The prime minister of Barbados Mia Motley has invited Donald Trump to a face-to-face meeting, to find “common ground” and persuade him climate action was “in his own interest”, reports the Guardian. Speaking to the newspaper at COP29 in Baku, Motley says: “Let us find a common purpose in saving the planet and saving livelihoods. We are human beings and we have the capacity to meet face-to-face, in spite of our differences. We want humanity to survive. And the evidence [of the climate crisis] we are seeing almost weekly now.” The US is planning to announce a stronger emissions reduction target, despite Trump’s imminent return to the White House, reports Politico. An announcement of a 2035 emissions reduction target – known as a nationally determined contribution (NDC) – would fulfil the US’s obligation under the Paris Agreement, the article notes. The plans are due by February, just after Trump – who has vowed to take the US out of the Paris Agreement – is set to take office, however, it adds. A separate piece in Politico highlights that while Trump is not at COP29, his “rapid-fire personnel moves to dismantle Joe Biden’s climate legacy are being felt there”. 

In other news, Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods has said that the US should not pull out of the Paris Agreement, reports the Wall Street Journal. Speaking to the publication, Wood said that pulling out of the international climate agreement for a second time would cause uncertainty and confuse efforts to tackle climate change. Wood adds: “I don’t think the stops and starts are the right thing for businesses. It is extremely inefficient. It creates a lot of uncertainty.”  

“France has in effect boycotted the COP29…after an attack by the host country president, laying bare a divide between the two nations at negotiations where guest lists are dominated by regional neighbours and oil and gas interests have been defended”, reports the Financial Times. In a leaders’ address, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev accused France of “brutally” suppressing climate change concerns in its Pacific island territories, the article continues. Aliyev claimed France had caused “environmental degradation” in these territories, which he described as “colonies”, pointing to nuclear tests in French Polynesia and Algeria, the FT adds. Aliyev further accused the “regime of President Macron” of killing and wounding citizens legitimately protesting in New Caledonia, the article notes. France’s top climate official Agnès Pannier-Runacher has pulled out of attending COP29 as a result, saying the remarks weaponised the fight against climate change for an “undignified” agenda, the article continues. Pannier-Runacher criticised Aliyev’s support of fossil fuels and called him “unworthy of a COP presidency,” the FT says. Aliyev’s “combative speech” drew “loud applause from delegates of some Pacific island nations”, reports Euractiv. 

Separately, Ali Karimli, the Azeri opposition leader has accused Aliyev of using the conference to “detract from his government’s human rights abuses and regressive climate policy”, reports the Times. There are “more than 300 political prisoners in the regime’s jails”, the article continues, while “dozens of dissidents, journalists and trade unionists were detained in the months leading up to COP29”. Bloomberg notes that Azerbaijan is a “risky place” for climate activists. “The government has faced criticism for stifling dissent, raising questions about its suitability to host the world’s most important climate summit”, the article says. 

In other COP29 news, Javier Milei’s government has decided to withdraw the Argentinian delegation from COP29, Climática reports. It adds that the reasoning was that the country does not want to “interfere with the consensus” of the conference. The outlet has interviewed Oscar Soria from Common Initiative, who says the country’s exit from this COP would be “suicidal” as it also needs climate finance. The move has added to concerns about the stability of the Paris Agreement following the election of Donald Trump, reports the Guardian. More than 80 Argentinian representatives are in Baku, Azerbaijan for the negotiations, the piece notes. It says “Argentina’s far-right leader has previously called the climate crisis a “socialist lie” and that during his election campaign last year he “threatened to withdraw from the Paris agreement, though he has since backed down”.

Finally, private jet arriving into Baku have more than doubled over the past week as global leaders and business people arrive for COP29, reports the Times. Data from the tracking website FlightRadar24 found that 65 private jets landed in the past week, of which 45 arrived on Sunday and Monday as the conference got underway, the article explains. The New York Times explores who the more than 50,000 people gathered in Baku for COP29 are in a graphics piece. (Similarly, Carbon Brief analysed the delegates earlier this week.) 

