The first summer on record that melts nearly all of the floating sea ice in the Arctic could occur as early as the 2030s – about a decade sooner than researchers previously predicted – according to a new study covered in the New York Times.The research suggests that this outcome “could materialise even if nations manage to curb greenhouse gas emissions more decisively than they are currently doing”, compared to earlier projections which had found that stronger climate action might be enough to preserve the summer ice, the newspaper continues. The Guardian coverage of the research is headlined: “Too late now to save Arctic summer ice, climate scientists find.” It says the analysis shows that even if emissions are sharply reduced, the Arctic will be ice-free in September in coming decades. It says if emissions decline slowly or continue to rise, the first ice-free summer could be in the 2030s. The newspaper notes that the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report concluded that the Arctic would lose its summer ice in the 2040s “in intermediate and high emissions scenarios”. According to the Independent, the international team from South Korea, Canada and Germany used “satellite observations of Arctic sea ice over the last 40 years and the best climate models” and “were also able to attribute ice loss primarily to greenhouse gas emissions”. Prof Dirk Notz, an oceanographer at the University of Hamburg in Germany, who is one of the study authors and an IPCC report author, tells Bloomberg: “We basically are saying that it has become too late to save the Arctic summer sea ice.” Carbon Brief contributor Dr Zeke Hausfather writes a caveat on Twitter, noting that “the study still provides a best-estimate of ~2060 or so for the full summer”.

Meanwhile, in North America, BBC News reports that high-risk air quality warnings have been issued for millions of people due to ongoing wildfires in Canada. The article explains: “Canada continues to see a more active wildfire season than normal. Federal officials cautioned on Monday that this summer may bring Canada’s largest fires yet because of dry and hot conditions that are forecast for much of the season.”

There is continued coverage of UK Labour leader Keir Starmer’s plan to end the expansion of the nation’s oil-and-gas sector if his party wins power next year. Speaking at the GMB union’s conference in Brighton yesterday, Starmer said the nation must seize opportunities to boost green jobs or risk repeating the mistakes that were made when coal mines shut down, the Daily Mirror reports. According to the newspaper, the Labour leader said: “Oil and gas are going to be part of the mix for decades to come – into the 2050s.” However, it says he added that the UK needs to be in the mix for “the next generation of jobs” in renewables and nuclear energy. It quotes Starmer continuing: “What I will never let happen is a repeat of what happened in coal mining, where an industry came to an end and nobody had a plan for the future.” According to BBC News, the comments were prompted by a union delegate who asked what Starmer had to say to communities that would be “decimated” by the end of oil-and-gas production in the North Sea. The broadcaster says the Labour leader said there were “hundreds of thousands of jobs” to be created in renewable energy, including 50,000 in Scotland. [Recent estimates cited by government advisers the Climate Change Committee (CCC) concluded that, in total, around 15,000 oil-and-gas jobs will be lost in the UK’s net-zero transition, but up to 725,000 net new jobs could be created by 2030.] The Times notes that Starmer has faced criticism from the leadership of GMB, which represents energy-sector workers and is a key backer of Labour, over its fossil-fuel industry plans in recent days. In his address, the newspaper says he “sought to smooth tensions with the GMB union”. Sky News has a video of Starmer’s speech.

The wider response to Labour’s policy on ending new oil-and-gas licences also continues. Anas Sarwar, the leader of Scottish Labour, has said the controversial Rosebank oil-and-gas field would still go ahead under a Labour government if it is given approval, according to the Scotsman. The newspaper says Sarwar stated his party would “honour any licences that are granted”. The Daily Express reports that the activist group Just Stop Oil has issued a letter to Starmer asking him to make a public statement that he will “resign if the policy of no new oil and gas consents and licences – including the cancellation of the ruinous Rosebank project – is not enacted within six months of winning the next election”. City AM reports on analysis by consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie that concludes Labour’s plan for a “proper windfall tax” on fossil-fuel companies is placing £24.2bn of investment in new UK energy projects at risk. The piece states that “the Conservative government’s windfall tax has already angered many oil-and-gas firms, with several currently reconsidering their pipeline of UK projects”. The same article also cites polling that suggests Labour’s plan to ban new oil-and-gas projects has 40% support among British people, with only 32% opposed.

