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TODAY'S CLIMATE AND ENERGY HEADLINES

Briefing date 09.04.2020
Airlines lobby to rewrite carbon deal in light of coronavirus

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News.

Airlines lobby to rewrite carbon deal in light of coronavirus
The Guardian Read Article

The aviation industry wants the UN-backed Corsia scheme for emissions offsets [see Carbon Brief’s Corsia explainer] to be amended in light of the coronavirus pandemic, the Guardian reports. Under the scheme, operators would have to offset growth in emissions above the average for 2019 and 2020, but this baseline is set to be lowered as planes are grounded by the current crisis, the paper explains. It adds: “Campaigners accused airlines of attempting to ‘dodge their obligations’, but the industry said it was ‘a matter of survival’.” The Independent also has the story, which follows on from an Unearthed exclusive published earlier this week. Axios reports that the pandemic has “prompted [a] historic drop in air travel and jet fuel demand”. It cites projections from consultancy Rystad Energy showing demand for the fuel would be some 65% below normal levels in April and May. And the Financial Times reports that German operator Lufthansa is to “permanently decommission more than 40 of its aircraft and axe its Germanwings low-cost arm, warning it will take years for the airline industry to return to its pre-coronavirus peak in passenger numbers”. The paper says the airline has “cut 95% of its flights” and cites analysts at Bernstein saying: “Clearly the company is serious about being 20% smaller in the future.”

In other coronavirus-related news, Nature asks if “the world’s most influential climate report [can] carry on?”. It interviews Valérie Masson-Delmotte, an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) co-chair, on the question of whether the next IPCC report can still be delivered on time. The magazine says: “The next big report – the IPCC’s first in about seven years – is due out next year, and is intended to guide government actions. But that timeline is already under threat due to government lockdowns, travel bans and university closures.”

The Hill reports the comments of Pope Francis, in which it says he “suggested that the outbreak of the novel coronavirus may be one of ‘nature’s responses’ to people around the world ignoring the harsh consequences of climate change”. The Pope’s comments came in an interview with the Tablet, where he was asked “if [he] saw the [coronavirus] crisis and the economic devastation it is wreaking as a chance for an ecological conversion, for reassessing priorities and lifestyles”. The Pontiff is reported by the Catholic weekly as replying: “There is an expression in Spanish: ‘God always forgives, we forgive sometimes, but nature never forgives.’ We did not respond to the partial catastrophes. Who now speaks of the fires in Australia, or remembers that 18 months ago a boat could cross the North Pole because the glaciers had all melted? Who speaks now of the floods? I don’t know if these are the revenge of nature, but they are certainly nature’s responses.” Separate coverage from BBC News, the Daily Telegraph and Bloomberg reports the findings of new research, which BBC News describes by saying: “New evidence has emerged of a link between human exploitation of nature and pandemics.”

Meanwhile, BusinessGreen reports that green finance is being seen as “integral” to the EU’s pandemic recovery plans, quoting comments from the European Commission. Clean Energy Wire reports that the German government has “largely rejected” calls from states to ease its planned coal exit, adding that the law has been held up by the crisis, but is unlikely to see major changes. In the US, Bloomberg reports that a group of 17 Republican senators “want to help coal get US bailout money”. The outlet says: “A group of powerful Republican senators wants to make sure the bailout program being administered by BlackRock Inc. on behalf of the federal government won’t leave fossil-fuel companies behind.” A feature article for E&E News via the Scientific American asks if “coal [can] survive the coronavirus”. It says that diminished demand and high prices are “putting pressure on the struggling industry”. Reuters reports that US electricity demand has fallen to a 16-year low “as offices shut and industrial activity slowed sharply with government travel and work restrictions to slow the coronavirus spread”, according to analysis from the Edison Electric Institute. The Daily Telegraph reports: “Renewables have overtaken fossil fuels as the main source of electricity in Great Britain for the first time [in the first quarter of the year] after a particularly windy season, and a slowdown in demand due to coronavirus.” Another Bloomberg article says President Trump is opposed to a plan that would “temporarily stop charging energy companies royalties for oil and gas produced on federal lands and waters, according to two people familiar with the matter”, while Reuters reports that one offshore oil company has sought royalty relief “so far”. InsideClimate News reports that the pandemic “has not stopped the Trump administration’s quest to drill for oil” in northern Alaska.