A new study has found that poor countries need $1tn a year in climate finance by 2030, five years earlier than countries are looking to agree at COP29, reports the Guardian. The Independent “high-level expert group on climate finance”, a group of leading economists, has warned that waiting until 2035 to receive the funding “would place damaging burdens on vulnerable countries”, the article says. A shortfall in investment before 2030 would increase pressure in the following years, “creating a steeper and potentially more costly path to climate stability”, reports the Hindustan Times. The report from the group warns that “the less the world achieves now, the more we will need to invest later”, the article adds. The report adds that the mobilisation of funds should be about $1.3tn by 2035, the article adds. A separate article in the Hindustan Times notes that a new draft of the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) has been released at COP29, after the first iteration was rejected by developing countries. (The draft text can be viewed in Carbon Brief’s interactive COP29 text tracker.)

In other COP29 news, Africa is positioning itself as “the hub of the future global market in pollution rights”, reports Le Monde. While the “rules [of a carbon market] aren’t yet fully written, but the race has already begun”, the article notes, with 10 countries having already signed agreements with industrialised nations. Separately, Australia is being urged to increase its climate goal after the UK announced an “ambitious 81% reduction target”, reports the Guardian. 

Despite an “aspirational” commitment by nations under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to no more than 1.5C, limited progress has been made in 2024 with current policies putting temperature rise on track for 2.7C by the end of the century, the Guardian reports. A new report from Climate Action Tracker has found that the expected level of global warming by the end of the century has not changed since 2021, it continues. The article quotes Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga from Climate Analytics, the lead author of the analysis, who says: “We have clearly failed to bend the curve.” When considering government pledges within estimates of warming, the level is slightly lower at 2.1C, but this level has not changed in three years, it states. The article continues that “warming in the most optimistic scenario rose slightly from 1.8C last year to 1.9C this year, the report found”. The report calculates that to halt climate change at a long-term average of 1.5C would require the US to “slash its emissions roughly 80% below 2005 levels by 2035. China would need to cut its emissions by two-thirds over the same time frame”, reports the New York Times. Additionally, India, Europe, Brazil, Japan and Australia would all have to make more significant cuts to emissions than they are currently planning, it adds.

The UK bank Natwest is continuing to lend to the oi-and-gas company BP, reports a joint investigation from Channel 4 News and the Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ). This is “despite having led the way on net-zero banking with a public pledge to only work with companies that have plans that align with the Paris Agreement”, notes Channel 4 News. Natwest is one of a series of banks with net-zero policies that have collectively helped raise $1tn for companies expanding fossil fuels, reports the TBIJ. Natwest “helped BP raise almost $500m last year in an apparent breach of its climate commitments”, the article notes. The company plans to further develop its Shafag-Asiman project, a “carbon bomb”, in Azerbaijan, host of COP climate talks, it continues. The Shafag-Asiman gas field could inject more than 1bn tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere, “more than the UK would emit over three years, striking a major blow to efforts to slow down global warming”, it adds.

Ding Xuexiang, China’s executive vice-premier, has called for “strengthening early warning systems for all and enhancing climate adaptation capacity” when addressing “a high-level meeting held by China on early warnings” during COP29, state news agency Xinhua reports. Ding stated that Chinese leader Xi Jinping has “made specific requirements on this issue”, the news agency adds. China has also launched an action plan on early warning for climate change adaptation during the meeting, Shanghai-based news outlet the Paper reports. Addressing the world leaders climate action summit, Ding said that dealing with climate change requires a “fundamental transformation in development models”, adding that funding and technology are “essential to enhance climate change resilience”, another Xinhua report says. Xinhua also publishes the full text of Ding’s address, including his announcement that “China has provided and mobilised more than 177bn yuan ($24.5bn) of project funds in support of other developing countries’ climate response”.

Separately, the Financial Times reports that Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin says that he hopes “co-operation on global climate action will continue to be enhanced” at a joint methane summit with the US. The Paper says that, at a meeting hosted by the Global Alliance of Universities on Climate in the China pavilion, Liu “expressed hope that the younger generation present would continue to practise low-carbon actions”. The state-supporting newspaper Global Times publishes an editorial saying that “humanity stands on the edge of a climate cliff” and developed countries should “genuinely address the long-neglected concerns of developing nations”. The state-run newspaper China Daily carries a comment article by the co-authors of a new Lancet report on health and climate change, arguing that climate change “increasingly” impacts “people’s health and the healthcare system” in China.

Meanwhile, Xinhua reports that China’s “total nuclear power generation capacity” ranks first globally, adding that the country now has 58 gigawatts of nuclear power in operation. China Daily reports that the “world’s first gigawatt-scale offshore solar power project” has been successfully connected to the grid, which will “reduce carbon dioxide emissions by more than 1.34m tonnes per year”. Dialogue Earth says that the suspension of the capacity replacement policy for China’s steel sector risks “stalling essential decarbonisation initiatives” for the industry.

