Will the UK’s energy system in 2030 be dominated by gas, coal with carbon capture and storage or many more solar parks and windfarms? Environment ministers from across the EU will hold talks tomorrow that will begin to answer those questions.

They are due to discuss the EU’s 2030 climate and energy package. This will shape energy investment in the UK for the next 15 years and define the EU’s negotiating position at UN talks due to agree a global climate deal in 2015.

Back in January the European Commission proposed that the EU should cut its emissions by 40 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. It also suggested the EU should aim to get 27 per cent of its energy from renewable sources by 2030.

But many member states disagree with these goals. Tomorrow’s meeting is a chance for ministers to explain their top priorities for the 2030 package.

The UK’s position, for instance has evolved radically since January. At first it said it wanted a more ambitious emissions reduction target of 50 per cent and was bitterly opposed to any renewable energy targets. Ministers say they want the market to decide on the cheapest way to cut carbon.

Then, in March, the UK relented and said it could support a renewables target as long as it wasn’t binding on member states. The compromise was part of a deal reached among 13 member including the UK, Germany and France. This compromise saw the likes of Germany drop their support for renewable energy targets that are binding on each member state.

Member states from the eastern part of the EU on the other hand are much more concerned by costs and the threat to their energy security posed by the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

European Commission figures suggest Hungary, Bulgaria and Poland would need to spend over 0.4 per cent of GDP every year to 2030 to meet the commission’s preferred 40 per cent greenhouse gas reduction target. UK and average EU costs would be just 0.21 per cent.

In a statement published last week, seven eastern member states including Poland and the Czech Republic said they would be disproportionately hit by the European Commission proposals. They want to be compensated for this “excessive burden”.

Meanwhile EU heads of state are agreed that the Ukraine crisis is a good excuse to increase energy security by reducing reliance on imports of Russian gas. The European Commission is working on an EU energy security plan that will consider this.

Almost a third of EU gas arrives from Russia and half of that is delivered by trans-Ukrainian pipelines. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk says the solution is more coal. He wrote in the Financial Times last month:

“In the EU’s eastern states, Poland among them, coal is synonymous with energy security.”

Member states will also discuss how much they are willing to contribute to the overall EU emissions reduction target. Contributions could be divvied up according to per capita incomes, according to the most cost-effective path to meeting targets, according to a goal of equal per capita emissions in 2050 or according to a complex combination of factors.

Either way no decisions will be made until later this year. EU member states have agreed the 2030 package should be sealed by October at the latest. The lack of agreement so far means an early deal is unlikely.