporting European industry throughout this transition,” von der Leyen told the European Parliament in Strasbourg, the article states. However, she avoided any mention of new or ongoing legislative efforts, making the speech the “clearest sign yet that the EU’s climate efforts are moving from regulation to implementation”, notes Politico. Some left-wing MEPs and green groups criticised her reluctance to step up climate ambition, the lack of nature protection legislation and omitting the EU’s 2040 emissions target in her speech, it adds. In an opinion piece in Energy Monitor, journalist Dave Keating argues that despite von der Leyen trying to reassure parliament that she is resisting pressure from her conservative European Peoples Party to rein in the Green Deal’s ambition, her “political incentives are not in the deal’s favour”.

One of von der Leyen’s “strongest and most specific” remarks in the speech focused on the electric car sector, announcing that “the EU would not tolerate China dumping cut-price electric cars on the European market”, reports the Guardian. (See more below.) She announced an anti-subsidy probe into China’s electric car industry, in an attempt to shield European manufacturers before they are priced out by Chinese rivals, reports the Financial Times in an article on its frontpage. The European Commission president noted that European companies are often undercut by competitors benefitting from huge subsidies, the article adds. While imports of Chinese cars are currently small, they are growing and could hit 15% in the next two years, it notes. The commission has been under pressure for months from parts of the European motor industry, notes an article in the Times, who have called for it to step in over Chinese imports, issuing “grave warnings” about the impact on factory jobs in the continent.

Beyond electric cars, von der Leyen put forward a package of measures to support the EU’s wind power industry, as renewable energy companies struggle with challenges such as inflations, reports Reuters. “We will fast-track permitting even more. We will improve the auction systems across the EU. We will focus on skills, access to finance and stable supply chains,” she said.

The European Union is set to initiate a “new investigation” into China’s subsidies for electric vehicles, writes the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP), quoting European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. “Europe is open to competition but not for a race to the bottom,” it reports her as saying. Another SCMP article says that China has “slammed” the decision by the EU as “sheer protectionism”. The Wall Street Journal states the move “opens a new front” in the clash over “clean” technology. Yicai reports that Germany, Europe’s biggest car maker, opposes the idea and that “most EU member states” have expressed concerns. 

Meanwhile, a Xinhua editorial says that the US, which the state news agency describes as “skinflint”, should “put some skin in the game” to tackle climate change. Following agreements on clean energy cooperation between California and Chinese partners, the Hill reports that California governor Gavin Newsom plans to visit China to boost climate cooperation. Newsom describes his visit as “subnational work in the absence of any other leadership”. Politico also covers the news, adding that Newsom said “he was working with the Biden administration on the trip”.

Separately, the Global Times quotes Liu Bingjiang, an official in China’s ministry of ecology and environment, that China’s switch to natural gas and electricity in cooking and heating has improved air quality. The state-run China Daily also publishes Liu’s remarks that China will intensify its measures to reduce pollution from transportation. China Dialogue carries analysis that China’s ozone pollution has increased “steadily” in the first half of this year. Chinese business news outlet Jiemian covers a report finding that in 2018, carbon emissions from urban passenger transportation across China totalled 360m tonnes, 88% of which was generated by private vehicles. 

In other news, the China Project has published a report that Beijing’s hands-off approach has inspired local governments and state- and privately-owned enterprises to “assume control” over green hydrogen initiatives, but the outcomes have been varied. Finally, Xinhua reports that the completion of China’s largest solar-to-hydrogen demonstration project marks a “significant breakthrough”.

Unlike recent Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETPs) deals signed between the G7 and emerging economies to move away from fossil fuels, “no Indian deal is expected in the near future”, experts have told Climate Home News. Reasons for this, the story says, include “the JETP’s emphasis on phasing out coal, the relatively small amount of financing involved, as well as the debt nature of that finance”. To add to this list, a JETP “is seen as a political statement that will be played as a win for G7 countries”, not “necessarily…a win for India, especially ahead of national elections next year”. Most of the 13-20m Indians “working in coal and allied industries are informal workers who may not be covered by a JETP-style program”, said Swati D’Souza front eh Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), while Ashwini Swain of the Centre for Policy Research has told Climate Home News that India needs a “separate model” of JETP that “focuses on India’s own agenda” of expanding renewable energy. He added: “If we recognise India’s reliance on coal for at least the next few decades, we can talk about how that coal can be cleaner, or finance for restoring ecology after a mine closure.” 

In the G20 Delhi Declaration last weekend, fossil fuels “find mention only in the phasedown of ‘unabated coal’ while overlooking the colossal contribution from oil and gas,” explained an analysis piece in Down to Earth. The outlet points out that “most of the climate and energy targets mentioned were reiterations of goals laid out in other fora” and while “many considered the consensus a diplomatic win for [India]… from a climate and energy perspective, if consensus is sought on a low ambition package, is it truly an achievement?” The agreement instead “appears to have put heavier emphasis on energy access”, notes Carbon Copy, adding that the text does “provide important precedence for future negotiations on the quantification and delivery of climate finance”. 

