The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned that the chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C is “virtually zero” on current trends, reports Sky News. The UN body’s annual “emissions gap” report warns that greenhouse gas emissions were the highest ever recorded in 2023, the article notes. (The report is also covered by Carbon Brief, which highlights the “quantum leap” needed in country climate pledges under the Paris Agreement). As such the world is on course for a “catastrophic” temperature rise of more than 3C above pre-industrial levels, reports the Financial Times. The report adds that the chance to limit warming to 1.5C  “will be gone within a few years” without rapid action, the article notes. Current carbon-cutting commitments by countries for 2030 are not being met, and even if they were, they would still only limit the rise to a “still-disastrous 2.6C to 2.8C”, reports the Guardian. The 3.1C figure “isn’t strictly new”, says the BBC News, noting that it is “in line” with projections in the latest assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [These figures refer to a likelihood of greater than 66%.] The report says there is no more time for “hot air”, and urges nations to act at COP29 in November, it adds. Reuters quotes UN secretary general Antonio Guterres, who says: “We’re teetering on a planetary tight rope. Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster.” The report found that greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.3% between 2022 and 2023 worldwide, to a new high of 57bn tonnes of CO2, it adds. To stay below 2C of warming, global emissions would need to fall by around 28% between now and 2030, and by about 43% to stay at 1.5C, requiring a “blindingly fast transformation of the global energy system”, reports the New York Times. The UNEP report found that China is no longer only the world’s biggest carbon polluter today, but also “one of the largest of all time”, reports the Times. The country’s historical emissions are now “on par” with the EU at 12% of CO2 released since 1850, although “still dwarfed” by the US on 20%, it adds. This story was also covered by Le Monde, Politico, New Scientist, the Daily Mail and others.   

For the first time, companies that import critical minerals for use by manufacturers will be able to obtain UK export finance, chancellor Rachel Reeves will announce on Wednesday in the Budget, reports the Financial Times. She is expected to say that “the measure is needed to help Britain in the global race to secure materials such as lithium, graphite and cobalt that are key to making products ranging from phones to electric vehicles”, the article continues. The change is designed to make it easier for businesses to import critical minerals from Commonwealth countries such as Australia, which has “huge deposits of lithium and other raw materials”, reports the Guardian. Demand for critical minerals is expected to far exceed supply over the next 10 years, but countries are increasingly reliant on China for such, it continues. In 2022, China controlled 72% of the world’s supply of lithium and 68% of cobalt, the article notes. The Daily Telegraph states that “there are fears that China is deliberately hoarding supplies, whilst sanctioned Russia holds many deposits that are now out of bounds to western nations”.

A report by independent economists was “toned down” following feedback from G20 nations, reports Climate Home News. The report on how G20 countries can shift their financial systems towards tackling climate change was commissioned from a group of 12 experts, led by economists Vera Songwe and Mariana Mazzucato, the article explains. It lists five “myths” blocking climate action, and provides recommendations to tackle them, including that G20 countries should “implement green industrial strategies, reform the global financial system and scale up financing for climate projects”, the article adds. However, an earlier draft seen by Climate Home shows that the public version was “watered down in response to critical feedback from G20 governments through their negotiators”, it states. Earlier versions included criticism of the G20, praise for billionaires’ tax and calls for central banks to help fight climate change, the article states. References to “G20 inaction” were replaced with “G20 inertia” and other lines such as “each year the destruction to the planet is harsher than the last”, were deleted, it notes. 

Meanwhile, according to Reuters, a report from the G20’s sustainable finance working group says that funds aimed at financing climate transition projects need to be “more targeted and operate with greater efficiency to improve the slow pace of disbursements”. Because climate and environment funds have different accreditation and programming requirements, current mechanisms provide “fragmented and time-consuming” pathways for accessing them, it adds.

At the Commonwealth leaders summit, Australia and the UK have agreed to collaborate on climate change and energy initiatives to help reach net-zero by 2050, reports the Associated Press. The “climate and energy partnership” will see the two countries work together on accelerating the development of renewable energy technologies, such as green hydrogen and offshore wind by “sharing technology and innovation”, it continues. It quotes Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese, who says in a statement: “This partnership will ensure we maximise the economic potential of the net-zero transition and build on our long-standing cooperation on international climate action and shared commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.” The partnership is low on details, however, and will do little to “assuage the fears of several Pacific Island leaders, whose low-lying island nations are at high risk of rising sea levels, and on Thursday called on both countries to do more to tackle climate change”, the article adds. A statement from Albanese and UK prime minister Keir Starmer states that the transition to net-zero will “open up economic opportunities creating new jobs and bolster the industrial base of both countries”, reports Reuters. Speaking at the summit, King Charles addressed the climate crisis and development challenges, while “sidestepping calls to directly address reparations for slavery”, reports the Guardian. Joshua Setipa from Lesotho, one of three candidates vying to be the next Commonwealth’s secretary general, says reparations could include non-traditional forms of payment, such as climate financing, the article adds. Politico quotes George Brandis, Australia’s former high commissioner to the UK, who says Charles was “very eager to see” Australia commit to a target of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 when he was Prince of Wales. He adds that days before COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, when Australia did announce the target, “Charles was delighted about that. He had made it pretty clear on a number of occasions that he was very much hoping that Australia would do that. In fact, as I read it, [he] was a bit impatient that we hadn’t done so until relatively late in the piece,” the article adds.