Finally, the Press Association reports that three adverts for oil giant Shell promoting its low-carbon products have been banned for failing to make any mention of its ongoing “large-scale” investment in oil and gas.

Under new plans to speed up the rollout of low-carbon power, Britain’s energy regulator Ofgem will be legally required to help with the push towards net-zero emissions, according to the Financial Times. This comes in the form of an amendment to the UK “energy bill”, updating Ofgem’s remit to reflect the nation’s legally-binding 2050 net-zero target, the newspaper explains. The change comes “amid concerns that [Ofgem’s] current remit is holding back the development of new wind turbines, cables and other measures”, the paper says. Meanwhile, Bloomberg covers a new report from the left-leaning thinktank the Institute for Public Policy Research that examines “how planning rules can slow renewable power development to an extent that could make climate targets impossible to reach”. The outlet says the report concludes that, on current trajectories, England would take 4,700 years to build enough onshore wind farms to support its 2050 net-zero target. Separately, BusinessGreen reports on findings by the Climate Change Committee (CCC) that the Welsh government has made “insufficient progress” on its emissions reduction targets. 

Elsewhere, the Daily Telegraph reports in a story trailed on its frontpage that Kemi Badenoch, the UK business secretary, has warned that her efforts to “scrap EU laws and make the nation more competitive are being thwarted” by the country’s net-zero target. According to the newspaper, Badenoch said that promises made by energy and net-zero secretary Grant Shapps to retain green laws were “in tension” with her mission to cut “red tape on businesses”.

Eastern European nations have failed to pick a host for next year’s COP29 climate negotiations due to conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and between Armenia and Azerbaijan, according to Climate Home News. At a group meeting during the climate talks taking place in the German city of Bonn, Bulgaria, Azerbaijan and Armenia each made the case for why they should host the annual summit, which rotates between the UN’s four regions each year, the article says. It notes that Russia’s representative said they would block any candidate from the EU. While Russia supported Armenia in that war, Azerbaijan is not in the EU, and as a result “one source with knowledge of the talks said that the Central Asian nation could be a compromise between the EU and Russia”, the article explains. A separate Climate Home News article reports that Turkey has declared its desire to host the COP31 climate talks in 2026, “kick-starting a competition with a joint bid by Australia and a yet-to-be-determined Pacific island nation”.

Speaking to the Guardian at the Bonn conference, Hoesung Lee, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has warned that overreliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology could lead the world to surpass climate tipping points. The newspaper reports that Lee said using CCS was “no free lunch” and that countries should be wary. In another interview on the Bonn sidelines, director general of the COP28 climate conference Majid Al Suwaidi has told Reuters that there is no conflict of interest in having Sultan al-Jaber, the chief executive of a United Arab Emirates (UAE) oil company, as the COP president this year. Al Suwaidi said the appointment would help move the process on from pure politics and engage the private sector.

The state media China Daily carries an “exclusive interview” with Erik Solheim, a former chief of the UN Environment Programme, who quotes Carbon Brief’s data on historic cumulative emissions to back his arguments. He says that: “The historical per capita carbon emissions of the US are eight times that of China, and 25 times that of India. But western media criticise China and India as if they were to blame for carbon emissions.” The article appears on the front page of China Daily’s print edition and is shared by state media outlet People’s Daily. 

Another China Daily article writes that according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China will “lead Asian natural gas demand to return to modest growth of around 3%” in 2023, the highest growth rate compared to other regions globally. The IEA says that the world’s “largest importer of natural gas”, China, is anticipated to increase its use of the hydrocarbon by 5-7% this year due to an economic rebound after the end of Covid-19. 