Finally, ahead of the G20 summit in Brazil, Xi has said that China has always been a “member of the global south and will always belong to the developing world”, the state-run newspaper China Daily reports, adding Xi will “deliver an important speech” at the summit. 

Folha de São Paulo reports on Brazil’s new “nationally determined contributions” (NDC), or climate pledge under the Paris Agreement, highlighting that this is the first time the country has aimed to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. The document, presented by Brazil’s vice president Geraldo Alckmin and environment minister Marina Silva in Baku, also commits to reducing illegal logging and increasing emission reductions from 59% to 67% by 2035.

Meanwhile, Mexico has pledged to increase its NDC from 35 to 45% by 2030, says Excélsior. Other commitments include updating its national adaptation and mitigation plan, reactivating Mexico’s “inter-secretarial climate change commission”, increasing renewable energy production from 32% to 45%, and achieving net-zero emissions between 2050 and 2060, it explains.

Elsewhere, Colombia will advocate for the inclusion of “climate swaps” in the COP29 agenda, according to El Espectador. The newspaper highlights that the country allocates over 3% of its GDP to covering its sovereign debt, but, along with other Latin American countries, is calling for including debt swaps as financial instruments.

In the New York Times, David Wallace-Wells argues that Donald Trump’s election win is “a confirmation of an international turn in the politics of warming as much as it is a sharp or distinctly American break”. The climate logic of the energy transition “increasingly goes unspoken”, continues Wallace-Wells, as governments around the world trust in markets to deliver emissions reductions. The “global rightward wave”, as evident from Trump’s election, follows the pattern climate change economists have been “predicting for decades”, he concludes. 

In other COP29-focused comment, the Financial Times provides space for Laurence Tubiana, the chief executive of the European Climate Foundation (which funds Carbon Brief) and France’s special representative at COP21, to argue that “we don’t need the US to fight climate change”. She adds that “multilateral action has proven resilient before, and it must do so again”. Sky News’s science and technology editor Tom Clark says “there’s already a risk COP29 will end in failure – and damage of Trump 2.0 could yet spread”. In the New York Times, reporters David Gelles and Brad Plumer write that, even in these early days of COP29, negotiations are already on a “knife edge”. In the climate-sceptic Sun, business editor Ashley Armstong hits out at UK net-zero minister Ed Miliband’s “costly net-zero evangelicalism” as he attends COP29. 

Separately, global environment editor Jonathan Watts argues in the Guardian that “the climate crisis created the setting for Trump’s economy-first win and it’s the global south that will suffer most”. 

Dr Gavin Schmidt, a Nasa climate scientist, and Dr Zeke Hausfather, the climate research lead at Stripe, research scientist at Berkeley Earth and climate science contributor at Carbon Brief, explore in the New York Times why the Earth has been “considerably hotter even than climate scientists expected” over the past year. While “we know human activities are largely responsible for the long-term temperature increases”, the article states, “that there has been an “unusual jump in global temperatures starting in mid-2023 appears to be higher than our models predicted”. The article proposes a series of ways systems could be improved to explore shorter-term phenomena in the climate and how such improvements could be put to use. “The good news is that climate science could easily become more agile in understanding the rapid changes we are seeing in the real world, incorporating them into our projections of the future and, hopefully, reducing that uncertainty,” the article concludes. 

In other comment, the Times climate-sceptic columnist Juliet Samuel argues that heating plans in the UK show the “folly of net-zero ideology”. In the Daily Telegraph, columnist Jemima Lewis writes “the greens are sadly right: we need to eat less meat to save the planet”.

Plants and animals were worst affected by the 2019-20 Australian “megafires” in areas that were frequently or recently burned in the past, according to a new study. Analysing data on insects, plants and 2,200 other taxa across more than 1,000km in Australia, the researchers find that the fires had a small, but overall negative impact on the abundance and occurrence of species.

Reducing consumption levels in the top 10-20% of buyers could “generate huge environmental benefits”, according to a new study. The researchers analyse indicators on reaching planetary boundaries on climate change and other issues, alongside data on consumption and expenditure from 168 countries. They find that 31-91% of the planetary boundary breaching responsibility could be attributed to the world’s top 10% and 20% of consumers.