The US Department of Energy has selected seven projects for a $7bn programme to launch new “hubs” for the development and production of hydrogen fuel, the Guardian reports. In an announcement on Friday, the White House said the programme will constitute a major boost to the country’s nascent clean hydrogen industry, helping it achieve its climate goals, the newspaper explains, adding: “The money will be awarded to proposed hydrogen projects on the Gulf Coast and in the mid-Atlantic, Appalachia, midwest, upper midwest, Pacific north-west and California. Dozens of regions competed for funds from the $7bn pot, set aside in the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law…The Department of Energy says it expects the funding to help cut 25m metric tonnes of CO2 emissions annually, the equivalent of removing 5.5m gasoline-powered vehicles from the road each year.” The grants are expected to generate more than $40bn in private investment and “create a national hydrogen economy”, says Reuters. US president Joe Biden and energy secretary Jennifer Granholm announced the funding at the Port of Philadelphia on Friday, with the president calling the move “transformational”, reports the New York Times. Biden added: “Clean hydrogen produced with resources like wind and solar, that lets us get us to this place where we’re not putting more carbon in the atmosphere…All across the country, from coast to coast, in the heartland, we’re going to build a clean-energy future here in America, not somewhere else.” Several fossil fuel companies were among those to win funding, notes the Financial Times: “The projects include $1.2bn to a hydrogen hub in Texas that counts oil supermajors ExxonMobil and Chevron as partners. A further $925m will be granted to a project running through West Virginia, and partnered with Marathon Petroleum and EQT. Both hubs are expected to produce the bulk of their hydrogen from fossil fuels and then capturing the emissions.” The newspaper adds: “The announcement risks attracting criticism from clean energy and environmental groups, which have pushed the Biden administration to avoid funding as many fossil fuel-based hydrogen projects as possible.” Axios says the move is “the largest US effort yet to spur production using renewables, nuclear energy or carbon capture”, but adds that “there’s a long and uncertain road to the projects becoming reality”. The Associated Press, Inside Climate News and CBS News also have the story.

The latest data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests there is a greater than 99% chance that 2023 will be the warmest year on record, reports Axios. The jump from a 47% chance at the end of July follows “months of hotter-than-normal weather”, the outlet says, including a September that was “the most unusually warm month ever recorded”. It quotes Dr Sarah Kapnick, NOAA’s chief scientist, who says: “Not only was it the warmest September on record, it was far and away the most atypically warm month of any in NOAA’s 174 years of climate keeping. To put it another way, September 2023 was warmer than the average July from 2001-10.” Axios adds that “when the year began, NOAA projected that 2023 would likely be a top-10 warmest year, but not at the top of the list”. 

A separate Axios article says the “pronounced and unexpected temperature spike” in recent months is “provoking unease among some of the most level-headed climate scientists”. It quotes Dr Kate Marvel, a senior climate scientist at Project Drawdown, who says: “The usual suspects – climate change plus El Niño – go a long way toward explaining the excess heat of this summer…[but] there is always the possibility that something is going on that we’ve missed, but the Earth system is a strange beast even when it’s not being disturbed”. The article notes that “changes in fuel mixtures for large marine vessels and weather patterns in the North Atlantic, are coming under scrutiny too”. Dr Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, tells the Washington Post that “it is indeed hard to give a good and informed answer to why this is happening – possibly for the first time”. Dr Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief’s climate science contributor, writes in the New York Times that the acceleration in warming “means that the effects of climate change we are already seeing – extreme heatwaves, wildfires, rainfall and sea level rise – will only grow more severe in the coming years”.

In related news, the i newspaper reports that global CO2 emissions are “forecast to rise by about 1% to a new record this year”. Dr Glen Peters of the Global Carbon Project, who carried out the analysis, tells the outlet that “it is more disappointing that fossil CO2 emissions continue to grow, rather than surprising”.

