Daily Briefing |
TODAY'S CLIMATE AND ENERGY HEADLINES
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Every weekday morning, in time for your morning coffee, Carbon Brief sends out a free email known as the “Daily Briefing” to thousands of subscribers around the world. The email is a digest of the past 24 hours of media coverage related to climate change and energy, as well as our pick of the key studies published in peer-reviewed journals.
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Today's climate and energy headlines:
- Annual report finds climate change destabilising Arctic
- Deadly US tornadoes to cost insurers up to $5bn
- Global warming of 3C could cost $1.6tn a year in lost labour
- HSBC says clients must have plan to exit coal by end-2023
- EU to unveil part two of climate change policy overhaul
- Gas crisis fuels call for UK to update energy security policy
- US: Activists tout climate savings to fight debt fears on Biden plan
- FT Person of the Year: Elon Musk
- With Shell’s exit from Cambo, North Sea oil’s economics are slipping away
- Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world
- Tipping point dynamics in global land use
News.
There is widespread reporting of the annual “Arctic Report Card” from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which, according to the Hill, says the region is being destabilised by climate change. The outlet says that Arctic sea ice volume saw its lowest recorded level in April, with multiyear sea ice at its second-lowest level. It adds: “The report comes the same day the World Meteorological Organization [WMO] certified a record-high Arctic temperature last summer.” The New York Times reports: “Across the icy dome that crowns the Earth, rising temperatures are turning the tundra greener and more lush. Beavers are expanding their range. Garbage from passing ships is fouling the shores. Wildfires are scorching the once permanently frozen lands of Siberia.” It says the report card was the work of more than 110 scientists from 12 nations. CNN says the Arctic is “changing profoundly”, according to the report. Reuters also has the story. The Washington Post covers the Arctic report card with news of research on the Thwaites glacier in the Antarctic, under the headline: “Climate change has destabilised the Earth’s poles, putting the rest of the planet in peril.”
Meanwhile, several publications pick up the confirmation of a 38C heatwave in Siberia last year, with BBC News among those picking up a quote from the WMO saying the temperature was “more befitting the Mediterranean than the Arctic”. The broadcaster says: “It is the first time the agency has included the Arctic Circle in its archive of extreme weather reports.” The Times, the Independent and the Hill also have the story.
There is continuing coverage of last week’s deadly tornadoes in the US, which, according to Reuters, could see $5bn in costs for the insurance industry, according to “industry experts”. It cites rating agency Fitch saying that insured losses could reach $5bn, which would be lower than “Winter Storm Uri and Hurricane Ida, both of which saw losses of $15bn and $40bn, respectively”. According to the agency, extreme weather insurance losses “will likely…[reach] the largest annual total in the US since the 2017 record year (approximately $130bn)”, Reuters says. It adds: “This will add to reinsurers’ push for rate hikes at the January 2022 pricing renewals and beyond as they absorb losses from another weather event and react to concerns about the negative impact from climate change, Fitch said.” The Independent says “more tornadoes may be on the way to devastated towns”, according to forecasters. BBC Reality Check asks if “climate change [is] to blame” for the tornadoes, noting that such events are “extremely unusual” in December in the US. It says tornado “clusters” are becoming more likely but cites one meteorologist saying “there is no scientific consensus” on a link to warming, unlike for heatwaves and heavy rainfall. ABC News has an article titled: “What we know about the connection between tornadoes and climate change.” It quotes its meteorologist saying: “We know for sure [climate change] impacts floods, it impacts wildfires, certainly drought and heat waves, and in some cases, hurricanes. But we’re just not sure about severe weather and tornadoes.” The broadcaster adds: “One major issue in studying tornadoes, according to ABC News chief meteorologist Ginger Zee, is that we only have about 35 years of modern data. Reliable radar wasn’t widespread until the late 1980s and the 1950s is when prolific reporting began.” Inside Climate News says warming “can set the stage for deadly tornadoes” and adds that the latest IPCC report “affirmed an increase in US tornado clusters”.
Separately, the Independent reports that Southern California was “brac[ing] for mudslides” and flash flooding as it faced “potentially its biggest storm of the year” yesterday. The Hill says heavy rain has hit the “drought-stricken” state, triggering “evacuations, rescues”.
