New analysis indicates that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will hit record levels this year, reports the Guardian. The Global Carbon Project (GCP) findings show that fossil fuel-related CO2 “is on course to rise by 1% to 36.6bn tonnes, the highest ever”, the paper says: “More burning of oil products is the biggest contributor, mostly because of the continuing rebound of international aviation after the pandemic.” The Financial Times explains that “if global emissions continue at today’s levels, the remaining carbon budget to limit warming below the 1.5C ideal under the Paris climate accord would be used up in just nine years, according to the report. Already global temperatures have risen at least 1.1C in the industrial era”. The Press Association quotes Prof Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter who led the study, who said: “This year we see yet another rise in global fossil fuel CO2 emissions, when we need a rapid decline…Leaders at COP27 will have to take meaningful action if we are to have any chance of limiting global warming close to 1.5C.”

Reuters explains that, this year, “CO2 output from China, the world’s biggest polluter, fell by 0.9% as Covid-19 lockdowns persisted. European emissions also decreased slightly”. It adds: “Emissions rose by 1.5% in the US and jumped by 6% in India, the world’s second and fourth-biggest emitters, respectively.” BBC News says that India’s emissions jump is down to a continuing increase in “its use of coal – the most polluting of fossil fuels”. It adds: “But Dr Kamya Choudhary, India policy fellow at London School of Economics, thinks this is a short-term measure to cope with the ongoing energy crisis. One of the report’s authors, Robbie Andrew, a senior researcher at CICERO, pointed out that even though developing countries like India are increasing their emissions quickly, they are still significantly lower per person than in Europe.” The Times notes that meeting the 1.5C goal “will require 2030 emissions to fall by 45% on 2010 levels”. It explains that GCP data shows “global emissions have grown at about 2% a year on average since 1960, before soaring to 3% in the 2000s as China boomed”, adding: “Since the financial crash, however, emissions have slowed to about 1% a year. Covid restrictions in 2020 led to a fall in emissions of about 5%, the sharpest drop since the second world war. They bounced back by more than 5% last year as economic stimulus took hold.” The Independent, New Scientist, Forbes, Bloomberg and New York Times all cover the findings, while Carbon Brief takes an in-depth look, co-written with Prof Friedlingstein.

The Biden administration yesterday proposed requiring all major federal contractors to set targets for reducing their emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, reports the Washington Post, in what the paper describes as “a significant step toward greening the government’s sprawling operations and one that could ripple across the US supply chain”. The rule would cover 85% of federal supply chain emissions, which “are more than double the emissions stemming from operating the government’s 300,000 buildings and 600,000 vehicles combined”, the paper says. It would also mandate that federal contractors publicly disclose their greenhouse gas emissions and the risks they face from climate change. The White House says the rule would make the US the first national government to require major suppliers to set climate goals aligned with the Paris Agreement, the paper reports. It quotes Shalanda Young – director of the Office of Management and Budget – saying in a statement: “As the world’s largest purchaser of goods and services, the federal government has a critical opportunity to leverage its spending power to help reduce climate risks and safeguard taxpayer dollars.“ The administration “plans to highlight” the proposal when President Biden arrives at COP27 today, the paper notes. The Hill also has the story.

Despite Biden’s climate policies, at COP27 he will “join a gathering where developing nations have spent all week excoriating the US and other industrialised nations for causing climate change and demanding reparations”, says the New York Times. But “with control of Congress still unclear after Tuesday’s midterm elections, there is little Biden can offer”, the paper says: “And even with Democrats in the majority on Capitol Hill, Biden has failed to make good on an earlier promise by the US to contribute to a fund to help poor nations.” The outlet notes that, last year, Biden pledged $11.4bn annually by 2024, but “he secured just $1bn toward that goal from a Congress controlled by Democrats” in 2021. Paul Bledsoe, a climate adviser under President Bill Clinton, tells the paper that the idea of the US paying climate reparations would be “an absolute political domestic disaster” and would “cripple” Biden’s 2024 re-election chances. Bledsoe said: “America is culturally incapable of meaningful reparations…Having not made them to Native Americans or African Americans, there is little to no chance they will be seriously considered regarding climate impacts to foreign nations. It’s a complete non-starter in our domestic politics.”Reuters reports that Republicans yesterday “edged closer” to securing a majority in the US House of Representatives “two days after Democrats staved off an anticipated ‘red wave’ of Republican gains in Tuesday’s midterm elections”. Bloomberg says that “persuading a Republican-controlled House to provide more [climate finance] will be a near-impossible political challenge”.