World Bank president Ajay Banga has laid out “ambitious plans” to widen the development lender’s mission to include climate change and other global crises, speed up decision-making and offer more – and cheaper – loans, reports Reuters. In his first major address since taking office on June, Banga said the changes would yield $157bn in new lending capacity over a decade, the newswire explains, and the bank “is looking for other ways to increase concessional finance for energy transitions for countries that use both its main lending arm for middle-income countries and its fund for low-income countries”. Speaking in a plenary session of World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meetings in Morocco, Banga said: “We’re investigating if we can reduce interest rates to incentivise exiting from coal as part of energy transitions.” The extra funding will support the implementation of the bank’s new vision statement, approved by its governing body on Thursday, says Climate Home News. The historical objective to “end poverty” should now be achieved “on a livable planet”, according to the vision, the outlet explains. Banga said of the change: “If you can’t breathe and cannot drink clean water, there is little point in eradicating poverty.”

Meanwhile, Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has suggested that rich countries should support the creation of $300bn of IMF special drawing rights (SDRs) each year to finance a global green transition in poorer countries, reports the Guardian. He said: “As the scale of climate change impresses itself more and more on us, we are going to need bolder things. When the time comes and we are frying and somebody says: ‘How do we get out of the frying pan?’, this [annual SDR allocations] is one way of doing so.”

The “threat of regional Mideast instability” amid the Israel-Gaza conflict has the potential to derail the COP28 UN climate summit taking place in Dubai next month, reports Axios. The outlet speaks to experts who warn that “a regional conflict has a greater potential to affect COP28 attendance and its likelihood of success, though it is too early to tell how this will play out”, it says: “One risk presented by the crisis is that it distracts governments, with some senior officials focused on the crucial run-up to COP28. This is when negotiating positions are usually solidified, and the so-called landing zones of a potential agreement clarified.” Kalee Kreider, president of the public affairs firm Ridgely Walsh, tells the outlet that “this war will affect the overall mindshare that can go into the talks. Days, nights, weekends of top people in government are going into addressing this crisis”. In addition, she says, “how many people will attend the talks now? I suspect we will see decisions made closer to time”. The conflict may also make it harder for wealthier countries to meet their climate finance commitments, says: “If finance is the underpinning for helping the talks to move forward, then one has to think that the number of resources going into the Middle East will change the equation…The math around foreign aid is getting recalculated.”

Meanwhile, Mark Carney, UN special envoy for climate action and finance, has warned that conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine, combined with high inflation, has thrown the world into an “age of uncertainty”, reports the Daily Telegraph. Speaking at an event at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Marrakesh, Morocco, Carney said: “There are huge fiscal pressures on all our governments – for defence, for health, retraining of workers…[an] ageing population. For climate, one of the big issues is going to be…carbon value for money. Because there are some quite high profile but exceptionally expensive initiatives that are happening right now, and governments around the world just don’t have the resources to do that. So they need to become much more disciplined about what they pursue in order to shift towards sustainability.”

City AM reports that oil markets are “rattled by fears of escalating conflict” in the Middle East, with the Financial Times noting that prices have moved “above $90 a barrel as concerns about a potential ground assault on Gaza added fresh tension to commodities markets”. A Reuters explainer says the conflict “poses one of the most significant geopolitical risks to oil markets since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year. Unlike Russia, one of the world’s top oil and gas producers, Israel has very modest energy production. But there is a risk the war could spread to major energy producers in the Middle East and affect oil and gas flows”.

In other COP28 news, Reuters reports that climate ministers from European Union countries are meeting today to decide the bloc’s negotiating position for this year’s summit, but “they are still split over some key issues, like how hard to push for a global deal to phase out fossil fuels”. A central decision will be whether countries at the COP agree for the first time to phase out fossil fuels, the newswire explains: “Around 10 of the EU’s 27 member countries including Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and Slovenia want the bloc to demand a phase out of all fossil fuels…A similar number – including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, Malta, Poland and Slovakia – are more cautious. They want a phase-out only of ‘unabated’ fossil fuels, leaving a window for countries to keep burning coal, gas and oil if they use technology to ‘abate’ – meaning capture – the resulting emissions.” The outlet notes that “EU countries must agree their negotiating position unanimously, meaning one government can block it”. Another Reuters article notes that India intends to continue resisting the push to fix a deadline for fossil fuel phase down and also favours shifting focus to reducing overall carbon emissions through “abatement and mitigation technologies”. The newswire speaks to several government officials who say India also wants to push developed nations to become carbon negative rather than carbon neutral by 2050. One source tells the outlet that “rich countries should become net-negative emitters before 2050 to enable the world to achieve the target of global net-zero by that year while allowing developing nations to use the available natural resources for growth”.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the UK government’s plans to weaken or abandon key parts of its climate policies will make it harder to reach net-zero, Agence France Presse reports. At the IMF-World Bank annual meetings, Laura Papi, deputy director of the IMF’s Europe department, told reporters that while the UK “has been at the forefront of global efforts to reduce global emissions…some of the measures that were recently implemented…make it more difficult for the UK to reach its targets”. She added: “It is important for the UK to stay the course in terms of climate policies and build on its successes.”