The Financial Times reports on the crisis in India, citing analyst forecasts for the economy to expand by as little as 1% this year, or even to contract by 0.5%. It says that the country’s three-week lockdown “forced nearly all of the nation’s factories to close” and adds: “[W]ith India’s coronavirus caseload still rising, New Delhi has indicated that many restrictions will remain in place, which could hinder a manufacturing restart.” Reuters reports that the Norwegian economy contracted by 14% in March – including a 36% fall for the transport sector – after a lockdown was imposed half way through the month. Another Financial Times article says EU carbon emissions have “tumble[d] during lockdowns”. Separately, Reuters reports that carmarkers are “accelerating efforts to restart factories” even though “[c]onsumer demand for vehicles has collapsed”. Axios reports that electric vehicle sales are projected to drop by 43% this year, according to the consultancy Wood Mackenzie, but that the longer-term trend “is slated to remain upward”.

Climate change could trigger sudden losses of world's wildlife – study
Reuters Read Article

Several publications report the findings of a new study published in the journal Nature, which shows, according to Reuters: “Climate change could trigger sudden, potentially catastrophic losses of wildlife in regions around the world over the coming decades, and the first waves could already be unfolding.” The newswire explains that the study “crossed-referenced climate data from 1850 to 2005 with the geographic ranges of 30,652 species of birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, fish, and other animals and plants” and found that species “can often adapt to a certain amount of warming before most members of a given ecosystem are forced out of their comfort zone at about the same threshold”. The Times says the study shows “abrupt local extinction of animals and plants could begin in some parts of the world this decade if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise”. The Guardian reports the findings under a headline quoting one of the study authors, who says the loss of natural habitats in the face of rising temperatures is “not a slippery slope, but a series of cliff edges, hitting different places at different times”. The newspaper continues: “Ocean ecosystems will be first hit, as the seas have already warmed to an unprecedented extent, and problems such as lack of oxygen and an increase in acid worsen. By the 2040s, a similarly abrupt collapse is likely to spread to the land, causing devastation among key species in Indonesia, the Amazon, India, northern Australia and sub-Saharan Africa and the Congo rainforest.” InsideClimate News quotes a study author saying: “I hope our predictions are wrong. But, increasingly, what we’re observing around us are the signs of this happening…many species are already living very near their thermal limits.” Carbon Brief also covers the new research. In related news, BBC Future Planet reports on the “ray – or rather reef – of hope” offered by a cluster of apparently temperature-resilient corals in part of the northern Red Sea.

Comment.

Addressing climate change post-coronavirus
Dickon Pinner, Matt Rogers and Hamid Samandari, McKinsey Quarterly Read Article

A lengthy commentary in “McKinsey Quarterly”, by several of the consultancy firm’s senior partners, asks if “the world can afford to pay attention to climate change and the broader sustainability agenda at this time”, given the scale of the coronavirus crisis. It answers in the affirmative, saying “we simply cannot afford to do otherwise” and goes on to argue: “Understanding the similarities, the differences, and the broader relationships between pandemics and climate risk is a critical first step if we are to derive practical implications that inform our actions.” It poses, and then attempts to answer, three questions for world leaders: what can the current pandemic tell us about climate change?; what positives and negatives will the pandemic response hold for climate action?; and what steps can be taken to align the pandemic response with sustainability?

There is a range of other commentary around coronavirus and climate change, with InsideClimate News reporting that “decades of science denial related to climate change had led to denial of the coronavirus pandemic”. It adds: “Decades of climate denial now appear to have paved the way for denial of Covid-19 by many on the right, according to experts on climate politics.” A comment for the Boston Globe by Scot Lehigh says it is “time to end populism’s war on expertise”, adding: “As serious as this [coronavirus] crisis is, we are already being confronted by another projected to have equally dire long-term consequences: climate change…The impulse of one of our two major political parties, however, has been to shrug off the expert consensus by insisting that there isn’t one or asserting that the science isn’t settled.” In the Nation, several authors argue that “coronavirus is a dress rehearsal for climate change”. They write: “We can flatten the curve on climate change, too – but only by altering the balance of power in Washington.” In New York Magazine, David Wallace-Wells argues that “the coronavirus is a preview of our climate-change future”. He continues: “The virus is a terrifying harbinger of future pandemics that will be brought about if climate change continues to so deeply destabilise the natural world: scrambling ecosystems, collapsing habitats, rewiring wildlife, and rewriting the rules that have governed all life on this planet for all of human history.” An International Energy Agency commentary offers “strategic considerations for policymakers” on the ways that energy efficiency actions can “support the goals of economic stimulus measures”. In the Guardian, Nicole Badstuber writes under the headline: “Flights are grounded – is this the moment we give up our addiction to flying?” For the New York Times, Allison Arieff argues that “social distancing gives us a rare chance to fix cities”, pointing to “emergency bike lanes…being painted in cities including Mexico City and Bogotá”, as well as potential changes such as: “[A] move to deactivate ‘beg buttons’…Anything that puts pedestrians first and cars second will have a significant impact on the quality of city life and, ultimately, the climate.” In the Independent, Ben Chapman asks if coronavirus “could…be the beginning of the end for the oil industry”.