Separately, in a Mongabay India story on the Global Stocktake report, Climate Action Network’s Harjeet Singh is quoted as saying “we can’t talk about global peaking [of emissions] without equity”. Meanwhile, the Financial Times carries a column by senior trade writer Alan Beattie titled: “The ‘Global South’ is a pernicious term that needs to be retired.”

In other climate news, warmer sea-surface temperatures have “decreased the mean summer monsoon rainfall over India while aggravating extreme rainfall events, such as the one seen over the northern Himalayan states in 2023”, the Straits Times reports. “On all its four sides, India is grappling with a rapidly changing climate,” climate scientist Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, who led the research, told the outlet. Concerns about a diminished rice yield because of an “erratic” monsoon “led India to ban the export of widely consumed non-basmati white rice varieties in July, accentuating climate change’s impact on not just the country’s food security but also that of other countries”, the story adds.

Humans, not just nature, caused the “apocalyptic” devastation wreaked on Derna in Libya, argues an editorial in the Guardian. It is “too soon” to say if or how far Storm Daniel was impacted by climate change, the article notes, “but it is clear that global heating is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events”. Scenes like those in Libya, as well as Hong Kong, Greece, the US, Spain and others, highlight the need for adaptation “as well as slashing carbon emissions”, the newspaper says. The Libyan government has not only failed to protect its citizens, “but also put them in greater danger” by neglecting critical infrastructure and allowing it to be “plundered by the powerful and their cronies”. The editorial concludes: “Libyans have good reason to feel that they have been failed by the international community as well as their own leaders. Now more than ever, they need real support.”

Elsewhere, an editorial from the Sun argues that politicians are “still wildly out of touch over the affordability of ­electric cars”. It is “insane” to think drivers will switch to EVs, it continues, despite noting that 17% of new cars are electric. When “an expert predicts ‘those over 55, women, and those on low incomes’ may be unable to afford to go electric, he’s underplaying it. It applies to MOST of us”, it says, casting doubt of the 2030 deadline for the sale of new internal combustion engine vehicles. Meanwhile in the Daily Telegraph, climate-sceptic columnist Allison Pearson says that “the government must repeal net-zero – and stop bullying Britain to hit a meaningless target”.

Bernard Looney “deserves credit” for making BP “face up to the energy transition”, argues a Lex opinion piece in the Financial Times, following the news that the CEO stepped down yesterday. This has been “no easy effort” as the market has “not rewarded BP for its efforts to invest in cleaner fuels” despite the International Energy Agency predicting demand for fossil fuels will peak before 2030, the article says. “His charisma smoothed its shift to cleaner technologies – even if it will remain 75% fossil fuel dependent at the decade’s end,” the piece notes, with someone equally politically agile required to execute the transition plan. It concludes: “BP’s shift towards biogas, hydrogen and electric vehicle charging are backed by government policies and have decent barriers to entry. The oil major needs another long-serving boss, similar to Looney’s predecessor Bob Dudley, to ensure its transition stays on track.”

In Bloomberg, columnist Javier Blas highlights concern over BP’s “revolving CEO door”, after Looney marked the third chief executive to leave the oil company prematurely. Jonathan Prynn, the Evening Standard’s business editor, writes “BP is a serious business operating serious assets, and performing a vital role in the economy and the net-zero revolution. These embarrassing boardroom distractions are not helpful” in an opinion piece in the paper. In the Guardian, Nils Pratley argues that BP “should get out and argue the case for sticking to the transition timetable as Bernard Looney’s successor is sought”. A Daily Mail comment piece suggests Looney’s departure is “further proof that there is something distinctly rotten at the heart of Britain’s corporate culture”. And in Le Monde, economic columnist Philippe Escande argues Looney’s departure following an investigation found he failed to disclose relationships “is the way of Anglo-Saxon Protestant capitalism, which places trust between partners and respect for a certain moral code above all else”.

In a new analysis of past, present and future populations of bumblebees in Europe, around 38–76% of studied species currently classified as ‘Least Concern’ are projected to lose at least 30% of ecologically suitable territory by 2061-80, compared to 2000-14. Bumblebees are ranked among the highest contributors to crop production value in the northern hemisphere, but are threatened by habitat degradation and climate change, the study notes. The authors say the findings “underline the critical role of global change mitigation policies as effective levers to protect bumblebees from manmade transformation of the biosphere”.

A new paper finds that the temperature gradient across the equator in the tropical Atlantic – largely driven by greenhouse gases and volcanic aerosols – is a key determinant of Atlantic hurricane formation and Sahel rainfall. The relationship has been obscured, the authors say, partly because of a tendency for models to overestimate the long-term warming trend in the northern hemisphere relative to the southern hemisphere from around 1950. When this is corrected for, Atlantic hurricane activity and Sahel rainfall variations can be predicted from radiative forcing driven by anthropogenic emissions and volcanism, the paper concludes.