Meanwhile, Deborah Meaden, entrepreneur and panellist on the TV show Dragon’s Den, says the watering-down of net-zero pledges was a “wasted opportunity” for the UK, reports the Times. Speaking on a Times Radio podcast, Meaden warned that the government’s ambiguity on environmental policy was bad for business: “It changes on a daily basis. That’s a very difficult landscape to try and build an industry.” She added: “We have been leaders and it’s something we could be really proud of but I’m not sure where we are going…Are we for renewables? Are we trying to hit our targets? Do we care about nature? I’m really confused.” Bloomberg has a piece on “five ways the UK is falling behind on climate goals”. In contrast, another article in the Times reports on new polling that suggests people in Scotland “broadly support the prime minister’s plans to delay the timetable for achieving key net-zero targets”. 

In other UK news, the Daily Telegraph reports that the owners of the refinery that supplies much of Scotland and northern England’s petrol and diesel could be at risk of cutbacks or closure if the Labour party pushed ahead with plans to ban new oil and gas projects in the North Sea if it were to win power at the next general election. And the New Statesman looks at how Labour is “betting on the private sector for net-zero”.

Chinese president Xi Jinping said at a forum on 12 October that it is crucial to “consistently enhance pollution control” in key areas and advance solid measures for air and soil pollution prevention and control, reports BJX News. It cites a report by the state news agency Xinhua, titled, “Xi Jinping: Accelerating the establishment of a new energy system and promoting the integration of electricity generation, grid, storage and consumption”. The outlet adds that he also stressed that China should continue developing its “clean and efficient utilisation of coal” in order to maintain a “holistic approach”. Chinese energy site IN-EN.com covers the same story, adding that Xi highlighted that China should deepen integration of hydropower with new energy sources, “such as wind, solar and hydrogen power”. In its coverage, Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) focuses on Xi’s request that leaders of the Yangtze river economic belt “jointly” protect the environment and refrain from “mega projects” as they also pursue new growth from technological innovation. Separately, Xinhua reports that the Chinese ministry of ecology and environment recently said that there is an “urgent need” to use innovation to solve “challenges in pollution prevention and control”. Xinhua has also published a commentary by the MEE under its nom de plume “Zhong Huanping”, which says that China should support the creation of “ecological” technology to advance the development of “a beautiful China”. 

Meanwhile, Josep Borrell, high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy, has “warned China to address the gaping bilateral trade imbalance, or face more protectionist policies in Europe” in a comment article in the SCMP. Shanghai Securities News reports that Zhang Jianhua, director of the National Energy Administration (NEA), co-chaired the 11th China-EU energy dialogue in Beijing with Kadri Simson, European commissioner for energy, during which he expressed his willingness to cooperate with the EU on “energy security” and the “energy transition”. IN-EN.com publishes a commentary arguing that a “green trade bloc” may emerge if other developed economies also adopt the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), adding that this might be perceived as another policy tool in the “trade war”. 

Elsewhere, CGTN interviews Carlos Watson, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation’s representative to China, who states that China has “consistently made efforts ensuring agricultural and food security is the top national priority”, while making “strong political commitments to address climate change”.