The Financial Times Energy Source newsletter says that the election results signal that Biden’s “clean energy and climate agenda has been validated by voters”, which “will give him credibility as he leans on other countries to do more to slash emissions”. However, Politico says that “Biden is flying to Egypt to take a victory lap on climate change – but he’s facing continued grumbling about US stinginess and the impending reality of weakened political power at home”. The Hill notes that Biden will give a “special address” on US efforts to reduce emissions and help the vulnerable build resilience to climate change. The outlet adds that Biden is also “expected to tout the investments in the Inflation Reduction Act” and “the signing of a global climate treaty aimed at cutting pollutants used in refrigeration”.

Finally, the Guardian reports that Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House of Representatives who “made a surprise appearance at COP27”, has accused Republicans of treating climate change as if “it’s all a hoax”.

The head of the UN Development Programme has warned that more than 50 of the world’s poorest developing countries are in danger of defaulting on their debt and becoming effectively bankrupt unless the west offers urgent assistance, the Guardian reports. It reports Achim Steiner saying at COP27: “There are currently 54 countries on our list [of those likely to default] and if we have more shocks – interest rates go up further, borrowing becomes more expensive, energy prices, food prices – it becomes almost inevitable that we will see a number of these economies unable to pay.“ It says he added that any such default “certainly will not help [climate] action…the issue of debt has now become such a big problem for so many developing economies that dealing with the debt crisis becomes a precondition for actually accelerating climate action”. Steiner warned that some developing countries were in danger of giving up on the UN climate talks if developed country governments failed to fulfil a longstanding promise to poor nations of $100bn (£86bn) a year in assistance, to help them cut greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of extreme weather, the paper explains. It quotes Steiner adding: “If COP27 does not deliver a convergent path on the $100bn, I think many developing countries will leave Sharm el-Sheikh at least thinking about their commitments to the global climate process…And I say that very deliberately, because it doesn’t mean they will stop doing things at home, which they are already doing.”

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s climate minister, Sherry Rehman, speaks to Reuters and warns that “dystopia has already come to our doorstep”. She said she supported the call by the US, UK and other countries to overhaul international financial institutions to better respond to the disasters expected as the atmosphere continues to warm, the newswire reports. The newswire quotes her saying: “There is a recognition [at COP27] that we are facing a new climate normal for the world…But there still isn’t a recognition that the financial system that’s been running the world … is not going to be able to bail out the millions that are dying and in need.” At the same time, Axel van Trotsenburg – the World Bank’s managing director of operations – tells Reuters at COP27 that the institution is ready to step up financing of action to tackle climate change in the world’s poorest countries, but needs fresh funds from wealthy donor countries to do so. It quotes him saying: “There is no money going to sub-Saharan Africa. Full stop…I would like to challenge everybody: Do more.” The outlet continues by reporting that the world’s biggest multi-lateral lender could make a “decisive contribution” to further scaling up climate finance, according to van Trotsenburg, but this depends on additional support from member countries: “That will cost something to the membership because without financial resources, you cannot make a difference.” Elsewhere, Climate Home News reports that “nations vulnerable to climate change have begun to publish ‘prosperity plans’, laying out what they want money to be spent on to stop climate change thwarting their economic development”.

In related comment, Frank Jotzo – professor at the Crawford School of Public Policy and director of the Centre for Climate Economics and Policy at the Australian National University – writes in the Guardian that “‘loss and damage’ finance for developing nations and domestic support for clean energy industries may be politically difficult – but they are necessary investments”. Taking a different view, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, world economy editor of the Daily Telegraph, has a piece entitled, “If COP27 becomes a forum for anti-western racketeering, it deserves to die.”

