The European Commission says that European Union countries are “falling behind on their core climate change target and without stronger emissions-cutting policies risk missing the goal”, reports Reuters. The newswire continues: “In an assessment of EU countries’ national climate plans, the commission said these measures would together cut net EU greenhouse gas emissions 51% by 2030 – falling short of the bloc’s legally binding target of a 55% emissions reduction. Overall, countries are moving in the right direction. EU emissions have been falling since 1990, and installations of renewable energy have soared. But neither are happening fast enough to meet Europe’s climate ambitions.” Bloomberg quotes EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra saying: “It is clear we need stronger commitments in the final plans to put us firmly on the right track to climate neutrality, build resilience to climate impacts and to capitalise on the gains that come from the climate and energy transition.”

Separately, Reuters reports that seven countries including Germany, the Netherlands and France have pledged to eliminate CO2-emitting power plants from their electricity systems by 2035. The newswire adds: “Taken together, the countries account for nearly half of EU power production – largely thanks to the contributions from Germany and France, Europe’s two biggest power producers. The aim was set by EU members Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands and non-EU Switzerland, which aligns itself with some EU climate policies. In a joint statement, the countries said existing EU climate measures are likely to steer Europe towards a nearly CO2-free power sector by 2040. Agreeing to move faster together, the countries said, would help them jointly plan infrastructure to make sure they build enough grids and energy storage to integrate large amounts of low-carbon power into the network and keep it flowing across country borders.”

There is extensive media coverage of BP’s decision to suspend its shipments of fossil fuels through the Red Sea following attacks by Houthi rebels based in Yemen. The Times says: “Oil prices jumped by as much as 3% on Monday after BP paused all shipments through the Red Sea following attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The London-based oil major cited the ‘deteriorating security situation for shipping in the Red Sea’, following similar moves by the container shipping giants AP Moller-Maersk, MSC and Hapag-Lloyd in recent days. Brent crude, the global benchmark oil price, jumped as high as $79.51 per barrel at one stage and was trading up 2.5% at about $78.45 per barrel on Monday night. About 15% of global shipping passes through the Suez Canal, at the northern end of the Red Sea. It is the quickest route from Asia to Europe and one of the world’s most important shipping channels, with close to 20,000 vessels going through it each year. The alternative route from Asia to Europe involves going around the southern tip of Africa, taking up to 10 days longer and increasing shipping costs.” The Daily Telegraph quotes Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec: “You would expect the increase in oil prices to go through to the pumps over the next week or two.” The Guardian reports that the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, has announced the formation of a maritime protection force, Operation Prosperity Guardian, to defend shipping from the attacks. BBC News explains that the Houthi rebels have “declared their support for Hamas and have said they are targeting ships travelling to Israel, using drones and rockets against foreign-owned vessels”. The Guardian has published an explainer which concludes: “With central bankers the world over on the cusp of declaring victory in the fight against inflation, a rise in oil and gas – coupled with disruption to the global supply chain – could threaten to upend those successes.”

There is continuing media coverage of the UK government’s announcement that a carbon border tax will be introduced “by 2027”. The Financial Times says the tax aims to “protect British manufacturers and match similar measures in the EU, but industry has urged ministers to move faster”. The FT adds: “Imports of iron, steel, ceramics, cement and other goods from countries with weaker climate regulations than Britain will be subject to a levy to prevent UK companies from being undercut by foreign rivals. Ministers also view the levy as key to preventing the UK from becoming a dumping ground for carbon-intensive goods once the EU brings in its levy in 2026. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, said on Monday the new rules, which are subject to further consultation next year, should ‘give the industry confidence to invest in net-zero’. He added: ‘This levy will make sure carbon-intensive products from overseas – like steel and ceramics – face a comparable carbon price to those produced in the UK, so that our decarbonisation efforts translate into reductions in global emissions.’ But Make UK, which represents British industry, said the scheme should be implemented ‘as soon as possible’ to align with the timescale of the EU. Sector trade body Steel UK also warned the delayed implementation would leave its members at risk from the ‘dumping’ of high-emission steel exports from third countries, which had previously gone to the EU, into the British market.” The Times also highlights that “ministers [have] faced criticism over details of the policy, including slow implementation relative to a similar EU scheme”.