There are several comments on the coronavirus and climate change from BusinessGreen. The first, from Eliot Whittington of the Corporate Leaders Group, says: “As we rebuild, we must avoid sleepwalking into the next crisis.” The second BusinessGreen comment says: “Any period of major disruption brings with it the opportunity for significant social change.” The third comment from the outlet says the current crisis is “test run lite of what will happen if we miss our emissions targets”. A comment for the Wall Street Journal reflects on the temporary lifting of plastic bag bans to help slow the pandemic, under a headline that says “green policies backfire against the coronavirus”.

Climate change experts: Here’s why a virtual COP26 won’t work
David Vetter, Forbes Read Article

A Forbes feature by David Vetter gathers comments from several “climate change experts” to explain why video conferencing “won’t work” for the COP26 UN climate summit, which was due to have been held in Glasgow in November until being postponed until next year as a result of the current crisis. Vetter writes: “Not only would a virtual COP allow delegates to continue to self-isolate, it would negate the tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions from thousands of attendees flying to the event. Surely such a solution would be a win-win? But experts say it’s more complicated than that.” Among others, it quotes Dr Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College saying: “Every COP there are examples of how a single intervention in a filled meeting room can sway a deadlock situation. Being present in the same room is essential in these make-or-break moments.”

Science.

The fate of carbon in a mature forest under carbon dioxide enrichment
Nature Read Article

A new study “calls into question the predominant thinking that the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks will be generally enhanced” under higher levels of atmospheric CO2. Using data from the first ecosystem-scale “Free-Air CO2 Enrichment” (FACE) experiment in a mature forest, the researchers tracked the fate of carbon as the forest responded to four years of exposure to CO2 levels raised by 150 parts per million. The findings show that although carbon uptake increased by 12%, this “did not lead to increased carbon sequestration at the ecosystem level”. Instead, “the majority of the extra carbon was emitted back into the atmosphere via several respiratory fluxes, with increased soil respiration alone accounting for half of the total uptake surplus”, the researchers say. They warn that the results “challenge the efficacy of climate mitigation strategies that rely on ubiquitous CO2 fertilisation as a driver of increased carbon sinks in global forests”.

Climate models miss most of the coarse dust in the atmosphere
Science Advances Read Article

Coarse mineral dust in the atmosphere likely has a net warming impact on the climate, which needs to be better accounted for by climate models, a new study suggests. Using dozens of measurements of atmospheric dust size distributions, the researchers find that the atmosphere contains 17m tonnes of coarse dust, which is “four times more than current climate models simulate”. Their findings indicate that models “deposit coarse dust out of the atmosphere too quickly”, the study says, and accounting for this missing dust adds a warming effect of 0.15 watts per metre squared.

The economic costs of Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change
Climatic Change Read Article

Around $67bn of the damages caused by Hurricane Harvey – which made landfall in Texas and Louisiana in August 2017 – is attributable to human-caused climate change, a new study suggests. The authors “use a probabilistic event attribution framework to estimate the costs associated with Hurricane Harvey that are attributable to anthropogenic influence on the climate system”. The results indicate that the “fraction of attributable risk” for the rainfall from Harvey was likely about at least a third with a best estimate of three quarters. With an average estimate of damages from Harvey assessed at about $90bn, applying this fraction gives a best estimate of $67bn, with a likely lower bound of at least $30bn, the study says.

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