Meanwhile, CNN reports that senior officials from the US and China had “candid” and “productive” discussions on Monday in China. State Department principal deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel says that “bilateral issues discussed in Monday’s meeting included climate change”, the article adds. Argus Media reports that China’s statement at the opening plenary of the Bonn climate talks insists “any topics that have not been agreed upon cannot be discussed”. China further says that decisions made in meetings would lack legal significance, the article adds. 

Separately, the director of the China Atomic Energy Authority Zhang Kejian says that the Chinese government is committed to actively promoting the “safe and orderly development” of nuclear energy, reports Xinhua. He adds that nuclear energy is an important factor for achieving “green development” and constructing a new energy system in China at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors meeting in Vienna. China Youth Daily, a state-run newspaper, says that the “immediate priority” for promoting “new energy vehicles [EVs]” in rural areas is increasing the number of charging stations.

In other news, the state news agency Xinhua carries an interview with Maimunah Mohd Sharif, executive director of UN-Habitat, who says that the “strategic measures” that China has adopted to “green its cities” could inspire the global quest for “sustainable urbanisation, climate resilience and inclusive growth”. People’s Daily publishes a comment piece on  the state visit of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, titled “Countries in the global south can emulate China’s example to create sustainable development”. Another Xinhua commentary says that China, as an “active proponent in the signing, effecting, and implementation of the Paris Agreement”, strives to achieve the “dual carbon” targets, which are viewed as “essential to the country’s new development philosophy and key to building a new pattern of development and promoting high-quality development”.

The Japanese government intends to invest 15tn yen ($107.5bn) over the next 15 years to supply the country with hydrogen as part of its efforts to “shift to a low carbon economy”, Reuters reports. The newswire notes that Japan’s initial hydrogen strategy, published in 2017, included a target for the nation’s hydrogen supply to reach 3m tonnes annually by 2030, up from 2m tonnes. It adds that a new target aims for 12m tonnes annually by 2040 and 20m tonnes by 2050. Kyodo News says the government “hopes companies will be encouraged to get more actively involved in hydrogen initiatives, with the aim of realising the commercialization of hydrogen power generation by 2030”. Japan Today notes that “so far, Japan is relying on hydrogen mainly produced using fossil fuels” and says the nation’s wider decarbonisation strategy “centres on using so-called clean coal, hydrogen and nuclear energy to bridge its transition to renewable energy”. However, it says one of the strategic areas that the government will focus on in its new plan is the development of water electrolysis equipment, which means generating hydrogen using electricity rather than gas.

The Guardian has an editorial praising the UK opposition Labour Party’s strategy to invest heavily in the green economy, stating that the plans “go with, rather than against, the grain of market sentiment”. The paper refers to a front-page headline in the Daily Mail that read: “Families face £1,000 a year bill for Labour eco plans”. The Guardian editorial continues: “Placing a speculative price tag on Labour party spending plans is, of course, a time-honoured pre-election manoeuvre by Conservative governments.” The article argues that the UK is lagging behind the US and EU when it comes to public investment in the low-carbon transition and says the current Conservative government has not proposed an industrial strategy that is up to the challenge ahead. Citing concerns from the GMB union about the loss of fossil-fuel sector jobs under Keir Starmer’s proposals to end new oil-and-gas extraction, the editorial continues: “The gradual transition away from fossil fuel production must be accompanied by a focus on transferable skills that can be deployed in carbon capture storage and a thriving hydrogen sector.” In the Independent, associate editor Sean O’Grady asks: “Are Labour’s climate policies sustainable enough to win an election?”

Meanwhile, Financial Times political editor George Parker writes that “Labour’s own version of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act” may “stretch its economic promises”. He explains: “Starmer and Rachel Reeves, shadow chancellor, are starting to sound a bit worried that they have been a bit too radical in this regard; the green prosperity plan, after all, was announced in September 2021 when interest rates were at 0.1 per cent.” As UK prime minister Rishi Sunak prepared to visit the US, the Conservative “net-zero tsar” Chris Skidmore has an article in the Times stating that the trip is the perfect opportunity “to establish the green special relationship that both our nations can prosper from”.