BusinessGreen says that “key questions remain” about the scheme, particularly about its “timetable and alignment with the EU”. It concludes its article: “Whether the UK’s CBAM [carbon border adjustment mechanism] sparks a response from its trading partners remains to be seen. While the government has provided some welcome clarification on its plans today, details over precisely how the CBAM will work in practice will only be determined after a separate consultation due sometime next year. As such, it is likely any row over the policy – either internationally or domestically – will be largely fought by the next government, whichever party leads it.” The Financial Times has published a Lex comment piece which says: “Companies with UK-based production had feared cheap, high emissions goods would flood the market if the government did not follow the EU. That is still a risk if the UK policy comes into force 12 months later. The bigger danger is that if the policy is poorly designed, it will create a bureaucratic nightmare for companies selling to the UK…Officials will also have to tread carefully to avoid a consumer backlash. A cross-border carbon tax could significantly increase retail prices for such goods as cars, fridges and washing machines. The tariff will be another big test of consumers’ appetite to shoulder decarbonisation costs.”

Chinese financial outlet Caijing Magazine carries an interview with Liu Zhenmin, who is expected to replace China’s outgoing climate envoy Xie Zhenhua. Liu says that the results of the global stocktake at COP28 are “relatively balanced…in the current international geopolitical landscape and the serious [global] north-south divisions”. He stresses that “we must not let ambitions become empty talk…for China, it is imperative to continue reducing the proportion of coal in its primary energy consumption and pursue a path of green and low-carbon development”. He adds that China “actively participated in the negotiations at COP28, making important contributions to the outcome document of the global stocktake”. The state broadcaster CGTN publishes an interview with Xie, carried out during the COP28 summit, in which he says: “The key is on implementation: how to unite countries worldwide to work together through the global stocktake, while adhering to the principles of the Paris Agreement and UNFCCC.” The Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily reports that Ma Aiming, deputy director of the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation (NCSC), says that “China is committed to forming a ‘fair, reasonable, and win-win global climate cooperation framework’”. It quotes him adding that China has signed “about 40 documents to collaborate with other developing countries by donating equipment necessary to combat climate change and offering training opportunities”. 

Meanwhile, with the onslaught of a cold snap in China, conventional energy enterprises are currently “operating at full capacity, exerting all efforts to increase production and ensure a stable energy supply”, says China Electric Power News. It adds that many regions are “actively exploring new methods of clean-energy heating, such as solar energy and geothermal energy, providing green support for people to stay warm during the winter”. Another article by the state-run industry newspaper says that the National Energy Administration (NEA), China’s top energy regulator, promptly implemented president Xi Jinping’s instructions and issued disaster prevention notices, highlighting the need to “make every effort in power restoration”. 

Separately, the state-run industry newspaper China Energy News quotes Sun Chuanwang, professor at Xiamen University, saying that “since the reform and opening-up, the policy system for the new energy has been gradually perfected…laying a solid foundation for the large-scale development and high-quality growth of the new energy sector”. Yahoo News says that “China is using thousands of mirrors to harness the sun’s energy”. Bloomberg reports that China’s lithium futures contract “got off to a wild start over the past five months, and the ride is not over yet”. It adds that “with both supply and demand for battery metals rising at breakneck speed and technology constantly evolving, predicting the industry’s future is proving a challenge”. 

Elsewhere, state news agency Xinhua covers a report by California-China Climate Institute (CCCI), the former California Governor Jerry Brown-led thinktank, which says that “lessons and experiences from the US and China have provided insights for other regions on best practices that could be adopted” in implementing climate policies for public health benefit. 

The rising risk of floods is “hollowing out counties across the US, creating abandoned pockets in the hearts of cities”, according to a new study covered by the Hill. The findings, which have been published in Nature Communications, show that abandoned areas tend to map onto regions of historic disinvestment and that the flight out of them is accelerating, the outlet says. The Hill adds: “In cities across the country, but particularly concentrated in the Midwestern states such as Indiana, Ohio, Michigan and Minnesota, increasing flood risk has driven this ‘climate abandonment’ of individual census tracts, sometimes quite rapidly.” Bloomberg explains: “The researchers created a model that looks at population change down to the smallest geographical unit used by the US Census, the census block. They overlaid that with historical flood data. They then tried to isolate the influence of flooding on migration as compared to other social and economic factors commonly associated with moving, like excellent or poor schools. They found that when between 5% to 10% of properties in a census block are at risk of flooding, there is a tipping point, and people begin moving out even if there are other attractive amenities, such as a view of the coast.” Axios says that the study was conducted by a team of scientists at the nonprofit First Street Foundation, with the methodology published by the peer-reviewed journal. Jeremy Porter, a study coauthor and head of climate change implications for First Street Foundation, tells the outlet: “This research is the first to find a systematic pattern in the historic population change data that shows climate migration is not something that will happen in the future, but it’s something that is already happening in the case of the most likely type of migration (local moves).” The Associated Press includes an interactive map of the study’s findings in its coverage.