Labour productivity losses could reach $1.6tn a year if global warming reaches 3C, according to a new study covered by the Thomson Reuters Foundation. Citing the new research, it says that at that level of warming “even the coolest hours of the day start posing major health risks to workers around the world”. Reuters continues: “Those most threatened will be outdoor workers in already-hot countries where temperatures and humidity are rising fast.” It adds that the global economy “already loses up to $311bn per year as workers struggle in hot, humid weather…today’s adaptation tactic of moving outdoor work earlier or later in the day would be far less effective [at 3C], the study said, as all hours would become too hot”. The Indian Express reports: “Global warming will cause labour losses most acutely in the tropics and countries like India, China, Pakistan and Indonesia are expected to experience the largest population-weighted labour and economic losses,” according to the new paper. BusinessGreen also has the story, saying that, on a per-capita basis, 14 smaller countries could face the biggest losses, including Bangladesh, Thailand, Qatar, Senegal, Ghana and Togo.
Banking giant HSBC, described as “Europe’s leading banker to corporate Asia”, has set out its policy on finance for thermal coal for electricity generation, reports a Reuters “exclusive”. The bank “said it expected all its clients to have a plan in place to exit the fossil fuel by the end of 2023”, the newswire says, adding: “Under its plan, HSBC will cut exposure to thermal coal financing by at least 25% by 2025 and 50% by 2030, although non-EU or non-OECD-based clients could be funded until a global phase-out by 2040, its sustainability chief told Reuters.” The move follows similar statements on coal mining and coal-fired power stations, Reuters explains, noting that while the fact it has policies on coal phase-out had been welcomed, the ShareAction campaign group said it “lacks the urgency and rigour required to avert the climate crisis”. The newswire says: “While peers including Standard Chartered and Natwest have set tougher targets, HSBC is more exposed to energy clients with a heavy reliance on coal and says it needs to work with them to help them shift to greener energy.” The Times picks up Reuters story.
In other coal news, Reuters reports that South African regulators have rejected a request for exemptions from pollution rules, with state utility firm Eskom saying the decision “would force it to immediately shut down 16,000 megawatts (MW) of [coal-fired] capacity”. It adds that this is about a third of the country’s total.
The European Commission is set to outline proposals today on gas, methane emissions and buildings, Reuters reports, in what it calls “a second, smaller set of regulations” in the “Fit for 55” climate policy package. It reports: “The proposed measures due on Wednesday include a reform of EU gas markets, aimed at integrating low-carbon gases such as hydrogen into the network…[A]nother proposal would force oil and gas operators in the EU to find and fix leaks of methane…A third proposal would take aim at buildings, and is expected to require EU countries to renovate millions of their buildings this decade to save energy.” The Guardian says the EU has been “urged to ratchet up green energy standards for buildings”. Separately, Reuters reports protests over French efforts to get nuclear energy included in the EU’s “rulebook on climate friendly investments”, known as the green finance taxonomy.
Record high gas prices show the UK is “relying on an outdated energy security policy”, the Guardian reports, picking up new findings from the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC). The paper quotes one of the report authors saying: “Reaching net-zero will transform the way we produce and use energy but as we go through this transition we need gas by design, not the assumed position of gas by default.” It adds: “The UK’s energy regulator, Ofgem, is poised to set out a series of new proposals to address the energy supply market crisis on Wednesday morning including tough new financial standards for energy suppliers and changes to the UK’s cap on standard energy tariffs.” The Times reports on Ofgem’s “pledge[] to get tougher on suppliers”. Writing in the Financial Times, Ofgem chief executive Jonathan Brearley says the regulator “need[s] to go much further in regulating energy suppliers”. He adds: “Companies must change their business models in order to manage risk as gas prices rise.” Brearley says: “We need a regime that can enable a sustainable market in order to promote our transition to net-zero.” He adds: “We will never be able to shield consumers from the full impact of wholesale energy price rises, and we do expect these to be passed through to bills in April, which will be extremely worrying for customers already under financial pressure. We will do everything in our power to help manage this situation. However, with tighter, tougher regulation we can put the retail energy market in a more resilient position and so leave it better able to withstand price volatility. A strengthened and more robust infrastructure will help us on our way towards a net-zero future.”
Separately, Bloomberg reports that Sembcorp Industries plans to build “the UK’s biggest battery on the northeast coast of England”. The publication says the 360 megawatt (MW) scheme will be built near a “major cluster of offshore windfarms” and its first phase is due to be completed by 2023, with the firm having a total of almost 500MW in its UK pipeline. BusinessGreen also has the story, calling it Europe’s largest battery project. Reuters says Spain plans to invest €6.9bn in “renewables, green hydrogen [and] energy storage”. Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports that two firms plan to build “Europe’s biggest lithium plant” in Portugal, targeting “35,000 tonnes of battery-grade lithium hydroxide”.
Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports: “Europe’s energy crunch is straining budgets as governments boost spending to help consumers and companies weather a spike in heating and electricity costs that risks extending beyond the winter.” It adds: “The EU’s longer-term plan to ease the pain for consumers and businesses has been set – tougher energy-storage rules to ensure higher reserves for the heating season and, later, a shift away from imported fossil fuels to domestically produced renewable sources.”
Lower climate costs due to reduced flooding, extreme heat and extreme storms should outweigh concerns over the debt impact of the $2tn Biden plan says green groups and Democratic strategists, reports Bloomberg. It says efforts to pass the plan “are running into the debt and deficit concerns of Senator Joe Manchin, whose support is critical for enactment”. Another Bloomberg article reports that the $2tn plan will not be sufficient, on its own, to meet President Biden’s climate pledge for 2030, according to the World Resources Institute. Separately, a comment in the New York Times by columnist Paul Krugman says Biden’s “Build Back Better” plan “is resting on a political knife edge”. He writes: “To make it through Congress it will have to weather a perfect storm of bad faith, bad logic and bad arithmetic.” Krugman says of aid for disadvantaged children: “The benefits are so large that even in a narrowly fiscal sense, aid to children may well pay for itself over the long run”. He adds: “The same is true for environmental investment. Most discussion of such investment focuses on the long-run mitigation of climate change, and rightly so: The prospect of civilisational collapse does tend to focus the mind. It’s important to note, however, that reducing our dependence on fossil fuels wouldn’t just reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. It would also reduce other forms of pollution, notably nitrogen oxides and sulphur, that have negative effects on death rates, illness and crop yields.” He concludes: “Claims that we should let this opportunity pass out of concern over fiscal responsibility or inflation are uninformed at best, dishonest at worst.”
In other news from the US, Reuters reports that New York City is to ban gas connections in new buildings. And Associated Press says US officials are “ey[ing] fuel supply for advanced nuclear reactors”.
Comment.
In a “big read” on its “person of the year”, the Financial Times says “controversial Tesla chief executive [Elon Musk] has triggered a historic shift in the auto industry towards electric vehicles”. It notes that it now almost a decade since the firm released its Model S luxury electric car and four years since its Model 3 came to a wider market. It continues: “This year has brought a measure of vindication, as companies ranging from Ford to Volkswagen to Mercedes-Benz have unequivocally committed their futures to electric vehicles. Toyota became the latest on Tuesday, announcing a $35bn investment into buildings EVs.” The piece says: “Musk believes climate change activists helped to nudge carmakers towards more sustainable technology. But he claims there is one overriding reason they are finally ready to go electric: ‘Until we started taking market share from them in a meaningful way, they didn’t react.’”
Elsewhere, the New York Times is among those reporting that Toyota has outlined “plans to expand sales of electric vehicles”. The paper says the world’s biggest carmarker hopes EVs will make up a third of sales by the end of the decade. It adds: “[Akio] Toyoda [the firm’s president], who has been criticised by environmentalists for the company’s resistance to electric cars, indicated that Toyota is still not ready to go all-in on electric vehicles. The company will continue to sell hybrids and fossil fuel-powered models because not every region has electric vehicle chargers and related infrastructure, he said.” In related comment, Daily Telegraph associate editor and columnist Ben Wright writes under the headline: “Electric car revolution will stay stuck in the slow lane without more charging competition.” He argues the UK needs “far more EV charging points and a variety of players in the market is the best way to reach that destination”.
In a comment for City AM, climate and energy writer Richard Black says the Cambo oil field has been left with a “black hole in its budget after Shell pulled out its investment in the project”. The move, he says, “raises the question of what the rationale might be for continuing development in the North Sea”. Black explores the meaning of the current policy that requires “maximum economic recovery” of oil and asks “economically maximum for whom?”, given that “North Sea oil and gas has been borderline uneconomic for several years” in the UK as a whole.
Science.
New research explores how outdoor workers could adapt to rising global temperatures by moving their working hours from the middle of the day to cooler times. Using reanalysis data, the authors show that, in the current climate, “approximately 30% of global heavy labour losses in the workday could be recovered by moving labour from the hottest hours of the day”. However, they also find that the potential of this particular work shift change is “lost at a rate of about 2% per degree of global warming as early morning heat exposure rises to unsafe levels for continuous work, with worker productivity losses accelerating under higher warming levels”.
A new study finds evidence for an “economic tipping point” in human-caused land use change, where it intensifies with economic development at low income levels, then reverses after incomes reach a critical threshold. Using gridded datasets to study long-term global land use change from 1780 to 2010, the researchers find that cropland peaks at around $5,000 GDP per capita and then declines. The reversal “emerges from a variety of divergent land use pathways”, the authors say, “in particular the expansion of protected areas and a reduction in land use lock-in”.