At COP27, countries representing more than half of the global economy will today specify “the steps they will take to help accelerate the low-carbon transition by cutting emissions in sectors including power, transport and steel”, reports Reuters. The US, Germany, Japan and Canada are among those to “back a set of 25 ‘Priority Actions’ that they aim to unveil by next year’s talks in Dubai”, the newswire says. It continues: “They hope that by collectively agreeing on a set of steps, for example agreeing a date to phase out gasoline-driven vehicles, they can send a clear signal to the market of policy direction that will encourage investors and companies to act. Originally established as the ‘Breakthrough Agenda’ at the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow, the Priority Actions also cover hydrogen and agriculture, with buildings and cement due to be added in 2023.” Nigel Topping, UN climate change high-level champion for the UK, is quoted saying that the Breakthrough Agenda “is the largest ever collaborative effort to drive down the cost of cutting emissions across power, transport, steel, hydrogen and agriculture, in line with the 1.5C trajectory”.

Meanwhile, Reuters also reports that UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has said it will “launch a public database of global methane leaks detected by space satellites – part of a new program to encourage companies and governments to curb emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas”. The system, dubbed MARS or Methane Alert and Response System, will build on a pledge signed by 119 countries since last year to cut methane emissions by 30% this decade, the newswire explains, adding: “The MARS system will rely on an existing network of space satellites to spot methane plumes around the globe, estimate how big they are, and identify the company or government responsible.” US special climate envoy John Kerry called the new system “critical” to climate efforts, the newswire reports, quoting him saying: “Cutting methane is the fastest opportunity to reduce warming and keep 1.5C within reach, and this new alert and response system is going to be a critical tool for helping all of us deliver on the Global Methane Pledge.”

Also at COP27, there is continuing coverage of the large number of delegates from fossil fuel industries at the summit. The Washington Post says that COP27 is “awash with fossil fuel representatives”, while BBC News says that BP chief executive Bernard Looney was registered as a delegate from Mauritania, a west African nation where BP has major investments. It adds that “four other BP employees are also included as part of the Mauritania team here”. A Guardian explainer notes that “protesters are not happy about this and have called for the ‘criminal’ fossil fuel representatives to be booted out of COP”. Reuters reports: “African nations must be allowed to develop their fossil fuel resources to help lift their people out of poverty, governments said at the COP27 talks in Egypt, which welcomed leaders of oil and gas companies sidelined at previous talks.”

Finally, Reuters unpacks “what to watch” at COP27 today, and the Climate Home News COP27 bulletin has all the details. Politico looks at why COP27 has been a “PR disaster” for Egypt.

The US, Japan and other countries will collectively offer a climate finance deal worth at least $15bn to help Indonesia shift away from coal-fired power, Bloomberg reports. According to “people familiar with the plans”, the “just energy transition partnership” (JETP) with Japan, the US and others “follows roughly a year of negotiations and could be announced as soon as Tuesday”, the outlet says. It adds: “The deal would enable Indonesia to accelerate efforts to shutter excess fossil fuel generation capacity, and to limit its pipeline of coal power projects, factors that are currently thwarting the development of renewable energy.” It explains that the agreement is “modelled after a similar $8.5bn climate finance deal for South Africa first outlined at last year’s UN climate summit, while talks are also under way on efforts to strike pacts for nations including Senegal and India”. However, it notes, “unlike the South African deal, which was hastily advanced at last year’s climate summit, the Indonesian JETP is the product of a full year of negotiations and the initial framework is more detailed, according to some of the people”. Reuters picks up the story.

US president Joe Biden will meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping “face-to-face on Monday, their first in-person encounter since Biden took office and one that will offer a clarifying opportunity for the world’s most important bilateral relationship”, reports CNN. It quotes White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre saying yesterday that “the leaders will discuss efforts to maintain and deepen lines of communication between the US and [China], responsibly manage competition and work together where our interests align, especially on transnational challenges that affect the international community”. A “senior” US administration official is quoted saying: “I don’t in any way think that the two leaders are going to sit down and be able to solve all their differences or problems…but I do think that we believe that some of these steps could be important along the way.” The US president also “plans to discuss areas where the two countries can cooperate, including on climate change”, the article highlights. Reuters, CNBC, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times also cover the scheduled meeting in Indonesia at the G20 summit.

