New research suggests the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue to melt this century regardless of how much the world cuts carbon emissions, locking in further sea level rise over the coming decades, reports Reuters. The study, published in Nature Climate Change, “found no matter the degree of warming this century, the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet will speed up as warmer water in the Amundsen Sea erodes ice shelves bordering the ocean”, the newswire says: “These ice shelves buttress ice further inland, acting as a cork in a bottle that stops their flow into the ocean.” The research is the first to directly simulate how ocean warming will affect Antarctic ice shelves in response to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions, BBC News says: “Amundsen Sea, off the coast of West Antarctica, will warm roughly three times faster than the historical rate through the rest of this century, the study finds…this will still happen even if humanity takes strong steps to slow warming.” Writing in the Conversation, the study authors say there is “little-to-no difference between [emissions] scenarios up to 2045”, adding: “Ocean warming and ice-shelf melting in the 1.5C scenario is statistically the same as in a mid-range scenario, which is closer to what existing pledges to reduce fossil fuel use over the coming decades would produce. The worst-case scenario shows more melting than the others, but only from around mid-century onwards.” 

The New York Times reports the comments of lead author Dr Kaitlin Naughten, who says: “It appears that we may have lost control of the West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the 21st century…That very likely means some amount of sea level rise that we cannot avoid.” Naughten tells the Guardian that “it is one impact of climate change that we are probably just going to have to adapt to, and very likely this means some coastal communities will either have to build [defences] or be abandoned”. She adds: “But we shouldn’t give up [on climate action] because even if this particular impact is unavoidable, it is only one impact of climate change…Our actions likely will make a difference [to Antarctic ice melting] in the 22nd century and beyond, but that’s a timescale that probably none of us today will be around to see.” The Independent, Associated Press, CNN, Washington Post, New Scientist and Daily Mail all cover the study.

The annual “world energy outlook” by the International Energy Agency (IEA) concludes that the world is on an “unstoppable” shift towards renewable energy, but the phase down of fossil fuels is not yet happening quickly enough to meet global climate goals, reports BBC News. The IEA “predicted renewables would provide half of the world’s electricity by 2030. But it warned that emissions were still too high to prevent temperatures rising above a key threshold of 1.5C. And the report said investment in fossil fuels needed to be cut in half,” the outlet explains. The report was “not all doom and gloom”, BBC News, says: “It praised the significant progress countries had made in expanding renewable energy and supporting consumers with the shift to electric vehicles and heat pumps instead of gas boilers.” The broadcaster quotes IEA executive director Fatih Birol saying in a press release: “The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ – and the sooner the better for all of us.” The IEA forecasts that demand for oil, gas and coal will each peak before 2030, reports the Times: “For the first time, the agency sees global demand for all three fossil fuels hitting high points this decade on the basis of stated government policies, rather than relying on climate pledges that may not be backed by concrete action.” The newspaper quotes the report saying: “A legacy of the global energy crisis may be to usher in the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.” The predicted peak “doesn’t mean a rapid plunge in fossil fuel consumption is imminent”, notes Bloomberg. It quotes the report saying these peaks could be followed by “an undulating plateau lasting for many years” without stronger climate action. The outlet explains: “Oil demand in the petrochemicals, aviation and shipping industries will continue to increase to 2050, but it won’t be enough to offset lower demand from road transport amid ‘astounding rise in electric vehicle sales’, the IEA said. China, which has for years driven the growth in global crude consumption, will see its appetite weakening over the next few years, with total consumption declining in the long run.” The New York Times and BusinessGreen have similar reporting.

Despite the progress on clean energy, the IEA expects that global emissions are still set to remain high enough to push up global average temperatures by about 2.4C this century, leading to “very widespread and severe impacts from climate change”, reports the Financial Times. As the world creeps closer to 1.5C of human-caused warming, Birol says that the upcoming COP28 climate conference in the UAE is “maybe as important” as the 2015 meeting in Paris where the target was agreed, the newspaper notes. Speaking to the Guardian, Birol says that the recent U-turn on green policies by UK prime minister Rishi Sunak would not affect the IEA’s global projections, but countries that rowed back on climate promises would harm their own economies. The paper quotes him saying: “Governments are entitled to their policy choices…But leaving aside…climate change and being a good citizen of the world, I believe the world is entering an era of clean energy technology manufacturing. They [governments] are competing with each other for pole position to create good jobs in modern industries…Countries who are slowing down in terms of pushing clean energy may well have a disadvantage in terms of their competitiveness for the next chapter of industry.”