China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and seven other departments have released a work plan that sets next year as a target to “establish a national-level and provincial-level carbon reporting system, and emissions accounting standards” on “key” sectors, BJX News reports. It also aims for a “national emissions factor database to be completed and periodically updated”, and by 2030, “[the country’s] emissions accounting standards and rules further enhanced… to meet emissions control requirements at all levels”, the outlet adds. China News quotes an NDRC spokesperson describing the two stages in the plan: first, laying a “solid foundation” for the emissions data needed for the “dual control” of carbon during the 15th “five-year plan” (2026-30); and, second, building a “complete emissions accounting system” to support the country’s “dual carbon” goals. BJX News says in a separate analysis that the plan will “solve the problem of weak foundation and lack of emissions data at district level”, and “support the integration of industry emissions data”.

Meanwhile, China’s electricity consumption in the first three quarters of this year grew 7.9% year-on-year, faster than the GDP growth rate of 4.8% in the same period, state news agency Xinhua reports. The production and sales of new energy vehicles (EVs) in the country also grew 31.7% and 32.5%, respectively, with China taking on more than 70% of the world’s green shipbuilding orders, Xinhua cites the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in a separate report. Dianlian Xinmei, the social media account of China Electric Council has published an in-depth analysis of the coal-fired reform “in deep water”. 

Elsewhere, Xinhua publishes the full text of Kazan Declaration, a joint communique issued by BRICS leaders that “[reaffirmed] the importance of biodiversity conservation, including the implementation of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework”, a landmark agreement for global biodiversity conservation that is being reviewed at the COP16 biodiversity summit in Cali, Colombia. It says the leaders “[reiterated] that the objectives, principles and provisions of the UNFCCC [the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change], its Kyoto Protocol and its Paris Agreement… must be honoured… [condemned] unilateral measures introduced under the pretext of climate and environmental concerns, [and reiterated] our commitment to enhancing coordination on these issues”. They also “recall that the UNFCCC, including the annual COP sessions, is the primary and legitimate international forum to discuss the issue of climate change in all its dimensions”, the agency adds. In a speech at the 16th BRICs summit, president Xi Jinping said China is “willing to expand cooperation with BRICs countries in green industries”, according to state-run newspaper China Daily.

Finally, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post publishes an article under the title: “What caused an unexpected, record-breaking tidal event on China’s east coast?” And Jiemian News, a Shanghai-based digital news outlet, covers saltwater intrusion in China’s coastal cities and quotes Xu Xiaofeng, president of China Meteorological Service Association, saying that “as extreme weather becomes normalised, the frequency of such events will increase”.

Germany’s economy minister, Robert Habeck, has proposed a 10% state aid premium for industrial investments to boost the “struggling” economy and “ease the path to climate neutrality”, reports Clean Energy Wire (CLEW). Habeck emphasised that “climate-neutral modernisation and a sustainable industry require massive investments”, notes the outlet. The minister said that Germany is “falling behind” due to its “restrictive budget” compared to other nations. However, finance minister Christian Lindner stated that the idea of a “Germany fund” must first be verified for compliance with EU fiscal and state aid rules before further discussion, Reuters reports. It adds that the deputy leader of Free Democrats, Wolfgang Kubicki, said Habeck needed to state what the measure would cost current and future taxpayers. Meanwhile, Berliner Zeitung reports that Habeck’s ministry awarded more than €500m to a paper manufacturer in Hesse to aid its transition to “climate-friendly production”. However, the managing director of the papermill highlighted that they have to compete with French mills that use “CO2-free, low-cost nuclear power”, notes the newspaper.

Elsewhere in German media, Die Welt reports that the government has decided to build a “hydrogen core network” with projected costs of €19bn. Additionally, Süddeutsche Zeitung notes that Norwegian energy company Statkraft has been selected to negotiate a grant of up to €107m from the EU Innovation Fund for its planned hydrogen production in Germany. However, WirtschaftsWoche reports that less than 2% of planned hydrogen production capacities for 2030 have exceeded the planning stage, according to a Boston Consulting Group (BCG) study. BCG experts warn that Europe risks losing its competitive advantages in “green” hydrogen to foreign suppliers, particularly China, where most hydrogen projects are currently being built.

The Guardian’s global environment editor Jonathan Watts asks whether “abandoning hope” could help society tackle climate change. He notes that, while global leaders are “eager to fill us with positivity”, research shows “people in distress are more likely to take collective action”. He writes: “Climate instability and nature extinction are making the Earth an uglier, riskier and more uncertain place…Yet, apparently we must still have hope. It is mandatory. Change is impossible, we are told, without positive thinking and a belief in a better future. That is the message of just about every politician and business leader I have interviewed in close to two decades on the environment beat.” But what if hope is “the antidepressant that has been keeping us all comfortably numb when we have every right to be sad, worried, stirred to action or just plain angry?”, Watts says. He concludes: “If you are not alarmed at what is happening to the forests, oceans, ice-caps, cities, farms and supermarkets, then you are not paying enough attention. That may be due to fear, doubt or ignorance. Or perhaps you are enveloped in that insidious, complacent long-term form of hope that has been diverting our gaze, giving us pause, slowing action and normalising the degradation of our home planet. Essentially this can be boiled down to the fact that we are leaving our problems to our children. Where is the hope in that?”

In other comment, an editorial in the Wall Street Journal attacks Democratic presidential nominee and current US vice-president Kamala Harris on energy policy, claiming: “One reason voters feel they don’t know what Kamala Harris would do if elected is because she isn’t honest about what she believes”.

A new study finds that US production of materials, including asphalt, glass and cement, costs the climate nearly $80bn. Using reported scope 1 and scope 2 emissions, researchers estimate the externalised societal costs of materials production in the US. They note that, if climate costs were incorporated into the consumer costs of these materials, alternative materials with lower emissions may be more readily adopted by industries and consumers. They conclude: “Proper accounting for such disparities can be leveraged to drive breakthroughs in technologies used for our material resources and manufacturing.”