Robert Habeck, the German minister of economy and climate action, “must build new gas power plants to ensure the electricity supply after the coal phase out”, reports Die Zeit, adding that it is currently “entirely unclear” how this will be achieved. The article explains that the German energy company EnBW plans to build a new gas power plant at the location of the coal-fired plant in Heilbronn, which is set to shut down in 2026. However, the campaign group Energiewende Heilbronn is determined to stop the construction. It spokesperson is quoted saying: “New gas power plants tie us to fossil fuels…In this way, the climate cannot be saved.” The outlet highlights that Germany has plans for nearly 50 new gas power plants in the coming years, with Heilbronn among the numerous proposed locations. It adds that Germany aims to achieve “climate neutrality” by 2045, with 80% of its electricity generated from renewables by 2030. Nevertheless, the country needs additional power plants, which would be “available as a backup when wind and solar power aren’t sufficient”. In addition, the outlet notes that Habeck is “struggling to receive approval” from the EU Commission to subsidise new gas power plants.

Meanwhile, Manager Magazin reports that the 140km West Coast power line, which connects Germany with “wind power-rich” Denmark, officially started operating on Saturday. The outlet explains that, in recent years, the northern German federal state Schleswig-Holstein has often produced “significantly more” wind energy than it has consumed, resulting in “costly shutdowns” of installations. Nordbayern notes that the impact of these transmission lines is already evident in the region’s increased number of onshore wind turbines. Schleswig-Holstein is the only federal state where shutdowns of onshore wind turbines have been decreasing, the outlet states. Stern adds that Germany is also building the multi-billion-dollar, 700km-long SuedLink power line, which includes a tunnel under the river Elbe to allow Germany’s south to benefit from wind-power capacities in the north. 

Finally, the Financial Times carries an article focuses on the current nuclear disputes between France and Germany, which have “opposing ideas about atomic energy, threatening the EU’s transition away from fossil fuels”.

Mark Gongloff, Bloomberg comment editor and columnist, writes on the two “closely connected” problems of climate change and inflation. Gongloff notes that a recent global survey of more than 30,000 people found that young people “care more about inflation than they do about climate change”. In some ways, this “makes total sense”, says Gongloff: “Though my memories of young adulthood are hazy, one lingering sensation is relentless financial dread. And today’s youths have it far worse than I ever did. College, healthcare and housing expenses have soared in recent decades, followed by food and other prices since the Covid pandemic. It’s tough to focus on the future of the climate when your stomach is grumbling and you’re not sure you can cover the rent.” And “the reality is that climate change and inflation are increasingly, inextricably linked”, Gongloff writes: “A hotter planet makes droughts, floods, heat waves and destructive storms more likely and more intense. Rainfall patterns change and diseases roam more widely. All of this in turn disrupts agriculture, construction, shipping, manufacturing and more. Natural disasters and rising sea levels will leave some parts of the country inhabitable only by the very wealthy, making affordable housing even more scarce. The pandemic’s inflationary supply-chain nightmares were just a preview of what may be in store.” Fending off the worst of climate change, and the inflation and disruption it brings, “won’t be cheap either, of course”, concludes Gongloff. But, he adds, “in the meantime it will generate economic growth, spur new technologies and industries and prevent even greater amounts of future death, destruction and – for some of us worst of all – inflation”.

Taking a different view, Jeremy Warner, assistant editor of the Daily Telegraph, says that the “new inflationary age” means “the green transition has been transformed by high [interest] rates into a dauntingly, and possibly ruinously, expensive endeavour which threatens to alienate voters and crowd out other spending priorities”. He writes: “Surging debt, high inflation, and weak growth prospects are causing governments ever more loudly to question the hitherto biblical status of their climate change commitments…When credit is abundant and money is cheap, it’s easy to treat emissions as the world’s most urgent issue, but when it is scarce and expensive, and geopolitical tensions are rising, the choices become much more difficult.”

Limiting global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels would leave the Asia-Pacific, Europe and the US “highly exposed to stranded assets, especially coal plants”, a new paper finds. “Listed owners may face stranded assets of up to 78% of their share price or more than 80% of their equity,” according to the study. The authors find that countries with high exposure to stranded assets generally have greater ownership of alternative energy assets. India stands out as an exception to this trend, as it owns many stranded assets but has little alternative energy, the paper finds.