Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

China Briefing handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight.
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Key developments

China’s emissions flat in Q3

Q3 ANALYSIS: Citing official and commercial data, analysis for Carbon Brief by Lauri Myllyvirta at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found that China’s emissions “stayed at, or just below, last year’s levels” in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024. The analysis explained that rapid electricity demand growth caused a coal-power rebound, but this was offset by falling demand for oil, steel and cement, along with weak consumer spending due to the sluggish economy. After a rise in Q1 and a decrease in Q2, the latest trends mean China’s overall emissions in 2024 would fall if there is a drop of at least 2% in the final quarter, the analysis found. It said this looked likely, but that recent economic stimulus creates uncertainty around the outlook. It added that, either way, China will “remain off track against its 2025 ‘carbon intensity’ target [energy consumption per unit of GDP], which requires emissions cuts of at least 2% in 2024 and 2025, after rapid rises in 2020-23”.

MISSING TARGETS?: Official data reported by state news agency Xinhua also hinted that China may fail to meet its “energy intensity” target, with China’s electricity consumption growing 7.9%, faster than the GDP growth rate of 4.8% so far this year. Meanwhile, China’s top planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, continues to prepare for the switch from “dual control” of energy – covering energy use and energy intensity –to “dual control” of emissions, issuing a new work plan on establishing a “national-level and provincial-level carbon reporting system” by 2025, said China News. (Read more about the switch to “dual control” of emissions in a previous China Briefing.) 

EU’s EV tariffs entered into force

STEEP TARIFFS: The EU’s new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) kicked in on 30 October, after talks between Brussels and Beijing failed to find an amicable solution to the months-long trade dispute, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported. The final duty rates for the next five years were confirmed at between 7.8% and 35.3% – on top of a baseline 10% that applies to all EV imports – depending on whether the relevant firm is deemed to have cooperated with the EU probe, said the newspaper. (Read more in Carbon Brief’s Q&A on the global “trade war” over China’s booming EV industry.)

REACTIONS: The Associated Press quoted European Commission executive vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis defending the move: “We’re standing up for fair market practices and for the European industrial base. In parallel, we remain open to a possible alternative solution that would be effective in addressing the problems identified and (World Trade Organization)-compatible.” The Chinese government said it has “repeatedly pointed out” that the EU’s move was “unreasonable and non-compliant”, adding that it did “not agree with or accept the ruling”, according to Xinhua. China has “filed a complaint” with the WTO, said business news outlet Yicai.

Steel ‘overcapacity’ persisted

STEEL SLOWDOWN: The latest data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed China’s steel sector is among sectors “bearing the brunt of the nation’s economic slowdown”, reported Bloomberg. The outlet said the steel industry had seen cumulative losses of 34bn yuan ($5bn) in the first nine months of the year, while the oil sector saw losses of 32bn yuan ($4.5bn). Xinyi Shen, China team lead at the CREA, said in a LinkedIn post that steel sector losses continued in the third quarter despite a “significant production cut”. The losses illustrated “persistent structural overcapacity” in the sector, Shen wrote. With global markets shifting towards “greener and more efficient production practices, China’s steel industry must adapt and innovate for sustainable growth”, she added. 

STEEL RETROFITS: Meanwhile, more than 140 steel enterprises, whose steelmaking capacity exceeded 620m tonnes, completed “ultra-low emission retrofitting” over the period January to August 2024, according to data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), state broadcaster CCTV reported. It added that the CISA had set new standards for “low-carbon emission steel” and said that deployment of “high-grade steel materials” can cut carbon dioxide emissions by 1.35bn tonnes (GtCO2) by 2030. 

STEEL RECYCLING: Meanwhile, China launched a state-owned resources recycling company that “risks weighing down demand for metals, reported Bloomberg. China Resources Recycling Group will recycle steel scrap, as well as batteries and plastics, among other materials, the outlet said. The initiative has support from president Xi Jinping, said state news agency Xinhua. State-run newspaper China Daily anticipated the company would recycle 260m tonnes of scrap steel and iron annually. A recent action plan for the manufacturing industry by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also set a goal for recycling 62% of “bulk industrial solid waste” by 2030, with 20% of “short-process steelmaking” relying on recycling, reported CCTV. The plan also said that, by 2030, the output of “green factories” will account for more than 40% of the total manufacturing value, added the state broadcaster. Lauri Myllyvirta, author of the above-mentioned emissions analysis for Carbon Brief, described the move as “very important” on LinkedIn, adding that steel was China’s second-largest emitting sector and had the potential, via increased recycling and other measures, to cut its emissions by “by a third or more over the next decade”. 