Meanwhile, Voice of America quotes Scott Moore, director of China programmes and strategic initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania, on the topic of China saying at COP27 it would support, but not pay into a loss-and-damage fund: “There is a lot of legitimacy to the historic emissions argument. On the other hand, China, in particular, its emissions growth really just in the last 20, 25 years has been so enormous that its emissions are kind of starting to veer into a territory where you can argue that China is actually responsible for a significant share of cumulative emissions.”

In other news, CNBC reports that “fraying diplomatic tensions” between the US and China are a “big concern” at COP27. Carlos Pascual, senior vice president of global energy at S&P Global Commodity Insights, is quoted saying that tensions between the US and China “are going to have a cost on the global security agenda, the political agenda and the climate agenda”. CNN writes that the question now is whether COP27 can “provide the jolt of momentum needed to mend” the US and China’s climate change relationship. The US special climate envoy John Kerry told CNN on Thursday that he has been having “informal conversations” with his Chinese counterpart Xie this week, but that “we are not formally negotiating at this point”, the article notes.

Separately, Bloomberg notes that Belinda Schäpe, a climate diplomacy researcher at thinktank E3G, wrote on Twitter that China’s mention of Taiwan at COP27 shows how China “sees the interlinkages between climate and geopolitics”. It reports Taiwan’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Joanne Ou saying in a statement on Thursday: “The effectiveness of Taiwan’s environmental protection policies is obvious to all countries and has nothing to do with China…Taiwan’s goal to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 far exceeds China’s commitments on climate change.”

Elsewhere, the Shanghai-based financial outlet Yicai writes that China’s electric vehicle sales are “exploding thanks to a halving of the car purchase tax, better supply and the anticipation of rising fuel prices, and as a result they are eroding the market share held by fossil fuel-powered autos”, according to the “latest” data from China Passenger Car Association. Finally, Caixin Global reports that China’s biggest nickel trader has got the go-ahead to list in Hong Kong, raising funds to expand its production output as demand is set to continue growing along with sales of EVs.

National Grid expects there to be “sufficient generation” to avoid rolling power cuts this winter, reports the Guardian, with Britain’s supplies boosted by the return of a crucial electricity link to France that was hit by fire. It reports the company’s chief executive, John Pettigrew, saying yesterday that the mild weather so far this autumn was a positive for the energy picture: “What we have seen is pretty mild weather, which has led the Europeans to probably put more gas into storage than they originally anticipated. My understanding is the storage in Europe now is pretty much full.“ Last year the Sellindge converter station in Kent was forced to shut down a high-voltage cable that brings electricity from France after a huge fire, the paper notes, knocking out half of its 2,000 megawatt (MW) capacity. According to the paper, Pettigrew said 500MW would be restored this month and the remaining 500MW in December, adding: “So by the time we get to the peak of the winter, the full 2GW will be available from the French interconnector, which I’m delighted about.” National Grid also “reported a 50% rise in operating profits to £2.24bn in the six months to 30 September, buoyed up by extra revenues from its acquisition of the network operator Western Power Distribution”, the paper says, although “Pettigrew stressed that the company did not produce or sell energy and was not recording the windfall profits of some oil and gas producers”. The Times also has the story.

Meanwhile, the Guardian also reports that Labour has called for the energy security bill to be brought “back into the parliamentary timetable”. The bill was published in July with the aim of boosting domestic, low-carbon power supplies and bringing down energy costs, the paper explains, but “Jacob Rees-Mogg, then business secretary, in October put on hold the process of approving the legislation in order to prioritise legislation on this winter’s energy support package”. The paper says shadow energy minister, Alan Whitehead, has written to climate minister Graham Stuart and quotes the letter as saying: “It is highly irresponsible to have pulled this vital legislation”. Whitehead also said energy regulator Ofgem should be formally given a “net-zero remit” as part of the bill, the paper continues, quoting the letter adding: “I urge you to bring back the energy security bill, and work with us on amendments that will make it fit for purpose to help create an energy system that we so desperately need for our net-zero future.”