In an interview with the Associated Press, Birol says that tensions from the war in Gaza could help accelerate the move away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy, electric cars and heat pumps. It quotes him saying: “Today we are again facing a crisis in the Middle East that could once again shock oil markets.” The newswire has Birol adding that “no one can convince me that oil and gas are safe and secure energy choices for countries or consumers” given the stress on energy markets from Russia’s cutoff of gas to Europe over its invasion of Ukraine. Bloomberg says that the IEA lowered its projections for gas consumption for a fourth straight year. The outlet says: “Europe cut demand after Russia drastically reduced pipeline flows to the region last year. Meanwhile, the US and Qatar are ramping up supplies of liquefied natural gas, helping to keep markets well supplied. The IEA now expects gas demand to peak in all forecast scenarios by 2030, with ‘little headroom remaining for either pipeline or [liquefied natural gas] trade to grow beyond then’, it said.” Recharge and Argus Media also cover what the IEA report says about the implications of Middle East conflict for global energy security.

Separately, the Hill reports that “oil prices have paused their ascent following the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas”, while the New York Times – contradicting Birol’s comments to the Associated Press – looks at how a surge in oil prices amid the war could “imperil action against global warming”.

A new assessment by a group of environmental organisations shows that, despite pledges by world leaders to halt deforestation, around 6.6m hectares of forest were lost globally in 2022 – an increase of 4% compared with 2021 – reports New Scientist. It continues: “At the COP26 summit in Glasgow in 2021, more than 100 countries – home to 85% of the world’s forests – pledged to end deforestation by 2030. But with deforestation still increasing, many countries aren’t on track to meet their commitment…However, the assessment isn’t all bad news. More than 50 countries are on track to end deforestation within their borders by 2030. For instance, rates of deforestation continue to fall in Indonesia and Malaysia.” The annual “forest declaration assessment” warns that efforts to preserve old-growth tropical forests – known for their dense carbon content and rich biodiversity – are 33% off track, with 4.1m hectares lost in 2022, says Reuters. The report authors “stressed that the annual $2.2bn in public funds channelled to projects to protect forests every year is a fraction of the investment needed”, the newswire says, with one author telling the outlet: “The world’s forests are in crisis. The opportunity to make progress is passing us by.” The Independent notes that “an astonishing 96% of forest loss is taking place in tropical regions of the Amazon, Congo and south-east Asia, where a football field of forest is lost every five seconds”. Inside Climate News notes that the report also focuses on “the equally serious problem of forest degradation – especially in the northern hemisphere, including the US, Europe and Canada, where wholescale deforestation is not as prevalent as it is in tropical forests, but logging and wildfire still inflict massive damage”. An author tells the outlet: “We hardly ever talk about the fact that forests in these regions, and in every world region, are not just being cleared, but where they are still standing, they’re losing carbon, losing structural integrity, losing biodiversity.” 

Alongside the new assessment, one of the organisations, WWF, has outlined recommendations on how the UK, and the world more widely, can get back on track to meet the 2030 target, says the Press Association. Mike Barrett, executive director for science and conservation at WWF UK, tells the outlet that “since Glasgow, since the environment act passed through parliament, the UK has failed to show leadership”, on deforestation. The newswire quotes him adding: “It has not excluded deforestation commodities from our supply chains and investments. And in the meantime, as these reports show, millions of hectares more forests are being lost.” In a comment article for the Independent, English singer and songwriter Ellie Goulding writes that “since the back slapping promises made at the Glasgow COP two years ago, we’ve lost an area of tropical rainforest twice the size of Wales”.

Chevron has announced plans to buy the oil producer Hess Corporation in a $53bn (£44bn) deal, reports the Guardian, which says Chevron is “the second American energy giant to place a vast bet on fossil fuel production this month” after Exxon Mobil’s acquisition of the shale group Pioneer Natural Resources. The all-stock takeover “will increase Chevron’s presence in oil-rich Guyana”, the newspaper says: “Guyana has become a leading oil producer in recent years after huge discoveries by Exxon, its partner Hess and China’s CNOOC, which together produce 400,000 barrels a day of crude from two offshore vessels and have said they could develop up to 10 offshore projects.” The outlet notes that while the Biden administration “has sought to hasten the shift towards renewable energy in the face of the climate crisis”, this acquisition “underlines the confidence of US oil giants that fossil fuel output will not be significantly hampered in the coming years”. The Financial Times says the “rush of merger and acquisition activity” in the US energy sector comes “as companies look to deploy the bumper profits created by the energy crisis”. It notes that the US energy majors “have bet heavily on what they argue will be the long-term resilience of oil and gas demand”, which is “in contrast to some European energy majors, such as BP and TotalEnergies, which are increasing investments in renewable energy at a faster pace than their US peers”. [The FT’s coverage of the IEA world energy outlook, above, is headlined: “IEA warns energy companies against banking on strong oil demand.”] The New York Times says the move – like Exxon’s acquisition of Pioneer – “shows that big oil companies want to invest closer to home amid rising political risks in Asia, the Middle East and Africa”. It notes: “In recent years, Chevron has increased its holdings in the Rocky Mountains and the Permian Basin straddling Texas and New Mexico.” The Times, Daily Telegraph, Hill, Bloomberg, Axios and S&P Global all have the story, while Reuters gathers the reaction from analysts and investors. The Financial Times Lex and Due Diligence columns also comment on the deal.

Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that oil giant Occidental Petroleum has “quietly ditched the world’s biggest carbon capture plant”. 

The Chinese ministry of ecology and environment (MEE) and the state administration for market regulation have jointly issued “trial measures for voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading” (also known as China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER)), reports Xinhua. The state news agency says that the policy aims “to prepare for the [re]launch of” China’s national voluntary emissions reduction scheme. Chinese business news outlet Jiemian says that the move will revitalise the CCER scheme, which was suspended in 2017, and quotes Ma Aimin, deputy director of the National Climate Strategy Center, who says the measures “no longer lists specific project scopes” eligible for CCERs, broadening the scope of relevant projects and giving the MEE greater power over approving CCER projects. Energy sector news outlet BJX News publishes the “official interpretation” of the policy, which state that the measures are “conducive to supporting the development of forestry carbon sinks, renewable energy, methane emission reduction [and] energy saving and efficiency projects”. Separately, the Financial Times says that the US failed to “bounce Brussels into its wheeze to keep out Chinese steel”, partially due to the EU’s reluctance to exempt the US from the carbon border adjustment mechanism.

In other news from China, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post says that “overcapacity” in the electric vehicle (EV) and other industries intensify economic risks as China aims for a target of approximately 5% economic growth for 2023. Bloomberg reports that China is planning to increase its “strategic stockpiles of cobalt”, a metal used to make EVs. Chinese financial outlet Yicai reports that Great Wall Motor, a Chinese privately-owned car manufacturer, has not been deterred from continuing its investment in Europe by the EU’s investigation into EVs imported from China. The Associated Press says that Chinese EVs are “winning over” European consumers. The state-run newspaper China Daily carries a commentary by Michael P Walsh, a board member emeritus at the International Council on Clean Transportation, who urges that China should “accelerate…phasing out the sale of vehicles with internal combustion engines”. 

Meanwhile, California governor Gavin Newsom has begun a visit to China with a pledge that California will “always be a partner on climate issues” with China, reports the Associated Press. An editorial in the Communist Party-backed newspaper the Global Times says that the governor’s handling of relations with China is “commendable” and that his visit is expected to “yield significant results”, including in climate change cooperation. Finally, the state broadcaster CGTN carries comments from several academics on prospects for US-China climate cooperation, with one saying “I think now China and the US are ready to continue cooperation on climate change”.

Commenting on the “heartbreaking tales of deaths, lost homes, destruction and ruined businesses” from the UK flooding caused by Storm Babet, an editorial in the Daily Mirror says that “extreme weather will occur more often as a result of human-fuelled climate change, which means how we handle it is a concern of us all”. The newspaper says that “nobody must be abandoned and left behind”, but “too regularly in the past we have heard talk but witnessed little action from inadequate ministers”. It continues: “This time we must shame them, force them if necessary, into walking the walk so people are helped to rebuild shattered lives. Highly profitable insurance companies must give fair payouts instead of penny-pinching. Petty quibbles about claims in cynical attempts to wear down householders, who funded policies in the good times to be covered in the bad, must be stopped.” The newspaper features the damage caused by the storm on its frontpage.

In related news, the Times reports that “the floods that devastated Brechin were not predicted to hit for another 60 years, according to climate change modelling by Scotland’s environmental watchdog”. The newspaper explains: “A 2021 flood risk plan from the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (Sepa) estimated about ‘440 homes and businesses’ in the Angus town would be liable to flooding ‘by the 2080s due to climate change’. But last week after heavy rain from Storm Babet, the River South Esk burst its banks, forcing the evacuation of 400 homes.” And the Daily Telegraph looks into why homes are still built on floodplains.

The West Antarctic ice sheet will continue to melt for the rest of this century, fuelling “unavoidable” sea level rise – regardless of future efforts to rein in emissions, new research finds. The study uses regional modelling to present a range of future projections of ice-shelf melting in West Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea. The authors say: “We find that rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet stability. When internal climate variability is considered, there is no significant difference between mid-range emissions scenarios and the most ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement.” The findings “suggest that mitigation of greenhouse gases now has limited power to prevent ocean warming that could lead to the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet”.