Octopus Energy has raised $800m (£630m) from its shareholders in a move that values the company at nearly $8bn, weeks after it became the UK’s biggest power supplier, reports the Guardian. The newspaper continues: “Its existing investors, which include Japan’s Tokyo Gas and Al Gore’s Generation Investment Management, have ploughed in extra cash as the value of the utility company surged by 60% since its last fundraising round two years ago. The company said the investment was expected to create ‘3,000 green jobs’ in the UK in 2024. Earlier this month, Octopus completed the acquisition of Shell Energy – which the oil major put up for sale earlier this year – making it the UK’s largest domestic power supplier.” Greg Jackson, Octopus’s CEO, is quoted in the Financial Times saying that the money would help with expanding globally “every part of the ecosystem”, with a particular push on accelerating the rollout of heat pumps. The Daily Telegraph says the company “aims to capitalise on the government’s push for net-zero”.

Relatedly, the Daily Express reports that a “government grant scheme to support the installation of heat pumps is set to bring a £1.5bn boost to nearly one million homes”. It adds: “Families and businesses will benefit from slashed energy bills following a £6bn funding boost to make homes warmer, ministers have announced…Britain will hit the target of installing 600,000 new heat pumps each year, energy efficiency minister Lord Callanan insisted today. Lord Callanan said the government is ‘on target’ to meet its 2028 heat pump installation goals, despite official figures showing yearly installations are currently far below this figure.”

Meanwhile, BBC News covers new analysis by Carbon Tracker which shows that “wasted wind power will add £40 to the average UK household’s electricity bill in 2023”. The outlet adds: “That figure could increase to £150 in 2026, Carbon Tracker has estimated. When it is very windy, the grid cannot handle the extra power generated. Wind farms are paid to switch off and gas-powered stations are paid to fire up. The cost is passed on to consumers. The government said major reforms will halve the time it takes to build energy networks to cope with extra wind power. Energy regulator Ofgem announced new rules in November, which it said would speed up grid connections.”

Polly Toynbee, the Guardian columnist, argues that, despite the Conservative party “hammering out daily attacks on Labour’s £28bn green prosperity plan”, there “can be no backtracking” for the UK’s opposition party. She continues: “That £28bn is the foundation stone of Labour’s future success. [Shadow chancellor] Rachel Reeves and [Labour leader] Keir Starmer have said it over and over again: investing in homegrown green energy is the way to bring in private investment, which is pitifully low. Growth is the only hope of raising Treasury income to repair public services, yet it falls miserably behind similar countries since the Tory chancellor George Osborne’s first axe-swinging budget of 2010, as every Keynesian predicted. Rising to the top of the G7 in growth is one of Starmer’s five missions: that £28bn follows the lead of Bidenomics, state investment that is propelling the US economy well ahead of Europe, let alone the UK.” Toynbee concludes: “In the new year Labour is recasting the plan, with rumours circulating of a windfall tax. Any hint of retreat would be pointless, when Tory anti-green attacks are bouncing off. The number £28bn is meaningless to most voters, so there is no point in cutting it – the political optics would be much the same whatever the sum. Nor are voters these days phobic about borrowing if it’s for investment: they distinguish between borrowing for mortgages and for holidays. Standing by the pledge is easy, as its purpose is popular. The winning message promises national energy independence and a new GB energy company to capture its value. As for the nervous Nellies, Labour has nothing to fear but fear itself.”

New research explores “the influence of powerful stakeholder groups” on shaping online communication around climate change and sustainability. Using machine learning, the study examines historical Twitter interactions relating to climate change over seven years (2014-21) for eight fossil fuel firms, 14 non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and eight inter-governmental organisations (IGOs). The findings show that fossil fuel companies are “more likely to respond to IGOs’ and NGOs’ online messaging changes, especially regarding environmental justice and climate action topics”. In addition, the researchers find that “climate change-driven extreme weather events and stock market performance do not significantly affect the patterns of communication among these firms and organisations”.

Drying in the Caribbean over the past 30 years has altered the migration patterns of the American redstart – a Jamaican bird species – new research finds. The authors use tail feather chemistry and geolocation data to investigate the influence of rainfall trends on the birds’ breeding location during the nonbreeding season. The study finds that the birds’ breeding origins have shifted more than 500 kilometres south since the 1990s. “We found that the relationship between annual survival and migration distance is mediated by precipitation, but only during dry years,” the authors say.