Elsewhere, the Times reports that British Gas owner Centrica “is to reward investors by buying back £250m of its own shares after high energy prices put it on course for a six-fold rise in net profits”. The paper continues: “The FTSE 100 energy group that runs Britain’s biggest energy supplier said it had benefited from strong output at its North Sea gas fields and its stake in the country’s nuclear plants, while its energy traders had performed ‘very well’. High gas and power output will have enabled the company to cash in on the high wholesale energy prices.” The share buyback scheme is the company’s first since 2014, says the Financial Times. Centrica acknowledged the “difficult environment facing many people” as they struggled with high energy bills, the paper notes, and said it would set aside another £25m to help customers this year on top of £25m already committed. The Guardian says the stronger profits “are likely to reignite the debate around an extension of the windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas operators and curbs on revenues for electricity generators”, adding: “The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is reportedly ready to toughen the levy in next week’s autumn statement.” City AM also has the story, while the Financial Times Lex column describes the firm as a “brave utility indeed”. It says: “The UK energy group’s customers are facing rising energy costs – partly paid for out of the public purse. It asks the government for support to refurbish the Rough gas storage field while earning pots of money from the commodity boom. Now it has decided to divert £250m of its bumper 2022 profits into buying back stock. Surely this waves a red rag to UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s windfall tax bull?”

During his speech at COP27 earlier this week, German chancellor Olaf Scholz proposed the idea of a “climate club” aimed at restructuring energy-intensive branches of industry to prevent distortions of competition on the market, reports Deutsche Welle. Scholz emphasised that the next “industrial revolution” is needed, says the article. It adds that he wants to lay the foundations for the climate club this year, which should “increase the prosperity of the participating states and create sustainable jobs”. However, as Ntv reports, climate campaigners said Germany must phase out oil, gas and coal “without any ifs or buts”. The outlet quotes the executive director of Greenpeace Germany, Martin Kaiser, saying that it is a “deception of the international community” if Scholz also wants to provide money for new gas fields in Africa that “are fuelling the climate crisis”. Germany plans to provide €‎170m for a “global shield” initiative launched by the G7 and finance ministers from the Climate Vulnerable Forum group of 58 developing countries, reports Reuters. It notes that the initiative aims to strengthen insurance and disaster protection finance. In addition, Clean Energy Wire reports that Germany will double its support to protect forests worldwide through the global forest finance pledge to €‎2bn by 2025.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports that soaring energy prices have forced German chemicals giant Evonik to use coal to keep producing. The FT quotes deputy chair of Evonik, Harald Schwager, saying that the power crisis is “very acute” for energy-intensive industries. Die Zeit covers research published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research, which shows that the production of the 300 most energy-intensive products alone accounts for almost 90% of the gas consumption in the German industry.

In other German news, Der Spiegel reports that the German government has introduced new rules for landlords and tenants relating to paying “CO2 taxes” for heating. Previously, only tenants paid them, which added around €67 for gas and €98 for heating oil annually to bills. The draft law suggests that the share landlords will pay will depend on how “climate-friendly” a building is.

Sir Keir Starmer has announced that a Labour government would lift the effective planning ban on new onshore wind farms in England as part of its plan to make the UK a clean energy superpower, the Press Association reports. During a visit to a wind farm in Grimsby, the newswire reports Starmer saying he would not hesitate to ditch the restrictions so that “we can create tens of thousands of good quality skilled jobs”, even if it “means some communities adapting to a new landscape”. Prime minister Rishi Sunak decided against lifting the de facto ban on the construction of new onshore wind turbines in England after his short-lived predecessor Liz Truss had said she would relax planning rules, the newswire explains. It says Starmer described the decision as a “national act of self-harm, choking off our economic potential”. Starmer instead pledged to tackle “nimbyism”, reports the Guardian, saying that his government “will not shy from taking head on the choice that has to be made” by easing planning restrictions for onshore wind turbines.