Xi told BRICS to advance ‘low-carbon transformation’

KAZAN DECLARATION: The BRICS group of nations that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – a bloc representing around 37% of global GDP and 42% of greenhouse gas emissions – issued a joint statement “reiterat[ing] that the objectives, principles and provisions of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), its Kyoto Protocol and its Paris Agreement…must be honoured”, state news agency Xinhua reported. The agreement added that such considerations must include “its principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities”. In language likely directed towards the EU’s “carbon border adjustment mechanism” (CBAM), the nations “[condemned] unilateral measures introduced under the pretext of climate and environmental concerns”, the statement said.

‘GREEN’ BRICS: State-run newspaper China Daily said Xi told the summit that  China was “willing to expand cooperation with BRICS countries in green industries, clean energy and green mining”. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) quoted him telling other delegates: “Green is the background colour of this era. BRICS countries should actively integrate into the global green and low-carbon transformation.” The UN said secretary general António Guterres told the meeting that the BRICS could “play a greater role in strengthening multilateralism” and “urged the bloc to…boost climate action”.
BRI ENERGY PLAN: Meanwhile, a ministerial-level meeting on energy in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), convened in China by the National Energy Administration (NEA), resulted in an action plan for “green energy cooperation” between 2024 and 2029, China Daily reported. The action plan, state broadcaster CCTV said, focused on efforts to enhance countries’ ability to guarantee secure supply of “green energy”, particularly through cooperation on “hydrogen, new energy storage and advanced nuclear power”.

Spotlight 

What to expect in China’s climate pledge for 2035

The next round of “nationally determined contributions” (NDC) to the Paris Agreement, outlining countries’ climate goals to 2035, are due by February 2025.

They are also set to be an important agenda item at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan next month.

China has not confirmed when it will publish its next NDC. Several groups, including Climate Action Tracker, the International Energy Agency and the Centre for Research on Energy and Air, have set out what it would take to align China’s targets with the 1.5C limit or its existing national goals.

In this Spotlight, Carbon Brief asks leading experts what they expect to see in China’s 2035 NDC. Below are highlights from their answers. Their full responses will be published on Carbon Brief’s website shortly.

Todd Stern, senior fellow, the Brookings Institution and former US special envoy for climate change, in response to a question from Carbon Brief at a Chatham House event:

China is the most important country in the world right now, with respect to their [climate] target. I think that other major players – the US, EU, Japan, Canada, Korea, Australia – are…going to put in pretty ambitious, pretty strong targets of the kind that you want to see. 

China now accounts for 30% of global emissions and is basically peaking carbon emissions about now…if not this year then next year. People at the Asia Society and elsewhere have done analysis…basically saying that, in order to be where we need to be, we need to see something like a 30% reduction from China. I am sure this is certainly not what the Chinese are thinking of at the moment, but we’ll see how much of a chance there is to move. If the Chinese come in with a 5-10% target, it will be very bad.

Yao Zhe, global policy advisor, Greenpeace East Asia:

So far, Chinese policymakers have taken a cautious approach, obviously constrained by the challenges in the domestic economy. But, in fact, stronger climate action and more ambitious targets are unmistakably an economic boon for China.

An update of the renewable energy target is expected in China’s new NDC. A stronger target for the next 5-10 years will help expand the domestic market and give industry and investors the confidence they need. It will also lay the groundwork for an ambitious NDC…However, China’s clean-energy potential can only be fully realised with clearer plans to move away from fossil fuels…The new NDC should address this by committing to no new coal power.

Anders Hove, senior research fellow, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies:

China’s past NDCs have tended to reflect trends underway and highlighted concrete targets that are already on-track to be met, rather than adopting ambitious new goals…A modest NDC would likely highlight targets related to renewable energy as a share of electricity production, continued steady growth in wind and solar capacity, and possibly electric vehicle adoption.

Byford Tsang, senior policy fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations: 

A reading of policy signals from the recent past suggests that China’s upcoming climate target is going to be conservative: coal-plant approvals spiked in the years following a pledge to “strictly limit” coal power; official data showing that China is on-track to miss its own 2025 carbon intensity targets; and the country’s top energy agency has proposed an annual installation target that would slow down clean-energy deployment.

Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub, Asia Society Policy Institute:

At least three variables will determine the quality of China’s headline commitment: the quantum [the minimum amount] of emissions reduction; the base year from which emissions will be reduced; and the sectoral and greenhouse gas coverage…Chinese decision-makers could plant ambiguities in any, none, or all these variables.

Some believe China will adopt its emissions peak as the base year for its 2035 target…This formulation could see China not specifying when and at what level its emissions will peak…[and could] make the question of when, and based on what conditions, Beijing will confirm its emission peak ever more important. Currently, Beijing’s policymakers do not believe China’s emissions have peaked.

Niklas Höhne, part of the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) and NewClimate Institute, and and Bill Hare, co-founder and CEO of Climate Analytics, and part of CAT:

Amid discussions on China setting a percentage reduction target from peak emission levels, CAT recommends basing the 2035 NDC on a historical baseline…CAT’s modelled domestic pathways indicate that China needs to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030 and by 66% by 2035 from 2023 levels to align with the Paris Agreement. A minimum 28% reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 is crucial for China to stay on-track for its 2060 net-zero target.

Hu Min, director and co-founder, Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP) and Chen Meian, senior program director and senior analyst, iGDP:

China’s new NDC is expected to reflect heightened domestic momentum for decarbonisation…The new NDC might also reflect ongoing domestic adjustments to the system for evaluating mitigation progress, such as by including a carbon-budget system. This would be an encouraging move to address absolute carbon mitigation instead of [carbon] intensity.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and senior fellow, Asia Society Policy Institute:

If it allows emissions to grow until just before 2030 and pursues slow and gradual emission reductions thereafter, China alone would use up almost the entire global carbon budget for 1.5C…As long as the policymakers think in terms of a late 2020s peak, there is little time to reduce emissions from that peak by 2035…While China needs to reduce emissions by at least 30% from 2023 to 2035…it seems more likely that the decision-makers will target a reduction that is a fraction of this, falling short of what’s needed to get to carbon neutrality before 2060.

Lu Lunyan, CEO, WWF China:

We hope China will consider setting clear and ambitious targets for total greenhouse gas emissions, including non-CO2 gases, such as methane, alongside increasing the share of non-fossil fuels, and aligning with the Paris Agreement on the path to net-zero. In addition, sector-specific decarbonisation strategies, particularly for heavy industries, transportation and power generation, will be crucial to achieving meaningful emissions reduction.

This spotlight was compiled by Anika Patel.

Watch, read, listen

US-CHINA: US thinktank the Brookings Institution said in a commentary that the “next US administration’s challenges with China on climate change are threefold”: maintaining climate progress; accelerating the US energy transition; and “continuing to press for forward movement on China’s emissions reductions efforts”.

LIU’S CONFIDENCE: At an Arctic Circle climate action summit, Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin said China was “confident” it would peak emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. 

‘GREEN’ TRANSITION: Beijing Daily published an analysis on economic reform, technology innovation and “green transition” by economist Liu Shijin, former member of China’s National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and former deputy president of the State Council’s Development Research Center.
EV COMEITITION: The Financial Times reported that Chinese EV giant BYD’s quarterly sales overtook the US’s leading EV producer Tesla for the first time.

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230 billion

TChina’s economic losses due to “natural disasters” between July and September 2024, in yuan, equivalent to $32bn, as reported by Reuters. The figure is based on data from the Ministry of Emergency Management and Reuters calculated that the loss in the third quarter of 2024 was more than double that in the first half of the year. It said total losses of 323bn yuan ($45bn) in 2024 to date were higher than the 308bn a year earlier. 

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New science 

Research on the strategy for constructing a green and low-carbon urban ecosystem under the dual-carbon strategy: a case study of Wenzhou, Zhejiang

Asia Pacific Science Press 

A new study on the city of Wenzhou, in Zhejiang province in east China, examined the “low-carbon transition of modern cities” under China’s “dual-carbon” strategy. It found that Wenzhou has adjusted its energy structure by “vigorously developing” renewable energy sources, guided local enterprises to adopt energy-saving technologies, as well as integrated the “low-carbon concept” into urban planning. The study concluded that these methods – technology adaptation, policy support as well as “talent cultivation and recruitment” strategy – are “validated” for cities’ low-carbon transition in China.

China Briefing is compiled by Wanyuan Song and Anika Patel. It is edited by Wanyuan Song and Dr Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to [email protected]