Meanwhile, there is more criticism aimed at Starmer’s fossil fuel plans by the UK’s right-leaning media. The Sun has its latest editorial criticising the opposition leader, who it says is waving “the white flag to a motley band of road-blocking eco ­vandals waging war on working people” – referring to Just Stop Oil. A Daily Mail editorial also takes aim at Starmer, pointing to the GMB union taking issue with his plans to end new oil-and-gas production and noting “it’s not every day that the Mail and the trade unions are in full agreement”. Tom Harris, a former Labour MP, writes in the Daily Telegraph that Starmer risks alienating his base – referring to trade unionists – in favour of satisfying young people and climate activists. “But those young, privileged, middle class campaigners who seem to spend all their free time being angry are never going to be assuaged”, he writes. [Polling cited above suggests that 44% of Labour voters support the plans to stop new oil-and-gas extraction, against 28% that oppose them.] 

The response to an inaccurate article penned by British comedy actor Rowan Atkinson for the Guardian, claiming to feel “duped” about the environmental credentials of electric cars, continues into its fourth day. The Washington Post has a piece debunking the claims made by Atkinson in the article, which cites analysis published by Carbon Brief back in 2019 about the lifetime emissions of electric vehicles. It makes the comparison with Atkinson’s claims and says: “A more honest accounting, by Carbon Brief, shows that driving a Nissan Leaf EV in 2019 generated at least three times fewer lifetime emissions per kilometre compared to an average conventional car.” The Canary also reports on the backlash to the story, with an article headlined “Guardian has ‘Mr Bean moment’ with Atkinson electric vehicle article”. It notes that “a number of climate, energy and car specialists have pulled him up on his facts and sources”, again pointing to Carbon Brief and senior policy editor Simon Evans’ tweets on the subject. The Energy Mix has published a similar article, which also cites Evans’s tweets. In the Daily Telegraph, meanwhile, world economy editor  Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has a comment piece titled: “Rest easy, Mr Bean – you are a climate hero.” He lauds Atkinson for trying to help British people “trying to navigate the moral minefield of lithium, cobalt and rare earth extraction”. He continues: “Many Telegraph readers share his doubts, struggling to sort out what is true and what is untrue in a polarised debate contaminated by ideological wokery, Putin’s bots, and the culture war. They are intelligent, well-informed people.” Ultimately, he congratulates Atkinson as a member of the “well-meaning rich” who, in buying an electric car at an early stage, have “provided the critical mass of buyers needed to get over the hump and reach manufacturing and technological takeoff”.

Separately, the Guardian has a comment piece from Ben Lane, co-founder of Zapmap, a UK-wide map of electric car charging points, in which he says that “arguments over the green credentials of electric cars are already over”.

A new study suggests the Arctic Ocean could experience an unprecedented sea ice-free summer around a decade earlier than expected, even under a low emissions scenario. The researchers carry out an attribution analysis of the decline in Arctic sea ice area observed over the past 41 years, a trend which they say is, on average, underestimated in the latest generation of climate models. Scaling the response of sea ice in the models to best match observations suggests that the first sea-ice free year – defined as the first year with sea ice covering an area less than 1,000,000 square kilometres – will occur as early as the 2030s–2050s, compared to around the 2050s-2060s in climate models.

The weather regime that brings the coldest weather to a large part of northern Europe is warming the fastest, according to new research. The weather regime which is typically associated with bringing cold air masses from the Arctic to northern Europe (negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation) has warmed about 25% faster than the cold-season days, on average. In contrast, the study finds that the weather regime that typically brings the warmest weather has warmed the slowest, especially in continental Europe. This asymmetry provides a fresh perspective on how temperatures vary within seasons as the climate warms.