Protest group Just Stop Oil has said this morning that it is halting its protests on the M25 after causing days of widespread disruption on the major motorway circling London, reports Sky News. Its supporters have been climbing overhead gantries in several locations, forcing the police to close large sections of the road for safety while officers remove activists, the outlet explains. “From today, Just Stop Oil will halt its campaign of civil resistance on the M25. We are giving time to those in government who are in touch with reality to consider their responsibilities to this country at this time,” the group is quoted saying today: “We ask that the prime minister consider his statement at COP27, where he spoke of the catastrophic threat posed by the ravages of global heating, the 33 million people displaced by floods in Pakistan, and the moral and economic imperative to honour our pledges.” The outlet notes that the group did not say whether campaigners would resume action if their demands are not met. The Guardian, ITV News and Daily Telegraph all have the story.

Nonetheless, there is continuing reaction to the protests in UK newspapers. An editorial in the Sun says “it should now be obvious that it is crazy to free Just Stop Oil protesters on bail. They should be in custody pending trial”. A Daily Mail editorial agrees that Just Stop Oil activists are “exposing the absurdity of our witless criminal justice system”. It adds: “They’re arrested, charged and – invariably – bailed by the police or courts. Then, lo and behold, these pious, arrogant idiots head straight out and do it all over again.” MailOnline columnist and GB News presenter Dan Wootton takes a similarly line, suggesting Just Stop Oil’s “reckless criminality certainly meets” the definition of terrorism. He says that “these eco-extremists are wilfully blind to the fact the UK is leading the G7 in reducing our carbon emissions in what I believe is a deranged march to net-zero”, adding: “And I say that as an environmentalist who cares deeply about the future of the planet.” Conservative MP Esther McVey writes in the Daily Express that “eco-loonies” should be sent to China to protest there. She says: “So I’ve got an idea. Instead of paying reparations, we’ll send eco-loons like Roger Hallam to China and the other highest polluting parts of the world. Eco-warriors can become modern-day pilgrims spreading the word around the world, starting with China.”

In a feature for Bloomberg, global business reporter Ira Boudway and sustainability editor Eric Roston take a look at the claims that the imminent men’s football World Cup in Qatar is a “carbon-neutral event”. Qatar is not the first World Cup host to make such a claim – that distinction belongs to Germany in 2006, they write, “but as a tiny, oil-rich country on a desert peninsula in the Persian Gulf, its net-zero promise seemed to take greenwashing to a new extreme”. While the tournament’s organisers put the total emissions from the event at 3.6m tonnes, other independent researchers said it was nearer 6m tonnes – “roughly equivalent to a year’s worth of emissions from 750,000 US homes”, the article says. The “most glaring flaw in Qatar’s math…is an underestimate of the emissions associated with its stadium-building”, the piece notes: “In accounting for their carbon footprints, Qatar’s organisers anticipate that these stadiums will find meaningful use for decades to come and so assign them only a small fraction of the emissions associated with their construction.” Recent history “suggests this is a fantasy”, the authors write: “Many of the stadiums left over from World Cups in Russia, Brazil and South Africa are now white elephants – and all of those countries have populations many times greater than Qatar.” Even accepting this accounting, Qatar’s “plan to offset remaining World Cup emissions is also deeply flawed”, the article says. It explains: “So far, according to disclosures from the Global Carbon Council (GCC), which the tournament’s organisers helped create in order to identify and verify offsets, Qatar has purchased carbon credits from three renewable energy projects in Turkey and Serbia, totalling fewer than 350,000 tonnes of CO2 equivalent.” However, according to NGO Carbon Market Watch, those two wind farms and one hydro plant “would exist without the funding”, the article says.

New research finds that rainfall extremes are intensifying faster at sub-hourly timescales than at the more widely reported hourly or daily timescales. The authors use satellite data, measured down to the 10-minute scale over the past two decades, to assess rainfall trends near Sydney, Australia. They find that sub-hourly rainfall extremes have intensified by 20% over this time, “despite no evidence of trends at hourly or daily scales”. The authors note that the trend “does not appear to be associated with known natural variations”.

Universities that receive their primary funding from fossil fuels “are more favourable in their reports towards natural gas than towards renewable energy, and tweets are more favourable when they mention funders by name”, according to a new study. The authors examine the policy positioning of university-based energy centres towards natural gas, by conducting sentiment analysis on more than a million sentences in more than 1,700 reports from 26 universities. The authors conclude that centres with less dependence on fossil funding have a more neutral sentiment towards gas, favouring solar and hydro power.